Banglar Bir
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Will India go for war?
Adam Abdullah, May 31, 2017
Indian strategists are divided on the issue of India embarking on immediate war with Pakistan. The hawkish are of the opinion that it’s time to show strength. They feel that the Kashmir issue has been dragged on for too long – running into the third generation.
It is time that India takes a ‘bold’ step or else it might lose its total grip on the Himalayan state. The war threat has intensified more after New Delhi’s claim of Pakistani troops crossing the Line of Control in disputed Kashmir and killing two Indian soldiers, and beheading their corpses.
This was denied by Pakistan. The incident evoked chest thumping reactions from India’s defence minister to the country’s opposition leaders. Indian Defence Minister Arun Jaitley vowed that the “sacrifice” of the Border Security Force personnel “will not go in vain,” adding India’s armed forces “will respond appropriately.” Former Congress Minister Kapil Sibal chided the Modi government for being too conciliatory to Pakistan. He urged India’s prime minister to “remove his bangles and show what you can do.”
On the other hand, a strategist like M.K. Narayana, who served as India’s National Security Adviser for six long years till 2011, in a column in the Hindu, warned that India has effectively lost control of the situation in J&K and argued that to avert a disaster, in the form of an “intifada,” New Delhi should abandon its “muscular policy” and even reach out to Islamabad.
Narayanan, who for years helped oversee the repression in Kashmir, makes a number of damning admissions. These include that Pakistani interference and “terrorism” are not the main cause of the current wave of popular protest in J&K and that the Pakistan-supported insurgent and separatist political groups have little control over it.
Why War?
Kashmir could be a triggering point for India to move for war with its nuclear neighbour Pakistan, but there could be more to it. By not joining the OBOR initiative, India is slowly realising the pain of isolation and they foresee the distress it could bring to India once the initiative evolves fully. Last month 29 world leaders and representatives from countries across the continent joined the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing.
Billions are being spent on this initiative and India’s regional allies are gradually shifting allegiances. Maldives joined OBOR in 2014, and Bangladesh signed up in 2016. Sri Lanka became a part of it in 2010. Pakistan too had become a part of it as a result of the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Nepal signed up in May this year. Myanmar is slowly moving back towards the Chinese sphere of influence. All this has made New Delhi nervous.
India is resorting to grand rhetoric in an effort to project itself as the regional powerhouse and keep control over its perceived ‘domain’. India seems desperate to disrupt the Chinese initiative. The best option could be through a limited a war with Pakistan, at least in Asia. India wants to carry out this move before China gets more entrenched in the region. In a way, it wants to ‘scare off’ China from further investing in Pakistan and the region. Giving support to Baloch insurgents to create instability and even the abduction of Chinese nationals are failing to keep Beijing out of the CPEC project.
By waging war against Pakistan, New Delhi is hoping to gain on few fronts. It feels it would help contain Kashmir, destabilise Pakistan and, most importantly, disrupt China’s OBOR initiative in Asia and all this might turn the tables in India’s favour. And the timing for carrying out this ‘limited war’ as New Delhi is contemplating, could be this winter when lot of places in the Kashmir valley becomes a ‘No Go’ and the theatre becomes smaller.
Moreover, a war would help in creating a future market for India’s private sector arms producers who are investing in a big way. Already 300 licences have been awarded to local firms. Recently, the Indian government finalised a policy that will allow the entry of private companies into the manufacture of submarines, fighter aircrafts and armoured vehicles through foreign partnerships. India is forecast to spend $250 billion on modernisation of its armed forces over the next decade.
Meanwhile, New Delhi is prepared for ‘a two-front war’ involving Beijing and Islamabad simultaneously. India’s Army Chief General Bipin Rawat told a news channel early this year.
Rawat also said that India must have intimate ties with Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan, and should attempt to thwart China’s ‘westward movement’ with the help of these countries. So it is quite obvious that India’s target is China and it would try to contain it from ‘spreading out’.
Can India withstand a war?
The shortest answer would be NO. One, in this age of technology and military advancement one cannot limit war even if it wants to. The US misadventure in Afghanistan can be a good example. Despite US commitment to withdraw from Afghanistan by 2014, it is now pouring in more troops. Two, the war might not be limited to Pakistan only. Pakistan has very intelligently locked in China in their ‘daily life’. China has already heavily invested in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. Thousands of Chinese workers are on ground in Pakistan working on the CPEC and OBOR initiative. Obviously, China will have ample reason to get involved. China will not allow its multi-billion dollar project to be disrupted.
The eye of the storm would be Kashmir. Indian army has already become war fatigued from its prolonged counter-insurgency role. And it has become alienated from local population in the valley. They are perceived as enemy troops by the Kashmiris. In time of war, a little support from Pakistan will usher in disaster for the Indian troops. In previous war, it was different. Any Pakistan army personnel that could sneak in were handed over to Indian authorities by the locals. Now they would be rather welcomed.
