Will there be a war 2016 in south China sea

[A2Z]

My personal suggestion is, if anyone wanna attack China they should hurry up ~!!! If not the list of China ships will add, time is our best friend for China.

U.S DoD released: 2015 ASiA-PACIFIC Maritime Security Strategy

Impressive indeed, but you need to add South Korean and Indian numbers as well.

 

[cnleio]

Impressive indeed, but you need to add South Korean and Indian numbers as well.

List of active Indian Navy ships - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Indian Navy now has 27x DDGs and FFGs, 16x subs, 30+ corvettes and missile boats.



Wiki: People's Liberation Army Navy Surface Force
China Navy has 90+ DDGs and FFGs and Corvettes in 2015

 

[Indos]

There is no urgency for war since the energy resources is abundant now as Shale oil is able to be extracted and the technology will further spread into other oil fields around the world as well. So oil and gas will remain in a reasonable price for quite some time according to my prediction. This calculation is important as SCS is predicted to have huge energy resources with already proven oil/ gas reserve as well.

What China is doing now is to make military and judicial foundation for the next 20-30 years situation in which potential conflict might arise as energy might become rare and China export is no longer as important as Today for its economy.

China of course doesnt want to start conflict now until 10 years to come as it can endanger their trade with ASEAN countries and possibly others, since USA and Japan can use the situation to further corner China economically by imposing trade and other economic sanction.

But as China might become more domestic market driven economy later and energy price goes hike once more into a level in which domestic industry get huge pressure to keep up with other economies to stay competitive, so this is the time where potential conflict might become a reality.

But of course sometime war can happen due to psychological needs and pressure and not due to reasonable calculation and cause.

 

[cnleio]

There is no urgency for war since the energy resources is abundant now as Shale oil is able to be extracted and the technology will further spread into other oil fields around the world as well. So oil and gas will remain in a reasonable price for quite some time according to my prediction. This calculation is important as SCS is predicted to have huge energy resources with already proven oil/ gas reserve as well.

What China is doing now is to make military and judicial foundation for the next 20-30 years situation in which potential conflict might arise as energy might become rare and China export is no longer as important as Today for its economy.

China of course doesnt want to start conflict now until 10 years to come as it can endanger their trade with ASEAN countries and possibly others, since USA and Japan can use the situation to further corner China economically by imposing trade and other economic sanction.

But as China might become more domestic market driven economy later and energy price goes hike once more into a level in which domestic industry get huge pressure to keep up with other economies to stay competitive, so this is the time where potential conflict might become a reality.

But of course sometime war can happen due to psychological needs and pressure and not due to reasonable calculation and cause.

Said very well ... in 21-century a successful international businessman need two kits = ‘a bigger stick’ and ‘a attractive carrot’. The only problem is just nuclear power is future power not current oils, and deepwater oil/ gas in SCS their mining price not cheap, bro.

Most depth of SCS water 2,000~3,500m

 

[Jlaw]

My prediction is Philippines will start a war with Vietnam is more likely

or

Vietnam vs Cambodia
Vietnam vs Thailand

 

[Indos]

Said very well ... in 21-century a successful international businessman need two kits = ‘a bigger stick’ and ‘a attractive carrot’. The only problem is just nuclear power is future power not current oils, and deepwater oil/ gas in SCS their mining price not cheap, bro.
View attachment 279800


Most depth of SCS water 2,000~3,500m

Yup, I know it is not cheap but at certain situation it will be economical and dont forget technology growth as well. Indonesia and Exxon is working on that deepwater gas, but I dont now the progress now.

 

[Rechoice]

My prediction is Philippines will start a war with Vietnam is more likely

or

Vietnam vs Cambodia
Vietnam vs Thailand

Vietnam, Cambodia sign defence cooperation plan for 2016
VNA SATURDAY, DECEMBER 12, 2015 - 16:21:46

Vietnamese Defence Minister General Phung Quang Thanh (R) shakes hands with Cambodian counterpart Tia Banh (Photo: VNA)

Hanoi (VNA) – Vietnamese Defence Minister General Phung Quang Thanh and his Cambodian counterpart signed a bilateral cooperation plan for 2016 after their talks in Hanoi on December 12.

Both sides agreed to focus on all-level delegation exchanges - especially among young offiers, deputy ministerial-level defence policy dialogue, personnel training, and joint sea patrols.

They will step up the search for, gathering and repatriation of Vietnamese volunteers and experts who laid down their lives in Cambodia in wartime, while enhancing coordination to protect the shared borderline of peace, friendship, stability and development.

During talks, the two ministers underlined defence as one of the important pillars in Vietnam-Cambodia relations, with notable cooperation outcomes in personnel training, joint implementation of the border demarcation agreement, and shared borderline protection.

Defene Minister Phung Quang Thanh thanked the Cambodian government, people and royal army for their support to the Vietnamese army and people in the cause of national liberation and current construction and defence.

He also thanked the Cambodian side for creating favourable conditions for Vietnam to search, gather and repatriate remains of Vietnamese volunteers and experts in Cambodia .

He confirmed that the Vietnamese army and people will strengthen solidarity and provide assistance for Cambodia in nation building and defence.

For his part, Minister Tia Banh thanked the Vietnamese army and people for helping Cambodia escape from the genocidal Pol Pot regime as well as assisting the Royal Cambodian Army in personnel training and training facilities.

