World Agenda: Kashmir - the elephant in the room

[blain2]

It's not just Jammu. Ladakh is a predominantly Buddhist region which would choose to stay with India. And given the turmoil in Pakistan, Kashmir valley could very well vote to stay independent. But I guess Pakistan would not accept that prospect, would it?

Ladakh may stay with India. I believe Pakistan's main interest is in the Kashmir Valley. Based on what I have read/heard, Pakistan may not be averse to having an autonomous Kashmir Valley with certain key issues like defence, foreign policy etc. shared by Pakistan & India.

It's not just economic incentives and education. It's a matter of Kashmiris deciding their destiny. People typically do that by electing representatives through democratic elections. This has now happened peacefully with a decent turnout. Good governance combined with economic incentives will yield positive results.

As good as it sounds, its a tactical move for the Kashmiris participating in this issue. Their problem is that they cannot operate within the confines of the Indian constitution. This is where they break up with the rest of India.

Pakistan certainly hopes so, but India bets otherwise. The jury is still out on this one...

I agree. However given what has been happening ever since 1987, India has a huge uphill task to change the minds of the Kashmiri people.

 

[Flintlock]

Excellent analysis:

 

[blain2]

What is his point? If Kashmir and Palestine issues are resolved, then the Muslim world would not allow such groups like AQ to pursue their agenda and draw recruits. People are recruited into their ranks on the premise of doing something to set the injustices right.

I can guarantee that if the Kashmir issue was resolved, groups like LeT would be severely marginalized. The call for Jihad by such groups is adhered to by the youth because the injustices and heavy handedness is there for all to see.

I am not one to buy into Rushdie's point that groups like this will perpetuate even if their bread and butter causes are taken care of. Secondly, when such issues are resolved, then it becomes easier for Muslim states to control them because they have no popular backing.

 

[Flintlock]

What is his point? If Kashmir and Palestine issues are resolved, then the Muslim world would not allow such groups like AQ to pursue their agenda and draw recruits. People are recruited into their ranks on the premise of doing something to set the injustices right.

I can guarantee that if the Kashmir issue was resolved, groups like LeT would be severely marginalized. The call for Jihad by such groups is adhered to by the youth because the injustices and heavy handedness is there for all to see.

I am not one to buy into Rushdie's point that groups like this will perpetuate even if their bread and butter causes are taken care of. Secondly, when such issues are resolved, then it becomes easier for Muslim states to control them because they have no popular backing.

What he's saying, is that the terror groups are a force unto themselves, and they will find some cause or the other to keep themselves going as long as the Pakistani state turns a blind eye towards their activities.

Kashmir did not cause terrorism, rather terrorism is causing Kashmir.

 

[civfanatic]

India's response to Kashmir and terrorism (so called ) it faces is set piece consisting of two arguments which contradict each other
1 : When asked to resolve Kashmir issue it refuses saying that doing so would be playing into the hands of terrorists .
2 :When asked that terrorism it faces maybe due to Kashmir and hence it is imperative upon it to solve Kashmir . India comes up with argument that there is no relation between terrorism it faces and Kashmir .

 

[Contrarian]

Malay,

Excellent point with regards to others in Kashmir wanting to stay with the Indian union. This is all the more reason to let all of these folks go to a plebiscite. Alternately, Pakistan has made other offers where Jammu sticks with India and the Kashmir valley links up with the Pakistani Kashmir.

Therein lies the rub, the majority would still vote for Pakistan. Thus there cannot be a plebicite.
That was always on the table, India knows that Jammu and Laddakh stay with India and Kashmir most likely will join Pakistan. That is not acceptable. India will not let go off Kashmir mate, plebicite or not.

On the point about people ignoring Hurriyet, you have to realize that life has to go on. This problem has been going on for 60 plus years. People will not put their lives on hold because they foresee a resolution around the corner. I think you folks are over simplifying the problem by proposing economic incentives and education. The contemporary history is filled with example of separatist tendencies remaining for decades and not going away until the fundamental demand is met.

I think India will try to do her best to woo these people, but realistically it will not happen. At best you may be able to calm some of the people down, but in the long run this problem will remain.

This is precisely what GoI aims for. At one point of time, do you remember how the Hurriyat commanded tens of thousands of Kashmiri youth who did exactly what the Hurriyat called for?

