China population: concerns grow as number of registered births in 2020 plummet

[ILC]

• China saw 10.035 million new registered births last year, according to the Ministry of Public Security, down from 11.79 million births in 2019
• The new figure does not include the entire population, with total data expected to be released in April by the National Bureau of Statistics

The world’s most populous country has yet to confirm its official birth rate figure for the coronavirus-hit 2020, although expectations are for a further decline after Chinese mothers gave birth to 14.65 million babies in 2019. Photo: Xinhua
Concerns over the outlook for China’s population have grown after the number of newborns recorded in the country’s household registration system declined 15 per cent during a coronavirus-hit 2020.
Last year, a total 10.035 million of newborns were recorded in the household registration system, known as hukou in China, down from 11.79 million in 2019, according to figures released by the Ministry of Public Security on Monday.
The figure is not China’s official birth rate for 2020 as the hukou system does not include the entire population, but adds to data released by
some Chinese provinces for last year,
which showed in some regions that birth rates declined more than 30 per cent in 2020 from a year earlier.
The world’s most populous country has yet to confirm its official birth rate figure for the coronavirus-hit 2020, although expectations are for a further decline after Chinese mothers gave birth to
14.65 million babies in 2019,
which was the lowest level since 1961 and down from 15.23 million in 2018.

We need not anticipate further that the birth population in 2020 will drop significantly compared with 2019. The collapse of the newborn population is really hereJames Liang

China’s National Bureau of Statistics has said it will publish some preliminary data from the
once-in-a-decade population census
conducted at the end of last year in April, including population and birth figures for 2020.


Analysts expressed concern about the preliminary reports of the declining birth rate.

“Although we cannot deduce the decline in the birth population in these regions as the annual decline in the country, we consider that idea of having two children is weak and the number of women of childbearing age has decreased, so we need not anticipate further that the birth population in 2020 will drop significantly compared with 2019. The collapse of the newborn population is really here,” said James Liang, a research professor of applied economics at the Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, in a blog post last week.
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He added that the figures from the provincial governments pointed to the growing evidence that China has fallen into a “low fertility trap”.

Within the latest data released by the Ministry of Public Security, 5.29 million boys were born last year, accounting for 52.7 per cent of registered births, compared with 4.745 million girls.

A hukou is a household registration document all Chinese citizens must have that controls access to public services based on the birthplace of the holder, but some citizens opt not to register partly due to the possibility of heavy fines for breaking the previous one-child policy which was scrapped in 2015, allowing couples to have two children.

So, while the figures published by the public security bureau or the individual provinces are not comprehensive enough when it comes to accessing China’s overall birth rates, the decline in newborns highlights the magnitude of the problems that come with a rapidly ageing population, including a shortage of workforce and additional pressures placed on the
pension and health care systems.
“The ageing population
and declining birth rate are one of the largest grey rhino [risks] in China. Due to the long-term implementation of the family planning policy, China’s population crisis is approaching, and the economic and social problems brought about by it have become increasingly severe,” said Ren Zheping, chief economist with the Evergrande group in a research note last week.

“The comprehensive two-child policy has not only failed to introduce a baby boom, but a fertility cliff.”
How the gravity of greying will affect nation’s plans to boost economy
3 Dec 2020

In eastern China, a number of thriving cities with large inflows of migrants all showed drastic falls in newborns last year.
Hefei, the provincial capital of Anhui province, reported 79,300 newborns in 2020, down 23 per cent from a year earlier, according to a report from the city government.
In the city of Guangzhou, the provincial capital of southern economic powerhouse Guangdong province, the number of newborn babies fell to the lowest level in nearly a decade, said a report in the state-run Guangzhou Daily.

Some 195,500 babies were born in Guangzhou in 2020, down around 17 per cent from 2019, and 33 per cent below 2017.

The report added that the declining trend in the city broadly mirrored the situation for the whole province, which in 2019 recorded 1.43 million newborns – the most births among all provinces.
“The rapid ageing of the population not only leads to a decline in the rate of return on investment, but also has the potential effect of causing a decline in the savings rate,” Cai Fang, the director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote last week in a blog post.
“In the short and medium term, it’s difficult to change to the trend of population ageing. However, timely adjustment of fertility policies and realisation of independent family planning will help form a more balanced population structure in the future and reduce volatility in the savings rate.”

What happened to China's number of registered births in 2020?

