Why Pakistan's militants can still strike at will

[Zarvan]

A recent army operation in North Waziristan flushed out many militants in the area
Continue reading the main story
Taliban Conflict

In recent months the fortunes and allegiances of Pakistan's militants have proved mercurial. Formerly united fronts fractured while the army drove others out of their strongholds. Then al-Qaeda said it would take the initiative in South Asia proving, as the BBC's M Ilyas Khan reports, that the insurgents are still a potent force.

The claim by al-Qaeda that it carried out the 13 September attack on the Pakistan Navy's dockyard in Karachi city yet again shows the militants' ability to strike deep in Pakistan despite recent setbacks.

In a statement placed on one of its web portals, al-Qaeda claimed the operatives of its recently launched wing - al-Qaeda in the Indian Sub-continent (AQIS) - seized control of a Pakistani frigate in order to attack some nearby American vessels.

Karachi's naval dockyard has long been a prime militant target
Few will believe that - not only because Pakistani forces have been able to contain similar attacks in the past, but also because the present one comes when a major offensive by the military has disrupted the militants' command centres in Miranshah, North Waziristan.

The Pakistani navy said it repelled the attack, killing two militants and capturing four others. It said it thwarted what looked like the militants' attempt to carry out an attack along the lines of the bombing of the USS Cole in Yemen in 2000.

'Soft' militant policy
Both al-Qaeda and the Pakistani government said the attack was carried out with inside help. This admission comes as a stark reminder of the lingering concerns about the ability of jihadi militants to penetrate Pakistan's security installations.

But could a group whose formation was only announced on 4 September mount such an audacious attack just days later?

It would seem unlikely, unless one considers the Pakistani military's alleged "soft" policy towards militants in the past, and al-Qaeda's local links that go back more than two decades.

Militants based themselves in Pakistan's tribal areas, where many foreign fighters also settled
The military exposed its lower and middle ranks to a wave of radicalisation that came with the Afghan war of the 1980s. Its adoption of jihad as one of its three mottoes (the others being faith in God, and fear of God) created sympathy in its ranks for militancy and the Afghan jihad, and led to its subsequent anti-Americanism in the post-9/11 period.

During the Afghan war, and later the 1989-2003 "jihad" in Indian-administered Kashmir, Pakistan's ISI intelligence service was widely accused of having worked closely with militant groups, training and arming them and underwriting their operations.

Due to the Saudi origins of its leadership, al-Qaeda emerged as the "holiest", and also the wealthiest of militant groups in the South Asian region.

Same old leaders
The organisation was formed in the city of Peshawar in late 1980s, and a number of top Pakistani militant leaders played a role in shaping its training, planning, operational and propaganda arms.

The death of Hakimullah Mehsud exposed divisions in the militant network
The recently appointed chief of al-Qaeda in South Asia, Asim Umar, is a Pakistani militant who has spent years with al-Qaeda leaders in North Waziristan where he moved in the early 2000s and set up his own group.

Prior to that, he worked with such Kashmir-focused groups as Harkatul Mujahideen and Jaish-e-Mohammad. So neither the AQIS nor its leaders are new to the region or the task at hand.

Over the years, militants trained in North Waziristan have proved their ability to strike pretty much any target in Pakistan, irrespective of which group claims the responsibility.

The same is the case now.

After the Pakistan military offensive, attacks in Pakistan virtually ceased
Since the Pakistani military offensive, which started in mid-June, militant attacks virtually ceased in Pakistan, suggesting significant disruption to militant networks.

Internal divisions in the militants also came to the fore as the main umbrella group of Pakistani Taliban, the TTP, split into at least three regional factions.

But in the past couple of weeks, there have been signs the insurgents might be coming back to life.

Last month, militants said to be affiliated with a Mehsud faction of TTP and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) launched a synchronized attack on two air bases in the south-western city of Quetta.

More than 10 of them died in the fighting that broke out.

Foreign fighters
There have also been a couple of suicide attacks on police in the northwest, and a raid on a Pakistani border post from Afghan territory - claimed by another break-away faction of the TTP which calls itself Jamiat-e-Ahrar.

