Bang Galore
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Muhammad Ali Ehsan
Wednesday, August 28, 2013 - Is this a lame-duck government devoid of public mandate to negotiate peace with India? Or is this a government formed by a party that won elections on the slogan of peace with India. In a recent interview with UKs Telegraph newspaper Nawaz Sharif claimed, We didnt have any India-bashing slogans in the elections. We dont believe in such slogans. There have been such slogans in the past 10 years ago, 20 years ago but not now. In fact, I very clearly spoke about good relations with India even before the elections. A vast majority of people of Pakistan have trusted and mandated this government to move ahead and revive the stalled peace process with New Delhi. It is in light of such a public mandate that Nawaz Sharif pursues his current political strategy of handling the escalating tensions at LOC with dialogue. Why then New Delhi cant break away from such obstacles and barriers in the past like suspicion, disbelief and misgivings in our inter-state relationship and respond to Nawaz Sharifs extended hand of friendship?
The abrupt creation of NSC(National Security Council) something that Nawaz Sharif had vehemently opposed in past also goes to demonstrate how both the political and military elite in Pakistan are now together on board in mending the historical fractures that have been the hallmark of relations between the two neighboring States. The civil-military institutional banding at this stage it seems is designed to create an impression that both the civilian and the military elite realize the importance of embracing a renewed security agenda and response without implementing which the credibility of pursuing peace as an instrument of policy will largely remain doubtful. Regardless of how the civil-military nexus collaborates at least by formulating NSC the government has tactically agreed to give a joint civil-military platform to institutionalize our security response. Something that has not happened before and something that the Indians will be closely watching.
The restraint also being shown by Pakistan Army in the recent LOC flare up despite the Indian provocations also reflects the civil-military unison commitment to peace. The release of 364 Indian prisoners is also meant to further convey to India that no matter what, peace with India is a compulsive strategic choice that Pakistan today seeks.
Having said this, the reality is that India unlike Pakistan is under no compulsion to speed up the dialogue process. While the civil government and the military in Pakistan may realize now that we suffer as a nation because we left our security problems unaddressed for far too long, there seem to be no immediate Indian insecurities that early resumption of peace dialogue with Pakistan may address. However, what the Indians need to carefully review is that resumption of India-Pakistan peace dialogue will have a direct bearing on how Pakistan strategizes to handle its insecurities on the western border. The likely unpleasant developments in Afghanistan not far from now after the ISAFs drawdown is completed can be best handled if Pakistan and India agree on certain security commitments on the eastern front. This will give that necessary leverage to our political and military leadership to go about eradicating militancy as the most important evil with the manpower and resources spared from the eastern front. Else if militancy spirals out of control then not only Pakistan but the complete region will experience its negative fallout and destabilize.
Viewed realistically India will wait and see what constitutes our much-awaited reviewed and renewed national security policy. It will like to first see the emerging picture of transition and only when this transition takes the shape of reality that it may finally indulge in a meaningful and sustainable peace dialogue with us. As of now Nawaz Sharifs good intentions of moving forward the process of dialogue is viewed by India only as a compulsory preference and not a policy. Until we make some really tough strategic choices so essential to our security and prosperity the Indians will neither be impressed nor view with seriousness the offer of dialogue by our Prime Minister. So it is not a matter of reaching out to India but essentially a matter of reaching in to implement the much needed security reforms so essential to fight terrorism and maintain order across our country. Given Indias past experience Nawaz Sharif will continue to be reminded on how the military operation in Kargil stood out as a black mark against his peace seeking government in the previous tenure. One cannot blame India to wait and see how Pakistans deeply entrenched institutions like the military and the powerful bureaucracy stand up this time around to support Nawaz Sharif.
Bringing terrorism and militancy under control will be a drawn- out process. The future of our relationship with India it seems will rely on how best we are able to challenge and meet this threat at home. Only after we have done our homework and done it well too that our desire of peace with India might finally take the shape of reality. It will take some doing and for all those including our Prime Minister who are in haste to see the two hostile neighbours getting together soon to sort out their problems I can only say: Not so soon; not before we have done our homework.
The writer, a retired Lt Col, is a research scholar doing PhD in civil-military relations from Karachi University.
