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CPEC Turns into a Chinese Albatross on Pakistan’s neck – Asia Sentinel

Someone is jelouse :) I don't doubt China' s intentions if China wanna grab any land it will not be gawadar disputed teritory is between india and China that' would be the first to grab if China ever want plus China never capture any land in long history if we look at. So yeah let the world cry cuz the plan they been doing to counter China is not working cuz of CPEC. It's valuable for Pakistan and China for long term..
Reason why see blasts and Tehreek Taliban Afg is doing cuz india and world is frustrated they can' help it but o
to cry out loud..
 
I think we already have far better looking cities than this. You should have selected a better example.
I wish but we don't. What we have is cherrypicked areas but surrounded by vast ocean of inequity and chaos. Tunisia on the other hand is far, far, far, far more developed country than Pakistan will be for another 30 years. I know when to brag anbd I also know when to accept reality. They have a per capita over 2.5 times more than Pakistan. They spend vastly more on education, housing, hospitals than we do. And it shows. Their literacy rate is 81%.

https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/tunisia/pakistan
 
I wish but we don't. What we have is cherrypicked areas but surrounded by vast ocean of inequity and chaos. Tunisia on the other hand is far, far, far, far more developed country than Pakistan will be for another 30 years. I know when to brag anbd I also know when to accept reality. They have a per capita over 2.5 times more than Pakistan. They spend vastly more on education, housing, hospitals than we do. And it shows. Their literacy rate is 81%.

https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/tunisia/pakistan
it took us 50+ years to make... with 24 years of ignorance... And yet we have a long long way ahead... to get back those 2 decades of darkness...
Or should I say 2500 years...

-------------

One thing , I want to say to ppl...who judge a country by his infrastructure... remember it's smthing you can pay to be made... and money is not a sign of devlopment... it's only a mean for it... and we have quite a lot of exemples around us...
 
CPEC Turns into a Chinese Albatross on Pakistan’s neck – Asia Sentinel

Chinese-Workers-750x400.jpg


On Nov. 24, a federal minister told Pakistan’s Senate that 91 percent of revenues to be generated from the US$62 billion Gwadar port and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that would transport the port’s imports would go to China.

Pakistan faces repaying US$16 billion in loans obtained from Chinese banks for its development, the free-trade zone surrounding it, and all communications infrastructure, at annual rates of more than 13 percent, inclusive of 7 percent insurance charges. The Pakistan government obviously has no answers on how it will repay the loan over the next 40 years out of the 9 percent of revenues the government will retain. China expects to recoup its own cost of development of the CPEC from the first four years of earnings.

Understandably gun-shy over the one-sidedness of China’s generosity, on Nov. 15 the Pakistani government turned down an offer of assistance by Beijing for construction of the US$14 billion Diamer-Bhasha Dam in Azad Kashmir and said it would remove the project from the CPEC. The cost of the dam project has zoomed from US$5 billion to US$14 billion, with international lenders linking serious conditions with the provision of funding.

Pakistan thus is just one of several nations, including Sri Lanka, to have discovered the exorbitant conditions China is attaching to its massive One Belt, One Road bid to

“The real issue will come when some of those countries, particularly in central Asia, have to pay back some of the loans that were acquired in the Belt and Road Initiative,” Steve Tsang of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies told the Voice of America radio network. “And most of those countries will have problems paying back those loans.”

Given past practice, Pakistan will either look to the West and particularly the International Monetary Fund for loans to re-pay Chinese loans – or it will rely on Beijing for soft loans to repay the CPEC loans, thus getting caught in a vicious cycle.

In addition, what is likely to cause a lot more damage to Pakistan’s potential earning is the tax concessions and tax holidays over 20 to 40 years that Pakistan has granted to contractors and sub-contractors associated with the Chinese state-run China Overseas Port Holding Company for imports of equipment, material, plant, appliances and accessories for port and special economic zone.

According to reports, the 923-hectare free zone, which is to include factories, logistics hubs, warehousing facilities and display centers, will all be exempt both from customs duties and from provincial and federal taxes.