Not to be left behind, the central TTP franchise led by Mullah Fazlullah claimed the naval dockyard attack. In hindsight, one would imagine they are happy to share the accolades with AQIS as they never contradicted the latter's claim.

As the army's offensive in North Waziristan rumbles on, there certainly seems to be a race among the various militant factions to show that they are still alive and kicking.

For al-Qaeda, it may well be a signal to the Iraq-based Islamic State (IS) that it's still in charge in the South Asian region.

While it may struggle to mount attacks in India, it has plenty of followers in countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Maldives, some of whose citizens have been training in North Waziristan.

In addition, there has been a strong presence of militants from Central Asia, north-west China, Middle East, the Caucasus region and the Far East.

Traditionally, most of the foreign groups have tended to gravitate towards al-Qaeda and its TTP allies.

Sources say the AQIS is now planning to consolidate these groups into a new force, separate from the Afghan Taliban who, according to sources, are seen by the al-Qaeda leadership as "indigenous" both in terms of ethnicity and ideological aims.
BBC News - Why Pakistan's militants can still strike at will
@Horus @Arsalan @ajpirzada @Oscar @WebMaster @Areesh @fatman17 and others

 

[Winchester]

Strike at will is misleading
Still a potent force but ability to carry out large scale operations has been deminished

 

[fatman17]

View attachment 80477
A recent army operation in North Waziristan flushed out many militants in the area
Continue reading the main story
Taliban Conflict
In recent months the fortunes and allegiances of Pakistan's militants have proved mercurial. Formerly united fronts fractured while the army drove others out of their strongholds. Then al-Qaeda said it would take the initiative in South Asia proving, as the BBC's M Ilyas Khan reports, that the insurgents are still a potent force.

The claim by al-Qaeda that it carried out the 13 September attack on the Pakistan Navy's dockyard in Karachi city yet again shows the militants' ability to strike deep in Pakistan despite recent setbacks.

In a statement placed on one of its web portals, al-Qaeda claimed the operatives of its recently launched wing - al-Qaeda in the Indian Sub-continent (AQIS) - seized control of a Pakistani frigate in order to attack some nearby American vessels.

View attachment 80478
Karachi's naval dockyard has long been a prime militant target
Few will believe that - not only because Pakistani forces have been able to contain similar attacks in the past, but also because the present one comes when a major offensive by the military has disrupted the militants' command centres in Miranshah, North Waziristan.

The Pakistani navy said it repelled the attack, killing two militants and capturing four others. It said it thwarted what looked like the militants' attempt to carry out an attack along the lines of the bombing of the USS Cole in Yemen in 2000.

'Soft' militant policy
Both al-Qaeda and the Pakistani government said the attack was carried out with inside help. This admission comes as a stark reminder of the lingering concerns about the ability of jihadi militants to penetrate Pakistan's security installations.

But could a group whose formation was only announced on 4 September mount such an audacious attack just days later?

It would seem unlikely, unless one considers the Pakistani military's alleged "soft" policy towards militants in the past, and al-Qaeda's local links that go back more than two decades.

View attachment 80479
Militants based themselves in Pakistan's tribal areas, where many foreign fighters also settled
The military exposed its lower and middle ranks to a wave of radicalisation that came with the Afghan war of the 1980s. Its adoption of jihad as one of its three mottoes (the others being faith in God, and fear of God) created sympathy in its ranks for militancy and the Afghan jihad, and led to its subsequent anti-Americanism in the post-9/11 period.

During the Afghan war, and later the 1989-2003 "jihad" in Indian-administered Kashmir, Pakistan's ISI intelligence service was widely accused of having worked closely with militant groups, training and arming them and underwriting their operations.

Due to the Saudi origins of its leadership, al-Qaeda emerged as the "holiest", and also the wealthiest of militant groups in the South Asian region.

Same old leaders
The organisation was formed in the city of Peshawar in late 1980s, and a number of top Pakistani militant leaders played a role in shaping its training, planning, operational and propaganda arms.

View attachment 80480
The death of Hakimullah Mehsud exposed divisions in the militant network
The recently appointed chief of al-Qaeda in South Asia, Asim Umar, is a Pakistani militant who has spent years with al-Qaeda leaders in North Waziristan where he moved in the early 2000s and set up his own group.

