fatman17
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Why Pakistan Matters?
Saturday , 15 March 2008
* By Hasan Selim Ozertem (USAK)
Politics is one of the disciplines that do not lie on a linear basis. There are ups and downs as well as some corner stones and peculiarities of this area. A person who has some special interest on political history would know that there are some crucial points, in which historians always give specific references to certain events to be able to classify and explain the general trend in an easier manner.
Transition periods are the most blurred ones in this sense, because predicting a short time-frame becomes almost impossible in these times. Some scholars try to simplify these patterns by trying to formulate and find some theories by making comparisons looking at the previous experiences and examples. However, there is no guarantee for these formulations to work as in mechanics.
In this sense, Pakistan is in a situation of transition in its region not only in political sense, but also in terms of international relations. We can say that beginning of 21st century was not that smooth if we refresh our minds a little and remember two important events of history.
First of all just a decade ago, the Soviet Empire collapsed and bipolar world, met with the uni-polar system in which the US hegemony was a reality. This change caused some roles to be redefined in the Euro-Atlantic alliance as well as their partners as a whole. Pakistan is one of these countries, when its role in Afghan War in 1980s recalled. Then 9/11 changed the whole picture as the world evolving from uni-polar to the multipolar structure fashion. Afghanistan as a failed state was announced as the home of radical terrorists and NATO has launched its troops to build up stability in the region. Pakistans role again was emphasized as being neighbor and its position as the stabilizing actor discussed by many experts. Even though it was criticized of not taking necessary measures against instability, its efforts should be supported when the geographic situation and the lack of resources in the country for sustaining border security are taken into account. Thus, it can be said that it has not lost its importance in strategic terms, but its role evolved into something else by preserving its pivotal characteristic.
Political Instability and After the Elections
Democratization has become one of the main concepts of 20th and 21st century. Pakistan is not out of this process as well. As known, after becoming independent, this process was disturbed due to several reasons and coups in the country. Thus, democratization itself can be mentioned in the domestic transition in Pakistan. However, talking about this concept, historical, cultural and structural basis of the country should be taken into account.
Recently the political volatility has gained basis once again in the country, as the process of presidential and parliamentary elections started and both Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto decided to turn back home in 2007. As we all know, Bhutto lost her life in December due to a bomb attack and the elections was put off. It should be underlined here that the political elite successfully managed this crisis by taking effective steps instantly and may be prevented a possible civil war.
Observers reported that the elections, which was held in 18 February 2008, was democratic and fair, in spite of several problems. Bhuttos Pakistan Peoples Party has become the winner and with Nawaz Sharifs Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) they agreed to form a coalition. The main issue is to decide who will be the PM, right now. Sharif insists on Asif Zardari to become the PM, but due to several bureaucratic obstacles the discussions are going on.
Democratization itself is a complicated and long process. Fair and accountable elections are sine qua non in this framework. However, it is not sufficient itself. Economic, cultural and social development as well as political and regional stability should be indicated here.
Pakistan and Regional Stability
Located in the coast of Arabian Sea and having neighbors like India, Iran and Afghanistan the problematic situation of the country should be analyzed carefully. Pakistans population is almost 165 million and 97% of the population is Muslim. (77% Sunni, 20% Shiite)[1] Only 47% of the country is literate[2] and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country is only $126.8 billion[3].
Its economic scale when its population and geostrategic position are thought does not reflect the potential of the country. It represents a threshold for Asian continent. However, ongoing war in Afghanistan, the dispute between India and Pakistan are the main obstacles for development. Moreover, Irans political stance and sanctions against this country makes Pakistan to be stuck in Asia.
In terms of energy politics, projects like Trans Afghan Pipeline (TAP) could not be realized due to Taliban regime in Afghanistan and Peace Pipeline Project which aims to transport Iranian gas to India via Pakistan has a doubtful future.
Again in terms of energy Pakistan has a comparative advantage. This country has located in a close geography both to the Middle East and Caspian region. Thus, it has a great potential in this framework and also rational policies can make this country a center of attraction for petro-dollar rich states, which are selling their one barrel for more than $100 right now.
In terms of global security, Pakistans role in Afghanistan cannot be ignored. As known Afghanistan is one of the main centers for drug trafficking in global scale and the instability in the country negatively affects both region and the world. However, it is a reality that instability in Pakistan would cause deeper problems, so international community should support the stability in the country.
Finding solutions to regional conflicts, trying to resolve economic, social and cultural problems are among the main challenges of the upcoming government. Regional cooperation, political stability and developments in the aforementioned areas will pave the way for democracy to gain basis in the country. Without trying to satisfy these requirements and using comparative advantages of the country, it would be hard to expect miracles, not in the short term but also in the longer period. Thus, it can be said that 2008 can be recalled as one of the milestones in Pakistans political history and the beginning of a new transition process or any other year of problems and instability.
a lot of chatter coming out of turkey these days
Saturday , 15 March 2008
* By Hasan Selim Ozertem (USAK)
Politics is one of the disciplines that do not lie on a linear basis. There are ups and downs as well as some corner stones and peculiarities of this area. A person who has some special interest on political history would know that there are some crucial points, in which historians always give specific references to certain events to be able to classify and explain the general trend in an easier manner.