On the contrary, no comparable tax breaks and incentives have been provided to Pakistan’s local companies. This is likely to naturally reduce the demand for made-in-Pakistan goods because these goods, compared to Chinese goods, will be much costlier.

Even outside the free-zones, the Chinese companies’ activity amounts to disguised looting of Pakistan’s natural resources. The reason for this looting, in part, is Pakistan’s own ill-preparedness to protect its interests and revenues.

For instance, Pakistan doesn’t have a regulatory framework to oversee the export of the country’s natural resources, for example marble, allowing the Chinese companies to bypass Pakistan’s processing industries, which could otherwise be a major contributor to the country’s fast-falling value-added exports.

According to a report by the State Bank of Pakistan, Marble and Marble Products, “China is the biggest importer of marble from Pakistan; however, the marble exported to China also includes semi-processed marble, which is then re-exported from China after value addition, which is hurting Pakistan’s marble industry to a significant extent.”

It isn’t surprising therefore that Pakistan’s share in bi-lateral trade with China stood at, in 2016, US$41.9 billion as against China’s share of almost US$ 17 billion. Pakistan’s exports to China have actually fallen in value while China’s exports have increased, raising concerns that the 1,300-km Karakoram Highway linking the port to the Chinese border is a one-way street.

Besides the fact that the Chinese companies are almost operating in Pakistan as if they were operating in China, another startling concern is that these companies are bringing in shiploads of Chinese workers, and thus only rarely form genuine partnerships with Pakistani companies. Consequently, there is little or no transfer of skills or technology, which is one reason why Pakistan cannot prevent the import of marble to China as China has the right technology to process marble while Pakistan doesn’t.

That Chinese companies are bringing in their own workers is an illustration of the internal logic of CPEC whereby China is not only expanding its industrial reach, establishing new markets but also re-locating its excess labor as well. This, according to Pakistani economist Farrukh Saleem, is how China’s labor problem connects with CPEC and Pakistan: “China produces 60 percent of the global cement output. [But] domestic demand has gone down sharply, and the CPC would have to cut roughly 390 million tonnes of cement capacity. And that would mean unemployed cement workers.” Hence the imperative of re-locating this excess labor to countries like to Pakistan.

Similarly, China’s metal smelting and rolling industry, which employs 3.63 million workers, has annual production of at 800 million tonnes as against domestic demand of 400 million tonnes, indicating the need for a sharp cut in the industry and relocation of the excess labor.

As such, by 2023, the city of Gwadar alone is expected to see 500,000 Chinese workers and professionals. Accordingly, the China Pak Investment Corporation (CPIC) announced last month a partnership with Top International Engineering Corporation (TIEC), a Chinese state-owned company, to develop China Pak Hills, the first Chinese built Master Community in Gwadar that will accommodate about 500,000 Chinese by 2023.

Therefore, with Pakistan all set to take a deep plunge into ‘Chinese communism’ and create many mini-Chinas in Pakistan, hopes of reaping the benefits out of the ambitious project have largely been misplaced and a result of misguided and misperceived policy of the Pakistan government.

But Pakistan has little to no strength in its economy to refuse the Chinese capital. With its foreign exchange reserves standing at US$19 billion and with its external debts standing at US$78 billion, there appears little to no choice for Pakistan other than to jump on the Chinese bandwagon. Still, it all depends upon what Pakistan can extract out of its partnership with the Chinese. So far, however, it is the Chinese who seem perfectly placed to benefit both strategically and economically.

Salman Rafi Sheikh (kingsalmanrafi@gmail.com) is a Pakistani academic and long-time contributor to Asia Sentinel

https://www.asiasentinel.com/econ-business/cpec-chinese-albatross-pakistan-neck/





The above is a false narrative. The author forgot to mention the clause that the Chinese share of 91% would be reinvested in Pakistan and CPEC without the fear of it being usurped by corrupt Pakistani politicians/officials. Also, that Pakistan would get a nationwide, world class infrastructure and an eventual high standard of living for ordinary Pakistanis, virtually for free.

