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Why Vietnam Will Be the Next Nuclear State

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Vietnam can't even afford to host the Asian Games and they want to be a nuclear state? Do you know how prohibitively expensive that would be? Never mind the host of economic sanctions to follow that would further wreck an already shaky Vietnamese economy. Vietnam *could* be a nuclear state but then they also *could* be SE Asia's own little North Korea.

And if China ever caught wind of Vietnam working on a nuclear program, what's to stop China from launching a pre-emptive strike with the full might of the PLAAF and the PLAN? China is right next door, in case you forgot, and for a potentially nuclear armed enemy, China would pull out all the stops so they could play with you.

Suppose Vietnam does acquire nukes. Once that genie's out of the bottle, what's to stop China from arming some of Vietnam's traditional enemies in SE Asia with nukes, since they could use Vietnam's excuse of "survival as a nation and people" (as Gambit so unconvincingly put it), but with reference to not being gobbled up by Vietnam? Bye, Bye Viet domination of the Sub-Mekong region. Either way, Vietnam loses. LMAO. :)
 
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Vietnam can't even afford to host the Asian Games and they want to be a nuclear state? Do you know how prohibitively expensive that would be? Never mind the host of economic sanctions to follow that would further wreck an already shaky Vietnamese economy. Vietnam *could* be a nuclear state but then they also *could* be SE Asia's own little North Korea.

And if China ever caught wind of Vietnam working on a nuclear program, what's to stop China from launching a pre-emptive strike with the full might of the PLAAF and the PLAN? China is right next door, in case you forgot, and for a potentially nuclear armed enemy, China would pull out all the stops so they could play with you.

Suppose Vietnam does acquire nukes. Once that genie's out of the bottle, what's to stop China from arming some of Vietnam's traditional enemies in SE Asia with nukes, since they could use Vietnam's excuse of "survival as a nation and people" (as Gambit so unconvincingly put it), but with reference to not being gobbled up by Vietnam? Bye, Bye Viet domination of the Sub-Mekong region. Either way, Vietnam loses. LMAO. :)

If any Asian nation wanna illegally develop the nukes, then China will carry out with a surgical pre-emptive attack on their nuclear facilities.
 
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Thats the first step, and bcz only US can monitor our nuke plants, so no one (including China) will know exactly what we r doing inside nuke plants except US :pop:


Right, nuclear VN will stop all China's ambitious , and we also cut off the connection between China and Chinese living among ASEAN to weaken China.

Nuclear VN is good for all except bad boy China :cheers:
on one will give your Nuclear-Weapon Technology including usa 。the usa will not so stupid to give Nuclear-Weapon Technology to your country。if usa do,i believe china will punish viet nam again like 1979。
 
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If any Asian nation wanna illegally develop the nukes, then China will carry out with a surgical pre-emptive attack on their nuclear facilities.
China will do nothing of that kind. The ONLY restraint that any Asian country does not develop an indigenous nuclear weapons program is finance, remove that obstacle and China will be surrounded by nuclear weapons states. Is China going to start small wars and occupy every conquest to ensure these countries will remain subservient ? Go back to your video games.
 
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China will do nothing of that kind. The ONLY restraint that any Asian country does not develop an indigenous nuclear weapons program is finance, remove that obstacle and China will be surrounded by nuclear weapons states. Is China going to start small wars and occupy every conquest to ensure these countries will remain subservient ? Go back to your video games.

Not a big deal for us to blow your jungle into the oblivion once for more.
 
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Not a big deal for us to blow your jungle into the oblivion once for more.
To be frank, right now China doesn't stand a chance against U.S. militarily but this may change some 10-15 years down the line.
Having said that, Vietnam shouldn't be looking for nukes to help it against China in SCS dispute. Nukes are the last line of defence against the sovereignty of a nation and I don't see China questioning the sovereignty of Vietnam as a nation. I am hopeful both China and Vietnam will work together to flush this dispute down the drain once and for all.
 
