Why America will not leave Afghanistan for many decades or ever!

[takeitwithyou]

{UPDATED} 1 more point.
I wanted to start a topic based on a post I made in another thread that may help to understand America's goal in Afghanistan and the long game there. I'd imagine many here have wondered what was America's long game in Afghanistan. I have tried to keep my thoughts limited to an earnest strategic view of what I imagine the motivations to be.

I believe the game is to keep ourselves there in some form for decades. Any Superpower or Hyperpower as in our case would do the same. Follow me on this for a moment.

1. We can keep security relatively acceptable in Afganistan and yet benefit from the intelligence we gather to keep the homeland secure. Afterall there is a treasure trove of who's who in the terror world residing in the Afghan-Pak region

2. We are in China's backyard and surrounding them. China is the sole long-term threat we have identified, and their hegemony in S China sea is an economic and military concern for us. Keeping tabs, especially having close access to the restive parts of China, I'd say is of military value. We have drone bases in Afghanistan- imagine how deep we see and listen into China from deep within the Afghan airspace.

3. Afghans saw what happened when Iraq insisted we move out and they will never in the foreseeable future ask us to leave entirely.

4. We get access to central Asia in ways we have not previously. Frankly, we've not cultivated good links to them in the past. This a great opportunity.

5. We are also in Russia's backyard- it has its own set of strategic value to it.

6. Iran- This is an important one too, proximity allows us to peer into Iran and gather intelligence

Now I understand this reasoning may get the some of the characters here heated up and fully expect abusive comments to fly in, but I hope the rest would give it a serious thought and understand America's motivation. @Jlaw @beijingwalker - Your thoughts? @gambit you concur?

 

[Path-Finder]

America will leave Afghanistan because none of the neighbouring states wants them there BUT it is better they stay as long as possible, So we can see Russia coming into play in Afghanistan. There are many people who only remember the humiliation of Afghanistan too well in the Kremlin.

That time is fast approaching for the Bear return to its former self with the Dragon hovering above at the same time.

Plus not forgetting Iran!

 

[Chhatrapati]

Dragon hovering above at the same time.

The thing about the Chinese is, they will never get involved in others conflicts. That ended with Vietnam and Korean wars.

Now they are just mute spectator with good appetite for $$....

America will leave Afghanistan

Probably will leave. Only when Taliban become extinct and there is a legitimate government over Afghanistan. Until then, there will always be US soldiers and their bases.

 

[Path-Finder]

The thing about the Chinese is, they will never get involved in others conflicts. That ended with Vietnam and Korean wars.

Now they are just mute spectator with good appetite for $$....


Probably will leave. Only when Taliban become extinct and there is a legitimate government over Afghanistan. Until then, there will always be US soldiers and their bases.

you dont get it do you! Taliban are not going anywhere nor are they going to be extinct. Since the last twattery committed by the Yanks of dropping offensive leaflets which took away another ally they had the the Tajik followers of Ahmed Shah Masood have now started to join the Taliban or have turned against their occupiers.

Taliban movement is the biggest in its history with ANA soldiers running away to join them to Uzbek, Tajik and Hazara among their rank. It is no longer a Pashtun only movement.

Unless your allies want to commit war crimes like Auschwitz to annihilate and ethnically cleanse a people they are not going to win.

"This is what winning looks like"

As for Chinese they will employ other tactics you must understand, you and your ally have no option but to sprint but everyone else can walk at a pace that suits them! Sprinting is more tiresome.

 

[takeitwithyou]

you dont get it do you! Taliban are not going anywhere nor are they going to be extinct. Since the last twattery committed by the Yanks of dropping offensive leaflets which took away another ally they had the the Tajik followers of Ahmed Shah Masood have now started to join the Taliban or have turned against their occupiers.

Taliban movement is the biggest in its history with ANA soldiers running away to join them to Uzbek, Tajik and Hazara among their rank. It is no longer a Pashtun only movement.

Unless your allies want to commit war crimes like Auschwitz to annihilate and ethnically cleanse a people they are not going to win.

"This is what winning looks like"

As for Chinese they will employ other tactics you must understand, you and your ally have no option but to sprint but everyone else can walk at a pace that suits them! Sprinting is more tiresome.

Did you read my thread?
We can live in a space with the Taliban still in the outer areas. Read what I have posted and think strategically from an American point of view and it may make sense then.

 

[Taimoor Khan]

Question is, would America survive as a viable power in geopolitics? These Afghan ambitions are all secondary and dependent on its preservation of the status it enjoyed in post soviet era.

 

[Path-Finder]

Did you read my thread?
We can live in a space with the Taliban still in the outer areas. Read what I have posted and think strategically from an American point of view and it may make sense then.

I read it and gave my opinion. Ahh ist that what's happening now! There are fortified bases with yanks living in it with no man's land outside those bases. ANA running away and joining Taliban is happening as well.

ISIS is surviving with a helping hand. To work successfully you need all parts of the country under your control. Which is not the case! The Iraq like situation will work not. There is a difference between the two nation's.

As for you gaining Intel well other nations will be keeping an eye on you as well. Nothing goes unnoticed in this day and age.

Have you considered Taliban have visited Moscow Beijing and Tehran? The Taliban have tentacles everywhere. Despite being illiterate peasants they have eyes and ears too.

 

[litman]

Question is, would America survive as a viable power in geopolitics? These Afghan ambitions are all secondary and dependent on its preservation of the status it enjoyed in post soviet era.



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if the era of pax americana is about to end then what will be its replace ? pax judaica? then the world would be even worse place to live in. pax britannica ended after two world wars. so the end of pax americana will also require big war?? it seems shiekh imran is right about the subject.
on topic. US does have strategic benefits by staying in afghanistan. they also have an eye on afghanistan's minerals https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...anistans-elusive-mineral-riches-idUSKCN1B102L. so cat is coming out of the bag. the term "war on terror" should be replaced with "war for resources".

 

[Chhatrapati]

you dont get it do you! Taliban are not going anywhere nor are they going to be extinct. Since the last twattery committed by the Yanks of dropping offensive leaflets which took away another ally they had the the Tajik followers of Ahmed Shah Masood have now started to join the Taliban or have turned against their occupiers.

Taliban movement is the biggest in its history with ANA soldiers running away to join them to Uzbek, Tajik and Hazara among their rank. It is no longer a Pashtun only movement.

Unless your allies want to commit war crimes like Auschwitz to annihilate and ethnically cleanse a people they are not going to win.

"This is what winning looks like"

As for Chinese they will employ other tactics you must understand, you and your ally have no option but to sprint but everyone else can walk at a pace that suits them! Sprinting is more tiresome.

You don't get it do you. Taliban is the main reason why US is going to stay in Afghanistan.

And what is the largest source of income for Taliban? In a way, it's Pakistan. By selling poppy.

Just choking the Taliban off from funds and income will do. But that's not in the interest of some.

We are not allied to any nation. We are our own, we only have our national interest when dealing with any countries. That's why we don't fight, somebody else's war.

 

[Taimoor Khan]

if the era of pax americana is about to end then what will be its replace ? pax judaica? then the world would be even worse place to live in. pax britannica ended after two world wars. so the end of pax americana will also require big war?? it seems shiekh imran is right about the subject.
on topic. US does have strategic benefits by staying in afghanistan. they also have an eye on afghanistan's minerals https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...anistans-elusive-mineral-riches-idUSKCN1B102L. so cat is coming out of the bag. the term "war on terror" should be replaced with "war for resources".

Pax Judiacia is very much alive if you look who control America from shadows. But Chinese will have a thing or two to say about it.

We have been in a war since 9/11. Many Muslims nations were destroyed and trampled. Look at ME. And this 4th and 5th generation war started by America has lead to its present state.

 

[Path-Finder]

You don't get it do you. Taliban is the main reason why US is going to stay in Afghanistan.

And what is the largest source of income for Taliban? In a way, it's Pakistan. By selling poppy.

Just choking the Taliban off from funds and income will do. But that's not in the interest of some.

We are not allied to any nation. We are our own, we only have our national interest when dealing with any countries. That's why we don't fight, somebody else's war.

You don't get it do you, Taliban is not diminishing and growing in strength. Taliban is not the sole reason to stay in fact they want to negotiate with them under the guise of getting tough.

Please choke the funding of the Taliban I mean they succeeded in 16 years but I want to see them choke it now!

Yea Pakistan is the biggest user or Heroin in the world. Oh No Its replacing cocaine in the states. No one is stopping their production in afghanistan who is occupying afghanistan?

Oh come on. your country men are here telling us that they are BFF's with the US and they are their best ally ever!

 

[Chhatrapati]

Oh come on. your country men are here telling us that they are BFF's with the US and they are their best ally ever!

My country men? You mean PDF members.

Yea Pakistan is the biggest user or Heroin in the world. Oh No Its replacing cocaine in the states. No one is stopping their production in afghanistan who is occupying afghanistan?

Congratulations.

Taliban is not diminishing and growing in strength. Taliban is not the sole reason to stay in fact they want to negotiate with them under the guise of getting tough.

The same Taliban used to run Afghanistan. What happened? There are times it will grow and it will die, finally like any other terror organization it will die.

 

[Path-Finder]

My country men? You mean PDF members.

Congratulations.

The same Taliban used to run Afghanistan. What happened? There are times it will grow and it will die, finally like any other terror organization it will die.

if wishes were horses, wake me up when Taliban don't exist! it always good to keep positive despite things going to tatters .

 

[Chhatrapati]

if wishes were horses, wake me up when Taliban don't exist! it always good to keep positive despite things going to tatters .

It's cute when you think the world lets Taliban take over Afghan again.

 

[Path-Finder]

It's cute when you think the world lets Taliban take over Afghan again.

My thinking aside they have 40% of afghanistan right now. That from 0 to 40 after your buddies took over the country! Their territory is increasing. First stop that!