Prior to that, he worked with such Kashmir-focused groups as Harkatul Mujahideen and Jaish-e-Mohammad. So neither the AQIS nor its leaders are new to the region or the task at hand.

Over the years, militants trained in North Waziristan have proved their ability to strike pretty much any target in Pakistan, irrespective of which group claims the responsibility.

The same is the case now.

View attachment 80481
After the Pakistan military offensive, attacks in Pakistan virtually ceased
Since the Pakistani military offensive, which started in mid-June, militant attacks virtually ceased in Pakistan, suggesting significant disruption to militant networks.

Internal divisions in the militants also came to the fore as the main umbrella group of Pakistani Taliban, the TTP, split into at least three regional factions.

But in the past couple of weeks, there have been signs the insurgents might be coming back to life.

Last month, militants said to be affiliated with a Mehsud faction of TTP and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) launched a synchronized attack on two air bases in the south-western city of Quetta.

More than 10 of them died in the fighting that broke out.

Foreign fighters
There have also been a couple of suicide attacks on police in the northwest, and a raid on a Pakistani border post from Afghan territory - claimed by another break-away faction of the TTP which calls itself Jamiat-e-Ahrar.

Not to be left behind, the central TTP franchise led by Mullah Fazlullah claimed the naval dockyard attack. In hindsight, one would imagine they are happy to share the accolades with AQIS as they never contradicted the latter's claim.

As the army's offensive in North Waziristan rumbles on, there certainly seems to be a race among the various militant factions to show that they are still alive and kicking.

View attachment 80482
For al-Qaeda, it may well be a signal to the Iraq-based Islamic State (IS) that it's still in charge in the South Asian region.

While it may struggle to mount attacks in India, it has plenty of followers in countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Maldives, some of whose citizens have been training in North Waziristan.

In addition, there has been a strong presence of militants from Central Asia, north-west China, Middle East, the Caucasus region and the Far East.

Traditionally, most of the foreign groups have tended to gravitate towards al-Qaeda and its TTP allies.

Sources say the AQIS is now planning to consolidate these groups into a new force, separate from the Afghan Taliban who, according to sources, are seen by the al-Qaeda leadership as "indigenous" both in terms of ethnicity and ideological aims.
BBC News - Why Pakistan's militants can still strike at will
@Horus @Arsalan @ajpirzada @Oscar @WebMaster @Areesh @fatman17 and others

very speculative article.....

 

[farhan_9909]

Ofcourse we can't expect a complete cease in Terrorist strikes and it will take atleast 2-3more years.But the terrorist activities in Pakistan has hit a record low.

 

[ajpirzada]

it will become more clearer as weeks pass by. Its always bad analysis to claim victory during the time of the operation. Normally talibans disperse during the operation time and return with their splinter attacks as the operation starts to get old.

The next few weeks will show how successful this operation was when it comes to limiting militants ability to strike the civilian population

 

[Arsalan]

it will become more clearer as weeks pass by. Its always bad analysis to claim victory during the time of the operation. Normally talibans disperse during the operation time and return with their splinter attacks as the operation starts to get old.

The next few weeks will show how successful this operation was when it comes to limiting militants ability to strike the civilian population

Exactly!
I guess it is a bit premature to start commenting on the out come of the operation.
For now, on paper and even on ground, it looks Pakistani Security forces are doing a pretty decent job. They are making life for these terrorist organizations difficult and all this is also clear from the news of what is happening in Taliban ranks. The force is being disintegrated.
However, this is pretty much who the have survived for so many years, when the pressure mounts they disperse and go into hidings only to come back later when things cools off.
So as mentioned only time well tell. The last few weeks of the operation and a few weeks after it is completed will give a better picture. What is more important then the operation itself to wipe out these terrorists will be empowerment of locals and rehabilitation. Better education, sense of equality with rest of Pakistanis and justice and better job opportunities to earn livelihood will go distance in bringing peace to this region. In short, i think that the operation is just half job done, how government and law enforcement agencies tackle the situation in months to come will be equally, if not more important.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Exactly!
I guess it is a bit premature to start commenting on the out come of the operation.
For now, on paper and even on ground, it looks Pakistani Security forces are doing a pretty decent job. They are making life for these terrorist organizations difficult and all this is also clear from the news of what is happening in Taliban ranks. The force is being disintegrated.
However, this is pretty much who the have survived for so many years, when the pressure mounts they disperse and go into hidings only to come back later when things cools off.
So as mentioned only time well tell. The last few weeks of the operation and a few weeks after it is completed will give a better picture. What is more important then the operation itself to wipe out these terrorists will be empowerment of locals and rehabilitation. Better education, sense of equality with rest of Pakistanis and justice and better job opportunities to earn livelihood will go distance in bringing peace to this region. In short, i think that the operation is just half job done, how government and law enforcement agencies tackle the situation in months to come will be equally, if not more important.