Why peace is elusive?
Wednesday, August 28, 2013 - Is this a lame-duck government devoid of public mandate to negotiate peace with India? Or is this a government formed by a party that won elections on the slogan of peace with India. In a recent interview with UKs Telegraph newspaper Nawaz Sharif claimed, We didnt have any India-bashing slogans in the elections. We dont believe in such slogans. There have been such slogans in the past 10 years ago, 20 years ago but not now. In fact, I very clearly spoke about good relations with India even before the elections. A vast majority of people of Pakistan have trusted and mandated this government to move ahead and revive the stalled peace process with New Delhi. It is in light of such a public mandate that Nawaz Sharif pursues his current political strategy of handling the escalating tensions at LOC with dialogue. Why then New Delhi cant break away from such obstacles and barriers in the past like suspicion, disbelief and misgivings in our inter-state relationship and respond to Nawaz Sharifs extended hand of friendship?
The abrupt creation of NSC(National Security Council) something that Nawaz Sharif had vehemently opposed in past also goes to demonstrate how both the political and military elite in Pakistan are now together on board in mending the historical fractures that have been the hallmark of relations between the two neighboring States. The civil-military institutional banding at this stage it seems is designed to create an impression that both the civilian and the military elite realize the importance of embracing a renewed security agenda and response without implementing which the credibility of pursuing peace as an instrument of policy will largely remain doubtful. Regardless of how the civil-military nexus collaborates at least by formulating NSC the government has tactically agreed to give a joint civil-military platform to institutionalize our security response. Something that has not happened before and something that the Indians will be closely watching.
The restraint also being shown by Pakistan Army in the recent LOC flare up despite the Indian provocations also reflects the civil-military unison commitment to peace. The release of 364 Indian prisoners is also meant to further convey to India that no matter what, peace with India is a compulsive strategic choice that Pakistan today seeks.
Having said this, the reality is that India unlike Pakistan is under no compulsion to speed up the dialogue process. While the civil government and the military in Pakistan may realize now that we suffer as a nation because we left our security problems unaddressed for far too long, there seem to be no immediate Indian insecurities that early resumption of peace dialogue with Pakistan may address. However, what the Indians need to carefully review is that resumption of India-Pakistan peace dialogue will have a direct bearing on how Pakistan strategizes to handle its insecurities on the western border. The likely unpleasant developments in Afghanistan not far from now after the ISAFs drawdown is completed can be best handled if Pakistan and India agree on certain security commitments on the eastern front. This will give that necessary leverage to our political and military leadership to go about eradicating militancy as the most important evil with the manpower and resources spared from the eastern front. Else if militancy spirals out of control then not only Pakistan but the complete region will experience its negative fallout and destabilize.
Viewed realistically India will wait and see what constitutes our much-awaited reviewed and renewed national security policy. It will like to first see the emerging picture of transition and only when this transition takes the shape of reality that it may finally indulge in a meaningful and sustainable peace dialogue with us. As of now Nawaz Sharifs good intentions of moving forward the process of dialogue is viewed by India only as a compulsory preference and not a policy. Until we make some really tough strategic choices so essential to our security and prosperity the Indians will neither be impressed nor view with seriousness the offer of dialogue by our Prime Minister. So it is not a matter of reaching out to India but essentially a matter of reaching in to implement the much needed security reforms so essential to fight terrorism and maintain order across our country. Given Indias past experience Nawaz Sharif will continue to be reminded on how the military operation in Kargil stood out as a black mark against his peace seeking government in the previous tenure. One cannot blame India to wait and see how Pakistans deeply entrenched institutions like the military and the powerful bureaucracy stand up this time around to support Nawaz Sharif.
Bringing terrorism and militancy under control will be a drawn- out process. The future of our relationship with India it seems will rely on how best we are able to challenge and meet this threat at home. Only after we have done our homework and done it well too that our desire of peace with India might finally take the shape of reality. It will take some doing and for all those including our Prime Minister who are in haste to see the two hostile neighbours getting together soon to sort out their problems I can only say: Not so soon; not before we have done our homework.
The writer, a retired Lt Col, is a research scholar doing PhD in civil-military relations from Karachi University.
Why peace is elusive?