A substantial number of the India forces are already bogged down with internal ‘policing’ and insurgencies in Kashmir and the North East India. With little support from Beijing, the Maoist and the Dalit movements can create ‘havoc’ in heartland India. India might have to fight not only on two fronts – but many within.
India will not match with China as regards infrastructural developments along borders with China. India has very recently been carrying out some developments. But Beijing’s border communication is state of the art. It can mobilise several divisions in a matter of hours into the war zone.
As an analyst has put in “Significantly, given decades of cooperation, technology transfer, training and equipment sales, Pakistan and China have achieved military interoperability. Having a common enemy has reinforced this compatibility. The armies of the two countries are capable to execute joint missions against a common target. Together, the two allies create a formidable joint force. With unstinting cooperation from China, Pakistan has enviable nuclear technology, missile delivery systems, the logistic supply chain of equipment and spares, and new-age technologies such as cyber and drone warfare.”
In his book “The Dragon on our Doorsteps”, Praveen Sahwney says that while India was busy developing its military arsenal, Pakistan and China developed their war waging capabilities, which is a synthesis of many strengths other than just military force.
Another area of consternation for India is that its traditional ally Russia has in recent times drawn closer to both the US and China, particularly after the arrival of Trump in the White House. The US needs Pakistan to achieve closure in Afghanistan and has been supporting Pakistan financially and militarily. Pakistan is no longer as dependent on the US as before. China has filled the gap.
China’s “One Belt One Road” is a master move. Not only is the initiative a win-win for both China and Pakistan, but India may find themselves losing out by adamantly shunning the project.
If indeed India does decide on war with Pakistan, the latter can depend on China for their logistics supply chain as well as weaken the Indian Armed Forces’ resources and focus by mobilizing PLA divisions along the border with India. This would divert a substantial part of the Indian military reserves to the Eastern front.
At this rather nebulous juncture of global politics, nations such as the US, UK, Russia and France, would think more than twice before intervening in a possible Indo-Pak conflict.
While India’s warmongers may be baying for blood, the more cool-headed pragmatists realize that caution is the call of the day. In waging a war against arch enemy Pakistan, they simply cannot afford to provoke Pakistan’s tried and test ally China. India may find it more prudent to let the sleeping dragon lie.
http://southasianmonitor.com/2017/05/31/will-india-go-war/
Adam Abdullah, May 31, 2017
Indian strategists are divided on the issue of India embarking on immediate war with Pakistan. The hawkish are of the opinion that it’s time to show strength. They feel that the Kashmir issue has been dragged on for too long – running into the third generation.
It is time that India takes a ‘bold’ step or else it might lose its total grip on the Himalayan state. The war threat has intensified more after New Delhi’s claim of Pakistani troops crossing the Line of Control in disputed Kashmir and killing two Indian soldiers, and beheading their corpses.
This was denied by Pakistan. The incident evoked chest thumping reactions from India’s defence minister to the country’s opposition leaders. Indian Defence Minister Arun Jaitley vowed that the “sacrifice” of the Border Security Force personnel “will not go in vain,” adding India’s armed forces “will respond appropriately.” Former Congress Minister Kapil Sibal chided the Modi government for being too conciliatory to Pakistan. He urged India’s prime minister to “remove his bangles and show what you can do.”
On the other hand, a strategist like M.K. Narayana, who served as India’s National Security Adviser for six long years till 2011, in a column in the Hindu, warned that India has effectively lost control of the situation in J&K and argued that to avert a disaster, in the form of an “intifada,” New Delhi should abandon its “muscular policy” and even reach out to Islamabad.
Narayanan, who for years helped oversee the repression in Kashmir, makes a number of damning admissions. These include that Pakistani interference and “terrorism” are not the main cause of the current wave of popular protest in J&K and that the Pakistan-supported insurgent and separatist political groups have little control over it.
Why War?
Kashmir could be a triggering point for India to move for war with its nuclear neighbour Pakistan, but there could be more to it. By not joining the OBOR initiative, India is slowly realising the pain of isolation and they foresee the distress it could bring to India once the initiative evolves fully. Last month 29 world leaders and representatives from countries across the continent joined the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing.
Billions are being spent on this initiative and India’s regional allies are gradually shifting allegiances. Maldives joined OBOR in 2014, and Bangladesh signed up in 2016. Sri Lanka became a part of it in 2010. Pakistan too had become a part of it as a result of the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Nepal signed up in May this year. Myanmar is slowly moving back towards the Chinese sphere of influence. All this has made New Delhi nervous.