the real fight needs to be waged inside the cities
the link between their financiers and supporters has to be broken.

when the top terrorists are showered with flowers and garlanded from the courts then it doesn't send the correct message and shows to impressionable youth that killing fellow Pakistanis and blowing up things earns you praise and fame in this world and definitely 70+ virgins in afterlife.

few weeks ago.. the front face of LeJ came out of red Mosque and openly declared that it will exterminate shias and those participating in the sit in protests

 

[Arsalan]

the real fight needs to be waged inside the cities
the link between their financiers and supporters has to be broken.

when the top terrorists are showered with flowers and garlanded from the courts then it doesn't send the correct message and shows to impressionable youth that killing fellow Pakistanis and blowing up things earns you praise and fame in this world and definitely 70+ virgins in afterlife.

few weeks ago.. the front face of LeJ came out of red Mosque and openly declared that it will exterminate shias and those participating in the sit in protests

Totally agreed Sir. That is why we cannot rule out a military operation. That was absolutely necessary and as i said, half job is done by the success of Pakistan Military Forces in the operation. However whether these success are long term or only temporary depends on how it ends and how it is tackled after it ends.
Once the army get its job done it will be time for government and local bodies to step up and take charge, surely, as history tell us, Army will still be an integral part (if not the only functional group) through out the rebuilding and rehabilitation process but government need to take some responsibility as well. I am only saying that it will be that phase of the process that will truly determine if we have damaged the enemy enough. It is a bit early to announce if we have Won this battle or God forbade Lost it!

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Totally agreed Sir. That is why we cannot rule out a military operation. That was absolutely necessary and as i said, half job is done by the success of Pakistan Military Forces in the operation. However whether these success are long term or only temporary depends on how it ends and how it is tackled after it ends.
Once the army get its job done it will be time for government and local bodies to step up and take charge, surely, as history tell us, Army will still be an integral part (if not the only functional group) through out the rebuilding and rehabilitation process but government need to take some responsibility as well. I am only saying that it will be that phase of the process that will truly determine if we have damaged the enemy enough. It is a bit early to announce if we have Won this battle or God forbade Lost it!

time and again i have bee telling my fellow members here to come off the high horse and stop declaring the funeral of TTP
its a long war and these guys are experts in vanishing. they wait us out and specially on the opinion side .. they haven't lost much ground.
the face book and twitter is still littered with their praise. our rich urban class is constantly advocating the cause of TTP on the web the places like Red Mosque and its associated people and their supporters in the media openly mock and taunt the Pakistan army and its fight.

ISPR has much to do and sadly the government is trying to save itself from the protesters, its ministers are mostly reacting to what Qadri or Imran said last night or crying over the alleged ISI/ PA hand in toppling them.

the government has to get its act together . and relieve some of the police personnel from its VIP duties and IB from recording and monitoring calls and meetings of its political opponents
the civilians must organise raids against the suspected terrorist hideouts with the help of ISI and Pak army.. this is what will really sap the capabilities of the terrorists.

BBC is just following the over used copy pasted Indian narrative of "told you so" why it wont work and then bombard the article with Kashmiri militant organisations.. their motive is always to question the Pakistan army's war effort. wish they were also as frank about the Indian involvement in Afghanistan which is specifically geared against Pakistan.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

very speculative article.....

Will you be so kind as to specifically indicate the speculative parts of the article. And rebut them if you can?