Transition periods are the most blurred ones in this sense, because predicting a short time-frame becomes almost impossible in these times. Some scholars try to simplify these patterns by trying to formulate and find some theories by making comparisons looking at the previous experiences and examples. However, there is no guarantee for these formulations to work as in mechanics.
In this sense, Pakistan is in a situation of transition in its region not only in political sense, but also in terms of international relations. We can say that beginning of 21st century was not that smooth if we refresh our minds a little and remember two important events of history.
First of all just a decade ago, the Soviet Empire collapsed and bipolar world, met with the uni-polar system in which the US hegemony was a reality. This change caused some roles to be redefined in the Euro-Atlantic alliance as well as their partners as a whole. Pakistan is one of these countries, when its role in Afghan War in 1980s recalled. Then 9/11 changed the whole picture as the world evolving from uni-polar to the multipolar structure fashion. Afghanistan as a failed state was announced as the home of radical terrorists and NATO has launched its troops to build up stability in the region. Pakistans role again was emphasized as being neighbor and its position as the stabilizing actor discussed by many experts. Even though it was criticized of not taking necessary measures against instability, its efforts should be supported when the geographic situation and the lack of resources in the country for sustaining border security are taken into account. Thus, it can be said that it has not lost its importance in strategic terms, but its role evolved into something else by preserving its pivotal characteristic.
Political Instability and After the Elections
Democratization has become one of the main concepts of 20th and 21st century. Pakistan is not out of this process as well. As known, after becoming independent, this process was disturbed due to several reasons and coups in the country. Thus, democratization itself can be mentioned in the domestic transition in Pakistan. However, talking about this concept, historical, cultural and structural basis of the country should be taken into account.
Recently the political volatility has gained basis once again in the country, as the process of presidential and parliamentary elections started and both Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto decided to turn back home in 2007. As we all know, Bhutto lost her life in December due to a bomb attack and the elections was put off. It should be underlined here that the political elite successfully managed this crisis by taking effective steps instantly and may be prevented a possible civil war.
Observers reported that the elections, which was held in 18 February 2008, was democratic and fair, in spite of several problems. Bhuttos Pakistan Peoples Party has become the winner and with Nawaz Sharifs Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) they agreed to form a coalition. The main issue is to decide who will be the PM, right now. Sharif insists on Asif Zardari to become the PM, but due to several bureaucratic obstacles the discussions are going on.
Democratization itself is a complicated and long process. Fair and accountable elections are sine qua non in this framework. However, it is not sufficient itself. Economic, cultural and social development as well as political and regional stability should be indicated here.
Pakistan and Regional Stability
Located in the coast of Arabian Sea and having neighbors like India, Iran and Afghanistan the problematic situation of the country should be analyzed carefully. Pakistans population is almost 165 million and 97% of the population is Muslim. (77% Sunni, 20% Shiite)[1] Only 47% of the country is literate[2] and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country is only $126.8 billion[3].
Its economic scale when its population and geostrategic position are thought does not reflect the potential of the country. It represents a threshold for Asian continent. However, ongoing war in Afghanistan, the dispute between India and Pakistan are the main obstacles for development. Moreover, Irans political stance and sanctions against this country makes Pakistan to be stuck in Asia.
In terms of energy politics, projects like Trans Afghan Pipeline (TAP) could not be realized due to Taliban regime in Afghanistan and Peace Pipeline Project which aims to transport Iranian gas to India via Pakistan has a doubtful future.
Again in terms of energy Pakistan has a comparative advantage. This country has located in a close geography both to the Middle East and Caspian region. Thus, it has a great potential in this framework and also rational policies can make this country a center of attraction for petro-dollar rich states, which are selling their one barrel for more than $100 right now.
In terms of global security, Pakistans role in Afghanistan cannot be ignored. As known Afghanistan is one of the main centers for drug trafficking in global scale and the instability in the country negatively affects both region and the world. However, it is a reality that instability in Pakistan would cause deeper problems, so international community should support the stability in the country.
Finding solutions to regional conflicts, trying to resolve economic, social and cultural problems are among the main challenges of the upcoming government. Regional cooperation, political stability and developments in the aforementioned areas will pave the way for democracy to gain basis in the country. Without trying to satisfy these requirements and using comparative advantages of the country, it would be hard to expect miracles, not in the short term but also in the longer period. Thus, it can be said that 2008 can be recalled as one of the milestones in Pakistans political history and the beginning of a new transition process or any other year of problems and instability.
a lot of chatter coming out of turkey these days