Now look at them, over time, their influence has ceded greatly. Hurriyat is generally a divided lot, this time they were together, and the timing was perfect for them, when sentiments were running high over the Amarnath land row, and yet they could not achieve a simple task of having a low voter turnout, let alone boycotting it altogether. Kashmir voter turnout this time was in tune with the National Average. Imagine that suprise.

This is exactly what im pointing out, that over time, given the right conditions, people are content to let things go, the extreme emotions die down.

I bet you if there is rampant unemployement and no oppurtunities or education facilities in Kashmir, the insurgency would be back on full swing. This is just how real world functions. This generation will not live forever, one generation is replaced by another, and one not necessarily having the same ideals and priorities as the old one. If the right environment is provided the demand for separatism will keep getting reduced and muted. The young people of Kashmir might go on and will go on to become successful entrepreneurs in India, etc, etc. People have a limit, they cannot live in hardship forever to chase the goal of cessation, the militants also played no small part in them losing sympathy in the valley.

They had become as bad as the security forces, raping and looting. The militants have lost favour in the Valley.

The bottomline is that even if the separatist feeling is not completely eliminated, it will certainly get reduced by a good margin. And then again, the next generation takes over.

I hope you understand, its not in India's favour to get things resolved now.

 

[Contrarian]

I am not one to buy into Rushdie's point that groups like this will perpetuate even if their bread and butter causes are taken care of. Secondly, when such issues are resolved, then it becomes easier for Muslim states to control them because they have no popular backing.

What if the Muslim state does not want to control them?
Its Saudi funds which have backed 99% of the worlds terrorist groups. Its saudi funds which goto the madrassas to teach their wahabi version of Islam. What happens to that?

 

[civfanatic]

There are many Kashmiri's who are willing to stay with Indian Union as well. They cannot be ignored, and they are in no small a number.

Providing good education and employement will solve the problem to a great extent. I believe it, and the GoI is realizing it, and things are moving in the right direction, earlier, GoI thought inaction was the best policy in Kashmir.
Separatists have indeed suffered a HUGE setback in Kashmir this time round. They all unanimously(something new) called for a boycott of the elections, and the Kashmiri populace defied them..The entire Hurriyat was working together and yet they could not stop the people from comming out in large numbers. And this was right after the land row, as you can imagine, emotions were running high, coupled with the boycott call, and YET no effect.

Should make you look at things in more than black and white, blain.

Why do Indians always harp about a sham election which was forced on people of Kashmir . This election was never free .I cite my reasons below .
• Kashmir is the most heavily militarized place on earth. Seven hundred thousand armed personnel of India are deployed in Kashmir. So to talk of free election in presence of these is absurd
• All the pro freedom leadership of Kashmir was put behind bars hence saying that Kashmiri’s defied hurriyat is criminal. They were not allowed to put forward there point of view.
• Election to a small place like Kashmir (pop 7 mil) was held in 7 phases while India conducts the election In UP(pop 150 mil) in not more than 3 phases . This was done to bring the whole might of India in managing the election and guarantee good participation in election for propaganda purpose
• Whole Kashmir was put under curfew except for the place where voting was to happen which amounts to psychological coercion. Moreover it also denied Kashmir’s media to verify claims made by Indians on voting percentage . Since international media was already absent we can safely say that elections were held in black box and what transpired in that black box nobody from outside knows .
• Number of candidates vying for each constituency were far too many . In some cases more than 20 persons were in competition for single seat . It was obvious that a lot of money was spent to prop these candidates this was done to exploit biradari system where each candidate could at least ensure votes from his relatives and village . Even if they lost elections it was obvious that it is going to help in gaining voting percentage .
• Kashmir valley has four big urban centre’s viz Baramulla, Islamabad (anantnag ) Srinagar , Sopore . These are places where people have poltical organization to withstand coercion by India on much larger scale than small hamlets and villages . The voting percentage in these places is as follows : Baramulla 15% , Islamabad 20%, Srinagar 12%,sopore 8%. It is clear that wherever people had numbers to organize themselves effectively they boycotted the polls in large numbers .

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Kashmir did not cause terrorism, rather terrorism is causing Kashmir.

Thats patently absurd and incorrect - Kashmir was caused by the refusal to resolve the issue through political and diplomatic means for decades, not by terrorism. A proxy war and insurgency against occupation is what cam e first, and like I said before, it was a continuation of that violence and continued refusal to resolve the issue that eventually led to the some insurgent groups morphing into terrorist groups.