India is resorting to grand rhetoric in an effort to project itself as the regional powerhouse and keep control over its perceived ‘domain’. India seems desperate to disrupt the Chinese initiative. The best option could be through a limited a war with Pakistan, at least in Asia. India wants to carry out this move before China gets more entrenched in the region. In a way, it wants to ‘scare off’ China from further investing in Pakistan and the region. Giving support to Baloch insurgents to create instability and even the abduction of Chinese nationals are failing to keep Beijing out of the CPEC project.
By waging war against Pakistan, New Delhi is hoping to gain on few fronts. It feels it would help contain Kashmir, destabilise Pakistan and, most importantly, disrupt China’s OBOR initiative in Asia and all this might turn the tables in India’s favour. And the timing for carrying out this ‘limited war’ as New Delhi is contemplating, could be this winter when lot of places in the Kashmir valley becomes a ‘No Go’ and the theatre becomes smaller.
Moreover, a war would help in creating a future market for India’s private sector arms producers who are investing in a big way. Already 300 licences have been awarded to local firms. Recently, the Indian government finalised a policy that will allow the entry of private companies into the manufacture of submarines, fighter aircrafts and armoured vehicles through foreign partnerships. India is forecast to spend $250 billion on modernisation of its armed forces over the next decade.
Meanwhile, New Delhi is prepared for ‘a two-front war’ involving Beijing and Islamabad simultaneously. India’s Army Chief General Bipin Rawat told a news channel early this year.
Rawat also said that India must have intimate ties with Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan, and should attempt to thwart China’s ‘westward movement’ with the help of these countries. So it is quite obvious that India’s target is China and it would try to contain it from ‘spreading out’.
Can India withstand a war?
The shortest answer would be NO. One, in this age of technology and military advancement one cannot limit war even if it wants to. The US misadventure in Afghanistan can be a good example. Despite US commitment to withdraw from Afghanistan by 2014, it is now pouring in more troops. Two, the war might not be limited to Pakistan only. Pakistan has very intelligently locked in China in their ‘daily life’. China has already heavily invested in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. Thousands of Chinese workers are on ground in Pakistan working on the CPEC and OBOR initiative. Obviously, China will have ample reason to get involved. China will not allow its multi-billion dollar project to be disrupted.
The eye of the storm would be Kashmir. Indian army has already become war fatigued from its prolonged counter-insurgency role. And it has become alienated from local population in the valley. They are perceived as enemy troops by the Kashmiris. In time of war, a little support from Pakistan will usher in disaster for the Indian troops. In previous war, it was different. Any Pakistan army personnel that could sneak in were handed over to Indian authorities by the locals. Now they would be rather welcomed.
A substantial number of the India forces are already bogged down with internal ‘policing’ and insurgencies in Kashmir and the North East India. With little support from Beijing, the Maoist and the Dalit movements can create ‘havoc’ in heartland India. India might have to fight not only on two fronts – but many within.
India will not match with China as regards infrastructural developments along borders with China. India has very recently been carrying out some developments. But Beijing’s border communication is state of the art. It can mobilise several divisions in a matter of hours into the war zone.
As an analyst has put in “Significantly, given decades of cooperation, technology transfer, training and equipment sales, Pakistan and China have achieved military interoperability. Having a common enemy has reinforced this compatibility. The armies of the two countries are capable to execute joint missions against a common target. Together, the two allies create a formidable joint force. With unstinting cooperation from China, Pakistan has enviable nuclear technology, missile delivery systems, the logistic supply chain of equipment and spares, and new-age technologies such as cyber and drone warfare.”
In his book “The Dragon on our Doorsteps”, Praveen Sahwney says that while India was busy developing its military arsenal, Pakistan and China developed their war waging capabilities, which is a synthesis of many strengths other than just military force.
Another area of consternation for India is that its traditional ally Russia has in recent times drawn closer to both the US and China, particularly after the arrival of Trump in the White House. The US needs Pakistan to achieve closure in Afghanistan and has been supporting Pakistan financially and militarily. Pakistan is no longer as dependent on the US as before. China has filled the gap.
China’s “One Belt One Road” is a master move. Not only is the initiative a win-win for both China and Pakistan, but India may find themselves losing out by adamantly shunning the project.
If indeed India does decide on war with Pakistan, the latter can depend on China for their logistics supply chain as well as weaken the Indian Armed Forces’ resources and focus by mobilizing PLA divisions along the border with India. This would divert a substantial part of the Indian military reserves to the Eastern front.
At this rather nebulous juncture of global politics, nations such as the US, UK, Russia and France, would think more than twice before intervening in a possible Indo-Pak conflict.
While India’s warmongers may be baying for blood, the more cool-headed pragmatists realize that caution is the call of the day. In waging a war against arch enemy Pakistan, they simply cannot afford to provoke Pakistan’s tried and test ally China. India may find it more prudent to let the sleeping dragon lie.
http://southasianmonitor.com/2017/05/31/will-india-go-war/