 

[ghoul]

Their top leadership needs to be eliminated if Pakistan really seeks to finish terrorism. Pakistan needs to carry out Mossad like intelligence operations to achieve that.

 

[Arsalan]

time and again i have bee telling my fellow members here to come off the high horse and stop declaring the funeral of TTP
its a long war and these guys are experts in vanishing. they wait us out and specially on the opinion side .. they haven't lost much ground.
the face book and twitter is still littered with their praise. our rich urban class is constantly advocating the cause of TTP on the web the places like Red Mosque and its associated people and their supporters in the media openly mock and taunt the Pakistan army and its fight.

ISPR has much to do and sadly the government is trying to save itself from the protesters, its ministers are mostly reacting to what Qadri or Imran said last night or crying over the alleged ISI/ PA hand in toppling them.

the government has to get its act together . and relieve some of the police personnel from its VIP duties and IB from recording and monitoring calls and meetings of its political opponents
the civilians must organise raids against the suspected terrorist hideouts with the help of ISI and Pak army.. this is what will really sap the capabilities of the terrorists.

BBC is just following the over used copy pasted Indian narrative of "told you so" why it wont work and then bombard the article with Kashmiri militant organisations.. their motive is always to question the Pakistan army's war effort. wish they were also as frank about the Indian involvement in Afghanistan which is specifically geared against Pakistan.

While i agree with most of what you said, let me begin with the part i am not quite sure about.

Support for TTP in our Rich Urban class? i do not see much of that. I mean, there might be a very few people who do support the ideology of TTP but they too do not support there actions. These too i personally thing are mostly from backward areas and there thinking is mainly attributed to lack of knowledge and education. I do not see the rich urban class in support of TTP, it they are it is a news for me, and a shocking one indeed. Will like to learn a bit more about that if you possibly can tell.

Regarding the government response, i totally agree, it have been as poor as we would have expected. I think army by now have learn that in any crisis situation they will have to step up and handle things, be it insurgency or natural disasters, heck our police was not even able to handle Lal Masjid. We need to call army to restore peace in our only true metropolitan city - Karachi. So by now i think army is well drilled in these matters. Still no one can deny that a positive role from Government will do wonders in restoring peace and reaping true benefits from this operation against the terrorists outfits, without that, the advantage might slip up.

The protests from PTI and PAT have come at a wrong time as far as operation Zarb-e-Azb is concerned but then again, you cant blame the protestors only, the government with all its incompetency played an equally important role to bring things to this point. Had measure been taken at the right time and justice provided when everyone was crying for that it would not have happened, not at least with that much support of public. As you said, must get there act right NOW and step up to resolve the issues nations faces today.

For BBC, you are right that they are only trying to down play Pakistan military's efforts in this whole saga, what more can we expect sir? They don't allow us to seal the border and then cry that militants are crossing over from Pakistan. If that is the case then why not allow to seal the border? TTP are being nourished in Afghanistan. They say that there still are some people in ISI with a soft corner for Taliban, wont there be a few in CIA as well?? i mean, they their Mujaheddin as much as they were ours. Soft corner or not, this is a proven fact where TTP is getting its training and support from and what role India is playing in Afghanistan. Sadly we cant blame BBC for not shedding some light on it when our own pathetic media is not covering and SHOUTING about it, yes, they MUST BE SHOUTING about it as Indian media did in Mumbai attacks. But our media is silent about it and we cannot accept BBC or CNN or Doordarshan to say that TTP are being supported by CIA and RAW!

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Support for TTP in our Rich Urban class? i do not see much of that. I mean, there might be a very few people who do support the ideology of TTP but they too do not support there actions. These too i personally thing are mostly from backward areas and there thinking is mainly attributed to lack of knowledge and education.

they are few but even one of them carries 100 times more weight than the illiterate and poor that end up in madrassahs and serve as the gun fodder.
the people I am talking about are few but very committed .. I didnt mean the ones that that only verbally sympathise with AQ and TTP ..
I see them as much bigger problem. I have seen them in action personally and they are the ones that escape the scrutiny of our agencies because they are rich and educated .

a false notion that all terrorists are stupid, dumb, poor, angry and emotional brought up in poor families, molested in madrasas and then trained to kill civilians and soldiers.

the people I am talking about have provided logistical support to the terrorists that conducted high end operations against Pakistani installations. I am talking about Bankers, Lawyers, scientists, doctors and engineers.. who have been either caught or escaped. 2 nuclear scientists tried to offer their services to Al Qeda to make a bomb.