China saw 10.035 million new registered births last year, according to the Ministry of Public Security, down from 11.79 million births in 2019, adding to population concerns in the world’s most populous country.

www.scmp.com

@Mista
What do you think? These are all births before inflating them like we counted last time? 11.79 m by these numbers in 2019, but total numbers after correction are 14,65m in 2019.

 

[Type59]

Encourage people to live a more active lifestyle and raise retirement age. Having more kids is not a solution to an aging society. People assume kids will look after parents in old age?

 

[PakistaniAtBahrain]

Encourage people to live a more active lifestyle and raise retirement age. Having more kids is not a solution to an aging society. People assume kids will look after parents in old age?

every country needs to produce enough kids to replace the current existing population. otherwise its a disaster and that society and its economy will be destroyed.

 

[Indos]

Encourage people to live a more active lifestyle and raise retirement age. Having more kids is not a solution to an aging society. People assume kids will look after parents in old age?

Yup, it is still being practiced in Indonesia until Today where our elderly will be taken care by their kids.

 

[Mista]

What happened to China's number of registered births in 2020?

China saw 10.035 million new registered births last year, according to the Ministry of Public Security, down from 11.79 million births in 2019, adding to population concerns in the world’s most populous country.

www.scmp.com

@Mista
What do you think? These are all births before inflating them like we counted last time? 11.79 m by these numbers in 2019, but total numbers after correction are 14,65m in 2019.

What was the basis that they used to revise the births upwards by almost 30% in 2019?

 

[ILC]

What was the basis that they used to revise the births upwards by almost 30% in 2019?

Idk how it was revised, the only explanation I see they might tell us is unofficial births (because of the two-child policy, when was one-child these shenanigans I guess were successful, with two-child it is too fake), but I guess these days, in reality, unofficial births are at best in hundreds of thousands.

I think these are the numbers when we were talking about last time when NBS statistics and the ministry of family planning statistics were different. Someone is really trying to mask the policy failure, they want to save their butts, but the death penalty is unavoidable. I guess soon many heads will be flying.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

every country needs to produce enough kids to replace the current existing population. otherwise its a disaster and that society and its economy will be destroyed.

No. The other way around. Population should be encouraged to be reduced. High population is unsustainable on the environment. But there is another issue. Quality of human life. The lower the number of workers the economy is forced to invest on the limited manpower to create a highly productive, educated workforce. Meaning a rocket engineer is worth more than a taxi driver or show polisher. But then I hear you say we all can't be rocket engineers. Who will drive taxis? Who will polish shoes? Well maybe in the 21st century it is time for technology to do such tedious, low paying jobs. Meaning as cheap labour force numbers drop the economy is forced to INVEST in technology to compensate for that. What is the main differance between Third World and developed world? So many jobs you see in the Third World are done by machines.

As we move forward this process of technology replacing mundane jobs should speed up. But it won't if you have loads of cheap labour lying around. I have seen this in UK myself. In mid 1990s there was huge increase in auto-car wash places. I stopped washing car at home. You just drove to these auto-places and used your card payment, parked the car and the machine washed your car.

Today we have gone backwards in UK. Since 2000s we have had millions of cheap labour pour in from Eastern Europe and illegal migrants from Middle East etc. Now many of those auto-washes places have gone bankrupt because on every empty lot a bunch of cheap migrant labour is holding brushes and pressure washers. They actually are so cheap they beat the machines.

This is not progress. How about more technology, less workers, but highly qualified to live nice lives.

 

[cloud4000]

I think quality should always be preferred over quantity. Less is more.

Besides, all developed countries face negative growth rates. The price of success, perhaps? The only to staunch this negative growth, at least temporarily, is immigration.

 

[PakistaniAtBahrain]

No. The other way around. Population should be encouraged to be reduced. High population is unsustainable on the environment. But there is another issue. Quality of human life. The lower the number of workers the economy is forced to invest on the limited manpower to create a highly productive, educated workforce. Meaning a rocket engineer is worth more than a taxi driver or show polisher. But then I hear you say we all can't be rocket engineers. Who will drive taxis? Who will polish shoes? Well maybe in the 21st century it is time for technology to do such tedious, low paying jobs. Meaning as cheap labour force numbers drop the economy is forced to INVEST in technology to compensate for that. What is the main differance between Third World and developed world? So many jobs you see in the Third World are done by machines.

