Why India should rejoice in the event of a Sheikh Hasina victory in crucial Bangladesh elections tom

[The Ronin]

December 29, 2018, 2:00 AM IST Subir Bhaumik in TOI Edit Page | Edit Page, India, World | TOI
Bangladesh’s 11th parliamentary poll tomorrow is not just an acid test for Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. It is something India is closely watching and the world is not unconcerned about. But Delhi’s priorities are different from those of the West.

With President Donald Trump announcing a phased withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, India has good reason to worry over intensified Islamist militancy by the Taliban and other Pakistan-backed proxies who may not only jeopardise Indian interests in Afghanistan but turn their gaze on Kashmir. The Indian security establishment is bracing for heightened militancy in Kashmir in 2019.

In such a scenario, can India afford a fresh spell of intense militancy in the troubled northeast? The answer is no. Ethnic militancy has dropped in the northeast since 2009, after Sheikh Hasina came to power and ordered a tough crackdown on all northeastern guerrillas and ISI-backed Islamist militants who were operating from Bangladesh during the BNP-Jamaat regime (2001-06). The pro-talks faction of the ULFA and the Daimary faction of the NDFB are on the table because their leaders were nabbed and handed over to India on Hasina’s explicit orders.

The decimated rebel groups in Tripura and Meghalaya have also seemingly given up on armed struggle after the crackdown in Bangladesh. ULFA’s Paresh Barua, in hiding somewhere on the Sino-Burmese border, is keenly awaiting Hasina’s ouster from power to make a comeback in Bangladesh, where he now faces a death penalty for his involvement in the 2004 Chittagong arms case (whose verdict was announced after Hasina returned to power).

Much as it is not easy for India to fight a two-front war against both Pakistan and China, it is also not easy to face a two-front insurgency. Hasina’s zero tolerance against terror and her determination not to allow her soil to be used by the ‘enemies of India’ is as crucial to contain, if not defeat, the insurgencies in northeast as it is to crush Islamist militancy in her own country.

Since ISI remains the chief patron of all these radical armed groups, denial of operational space to Pakistani intelligence in Bangladesh remains a strategic imperative for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as ‘kicking Pakistan out of the East’ was for Indira Gandhi in 1971. The 1971 creation of Bangladesh was a defining moment in containment of northeastern insurgencies, as it was for India’s emergence as the prima donna in South Asia. But it is only in this decade that India has actually reaped the harvest for helping 1971 happen.

Apart from security concerns Hasina has also addressed India’s connectivity needs. Use of Bangladesh ports and her land territory to access northeast will now make it far easier for India to pursue its ‘Act East’ policy. That India had to go for the much more expensive and not yet implemented Kaladan Multi Modal project to access northeast through Myanmar earlier in the century was because the Khaleda regime in Dhaka was not willing to play ball with India.

So, Indians of all political hues would be well within their rights to root for an Awami League victory. A CSDS-Hindu survey had shown in one of its public attitude surveys that Bangladesh is now the country Indians trusts most – more than our traditional friend, Russia. This is clearly a post-Hasina phenomenon. That her father and Bangladesh founder Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s autobiography has now been translated in eight Indian languages, including Assamese, is evidence of the friendly feeling at the popular level.

The West, specially the US, is making much noise over pre-poll violence in Bangladesh. But if Trump can overrule the CIA and come to the rescue of Saudi crown prince Salman after the horrific murder of dissident Jamal Khashoggi, India is well within its rights to rejoice in the event of a poll victory of a leader who has given Bangladesh phenomenal economic and human development, besides obliging India on her key concerns. Unlike US ambassador Robert Miller, Indian envoy Harsh Shringla has rightly maintained a low profile and avoided interfering in the internal affairs of Bangladesh. If Trump can support the autocratic Saudis because it is always ‘America First’ for Trump, why can’t it be ‘India First’ for a billion plus Indians?

DISCLAIMER : Views expressed above are the author's own.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...mnq5o54KnV8ZKmeq97dokU8OSBpq602kq_g8_v93yOhZI

 

[Homo Sapiens]

In such a scenario, can India afford a fresh spell of intense militancy in the troubled northeast? The answer is no. Ethnic militancy has dropped in the northeast since 2009, after Sheikh Hasina came to power and ordered a tough crackdown on all northeastern guerrillas and ISI-backed Islamist militants who were operating from Bangladesh during the BNP-Jamaat regime (2001-06). The pro-talks faction of the ULFA and the Daimary faction of the NDFB are on the table because their leaders were nabbed and handed over to India on Hasina’s explicit orders.

The decimated rebel groups in Tripura and Meghalaya have also seemingly given up on armed struggle after the crackdown in Bangladesh. ULFA’s Paresh Barua, in hiding somewhere on the Sino-Burmese border, is keenly awaiting Hasina’s ouster from power to make a comeback in Bangladesh, where he now faces a death penalty for his involvement in the 2004 Chittagong arms case (whose verdict was announced after Hasina returned to power).

Much as it is not easy for India to fight a two-front war against both Pakistan and China, it is also not easy to face a two-front insurgency. Hasina’s zero tolerance against terror and her determination not to allow her soil to be used by the ‘enemies of India’ is as crucial to contain, if not defeat, the insurgencies in northeast as it is to crush Islamist militancy in her own country.

Since ISI remains the chief patron of all these radical armed groups, denial of operational space to Pakistani intelligence in Bangladesh remains a strategic imperative for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as ‘kicking Pakistan out of the East’ was for Indira Gandhi in 1971. The 1971 creation of Bangladesh was a defining moment in containment of northeastern insurgencies, as it was for India’s emergence as the prima donna in South Asia. But it is only in this decade that India has actually reaped the harvest for helping 1971 happen.

Thanks to this author for pointing out the truths to the common Indians.

A CSDS-Hindu survey had shown in one of its public attitude surveys that Bangladesh is now the country Indians trusts most – more than our traditional friend, Russia.

A very positive development.

 

[Aryan0395]

In the end author asks a really stupid question. We are not US, we dont have financial diplomatic or military clout that they can exercise anywhere. So we cant be overt like them.
We need to lay low and do it behind the curtains.
I would be surprised if R&AW was not involved in some capacity.

 

[dray / Rain Man]

Congratulations Bangladesh for a free and fair election. All the best..