Will Afghanistan fail as a state after 2014?

[pakistani342]

The old question is now just being asked louder. Article on the Telegraph here -- excerpts below:

There are two primary reasons why the security situation in Afghanistan is worsening. The first and critical problem is politico-economic in nature. Having promised government jobs, money, and power to their supporters before the elections, both President Ashraf Ghani and the CEO Abdullah Abdullah are now struggling to keep their promises.

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Instead of ensuring equitable distribution of funds and authority, those who have both simply don’t want to part with it. And those who don’t get their share are happy to part ways and seek revenge. All that the Taliban needs to do is capitalise on this burgeoning discontent.

The other problem is the incapability of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) to contain violence. There are two aspects to this. First, from a military tactical perspective, the Taliban, which controls the Afghan countryside, has freedom of manoeuvre that the ANSF does not enjoy. Restricted to securing the cities and key trade arteries of Afghanistan, Afghan soldiers often become sitting ducks for the Taliban.
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Cash injections, however many and however large, can never be a sustainable solution. The attacks in Paktika and on the British embassy staff are symptoms of a failing state run on patronage.

 

[rockstar08]

yes ... even today Taliban control the most of Afghanistan , so imagine when US and Nato will not be there , along with their Technology , weapons , Fighter planes , who's going to stop Taliban ?

 

[vishi.jack]

Pakistan.. if they want

 

[haviZsultan]

yes ... even today Taliban control the most of Afghanistan , so imagine when US and Nato will not be there , along with their Technology , weapons , Fighter planes , who's going to stop Taliban ?

I am sure they will be leaving a force behind. Small but training of Afghan forces etc will continue. I am extremely worried about the future of Afghanistan. If the Taliban come to power again there, they are not going to be friendly with Pakistan.

 

[rockstar08]

I am sure they will be leaving a force behind. Small but training of Afghan forces etc will continue. I am extremely worried about the future of Afghanistan. If the Taliban come to power again there, they are not going to be friendly with Pakistan.

right now its 70,000+ US forces in Afghanistan , and still whenever Taliban wants they attack Kabul ... so when they stationed only 10,000 forces for training , what they will do ??
Afghanistan govt is closing to India ,Pakistan may or will re-consider its ties with Afghan Taliban , If Afghans can play their cards , so can Pakistan , Fighting with Pakistan is not in favor of Afghan Taliban ..

 

[vishi.jack]

What do y

I am sure they will be leaving a force behind. Small but training of Afghan forces etc will continue. I am extremely worried about the future of Afghanist

right now its 70,000+ US forces in Afghanistan , and still whenever Taliban wants they attack Kabul ... so when they stationed only 10,000 forces for training , what they will do ??
Afghanistan govt is closing to India ,Pakistan may or will re-consider its ties with Afghan Taliban , If Afghans can play their cards , so can Pakistan , Fighting with Pakistan is not in favor of Afghan Taliban ..[/Q
There is no direct war between any country,only proxy war. Even Pakistan or India or China don't go for direct attack on any country.
Afgn is just battle field.

 

[haviZsultan]

right now its 70,000+ US forces in Afghanistan , and still whenever Taliban wants they attack Kabul ... so when they stationed only 10,000 forces for training , what they will do ??
Afghanistan govt is closing to India ,Pakistan may or will re-consider its ties with Afghan Taliban , If Afghans can play their cards , so can Pakistan , Fighting with Pakistan is not in favor of Afghan Taliban ..

I have always been a proponent of deciding which militant group poses the greatest threat and then expend our efforts on the groups that are an immediate threat. So the TTP, LEJ and Jundullah should be our first priorities. But ignoring the Afghan Taliban as a threat might not be a good idea.

Afghan Taliban are no less brutal than the TTP. Only their main targets are different. They focus their efforts on the Afghan forces. The question is that what we don't want for ourselves, why we want such a thing for our neighbors which is also an Islamic state. I do not believe the Afghan Taliban are noble and deserving of our support in any way. We already betrayed them anyway by joining the WOT and supporting America killing them. I don't think they would keenly accept the hand of friendship we give them this time.

 

[rockstar08]

I have always been a proponent of deciding which militant group poses the greatest threat and then expend our efforts on the groups that are an immediate threat. So the TTP, LEJ and Jundullah should be our first priorities. But ignoring the Afghan Taliban as a threat might not be a good idea.

Afghan Taliban are no less brutal than the TTP. Only their main targets are different. They focus their efforts on the Afghan forces. The question is that what we don't want for ourselves, why we want such a thing for our neighbors which is also an Islamic state. I do not believe the Afghan Taliban are noble and deserving of our support in any way. We already betrayed them anyway by joining the WOT and supporting America killing them. I don't think they would keenly accept the hand of friendship we give them this time.

you are right about the priorities , but what do you want Pakistan to do if India increase their presence in Afghanistan .. its a open secret that Indian Embassies are involved in Funding TTP and other banned organizations in Pakistan .. do you want Pakistan again to ignore their National Interest and put them into someone's fight? ? ? today almost all Pakistani believe that becoming partner in WOT was Pakistan's worse mistake ..
you make peace , by making friends with your enemy ..
What options do we have ?? we cant go inside Afghanistan to target TTP , and i dont think Indians will leave this golden Opportunity of waging a long lasting Proxy war in Pakistan ... do we have ability to strike TTP inside Afghanistan ,.. will International Laws allowed that ??