So Kashmir did indeed cause terrorism, and not the other way around.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

What if the Muslim state does not want to control them?
Its Saudi funds which have backed 99% of the worlds terrorist groups. Its saudi funds which goto the madrassas to teach their wahabi version of Islam. What happens to that?

The Muslim states that are being attacked by them do want to control them.

The one fallout of extremism in nations is the attempt to gain power in the host country - you see it in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and Saudi Arabia even. Where the extremism bleeds into other countries is where the extremism sees major causes, primarily due to 'western interventions', or perceived 'Muslim occupation/suppression'. That was the case for the movement of extremism into Iraq, Afghanistan, Kashmir, Chechnya, Bosnia, Sinkiang, Philippines etc.

In the majority of these cases it is the 'dispute' that drives the 'intervention by extremists', otherwise they woudl be primarily focused on overthrowing the regimes in their respective countries.

 

[Flintlock]

That's strange. Because I thought it started in 1947, when Pakistan sent Afghan Mujahideen across the border in order to wrest Kashmir by force.

 

[rahgup]

Ladakh may stay with India. I believe Pakistan's main interest is in the Kashmir Valley. Based on what I have read/heard, Pakistan may not be averse to having an autonomous Kashmir Valley with certain key issues like defence, foreign policy etc. shared by Pakistan & India.

I agree. Infact this with an open border between India and Pakistan would lead to mutual benefit. A passport should be enough for a Pakistani or Indian to visit the other country, no visa required.

Blain, we should contest elections You become the Pak PM and I the Indian one. We will solve the issue between ourselves!

The main thing is selling this solution to the people of India and Pakistan. If this were proposed as the ideal solution in both countries the governments would automatically move towards it.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

That's strange. Because I thought it started in 1947, when Pakistan sent Afghan Mujahideen across the border in order to wrest Kashmir by force.

You thought wrong then.

First of all, they were not 'mujahideen' - they were ordinary tribesmen who determined on their own the need to fight in Kashmir, which at the time was neither an independent country, nor a part of India or Pakistan (which it still isn't, but thats besides the point).

Pakistan, officially or unofficially played no part in organizing or creating that sentiment in the Tribal areas - that was the result of the massacres carried out by some of the extremist Sikh groups on the Muslims migrating into Pakistan, as well as the suppression of the local Kashmiri uprising against the Maharajah, which resulted in massive atrocities against both combatants and non-combatants, causing thousands of refugees to flee into Pakistan.

Pakistani support for the tribesmen, was extremely limited and ham handed, especially in the beginning, and came about after the Tribal movement was a foregone conclusion, and because of the concerns about the refugee situation being created due to the Maharajah's atrocities.

Read Shuja Nawaz's book, Crossed Swords for details. His book provides one of the most in depth accounts of the Pakistani role in the Tribal movement, and the subsequent Pakistan Army involvement once the IA was deployed in Kashmir.

In any case, the salient point here is that there was a completely local uprising in Kashmir against the Maharajah, entirely without any Pakistani involvement, indicating the popular discontent with the despot and his regime. The fallout of that uprising, along with the Sikh militant atrocities, is what caused the Tribesmen to rally in support of the Kashmiri uprising, and the subsequent PA involvement.

 

[Vinod2070]

What is his point? If Kashmir and Palestine issues are resolved, then the Muslim world would not allow such groups like AQ to pursue their agenda and draw recruits. People are recruited into their ranks on the premise of doing something to set the injustices right.

Not really. AQ has nothing to do with any of these issues nor the clones of AQ or Taliban. They may use such issue to inflame passions when it suits them but nothing beyond that.

How many of the AQ have really gone and fought the Israelis in the Palestinian's support? The majority of their victims are Muslims because they want to control Muslim states first and then launch their Jihad outwards.

The Taliban training videos where a little child is shown being killed by other children has nothing to do with any issue in the world except what kind of Islam those fanatics want to impose on other Muslims first and then on others. The same for the ex. Talib techer who was murdered for not lifting his salwar over his ankles!

While there may be valid arguments why Kashmir should be resolved, this is not one of them. The growth of these terrorists have little to do with any issues other than how they perceive their religion.

 

[Omar1984]

Excellent analysis:

I7uhNYu78MY[/media] - Understanding Mumbai Attacks : By Salman Rushdie

As if anyone would care what that ***** salman rushdie says. Moderators remove the link no one wants to hear salman rushdie...the face of india.