Indian Libertarian
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Are you guys still considering that this will be a quick Russian victory? I think Russia will prevail with time but time is what they’re lacking.
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It's decision time for Russia. If Putin turns his back on Europe, will enter an irreversible road. He will confirm China as the new leader(on every aspect) of the east, and Russia's dependence on China will now become a vital necessity.
Well. We agree to disagree about the China angle. And yet your post overall suggests my understanding of the strategic environment. My understanding is that Russia's decades old 'strategic ambiguity' is gone now and it is firmly in the Chinese camp. My understanding is that anything happening in Europe or the Middle East or anywhere except the Pacific region which ties the Western resources is to China's advantage. China wouldn't necessarily want this conflict but now that it has started China knows where its interest lie and Chinese members here would confirm that. There are really such things as the Zero Sum Gains!
You have surprisingly played up Ukraine as an ally of China. Ukraine is peanuts for China compared with Russia! Heck, Ukraine is peanuts for even Pakistan compared to the advantages gained by China and Russia. Maybe Ukraine is just a bag of peanuts
And in another post, you brought up nukes as a reason China would stop Russia. What an odd thing to say??!!! Russia is not going to use nukes. It can conventionally flatten and totally destroy Ukraine IF and WHEN Putin is really cornered. The nukes are for the West to be aware of the ultimate costs and to back off. A blackmail to let the West be mindful of where things could end up but as of now a very far fetched idea.
If they capture Kyiv in day 2 like they were set out to be, then it was a quick Russian Victory. It's day 5 already, and we are still seeing Ukrainian jet in the sky.....Are you guys still considering that this will be a quick Russian victory? I think Russia will prevail with time but time is what they’re lacking.
Unable to link Telegram for some reason. Here is the textCan you post link again? It won't work. I'd like to read it.
Seems like America would ask for something in return. Probably European assistance in Asia in exchange for more resources put into Europe.What you present here is the corundum of this whole spectacle. A war on the eastern front of NATO is the least thing Europe needs right now. Heck its even more a headache for America. Biden has been a mere reactive figurehead. If there is a long-term mastermind strategy behind deeper US-involvement in Europe, it would be be a interesting reading (sincerely).
Russia may loose this war but thats nothing because Russia will lick its wounds and be even more determined to have its revenge. Not that the West should be or is afraid of that, but no doubt it will distract and divert resources from more important theaters.
I hear suggestions here that increased European defence budget will be enough to evaporate Russian millitary posture. Which may or may not be reality, as we have to wait 10 years to see the results. But this still dosent adress the real problem, because America still would be looked up to for overall leadership of NATO. US may delegate some responsibilities to major powers like Germany France and UK, but is that really a ideal situation, from purely political standpoint?
Is it realistic? What is NATO going to look like if America is forced to reorient its attention and resources to the Indo-Pacific theater?
Freedom fighter ? An Al Qaeda or "Muslim" Brotherhood criminal calls himself a freedom fighter ? And it no surprise that Western mainstream media will celebrate AQ and MB criminals.
Yes I will, thank you.
This does not brew right with the Chinese perspective though.
Chinese perspective is that they do not engage in other nation affair, unless China stance is for Ukraine not to be a sovereignty, this is going to be tough on China isolationist view. The Problem is, Ukraine is (or was or whatever) Chinese main Strategic partner with their help on Chinese Carrier and Fighter plane design. Would they betray Ukraine like this for a no-gain posture with Russia?
China is smart not to fully support Russia on this.