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To be frank, right now China doesn't stand a chance against U.S. militarily but this may change some 10-15 years down the line.
Having said that, Vietnam shouldn't be looking for nukes to help it against China in SCS dispute. Nukes are the last line of defence against the sovereignty of a nation and I don't see China questioning the sovereignty of Vietnam as a nation. I am hopeful both China and Vietnam will work together to flush this dispute down the drain once and for all.

It depends how Vietnam could stop this childish behavior.

And don't expect that the US will fight China for the behalf of Vietnam.
 
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mike, as southern vietnamese, I have no problem at all to see Vietnam to ally with America and Japan. most southern vietnamese would think the same, I bet. my father served in the south vietnamese navy, that fought side by side with America during the war. my countrymen in the north see thing differently of course, they would rather see our country with Russia.

So we are familar with one thing or the other. I think Russia is not an option, because it relies on China for money, investment and friendship. so it is only America.

the problem is, before making any decision, be alignment with a superpower or developing indigenous nuclear weapon program, we need to consider possible reactions of China and Russia. and that is somewhat unpredictable.

worst case scenario: Russia stops all relationships, and China starts an invasion to test America. we face economic sanctions.

besides, Vietnam is a bit sceptical about alignment. in 1979, China started the ground invasion because it feared a two front war. the Soviets did not intervene. in 1974, China started the invasion of Paracels, the US did not intervene, either. in both cases, Vietnam had defence treaties with the Soviet and America. You see, back then our defence treaties were not much worth. China has nuclear weapons, that hindered the superpowers to intervene in favor of Vietnam. Nobody wanted to risk a nuclear winter.

nevertherless, I believe sooner or later, we will face the decision to alignment and nuclear armament.


Good to know bro. Its indeed a tragedy that the south(vietnam) together with U.S lost the war to reunify vietnam under a democratic government. This is mainly due to China and Russia support to the communist Viet cong rebels. If not for that massive support, the U.S and south Vietnamese troops would have crushed the communist in the north in just about a few months. Vietnam has China and Russia to blame today for its current communist government. Had it not been for this, then Vietnam would have long been a U.S/Japan ally, which would have made things easier for Vietnam to face China currently.

However, due to Vietnam still having a communist government, it still guards its power more preciously than the Country. Which is understandable since most one party state will rather keep their power by all means, regardless of what it might mean for the country. The party always comes before the state. So obviously the Vietnamese government will always be cautious not to get too close/ally with the U.S since it fears for its own power(thinking the U.S might use the slightest opportunity to forment trouble to topple them for a more pro U.S/western government). Similarly, the VCP also has members who are more pro China or value a peaceful negotiation/setlement/ties with China. since they see China as less a threat to their own power than the U.S. So this makes it more complicated as there are 2 sides in the party fighting for which policy should be adopted especially during crucial moments of crisis.

As for the point that the U.S and the Soviet Union didn't intervene to protect Vietnam/honor their agreement during Vietnam's conflict with China in the 70s. Well as you yourself said, you cant blame them that much, Since its true China was already a nuclear power back then. So theres no way either the U.S or U.S.S.R could attack them. It would have mean a nuclear winter in Asia. So obviously they didnt intervene in fear of escalating the situation. Moreover back then Vietnam was also hostile to the U.S, so the U.S had little incentive/reason of helping Vietnam unlike today. Even so, don't expect the U.S and China to engage in a direct open conflict, it just isn't feasible, as both have too much to loose/MAD. But the Vietnam allying with the U.S can sure make China think twice about its actions with Vietnam, thus be less agressive while trying to lure Vietnam away from the U.S.

However, your last point is a no no for Vietnam. Vietnam seeking a nuclear weapon will be the biggest mistake it can make, since it will draw the whole international community to condemn and sanction it. Imagine a situation where the U.S/E.U/China/Japan sanctions Vietnam. Vietnam will be totally isolated and will go back decades behind, which will all but erased all the progress you have made so far. Moreover in this situation, China might even attack those facilities since it will consider it as a threat to the region, and no single country will raise a single finger/complain about that if it did.:agree: That's without talking of the reaction of other ASEAN members, who will all condemn and even sanction Vietnam as well. So it will all but criple Vietnams economy. It isn't worth it one bit.

