Why India's choosing US side to contain China is an epic mistake

[tower9]

there's no such thing as a limited US-China war. Nobody can control the scale of a direct attack on mainland China. US didn't strike the Soviets directly in 1962 and the Soviets only had 12-36 ICBMs back then.

The US is far more insecure and desperate now than ever before. All bets are off. All of this buildup is meant to go somewhere. Everyone who says this is unthinkable are the same people who thought Trumps trade war when it started is just for show and to get a few deals.

there's no such thing as a limited US-China war. Nobody can control the scale of a direct attack on mainland China. US didn't strike the Soviets directly in 1962 and the Soviets only had 12-36 ICBMs back then.

Also there will not be an attack on mainland China first, it will be an attack on one of China’s scs island

 

[nahtanbob]

Prosperity in 1990 is not same concept of prosperity of 2019. China is the part of reason why they are in 2019 prosperity.

nothing has changed about being rich - 1990 or 2019

 

[Uguduwa]

Because he calculated that Iran wasn't willing to launch a full scale war either. Killing a Chinese or a Russian general on the other hand would be a casus belli. So would bombing the Chinese islands. The US knows it can get away doing things against Iran because they know the capabilities of the Iranina military, and hence their leadership's ability to retaliate. The same cannot be said about China or Russia. The US knows more than well that bombing Chinese islands would instantly lead to a full scale war and possibly even a nuclear war.

US bombed Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia once and Chinese didn't do shit except for ramming a fighter into a surveillance plane which also ended up killing the Chinese pilot later on.

 

[HalfMoon]

First of all, I need to make it clear that India is completely responsible for the recent China-India tensions. After Trump visited India in February, Modi had already made up his mind to join in anti China coalition. From April India army broke the status quo at LAC to build roads and bridges there.

Back to the topic. The best choice for India is, sitting on the fence(plan A). Keeping same distance between China and US. Good choice is joining in China’s side(plan B). Worst choice is Joining in US side(plan C).

1, Why is plan A the best choice? It will guarantee India to make profit from both sides. Both sides are willing to offer bribes to India. After joining in US side, India has lost its strategic flexibility. China of course will become its enemy. For US, it doesn’t have to please India because India has no way back. Before the day India decided to side with US, India was the boss. After, US was the boss.

2, Why plan B is better than plan C? 1) If India joins in China side, its position in the ally will be one of the leader countries. May be next to China. On US side however, India will be one of pawn countries like Australia, Canada, Japan. Maybe even worse. 2) China can help India more than US does. First, China has more free money than US to invest. Second, India’s economic structure is too different than US’. China’s technology transfer is more suitable for India’s industry demands. China is good at infrastructure, energy, electronics, labor-intensive industries. US is good at semiconductors, aircraft, high tech products. US is neither suitable for India’s development phase nor willing to transfer it technologies to India or other counties. The China-US trade war has proven that. 3) China is India’s neighbour. US is too far away. China can help India more, also can hurt India more. I mean much much more.

Modi is not a smart leader. He may want to become Indian version Deng Xiaoping. Who joined in US side during cold war and started a war with China’s neighbour Vietnam, Which demonstrated to the world that China was on US board. And China gained a huge reward by that. But things are different this time.

1, Soviet Union was barely a big economic power. It was an energy and materials supplier. And it’s a declining super power. Leaving it would not cause serious loss. Now, US is the declining super power and China is the biggest and growing industry country.

2, Boycotting Chinese products set a glass ceiling for India’s future development. India can boycott Chinese products because it is an importer. But if Indians have a wider and longer view, they should know China is the world biggest market and will be the biggest technologies transfer source. Giving up China is equal to giving up India’s future. “No China” is okay for present India, but not okay if India wants to upgrade its industry structure. The higher India’s development stage is, the harder the glass ceiling will be.

3, China will not collapse like Soviet Union did. China is way stronger than Soviet Union. Western countries have huge interests in China. Chinese leaders are much smarter than Soviet Union’s leaders. Compared with Russians, Chinese are much hardworking and good at science and economic activities. China will haunt India forever.

Let India make the mistake and partner with the US.

Since India is China's enemy, Chinese should remain silent or covertly support this Indian mistake.

 

[bolo]

US bombed Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia once and Chinese didn't do shit except for ramming a fighter into a surveillance plane which also ended up killing the Chinese pilot later on.

That was back in 1997 or 98 when China did not possess a lot of GPS guided smart bombs/missiles. Times have changed. Now with the Beidou system completed its a whole new ball game.
Since 2007 when the US ran war simulations with their supercomputers vs China, the result came up as a lost for US. US regime may be desperate but they are not stupid like Indian government.

 

[Figaro]

US bombed Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia once and Chinese didn't do shit except for ramming a fighter into a surveillance plane which also ended up killing the Chinese pilot later on.

Well accidents happen. In 1987, Iraq accidentally launched Exocet missiles at the USS Stark, killing 37 American sailors. And yet the US did nothing (on the contrary, it increased its support of Iraq and blamed Iran). Do you know what the difference is between an intentional act and an accident?

That was back in 1997 or 98 when China did not possess a lot of GPS guided smart bombs/missiles. Times have changed. Now with the Beidou system completed its a whole new ball game.
Since 2007 when the US ran war simulations with their supercomputers vs China, the result came up as a lost for US. US regime may be desperate but they are not stupid like Indian government.

There is nothing to prove the incident was not an accident ... IIRC, there was a very important target right next to the Chinese embassy and NATO intelligence miscalculated. As much as the Chinese gov says otherwise, there is simply no proof it was intentional. After all, what would the US have to gain by bombing a Chinese embassy like that?

 

[PradoTLC]

US bombed Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia once and Chinese didn't do shit except for ramming a fighter into a surveillance plane which also ended up killing the Chinese pilot later on.

Dumb analysis.....

IAF bombed USS liberty in 1967 .. the US did nothing

the IAF (Iraq) attacked a US warship in the Iran Iraq war they did nothing?


They were all officially classed as accidents ...

 

[kankan326]

nothing has changed about being rich - 1990 or 2019

The world in 2019 is far richer than 1990.

 

[nahtanbob]

The world in 2019 is far richer than 1990.

You keep dodging the question - which country became rich because of China ? South Korea, Japan were all rich by 1988

 

[kankan326]

You keep dodging the question - which country became rich because of China ? South Korea, Japan were all rich by 1988

I already answered the question at #105. China itself was a poor country just in 10 years. But you can not deny China is the major reason for the world economic growth in last decade.

In 1990, S.Korea GDP was $28 billion. Actually not so rich. You barely saw any S.Korean products in other countries by then. Now its GDP is $1.6 trillion. If it weren't for China, there would not be such big change.