As we move forward this process of technology replacing mundane jobs should speed up. But it won't if you have loads of cheap labour lying around. I have seen this in UK myself. In mid 1990s there was huge increase in auto-car wash places. I stopped washing car at home. You just drove to these auto-places and used your card payment, parked the car and the machine washed your car.

Today we have gone backwards in UK. Since 2000s we have had millions of cheap labour pour in from Eastern Europe and illegal migrants from Middle East etc. Now many of those auto-washes places have gone bankrupt because on every empty lot a bunch of cheap migrant labour is holding brushes and pressure washers. They actually are so cheap they beat the machines.

This is not progress. How about more technology, less workers, but highly qualified to live nice lives.

with a fertility rate below the replacement rate, and increasing life expectancy, the population will age and with not enough young people to replace them the society and economy is on the road to destruction. there will be high taxes on the working population and more of the budget would shift into pensions and healthcare, away from education, technology and infrastructure.

your answer to all this is robots. whether that is even viable remains to be seen. its a big if. if what you said made sense, then USA and China would be moving towards that themselves. but it isnt. China in particular is trying hard to increase the fertility rate. Russia is doing the same. even if robots could be the solution, the amount of resources needed to make all this work is something no country has. you would need a world government, one political system, one leader that rules the whole world. this is essentially communism's wet dream.

at the end of the day, an ample amount of humans will always be needed, especially if we look at it from an islamic angle. but i dont think that is going to hold much sway over you because i dont think you are much of a believer in religion from what i discern.

 

[Paul2]

Import more worker, or factory owners will export themselves.

 

[ILC]

Import more worker, or factory owners will export themselves.

But actually, any factory workers are imported beside Guangxi border? I haven't heard about any policy to import workers. For foreigners to work in China the requirements are pretty strict, bachelor's degree, work experience, etc.

 

[Paul2]

But actually, any factory workers are imported beside Guangxi border? I haven't heard about any policy to import workers. For foreigners to work in China the requirements are pretty strict, bachelor's degree, work experience, etc.

What foreigners from the West will work in China in their sane mind, beside some broke English teachers?

Bachelor degree, and work experience? Lol, you'd be better looking up criteria of places in EU or Anglophone countries.

China is by the way pretty unique in it being nearly one and only country around which does not demand language knowledge for work migrants.

Even freaking India, and Bangladesh want one.

 

[KurtisBrian]

Don't worry about it. Greece has lost almost 10% of it's population since 2011. Greece is same as before, still terrible. UK adds more and more foreigners/people, UK is in terrible condition. Once was wealthy and the envy of the world. Was usurped by those who loot and traitors. Now the UK is a mess. Young British citizens are very unhappy. Serves the traitors, right.

Young Britons have never been unhappier, research suggests

Worries over jobs, money and health produce lowest recorded results in Prince’s Trust survey

www.theguardian.com

Chinese infrastructure boom is pretty much done. don't need all those workers. Soon won't be any money to build infrastructure anyplace else so all that stuff that was built in China can be taken by Africans and South Asians who have huge young populations, built little and need homes. That is how migrant people operate. So keep making the travel routes into China wider and faster. Lots of people will eagerly move to take, replace and keep the population of China from falling.

 

[Gangetic]

Most developed countries have birth rates below replacement level. Even mid-income countries like Eastern Europe are facing labour shortages.

 

[letsrock]

10 million is shockingly low. US which has less than one fourth of chinese populaiton has nearly 4 million.

Don't worry about it. Greece has lost almost 10% of it's population since 2011. Greece is same as before, still terrible. UK adds more and more foreigners/people, UK is in terrible condition. Once was wealthy and the envy of the world. Was usurped by those who loot and traitors. Now the UK is a mess. Young British citizens are very unhappy. Serves the traitors, right.

Young Britons have never been unhappier, research suggests

Worries over jobs, money and health produce lowest recorded results in Prince’s Trust survey

www.theguardian.com

Chinese infrastructure boom is pretty much done. don't need all those workers. Soon won't be any money to build infrastructure anyplace else so all that stuff that was built in China can be taken by Africans and South Asians who have huge young populations, built little and need homes. That is how migrant people operate. So keep making the travel routes into China wider and faster. Lots of people will eagerly move to take, replace and keep the population of China from falling.

UK is in terrible condition? who says that ?