These are the same people who vehemently proclaimed in May 1998 that Pakistan would cease to exist because of economic sanctions imposed on us after our nuke teats. We all know how that ended up. Just as then, so is now...............:azn:
 
On Nov. 24, a federal minister told Pakistan’s Senate that 91 percent of revenues to be generated from the US$62 billion EUR 53 billion
Exchange Rate: EUR 1 = US$ 1.16 Gwadar port and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that would transport the port’s imports would go to China.

The 91/9% sharing is only during the concession period, at the end of which all assests will be transferred to Gawadar Port Authority.

Chinese company to share gross income with #Gwadar Port Authority
Planning Commission on Tuesday explained that China Overseas Ports Holding Company (COPHL) will be sharing gross income with Gwadar Port Authority (GPA).
Asim Khan, Spokesman of Ministry of Planning said in a statement that the Gwadar Port concession agreement was signed ten years back in 2007 with former port operating company, namely, Port of Singapore Authority International (PSAI). He said that the port and its Free Zone could not be developed by PSAI as per the Agreement on Built-Operater-Transfer (BOT) basis till 2013.
He maintained that the present Port Operator, namely, China Oversees Ports Holding (COPHC) took over the operations of the Port after commercial negotiation with the concerned authorities in 2013 without any single amendment in the agreement. Therefore, the terms and conditions were defined long before the CPEC exist. Under the agreement the port operator has to construct new port terminals with equipment, machinery, marine vessels, allied facilities on a vast area of the port.
Furthermore, the company is developing Gwadar Free Zone at an area of about 2,300 acres of land, he stated. The entire project is to be completed on BOT basis with company funding. The company will be spending around $5 billion during the Concession period up to 2048.
Asim Khan mentioned that after completion of the Concession period the entire fixed asset constructed and developed will be transferred to GPA with billions of dollars businesses operating in Gwadar Port and Gwadar Free Zone. During the Concession period GPA is getting 9% of the gross revenue from port and marine service businesses and 15% of the Free Zone businesses, he maintained.
Despite shortage of water, electricity and road connection to the port, COPHC, together with GPA, is operating the Port with losses, said the spokesman Ministry of Planning, Development & Reform.
Asim Khan expressed that despite these difficulties COPHC had been active to use its resources for the local community by giving employment opportunities, handling health problems, education and environmental protection programmes in Gwadar. He applauded the efforts of Pakistani government and said that with the strong guidance and leadership of Pakistani government and support of local communities, Gwadar Port is enjoying unprecedented quick development. It is the vision of COPHC and GPA that all the concerned authorities and stake holders may join us to ascertain the making of Gwadar Port as an economic hub of Pakistan and South Asia region.
He maintained that the Gwadar Port is the flagship project of CPEC torch-bearer of urban and industrial development of Gwadar district. Economic development of Gwadar as well as the southern regions of Balochistan province largely depend on smooth progress of work in Gwadar Port area.
The benefits to the district and the province would be much more than the expected revenues from the port. Therefore, all such generalisations and uninformed views expressed in the media about the Port Concession Agreement are refuted.


I wish but we don't. What we have is cherrypicked areas but surrounded by vast ocean of inequity and chaos. Tunisia on the other hand is far, far, far, far more developed country than Pakistan will be for another 30 years. I know when to brag anbd I also know when to accept reality. They have a per capita over 2.5 times more than Pakistan. They spend vastly more on education, housing, hospitals than we do. And it shows. Their literacy rate is 81%.

https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/tunisia/pakistan

And also they do not reproduce rabidly like Pakistanis do..doubling the population every next generation.
 
I know one thing, 5 years from now Gwadar face will be changed for ever. Pakistan could never afford to do that in short term. Pak can't even afford something as important as dams to store water so imagine building whole new city.

Despite shortage of water, electricity and road connection to the port, COPHC, together with GPA, is operating the Port with losses, said the spokesman Ministry of Planning, Development & Reform.
Asim Khan expressed that despite these difficulties COPHC had been active to use its resources for the local community by giving employment opportunities, handling health problems, education and environmental protection programmes in Gwadar.

As expected they are in loss and this will continue to be the case for long time. Pakistan isn't missing out on profits and neither sharing losses while Gwadar port is being developed.
 