A banker in Islamabad decided to join the TTP after (according to him) Pakistan army dropped bombs on Red Mosque and killed thousands of innocent and unarmed students. there was an article in Dawn about the affluent class in islamabad that has been recently radicalized that believes that white phosphorus and rape was used against the Red Mosque unarmed occupants. there was a part played in fabricating the stories about the operation that resulted in such a violent reaction against Pakistan army and Musharraf. (dont forget the judges and lawyers who despite complelling evidence and proud confessions by the terrorists, dont convict them)

A son of a former nuclear scientist hailed from a rich family in Islamabad and said rape and culling is justified to make a pure Pakistan. the guy is MBA graduate and lives a plush and comfortable life .. he is fair skinned , soft spoken, fluent in English and clean shaven and loaded with all the must have gadgets that West has to offer, he may not be actively involved in any terrorism but his point of view is very clear and he was really hurt when i questioned him.

I dont mean to extrapolate one of two experiences on the entire population but some similar news and blogs do show such tendency.


for me its the most dangerous aspect of terrorists. these guys dont appear suspicious and they hit you the hardest.

woner if you can recall an attack on an intelligence office in Lahore. all the attackers were suited in western clothes and they took out the entire security detail in the initial minutes while it was still in shock and surprise. again i dont mean to suggest that they all belonged to families of millionaires and were sons of stock brokers and businessmen but they used the attire of the group which has such people hurting us the most

 

[VCheng]

they are few but even one of them carries 100 times more weight than the illiterate and poor that end up in madrassahs and serve as the gun fodder.
the people I am talking about are few but very committed .. I didnt mean the ones that that only verbally sympathise with AQ and TTP ..
I see them as much bigger problem. I have seen them in action personally and they are the ones that escape the scrutiny of our agencies because they are rich and educated .

a false notion that all terrorists are stupid, dumb, poor, angry and emotional brought up in poor families, molested in madrasas and then trained to kill civilians and soldiers.

the people I am talking about have provided logistical support to the terrorists that conducted high end operations against Pakistani installations. I am talking about Bankers, Lawyers, scientists, doctors and engineers.. who have been either caught or escaped. 2 nuclear scientists tried to offer their services to Al Qeda to make a bomb.

A banker in Islamabad decided to join the TTP after (according to him) Pakistan army dropped bombs on Red Mosque and killed thousands of innocent and unarmed students. there was an article in Dawn about the affluent class in islamabad that has been recently radicalized that believes that white phosphorus and rape was used against the Red Mosque unarmed occupants. there was a part played in fabricating the stories about the operation that resulted in such a violent reaction against Pakistan army and Musharraf. (dont forget the judges and lawyers who despite complelling evidence and proud confessions by the terrorists, dont convict them)

A son of a former nuclear scientist hailed from a rich family in Islamabad and said rape and culling is justified to make a pure Pakistan. the guy is MBA graduate and lives a plush and comfortable life .. he is fair skinned , soft spoken, fluent in English and clean shaven and loaded with all the must have gadgets that West has to offer, he may not be actively involved in any terrorism but his point of view is very clear and he was really hurt when i questioned him.

I dont mean to extrapolate one of two experiences on the entire population but some similar news and blogs do show such tendency.


for me its the most dangerous aspect of terrorists. these guys dont appear suspicious and they hit you the hardest.

woner if you can recall an attack on an intelligence office in Lahore. all the attackers were suited in western clothes and they took out the entire security detail in the initial minutes while it was still in shock and surprise. again i dont mean to suggest that they all belonged to families of millionaires and were sons of stock brokers and businessmen but they used the attire of the group which has such people hurting us the most

These are just examples of the warning signs of a society drifting into self-destruction by misguided choice.

 

[Reichmarshal]

after PA is done with noth waziristan.......operation will be launched through out PAKISTAN