Lets get back to topic. Here are my thoughts:
The Xinjiang water diversion is part of the Western section of the ambitious South-North water diversion project.
The divide between Southern China and Northern China's ecosystem can be characterised by the two main river systems in China the Yangtze/Changjiang (South) and Yellow River/Huanghe (North). The Yangtze/Changjiang river and its tributaries receives substantially more rainfall compared to its northern brother resulting in a healthy continuous flow. The Yellow River and its tributaries on the other hand is in a dryer region. This causes the Yellow River to have discontinued flow with exposed river bed at points in the year. A big reason why Yellow river has broken flow is not just the lack of water rather its the lack of plants and topsoil along its tributaries which slowly releases water after each rainfall.
Two main benefits of Rivers with a healthy flow:
1. Transportation (<half the cost than rail)
2. Agriculture (irrigation)
Yangtze River shipping. Ships transporting containers and gravel for construction.
The Yangtze is geographically situated in mountainous Southern China with few plains for agriculture (except for lowlands) thus its main benefit would be for commerce. The reason why the Yangtze delta and upstream regions are easily integrated and developed is because of the river. Goods, especially large and heavy loads can be easily and cheaply transported thus helping them integrate into a supply chain. Ex. A large windmill is to be exported overseas. The Yangzte is a suitable supply chain for such oversized loads that would be impossible to transport overland, blades can be made in Chongqing, casing made in Wuhan, motors made in Nanjing, assembled and shipped out from Shanghai. The river attracts capital due to its high ROI.
Yellow River at Qingtongxia Yellow River Grand Canyon Scenic Spot in Ningxia.
The Yellow River feeds the central plains of China an important breadbasket. Current flows are sometimes insufficient to satisfy irrigation causing farmers to deplete ground water and offers little buffer in case of drought (unsustainable). Also many sections are not navigable causing only small crafts to be used which are not useful in developing industry. The region can rely on rail and road networks but costs will be higher resulting in lower profit margins (magnified by financial leverage) and surplus to be re-invested, slowing development. In addition, the capital costs of building and maintaining rail/road networks are more expensive than river navigation.
The key component for the revitalisation of the Yellow River ecosystem is the Western route of South-North Water Transfer Project.
The project seeks to solve a few issues:
1. Reversing desertification of North West and Inner Mongolia (synergy with Great Green Wall 三北防护林)
2. Reviving the Yellow River as a navigable river and secure irrigation of the central plains
3. Birth of Xinjiang breadbasket
The foundation of the Western route is the construction of countless dams in Tibet
Map of large dams in China. Black blocks: operational, gray: under-construction, white blocks:to be constructed. First number within circle indicate MW capacity. This is a older map and some dams are under construction.
- 50 Billion Cubic Meters a year to the Yellow River would increase its flow by about 60%.
- 150 BCM Maqu Reservoir will be larger than Lake Nassar Reservoir in Egypt (132 BCM)
- 35,000 MW hydropower station (largest in the world? possibly the accumulation of multiple stations)
- Water evaporation from new rivers and reservoirs will make the region more humid and rain more frequently
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_reservoirs_by_volume
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_hydroelectric_power_stations
"Only by opening up canals can we save China", "Ideal (Great West Line)"
- Creation of reservoirs
- New very large lakes in Xinjiang and Inner-Mongolia
- River diversion to the North East bread basket
- Canals and abundance of water is viewed as a national security concern. Once the decision is made it's unlikely that any outside force can reverse the action.
If there is an emergence of the Xinjiang breadbasket, expect:
1. Higher food security in China (less imports? better/cheaper protein options)
2. Increased migration to the Tarim, Turpan, and Junggar Basins. Possibly making Xinjiang another great population cluster for China. Another great frontier 新疆域
3. Increased investment and investment opportunities in these regions
4. Creation of a new ecosystem. Due to the region being a basin, water vapour will be mostly trapped within the region possibly creating a semi-humid region in Xinjiang. This will spill over into Inner Mongolia and other parts of Western China
5. Improved security situation due to better economic opportunities in the long run. Some displacement might happen due to change in ecosystem.
6. Opportunities for hydro power, feeding industrial centres in the east.
7. Emergence of new industrial clusters in Western China resulting from cheap energy, cheap land, cheap labour, and availability of capital
Yes, there will be big impacts on the ecosystem, will the cost be worth it? will the end result will be even better than what nature can currently provide for inhabitants? What makes humans stand out from the rest of the animals that roam this Earth is that we don't settle for what nature provided for us. We are grateful but we are on an endless quest to break limits and push boundaries of possibility. Time and time again, history has shown us that when armed with the proper scientific knowledge, vision, and can-do spirit we are able to shape a better future for humanity.