On Nov. 24, a federal minister told Pakistan’s Senate that 91 percent of revenues to be generated from the US$62 billion Gwadar port and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that would transport the port’s imports would go to China.
BS. 91 percent of the revenue for 40 years is the figure for the Gwadar port only and not for every single project under CPEC.

In addition, what is likely to cause a lot more damage to Pakistan’s potential earning is the tax concessions and tax holidays over 20 to 40 years that Pakistan has granted to contractors and sub-contractors associated with the Chinese state-run China Overseas Port Holding Company for imports of equipment, material, plant, appliances and accessories for port and special economic zone.

According to reports, the 923-hectare free zone, which is to include factories, logistics hubs, warehousing facilities and display centers, will all be exempt both from customs duties and from provincial and federal taxes.
This is my biggest concern about these projects. If we are not going to get any taxes out of these economic zones and if the Chinese are going to follow their present policy of using Chinese labor then what are we actually gaining out of this. They will be using our land and our infrastructure, we will be responsible for their security so that will cost us a lot, and they won't be paying taxes and will not be creating any jobs for the locals so what is the point of allowing such economic zones.

While I do understand that we need to improve the quality of our human resource, but it is not like you can't find 5 hundred thousand skilled Pakistanis to complete these projects. After all we are providing millions of skilled labor to Gulf and South East Asia e.g S.K etc.

But Pakistan has little to no strength in its economy to refuse the Chinese capital. With its foreign exchange reserves standing at US$19 billion and with its external debts standing at US$78 billion, there appears little to no choice for Pakistan other than to jump on the Chinese bandwagon. Still, it all depends upon what Pakistan can extract out of its partnership with the Chinese. So far, however, it is the Chinese who seem perfectly placed to benefit both strategically and economically.
Well now the Forex reserves have dropped down to $13 Billion and external debts have ballooned to $87 Billion so yeah this is truly a crisis.

I am not against CPEC, if it was executed with long-term planning on our part it could have improved our economy dramatically. For example if the government would have launched youth skill improvement programs inline with the requirements of the projects that will be launched in CPEC, before hand, and made it mandatory for the Chinese firms working on these projects to employ Pakistanis, it would have improved our employment issue.

Perhaps I am naive and somebody can enlighten me about the actual benefits of CPEC, but the way I see it, we are not getting taxes, we are not getting new jobs, we will be paying billions of dollars for the improvement of infrastructure that will be used by these Chinese economic zones, that will in turn reduce the cost of the products they create and increase their profitability. Any local industry trying to compete with these Chinese firms will be blown away, as they will be paying taxes which will actually increase now as we have to pay back these loans hence increasing the cost of their products, this will be disastrous for an already ailing industrial sector.

If not handled with care, this will not only adversely affect our economy but also create resentment against Chinese among the Pakistani public and hence affect our relationship with our only ally.
 
lol. USA got free air base in Pakistan until they attacked a post on Pak afghan border at least China is Paying. Now question about China in Pakistan is that the local Pakistanis think China as of brothers and not foreigners. Pakistanis have no problem with China. Now China is paying for the port but if China would have asked a free access to the port trust me Pakistan would have given that. Pakistanis love Chinese and they love Pakistan. Pak-China friendship is not based on mutual issues but rather it is on a cultural and traditional relation that dates back to the times of original silk road route. China has helped Pakistan on many occasions at it's personal cost. Now lets make it simple this is a military alliance and friendship of cultures. Tomorrow if for any reason China and USA go to war Pakistan will always stand with China, if the Gov will go against the Pakistanis will over through the Gov now I made this statement to provide the actual sentiments of Pakistani people towards China and similarly the same case goes for Turkey. It is that Pakistanis mentally accept Chinese as partners. Many Pakistanis will be divided on USA or any other nation but on Chinese Pakistanis have good views and stand united to be a friend. It is a blessing China is paying for the Port Pakistan would have given it for free.

