What's new

World Economy Slowed as India's GDP Slightly Fell in 2012-13 in USD terms

India's GDP is 2 Trillion and recent reports shows that Indian GDP in PPP terms is third in this world.

What ever hurdles we have will be overcome in the near future. We have lot of infra projects which is aimed at manufacturing. We are also improving our trade connectivity.

Nothing to worry. The growth forecast this year is close to 6.

This kind of attitude will ensure that India's growth rate will remain at least 30% below China‘s for the next 10-20 years。

By dollars terms,the gap will be even wider。

The Indian economy is in a sh1t hole。India has exhausted all policy avenues for economic growth。

China's is a different story。It is in the midst of rebalancing and restructuring its investment-led growth with all the policy doors open:high bank reserve ratio(upwards of 20% compared with India's lowly 3-4%)、high interest rates comapred with CPI and PPI(5-6%、2%、-% respectively)、huge current account surplus(in hundreds of billions)、low fiscal deficit as a % of GDP、strict regulations limiting the purchase of properties、cars etc,and other brakes on the economy,all of which can be relaxed to drive economic growth if the government so desires。But 7.5% growth is enough considering the ongoing domestic rebalancing and shity external environment。China is in no hurry to play the role of global recovery engine:smart:。The best time to sort out your own problem is when the others are doing worse。:azn:
 
.
^^^ The problems India faces are like common cold, it just goes away with time.

On the other hand, PRC faces multi-organ failure. It has to worry, whether it will come out alive out of all this. If not, you have "commonwealth of chinese states" coming up.

And don't you preach about CRR to banking industry professionals... you don't know the facts. Do you even know what SLR is?
 
.
^^^ The problems India faces are like common cold, it just goes away with time.

On the other hand, PRC faces multi-organ failure. It has to worry, whether it will come out alive out of all this. If not, you have "commonwealth of chinese states" coming up.

And don't you preach about CRR to banking industry professionals... you don't know the facts. Do you even know what SLR is?
The rupee has completely collapsed. India has been borrowing money to fund its spending and now it has no money to repay. Investors are fleeing the country. Unemployment is soaring. Looks like the Maoists are right: regime change is inevitable in India :)
 
.
The rupee has completely collapsed. India has been borrowing money to fund its spending and now it has no money to repay. Investors are fleeing the country. Unemployment is soaring. Looks like the Maoists are right: regime change is inevitable in India :)

We have elections next year. Yes regime change is inevitable. :pop:
 
.
The rupee has completely collapsed. India has been borrowing money to fund its spending and now it has no money to repay. Investors are fleeing the country. Unemployment is soaring. Looks like the Maoists are right: regime change is inevitable in India :)

Hi HongWu .... where is the "tent" ?

:laugh:
 
.
Hi HongWu .... where is the "tent" ?

:laugh:
Keep deluding yourself...

Assertive China, Apologetic India | Business Line

June 5, 2013: During the past month, China inflicted a national humiliation on India by intruding 19 km across what has been the traditional border between Ladakh and Tibet since the 17th century. It not only forced India to pull back from its own territory in the Daulat Beg Oldi sector, but also to dismantle Defence structures in the Chumar sector.

Moreover, apart from violating all past agreements on the Ladakh-Tibet border, China’s territorial claims also violate the provisions of the Wen Jiabao-Manmohan Singh Agreement of 2005 Agreement on the Guiding Principles for a border settlement which state: “The (Sino-Indian) boundary should be along well defined and easily identifiable geographical features, to be mutually agreed upon”. India’s claims, based on historical data, also fulfil the provisions of the 2005 Agreement as they set the western borders up to the Indus River Watershed, with the Karakoram mountains forming the natural boundary. After being militarily humiliated, India chose to subject itself to diplomatic ridicule in the Joint Statement issued after the visit of the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. While the Joint Statement paid lip service to the 2005 Guiding Principles, there was no mention of the need for defining the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in accordance with these guiding principles.

Unless we insist on China furnishing its version of LAC, the Chinese will continue to stall and obfuscate, while placing our forces in an untenable position along the borders, with India meekly agreeing to pull down any defences the Chinese demand. Worse still, India agreed to accept some ridiculous and one-sided provisions which are clearly detrimental to its national interests. The most astonishing provision of the Joint Statement was the sentence: “The two sides are committed to taking a positive view and support each other’s friendship with other countries”. This, in effect, was an endorsement of Chinese policies of “low cost containment” of India.
 
