Why would people from China, the world's second-biggest economy, risk their lives to enter the UK?

[bbccdd1470]

我哪里说错了直接反驳就行了。不要旁敲侧击。Just tell me which part of my reply is wrong. I didn't say Soros is naive. What I said is Soros would be naive by applying your logic. For me, you don't look like an economist cause you think Soros believe HK government would not intervene and he dare not attack the one who has more money than him.
You are becoming more and more unreasonalbe.

To be fair, HK gov't at that time was reluctant to intervene in the stock market. CNH Bamboo had provided a link 知乎 in her post that have some good answers. HK gov't did fight the financial crisis himself because HK is capable to defend against Soros, that was why HK gov't didn't ask any help from central gov't. But that doesn't mean China won't provide any help to HK gov't if the situation was worsen.

 

[kankan326]

Sure, that confidence boost from Beijing was more or less a help. But the question is, was that a critical determinant? The fact remains that HK did all the fighting by herself, and still has more than enough ammunition left. They even made a profit out of it, and it's exactly why investors are wary of a government intervention; the government can just make easy profits by manipulating the stock market. It's a moral hazard.

I've said on numerous times (@KungFuLee as well), that Soros was betting that the HK government will not intervene in the stock market. You think that's a naive thinking because you don't understand how it works. It damages a financial center's reputation, and not even the US Fed buys stocks in the market to boost prices in 2008GFC. It's a moral hazard.

You think it's no big deal to intervene because you're in China where the government simply intervenes in Shanghai markets to prop prices. The market bends towards the government's political will in China, and foreigners are wary of that. You can't use your understanding of the financial markets in mainland China and apply it elsewhere.

If I'm unreasonable I wouldn't have spend my time digging out sources and explaining to you how it works. Yet you ignored my points and came out with non-technical 江湖 theories.

And frankly, if you're some other nationality I wouldn't be so nice to even bother explaining to you guys and bridge the gap of understanding. I would lurk around and just laugh it off.

Moral hazard. Under that historical background, Moral hazard is not important. Obviously HK government knew this. Soros also knew ths.

To be fair, HK gov't at that time was reluctant to intervene in the stock market. CNH Bamboo had provided a link 知乎 in her post that have some good answers. HK gov't did fight the financial crisis himself because HK is capable to defend against Soros, that was why HK gov't didn't ask any help from central gov't. But that doesn't mean China won't provide any help to HK gov't if the situation was worsen.

Show me the link please. There are vast of materials that say Dong Jianhua flew to Beijing for support.

 

[bbccdd1470]

Moral hazard
View attachment 587607

Show me the link please. There are vast of materials that say Dong Jianhua flew to Beijing for support.

你这个截图是在知乎的：中国政府在97年亚洲金融危机“香港战场”起到了怎样的作用 这个问题里看到的吗？
那个答案底下也有质疑声，你怎么看呢？
https://www.zhihu.com/question/22607847

Then I'm wrong about seeking help from Central gov't. In fact China did help HK through the difficult time like after SARS, so I'm not surprised.

 

[Mista]

The Fed intervened through interest rates, not by directly intervening by buying common stocks in the market.

 

[kankan326]

HK gov't did fight the financial crisis himself because HK is capable to defend against Soros, that was why HK gov't didn't ask any help from central gov't.

Where is this part in your link? The pictures only confirmed Dong did ask help to China government.

 

[bbccdd1470]

Where is this part in your link?

I already said I was wrong about the seeking help from Central gov't in my last post.

 

[kankan326]

The Fed intervened through interest rates, not by directly intervening by buying common stocks in the market.

What about the Japan case? Again, please consider the history background. SE Asian countries are bleeding under Soros' sword. You would choose moral hazard if you were thrown to that time and that position.

 

[Mista]

What about the Japan case?

It states only securities, not indicating it was equity or debt.

And that was Japan in the 1960s.

SE Asian countries are bleeding under Soros' sword. You would choose moral hazard if you were thrown to that time and that position.