What Vietnam needs to do is to calibrate its foreign policy very carefully, prioritizing its ties with the U.S while at the same time letting China know it has got options, this will make China to at least take note and be more willing to seat on table and negotiate with Vietnam on the islands issue and not take any more agressive measures. Overall, a peaceful solution/or even share of resources/joint exploration of the region/islands will be the best solution IMO. time will tell anyway.

All the best to Vietnam and its courageous people.:cheers:
 
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China will do nothing of that kind. The ONLY restraint that any Asian country does not develop an indigenous nuclear weapons program is finance, remove that obstacle and China will be surrounded by nuclear weapons states. Is China going to start small wars and occupy every conquest to ensure these countries will remain subservient ? Go back to your video games.

You're letting your emotions cloud your judgement. There a host of reasons why other Asians don't develop nuclear weapons programs. Finance is but one of many factors that come into play. Think of the political ramifications. Do you think the US would be supportive of a nuclear Vietnam or would they be willing to turn a blind eye to a Chinese attack that would neutralize the possibility of another nuclear armed Communist state? Try to be objective. As much as Vietnamese people love the US (and in your mind, vice versa), America is a nation that doesn't like to allow others into exclusive clubs, especially something as potentially de-stabilizing as the nuclear club.

And then there are the technical hurdles. Iran is more advanced than Vietnam with regards to their domestic defense industry and even they are struggling to make a bomb. Vietnam, which is a producer of fish sauce and noodles, has quite a high technological hurdle indeed.

To address your last point, China isn't trying to occupy anything, least of all parts of the Vietnamese mainland. However, I'm confident that a Chinese strike against Vietnam is a much more viable, less politically risky, and more likely than a China who sits by and lets Vietnam go nuclear unmolested. Maybe it is *you* who should go back to your video games.
 
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You're letting your emotions cloud your judgement. There a host of reasons why other Asians don't develop nuclear weapons programs. Finance is but one of many factors that come into play. Think of the political ramifications. Do you think the US would be supportive of a nuclear Vietnam or would they be willing to turn a blind eye to a Chinese attack that would neutralize the possibility of another nuclear armed Communist state? Try to be objective. As much as Vietnamese people love the US (and in your mind, vice versa), America is a nation that doesn't like to allow others into exclusive clubs, especially something as potentially de-stabilizing as the nuclear club.

And then there are the technical hurdles. Iran is more advanced than Vietnam with regards to their domestic defense industry and even they are struggling to make a bomb. Vietnam, which is a producer of fish sauce and noodles, has quite a high technological hurdle indeed.

To address your last point, China isn't trying to occupy anything, least of all parts of the Vietnamese mainland. However, I'm confident that a Chinese strike against Vietnam is a much more viable, less politically risky, and more likely than a China who sits by and lets Vietnam go nuclear unmolested. Maybe it is *you* who should go back to your video games.

Developing the nuclear triad is an extremely massive technological ecosystem, not all country can do that.

Not even the P5 members such as France and UK have the complete nuclear triad.
 
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It depends how Vietnam could stop this childish behavior.

And don't expect that the US will fight China for the behalf of Vietnam.

Japan and USA will destroy China and punish you like uneducated kids for peace of Asia.LOL.
 
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All this talk of nuclear warfare and nuclear Armageddon is counterproductive and serves no nation except those who want the extermination of the entire human race. Such zero sum mentality should be avoided if we are to conduct constructive , intellectual dialogue here.

In the end of the day, Chinese want to eat the Peijing Duck, Japanese want to feast on Gyoza and Yakisoba, Americans want to enjoy their BBQ and corn, Russians want to eat their Borsh with pickled salmon. Life is too precious, life is too good to waste on such nonsensical nuclear Armageddon talk.
 
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