He said the Cambodian army and people vow to preserve, nurture and develop the sound traditional friendship with Vietnamese counterpart.-VNA

 

[Jlaw]

Vietnam, Cambodia sign defence cooperation plan for 2016
VNA SATURDAY, DECEMBER 12, 2015 - 16:21:46

Vietnamese Defence Minister General Phung Quang Thanh (R) shakes hands with Cambodian counterpart Tia Banh (Photo: VNA)

Hanoi (VNA) – Vietnamese Defence Minister General Phung Quang Thanh and his Cambodian counterpart signed a bilateral cooperation plan for 2016 after their talks in Hanoi on December 12.

Both sides agreed to focus on all-level delegation exchanges - especially among young offiers, deputy ministerial-level defence policy dialogue, personnel training, and joint sea patrols.

They will step up the search for, gathering and repatriation of Vietnamese volunteers and experts who laid down their lives in Cambodia in wartime, while enhancing coordination to protect the shared borderline of peace, friendship, stability and development.

During talks, the two ministers underlined defence as one of the important pillars in Vietnam-Cambodia relations, with notable cooperation outcomes in personnel training, joint implementation of the border demarcation agreement, and shared borderline protection.

Defene Minister Phung Quang Thanh thanked the Cambodian government, people and royal army for their support to the Vietnamese army and people in the cause of national liberation and current construction and defence.

He also thanked the Cambodian side for creating favourable conditions for Vietnam to search, gather and repatriate remains of Vietnamese volunteers and experts in Cambodia .

He confirmed that the Vietnamese army and people will strengthen solidarity and provide assistance for Cambodia in nation building and defence.

For his part, Minister Tia Banh thanked the Vietnamese army and people for helping Cambodia escape from the genocidal Pol Pot regime as well as assisting the Royal Cambodian Army in personnel training and training facilities.

He said the Cambodian army and people vow to preserve, nurture and develop the sound traditional friendship with Vietnamese counterpart.-VNA

Germany signed a non aggression pact with Poland, what is your point?

Vietnamese Soldiers ‘Threaten to Kill’ Cambodians Monitoring Disputed Border

 

[Rechoice]

Germany signed a non aggression pact with Poland, what is your point?

Vietnamese Soldiers ‘Threaten to Kill’ Cambodians Monitoring Disputed Border

Do you think Cambodia is considered herself as Nazi Geman in 1934 ? It is big mistake.

What is the consequency to German after WW II ? German has lost the East land territory to Poland, do you know that ?

 

[rott]

China is not just a country. It is only one of very few states to be considered continent-scale nations, but China is by far the biggest of them all. USA is genuinely another but albeit around quarter the magnitude of China, by population. Russia and Australia have the land but not the population to be true continent states and India has the population but not land mass and overall development to be considered one either. If European Union is considered a single state, then that would also qualify, but alas they aren't really.

China is the biggest of all continent states when factoring in land, population, economy, technology and development but it is not even a fraction to being at full capacity. Even though China is already ahead of US, in real terms, economically, we have only scratched the surface of what China can be and wants to be. Passing the US is a big milestone but China always had loftier goals than just to be better than US.

The US being like all hegemonic states that have gone before them want to delay or curb the rise of any rising power, which is what is happening now. The US is using dopes, like the Philippines, as a buffer state, because Philippines is not smart enough to realise when the geopolitical winds of power are shifting and they feel they are safe, as long as they stay shacked up in the house the US built for them. Philippines are going to be USA's first sacrificial lamb, if they don't get wise fast. USA will never intervene directly with a major nuclear power and nor will China. It's dope nations, like Vietnam and Philippines, that end up being battlegrounds for proxy wars, and they always suffer the most.

Pinoys need to get some perspective when they deal with goliaths they aren't equipped to deal with!

Thanks buddy. Very well written and thought out post.

 

[Jlaw]

Do you think Cambodia is considered herself as Nazi Geman in 1934 ? It is big mistake.

What is the consequency to German after WW II ? German has lost the East land territory to Poland, do you know that ?

No, my point is treaties/pacts are useless and will be broken. Look at all the treaties signed and broken in the past 100 years.

Nothing but buying time for both countries involved.

 

[Godman]

does anyone can predict , Will there be a war 2016 in south China sea . year of 2016 is bad luck for asian area. and I worry about Japan ally with vietnam to against china. and US and India are their backup ?

nope if you want war do it yourself

 

[DRDO KALI 10000]

We will never start a war but if others start it, we will finish it.

I'm confident that there will be no war next year, no country is dumb enough to challenge China.

China Navy Response : "This is CHINA NAVY" The destroyer heard a communication on its radio in which someone told the ship’s captain to “stay away from our island,” a U.S. official said.

U.S. Navy Tests China Over Sea Claims - WSJ
this will be informative for you

 

[Rechoice]

No, my point is treaties/pacts are useless and will be broken. Look at all the treaties signed and broken in the past 100 years.

Nothing but buying time for both countries involved.

we are waiting too, when does Cambodia could broken the treaty signed by both side.? We will claimed back the land of our ancestor there from ancient time.

Historians believe that the earliest Vietnamese people gradually moved from the Indonesian archipelago through the Malay Peninsula and Thailand until they settled on the edges of the Red River in the Tonkin Delta to the south of China.

.Vietnamese people - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia