Why I think that India may already have negetive population growth rate

[Dr. Sen]

The latest information about fertility rate of India from 2013 shows that India has a fertility rate of 2.3. That means a couple on average has 2.3 children.

India’s birth rate shrinks: study - Livemint

Now, in a developed country a fertily of 2.1 is required for a population to have no growth or no shrinkage, that is called replacement level fertility. But in developing countries a fertility of 2.5 to sometimes 3.3 is required to keep the population stable. This is because of lack of healthcare. More deaths of children occur due to disease or accidents. Thus a higher fertility rate is required to keep the population stable, and to stop growth or shrinkage of the population.
India has 2.3. And 2.33 is the world average for replacement level fertility. India's 2.3 rate was for 2013 and the rate is decreasing every year. In my humble opinion I think we have entered the negetive population growth phase, that means our population is decreasing.

Total fertility rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (read about replacement level fertility)

 

[PlanetWarrior]

Good. Bring the population down to more or less 60% of its current size and one wouldn't feel like an ant in an ant-heap when walking in the cities

 

[Nicky G]

The latest information about fertility rate of India from 2013 shows that India has a fertility rate of 2.3. That means a couple on average has 2.3 children.

India’s birth rate shrinks: study - Livemint

Now, in a developed country a fertily of 2.1 is required for a population to have no growth or no shrinkage, that is called replacement level fertility. But in developing countries a fertility of 2.5 to sometimes 3.3 is required to keep the population stable. This is because of lack of healthcare. More deaths of children occur due to disease or accidents. Thus a higher fertility rate is required to keep the population stable, and to stop growth or shrinkage of the population.
India has 2.3. And 2.33 is the world average for replacement level fertility. India's 2.3 rate was for 2013 and the rate is decreasing every year. In my humble opinion I think we have entered the negetive population growth phase, that means our population is decreasing.

Total fertility rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (read about replacement level fertility)

Nice catch. I remember watching some documentary about western countries where the population is declining and they did bring up the replacement levels.

The logic seems sound and we should see the impact over the next few decades.

However, there is a cautionary note too. As we grow as an economy both the birth rate and death rate would decline, leading to an aging population that the likes of west and China are now facing.

So when we talk about the youngest workforce in the world, the time is right now to leverage that.

 

[Dr. Sen]

Nice catch. I remember watching some documentary about western countries where the population is declining and they did bring up the replacement levels.

The logic seems sound and we should see the impact over the next few decades.

However, there is a cautionary note too. As we grow as an economy both the birth rate and death rate would decline, leading to an aging population that the likes of west and China are now facing.

So when we talk about the youngest workforce in the world, the time is right now to leverage that.

But a aging population is distant problem for India but that can be solved with allowing easy immigration into the country as by then economy will be good and jobs available. But I dont think thats a problem our generaton will be dealing with.

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

Nice catch. I remember watching some documentary about western countries where the population is declining and they did bring up the replacement levels.

The logic seems sound and we should see the impact over the next few decades.

However, there is a cautionary note too. As we grow as an economy both the birth rate and death rate would decline, leading to an aging population that the likes of west and China are now facing.

So when we talk about the youngest workforce in the world, the time is right now to leverage that.

It doesnnt. Southern States , NE states, and western states have reached their goal of reduction very well within limits. Its the North that still makes up for all the lesser growth in the other states. I hope Akilesh does something in this reg.

 

[Dr. Sen]

the North that still makes up for all the lesser growth in the other states. I hope Akilesh does something in this reg.

Even the North fertility is decreasing. And I suspect that India has already entered a negetive growth phrase as I explain in my OP.

 

[Skull and Bones]

Best thing to happen. our resources are already overstretched. There is no necessity in producing more and more offspring if you cannot provide them education, nutrition and healthcare security.

 

[definitelynotIndian]

2.3 fertility rate means nothing for India right now. Population will still keep on increasing till the year 2050 and population will cross 1.6 billion. Growth acceleration might have decreased but our base population is so huge it doesn't even matter.

 

[Prometheus]

educated class or working class of Indian society is getting married late ........like here in Punjab , People get married after they finish their college ......thats comes to rough age of around 24 for girls and 27 for boys ...............and they are having an average of two kids per couple.

But problem comes from other classes of Indian society ................they get married as soon as girls turn 18 and boys starts earning anything................and as they still indulge themselves in labour jobs .....their average child rate is 4- 5 in Punjab .

I have even seen a rickshaw puller who has 9 kids...............

how is someone expect a rickshaw puller to give college education to his kids if they are nine in number???? and the cycle keeps on growing and growing .

ALthough many have adopted to have less kids but still problem is wide spread

 

[East or West India Best]

The latest information about fertility rate of India from 2013 shows that India has a fertility rate of 2.3. That means a couple on average has 2.3 children.

India’s birth rate shrinks: study - Livemint

Now, in a developed country a fertily of 2.1 is required for a population to have no growth or no shrinkage, that is called replacement level fertility. But in developing countries a fertility of 2.5 to sometimes 3.3 is required to keep the population stable. This is because of lack of healthcare. More deaths of children occur due to disease or accidents. Thus a higher fertility rate is required to keep the population stable, and to stop growth or shrinkage of the population.
India has 2.3. And 2.33 is the world average for replacement level fertility. India's 2.3 rate was for 2013 and the rate is decreasing every year. In my humble opinion I think we have entered the negetive population growth phase, that means our population is decreasing.

Total fertility rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (read about replacement level fertility)

Even if we reach negative growth their is a delay by 1 generation (25 years) as the old die off. Until then, the population is still increasing.

educated class or working class of Indian society is getting married late ........like here in Punjab , People get married after they finish their college ......thats comes to rough age of around 24 for girls and 27 for boys ...............and they are having an average of two kids per couple.

But problem comes from other classes of Indian society ................they get married as soon as girls turn 18 and boys starts earning anything................and as they still indulge themselves in labour jobs .....their average child rate is 4- 5 in Punjab .

I have even seen a rickshaw puller who has 9 kids...............

how is someone expect a rickshaw puller to give college education to his kids if they are nine in number???? and the cycle keeps on growing and growing .

ALthough many have adopted to have less kids but still problem is wide spread

Punjab has the second lowest TFR at 1.7. Assuming the bhaiyya in Punjab are having children like bhaiyya do (3 TFR), then real Punjabis have a TFR of 1.2-1.5

Gonna go extinct soon.




Indian states ranking by fertility rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaIndian states ranking by fertility rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[indo]

We are on the right track. People interested in population and statistic watch this ted talk by Swedish academic Hans Rosling.
Hans Rosling: The best stats you've ever seen | Talk Video | TED.com

 

[asif1986]

China,s fertility rate has been under 2.1 since the beginning of 1990s and still its population is increasing,and will do so for another 2 decades.

 

[nik141991]

Even if we reach negative growth their is a delay by 1 generation (25 years) as the old die off. Until then, the population is still increasing.



Punjab has the second lowest TFR at 1.7. Assuming the bhaiyya in Punjab are having children like bhaiyya do (3 TFR), then real Punjabis have a TFR of 1.2-1.5

Gonna go extinct soon.




Indian states ranking by fertility rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaIndian states ranking by fertility rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

So my state is at 2nd good

 

[unbiasedopinion]

Good. Bring the population down to more or less 60% of its current size and one wouldn't feel like an ant in an ant-heap when walking in the cities

Maintaining the demography including the ratio of culture/religion of the region.

 

[kadamba-warrior]

Maintaining the demography including the ratio of culture/religion of the region.

I bet that ratio is not being maintained - unfortunately!