.
The rupee has completely collapsed. India has been borrowing money to fund its spending and now it has no money to repay. Investors are fleeing the country. Unemployment is soaring. Looks like the Maoists are right: regime change is inevitable in India :)

India do not need a regime change. Indian people should take the advise of Lee Kuan Yew and split up into political divisions before the British united them.
 
. .
India's Nominal GDP:
2011 = 1.838 trillion
2012 = 1.825 trillion

List of countries by past and future GDP (nominal)

According to IMF, India's GDP shrank by around $13 billion. How? What happened?

Were the growth figures adjusted for previous years from the last decade?

If the above figures by IMF are correct then it would mean India's Nominal GDP will need to grow by $175 billion in 2013 to reach the $2 trillion mark!
 
.
Indian economy is a debt fuelled bubble that has burst with the Rupee collapsing. India will average around 2-3% growth over the next decade until the Indian economy has deleveraged. India has no manufacturing industry to export to have trade surpluses. Their economy has been running on debt for the last decade or so since reform has slowed. It's clear until India becomes an export powerhouse with trade surpluses, India will continue to be a debtor country.

Indian economy is going to have it very tough a decade or so. Currency collapse is the worst thing a country can experience.
 
.
India has a billion people and expected to overtake China in population. India just might be too big to fail.
 
.
India's Nominal GDP:
2011 = 1.838 trillion
2012 = 1.825 trillion

List of countries by past and future GDP (nominal)

According to IMF, India's GDP shrank by around $13 billion. How? What happened?

Were the growth figures adjusted for previous years from the last decade?

If the above figures by IMF are correct then it would mean India's Nominal GDP will need to grow by $175 billion in 2013 to reach the $2 trillion mark!

Indian rupee is continuing to decline against the US dollar to Rs. 59.52 today. At this exchange rate, India's GDP is down to $1.68 trillion, about $200 billion less than it was in Fiscal 2011-12.

Meanwhile, Pakistan's economy continues to struggle with its annual GDP rising just 3.6% to $252 billion ($242 billion at Rs. 100 to a USD exchange rate) in fiscal 2012-13, according to Economic Survey of Pakistan 2012-13 estimates based on 9 months data. The country is facing militancy and energy shortages impacting its economy.

Haq's Musings: India's GDP Shrank to $1.84 Trillion in 2012-13 in US Dollar Terms
 
.
Here's a Reuters' report on GS analyst calling investments in emerging markets a "costly mistake":

LONDON, July 4 (Reuters) - Investors who wrongly called time on U.S. economic supremacy during the financial crisis are set to pay a hefty price for betting too much on the developing world, according to a top Goldman Sachs strategist.

The U.S. investment bank helped inspire a twenty-fold surge in financial investment in China, India, Russia and Brazil over the past decade, its chief economist popularising the term BRICs in a 2001 research paper.

Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, in charge of shaping the portfolios of the bank's rich private clients, has been arguing against that trend for four years, however, trying to persuade investors and colleagues they were safer sticking with the developed world.

The past six months has substantially vindicated that view. China's boom is finally wobbling under the weight of economic imbalances including an undervalued currency, and emerging stock markets are down 13 percent compared to an 11 percent rise in the U.S. S&P 500 index over the same period.

"Many investors and market commentators have been too euphoric about China over the last decade and this euphoria is finally abating. Many just followed the herd into emerging markets and over-allocated to many of the key countries," she says.

"It is easier to be part of the herd even if one is wrong, than stay apart from the herd and be right in the long run."

The net gains for U.S. stock markets may just be a taste of the reassertion of western dominance that may emerge in the next few years, Mossavar-Rahmani argues.

Structural advantages like abundant mineral wealth, positive demographics and, most importantly, inclusive, well-run political and economic institutions make the United States the best bet going forward, she says.

"(Emerging market) investors are taking on so many risks compared with the U.S. where the risk is largely cyclical rather than structural," she says.

Many of the cyclical issues affecting the U.S. such as high levels of debt, are also on their way to being resolved.

"One thing that normally puts investors off from increasing their U.S. holdings is the long term debt profile, but we think the magnitude of the work done to address this has been underappreciated by investors," she says.

WEST IS BEST

The idea that authoritarian countries are less effective than open economies like the U.S. at incentivising entrepreneurship and innovation is long accepted in academia.

Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson laid out the case for doubting the emerging power of China and others in a book 'Why Nations Fail' last year, arguing poor institutions that entrench inequality will hamper a country's path to prosperity.

But this view was largely put aside by professional investors who allowed themselves to be swept up in a "mania" about the rewards up for grabs in emerging markets, especially China....

INTERVIEW-Emerging markets mania was a costly mistake -Goldman exec
 
.
Here's Reuters on how India is dealing with record slide of Indian Rupee against US dollar:

India is considering calling on its millions of non-resident citizens to help reverse a record slide in the rupee and does not favour the idea of a global sovereign bond at this time, senior government officials told Reuters on Monday.

However, the government strongly denied having ruled out a sovereign bond issue and said in a statement that "all options are on the table".

The officials, who spoke earlier on condition of anonymity, said India was running out of options and time to revive the currency and fund a record current account deficit but equally policymakers were wary of sending any distress signals to international markets.

Issuing a global bond might send such a signal, so instead policymakers will focus on attracting funds from Indians living abroad, such as by raising deposit rates in India or issuing bonds specifically designed for them - repeating measures carried out in 1998 and 2000 to steady a weak rupee.

The officials declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of discussing government deliberations. They were not immediately reachable for further comment.

The officials said other options included an increase in RBI policy rates and allowing select firms to raise capital overseas.

"All have agreed that it is not a time for India to issue sovereign bonds at this stage," one official said, adding that the central bank agreed with that position too.

"We do not have much options. Whatever has to be done, will be done in the next few weeks," the official said. "We have a window of only few weeks," he said.

"The government could ask banks to raise interest rates to attract an additional $15-20 billion," he said.

The news prompted the 10-year benchmark 7.16 percent, 2023 bond yield to jump 8 basis points to 8.08 percent, while the rupee ticked lower on the news that a global bond was not being considered right now.
---
India has the second-largest diaspora in the world, with a community estimated at more than 25 million, the Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs says.

Central bank figures show non-resident Indians (NRIs) held $58 billion in dollar deposits in India as of September 2012, plus local currency deposits worth 3 trillion rupees.

Since the rupee's rapid decline, inflows of money from NRIs have risen, the government official said. The currency traded at around 59.70 per dollar on Monday to be about a percent above its record low of 61.21 hit on July 8.
-----------

"The rating agencies are already watching us closely, we have to manage the situation in a subtle manner," he said.

The government's first line of defence therefore would be to woo non-resident Indians, sources said.

NRIs lapped up bonds and deposits issued by India in 1998 and 2000, helping bridge massive gaps in India's funding needs. Now, with a current account deficit at a record 4.8 percent of economic output, the country needs all the funding it can get.

The government sources said India could consider raising the repo rate, the central bank's main policy rate, if the rupee falls towards 61-62 to the dollar, citing recent meetings between the government and the RBI.

The government is also considering allowing select companies such as state-run India Infrastructure Finance Co Ltd or IDFC Ltd (IDFC.NS) to raise up to $4 billion in debt abroad, they said.

The first official said state-owned banks are likely to be asked to raise funds from overseas markets to meet their capital needs.

"Even if 5-7 banks raise $1 billion each, it will help us," he said.

India to call on millions of non-residents to defend rupee - sources | Reuters
 
.
Here's India Today on Goldman Sachs' downgrade of Indian economy:

US investment bank Goldman Sachs on Thursday downgraded its ratings on Indian stocks, calling them underweight as the rupee continued to tumbling against the dollar and economic growth remains sluggish.
The bank said the external funding environment has also become challenging causing the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to tighten liquidity.
The bank also expected corporate earnings to grow at 5 per cent for the current fiscal year and 11 per cent for the next year, below consensus estimates.
"Recent activity data in the second quarter of 2013 has been sluggish with no signs of a pick-up in investment demand... Against a backdrop of lower growth, tighter liquidity and rising macro vulnerabilities, we downgrade India to underweight," the bank said.
"Our forecast for the dollar-rupee remains at 60 for the year but we expect continued weakness to 65 through 2016. The rupee remains inexpensive relative to our fair value estimate of dollar-rupee 65 which also suggests the currency can continue to weaken," it said.
"We even think that there is a greater probability of the RBI keeping liquidity tight even beyond 6 months, and hiking policy rates as well, rather than cutting them," it said.


Read more at: Goldman Sachs downgrades Indian economy, says stocks underweight : Market, News - India Today
 
.

Country Latest Posts

Back
Top Bottom