My suggestion to the world is cry a river build a bridge and get over it. Pakistan China relation is not gonna break.
Yehhhh. When the 500,000 Chinese have moved to Gwadar in swanky new city by 2023 I will visit Gwadar and buy a apartment there. Then go enjoy some real Chinese food. Can't wait. I am hoping Cathay Pacific or Chinese Airlines do flights from UK to Gwadar. And I suspect 1,000s of other Brittish-Pakistanis will folow suit.

Great times ahead ... :china:
It's like asking Beni Istail to stay back with Pharaoh and not to join Moses (PBUH) at the pass-over!!! Pak's mortal enemies are getting maniacs!!!!
 
In a word, Pakistan is the best brother, India is the best customer.
So, you mean Chinese Big Brother will mooch Pakistan's goodies and sell them cheap to India. Thats wonderful. BTW, your best customer is USA.
 
E94naUf.png

The decisive factor in CPEC is not going to be interest rates, the industries. business practices, roads, repayments but something more in the arena of politics. Down the road I can guarantee that we will see a Chinese versus Mullah standoff. As more and more Chinese move into Pakistan CPEC will begin to take off. This will lead to more Chinese moving to Pakistan. The more Chinese will be measure of success.

However this will start a ticking bomb. At some stage, somewhere some Chinese are inadvertantly going end up falling foul of some Mullah who will then launch a demonstration like they did in Faizabad recently. This will place the Chinese against the Mullahs. The former will not give in a inch. Then the federal government will get involved because of Chinese pressure. The Chinese will expect a robust action. How this then plays out will decide the fate of CPEC. If the Chinese lose out they will gradually lose interest in long term plan and then just focus on the short term to recuperate their investment. Long Term investment will fizzle out. By way of example we may use the Lal Masjid incident of 2007 as a pointer to the future. Quote -


Students at the Red Mosque's two affiliated seminaries launched a campaign for Shari'a, occupying a nearby children's library and embarking on vigilante raids through the capital to stop what they called "un-Islamic activities," such as DVD vendors, barber shops and a Chinese-run massage parlor that they accused of being a brothel.[21]

On 27 March 2007, female students from Jamia Hafsa kidnapped three women, who they accused of running a brothel, and seized two policemen.[23] All of the women were released after supposedly confessing to running the brothel and were shown on the television wearing burqas. Also due in part to an intercession from the Chinese Ambassador, Luo Zhaohui.[24]


top02.jpg

ISLAMABAD, June 23: The government on Saturday averted a near ‘diplomatic disaster’ between Pakistan and China by securing the release of nine Chinese nationals, six of them women, who were abducted by the Lal Masjid brigade form a massage parlour.
Islamabad remained in the grip of intense diplomatic and security activity, with the Chinese envoy pleading the case of the abducted women and men with highly-embarrassed government functionaries.

https://www.dawn.com/news/253217/chinese-hostages-freed

Thus far we can have all the shenanigans within Pakistan but because Pakistan is islolated from the external world - something obvious by the limited foreign airlines operating in Pakistan despite being a country of 200 million people. However with CPEC Pakistan will open up to lots of Chinese. In this scenario it is only matter of when not if that the Chinese end up tripping on the Mullah trap. As we know it does not take much for that to happen. The Lal Masjid incident is a reminder of that.

With huge deluge of Chinese the chance of another similiar standoff taking place will be on the cards. Exactly how this then plays out will decide the fate of CPEC. Success or it will fizzle out. We will find out in time. The clock is ticking.
 
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First of all you have fabricated and added the lie...no where did it say that there will be no jobs for Pakistanis. 500k Chinese professionals means at 5 times more Pakistani professional and workers will get the jobs. Secondly, that's none of your business so get the fcuk out of here. We know how "concerned" you are for Pakistan. Though I'm sure your flags are not true.
First, you asked me to prove Pakistani's on PDF were rejoicing on Chinese giving 500k jobs, in Pakistan, to Chinese workers exclusively. Then you say 500k Chinese jobs= 2.5 mil Pakistani jobs?

poor Sweden with that brain drain it's... :toast_sign:
 
E94naUf.png

The decisive factor in CPEC is not going to be interest rates, the industries. business practices, roads, repayments but something more in the arena of politics. Down the road I can guarantee that we will see a Chinese versus Mullah standoff. As more and more Chinese move into Pakistan CPEC will begin to take off. This will lead to more Chinese moving to Pakistan. The more Chinese will be measure of success.