SEA can't even defend their currency. HK with 7x of reserves of their M1 money supply can. What was bleeding was HK's stock market.

 

[kankan326]

SEA can't even defend their currency. HK with 7x of reserves of their M1 money supply can. What was bleeding was HK's stock market.

Even though it was a close win for HK government. Imagine if there was no intervention. What a massacre it would be.

 

[Mista]

Even though it was a close win for HK government. Imagine if there was no intervention. What a massacre it would be.

Sigh. I've shown you straight from the HKMA that they have more than enough and you keep on repeating like a broken recorder based on your 江湖 theories from the internet that it was a 'close win'. The internet says it's all thanks to the brilliance of the central government and the whole world was in awe. So?

Tell me, how much did they spend? What are HK's total reserves? Why did the HK government manage to make a profit?

Try reading my replies above for once and process it. You will get your answer.

And sure, their stock market would've taken a beating without the HKMA intervention. It's all thanks to HKMA's intervention.

 

[AndrewJin]

Is that possible those viets who have already successfully smuggled to Europe provide some sponsorship to unrelated viets back at home? So that less viets will choose such bloody routes like cargo ships or boats to Australia.
@Viet @Viva_Viet

DO NOT TROLL.
PLS speak from your own experiences illegally crossing borders

 

[kankan326]

Sigh. I've shown you straight from the HKMA that they have more than enough and you keep on repeating like a broken recorder based on your 江湖 theories from the internet that it was a 'close win'. The internet says it's all thanks to the brilliance of the central government and the whole world was in awe. So?

Tell me, how much did they spend? What are HK's total reserves? Why did the HK government manage to make a profit?

Try reading my replies above for once and process it. You will get your answer.

And sure, their stock market would've taken a beating without the HKMA intervention. It's all thanks to HKMA's intervention.

How much did they spend? I don't know. I never read any report talking about that.
Do you know that? If you don't, how can you tell me mine is 江湖 theories and yours is authentic? What I know is. Dong asked help to China government. And 828 is a 惊心动魄 day. All the world reported the news. It's definitely not an easy day for HK government. And it doesnt' look like an easy win for me.

Don't ask why HK government made a profit again. Soros lost the war. HK won it. Of course there was a profit.

 

[Ashwasthama]

Because the life is china is worse than that. It is wise to risk life to escape from China.

 

[Mista]

How much did they spend? I don't know. I never read any report talking about that.
Do you know that? If you don't, how can you tell me mine is 江湖 theories and yours is authentic? What I know is. Dong asked help to China government. And 828 is a 惊心动魄 day. All the world reported the news. It's definitely not an easy day for HK government. And it doesnt' look like an easy win for me.

First, we used the opportunity to sell foreign reserves for Hong Kong dollars, in anticipation of the draw down of fiscal reserves deposited with the Exchange Fund, as the public finances moved into a cyclical as well as a seasonal deficit. This relieved some of the pressure on the exchange rate and therefore obviated the need for a repeat of the very sharp interest rate hike of 1997. The amount of foreign reserves utilised in this manner was about US$10 billion. Secondly, we sold large sums of foreign reserves for Hong Kong dollars for the purchase of Hong Kong stocks equivalent to US$15 billion. Thirdly, we made the monetary base much bigger in order to reduce the sensitivity of interest rates to inflows and outflows of funds. This involved committing another US$13 billion as additional backing.
...
It should also be noted that we were able to do so without causing a breakdown of confidence in monetary and financial management in Hong Kong on the part of the international financial community, including financial analysts and rating agencies. To a large extent, this was because we had significantly more foreign reserves in the Exchange Fund than the sums mobilised, and the Fund had no significant liabilities other than the fiscal reserves deposited there.

https://www.legco.gov.hk/yr00-01/english/panels/fa/papers/a1022e02.pdf

 

[bbccdd1470]

I know this is out topic, but this is very informative from both sides about how HK fought 97 financial crisis. The general consensus of HK is HK fought against Soros alone with our huge reserves and China as backup in case something goes wrong, but I remain open minded as long as the argument is reasonable.