However this will start a ticking bomb. At some stage, somewhere some Chinese are inadvertantly going end up falling foul of some Mullah who will then launch a demonstration like they did in Faizabad recently. This will place the Chinese against the Mullahs. The former will not give in a inch. Then the federal government will get involved because of Chinese pressure. The Chinese will expect a robust action. How this then plays out will decide the fate of CPEC. If the Chinese lose out they will gradually lose interest in long term plan and then just focus on the short term to recuperate their investment. Long Term investment will fizzle out. By way of example we may use the Lal Masjid incident of 2007 as a pointer to the future. Quote -


Students at the Red Mosque's two affiliated seminaries launched a campaign for Shari'a, occupying a nearby children's library and embarking on vigilante raids through the capital to stop what they called "un-Islamic activities," such as DVD vendors, barber shops and a Chinese-run massage parlor that they accused of being a brothel.[21]

On 27 March 2007, female students from Jamia Hafsa kidnapped three women, who they accused of running a brothel, and seized two policemen.[23] All of the women were released after supposedly confessing to running the brothel and were shown on the television wearing burqas. Also due in part to an intercession from the Chinese Ambassador, Luo Zhaohui.[24]


top02.jpg

ISLAMABAD, June 23: The government on Saturday averted a near ‘diplomatic disaster’ between Pakistan and China by securing the release of nine Chinese nationals, six of them women, who were abducted by the Lal Masjid brigade form a massage parlour.
Islamabad remained in the grip of intense diplomatic and security activity, with the Chinese envoy pleading the case of the abducted women and men with highly-embarrassed government functionaries.

https://www.dawn.com/news/253217/chinese-hostages-freed

Thus far we can have all the shenanigans within Pakistan but because Pakistan is islolated from the external world - something obvious by the limited foreign airlines operating in Pakistan despite being a country of 200 million people. However with CPEC Pakistan will open up to lots of Chinese. In this scenario it is only matter of when not if that the Chinese end up tripping on the Mullah trap. As we know it does not take much for that to happen. The Lal Masjid incident is a reminder of that.

With huge deluge of Chinese the chance of another similiar standoff taking place will be on the cards. Exactly how this then plays out will decide the fate of CPEC. Success or it will fizzle out. We will find out in time. The clock is ticking.
Why can't we declare Gwadar as a liberal city and exempt it from traditional laws with zero tolerance policies by the army against any dharnas and the likes. Army has guaranteed security for CPEC so it would be under that mandate as well. It would be akin to the UAE model where different states have different laws.
 
You're gonna see that Chinese businessmen wear local style cloth and visit Mullas with gifts, he may promise to help Mullas and his followers to dig some wells and provide them clean waters, this is a true story happened in Balochistan in the past. Chinese are good at turning a bad thing into a positive thing for both sides, in Chinese culture, danger and opportunity is two sides of the same coin.

The most funny thing you probably find is, some Chinese businessman will learn Qu'ran and talk about Islam with Mullas, and he even can convert to Islam, finally, they become ally of Mullas!

Forget to rely on Chinese to help you resolve the *Mulla Dilemma*. :D:D:D
 
If 500.000 Chinese pour into Gwadar...this is a huge number, really. We have to take into account that some of the Chinese workers will come with family to Pakistan. The actual figure could become much higher.
 
You're gonna see that Chinese businessmen wear local style cloth and visit Mullas with gifts, he may promise to help Mullas and his followers to dig some wells and provide them clean waters, this is a true story happened in Balochistan in the past. Chinese are good at turning a bad thing into a positive thing for both sides, in Chinese culture, danger and opportunity is two sides of the same coin.

The most funny thing you probably find is, some Chinese businessman will learn Qu'ran and talk about Islam with Mullas, and he even can convert to Islam, finally, they become ally of Mullas!

Forget to rely on Chinese to help you resolve the *Mulla Dilemma*. :D:D:D

Chinese in Karachi have already done that. They speak our language and wear our clothes.
 

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