When can we expect China to regain Taiwan?

[MH.Yang]

Exactly ... this is the date we all need to look for unless one of tow options occur:

a) Taiwan declares independence
b) a re-union happens earlier due to a more subtle way.

Yes.
PRC was founded in 1949, and 2049 is the 100th year since the founding of the PRC.
Chinese people usually think that China has a century old shame, and CCP's goal is a century rejuvenation.
We also can find from the name "Fujian" of aircraft carrier 003 that CCP regards 2049 as an important time node.
The aircraft carrier 001 is called "Liaoning", the aircraft carrier 002 is called "Shandong", and the aircraft carrier 003 is called "Fujian".
Then we can infer that the 004 aircraft carrier will be called "Taiwan",
the 005 aircraft carrier will be called "Xinjiang",
the 006 aircraft carrier will be called "Heilongjiang",
the 007 aircraft carrier will be called "Guangdong",
and the 008 aircraft carrier will be called "Jiangsu".

"Liaoning" commemorates the Japanese invasion of Shenyang, Liaoning Province on September 18th, 1931, when the Second Sino-Japanese War broke out.
"Shandong" commemorates the 1895 First Sino-Japanese War, when Japan invaded Weihai, Shandong Province.
"Fujian" commemorates the French invasion of Mawei Port in Fujian in 1884.
Then the "Taiwan" should commemorate the Japanese invasion of Taiwan in 1874.
"Xinjiang" commemorates the Russian invasion of Xinjiang in 1860,
"Heilongjiang" commemorates the Russian invasion of Heilongjiang in 1858,
"Guangdong" commemorates the second Opium War in 1856,
"Jiangsu" commemorates the first Opium War in 1840, the beginning of China's century old humiliation.

Nanjing, Jiangsu Province in 1840 was the beginning of our century of humiliation. According to the current warship manufacturing speed, our eighth aircraft carrier will be launched around 2049. The year 2049 marks the centenary of the founding of PRC. CCP is telling us in this way that they have never forgotten our century old humiliation, and they have never forgotten the mission of rejuvenating China.

1840 to 1940, a China century of humiliation.
1949 to 2049, a China century of revival.

Therefore, we can boldly infer that 2049 is the time bottom line that CCP can tolerate.

 

[Chat SAMOSA]

As soon as US achieves local mass production in its chip foundries China may attempt a take over. Taiwan will not fight back militarily. Until that happens China doesn't dare make any serious moves that will disrupt chip supply to the US.

 

[Brainsucker]

What is the opinion of Chinese thinkers and military experts in regards to this key topic for China?

Is it realistic for Taiwan to voluntarily become a part of China or is a armed conflict inevitable with likely US involvement?

This prediction and analysis is 3.5 years old but nevertheless interesting.

Obviously there are many of such analysis with various outcomes.

There is one obvious answer for this. When the right time is coming. I'm sure that I remember one part of Sun Tzu Art of War regarding this time of opportunity; and some ancient China history that used as the example for this incoming opportunity.

 

[applesauce]

As soon as US achieves local mass production in its chip foundries China may attempt a take over. Taiwan will not fight back militarily. Until that happens China doesn't dare make any serious moves that will disrupt chip supply to the US.

whether or not the us has chips is nearly last on the list of reasons why china might or might not retake taiwan.

 

[Yaoudelizard]

As soon as US achieves local mass production in its chip foundries China may attempt a take over. Taiwan will not fight back militarily. Until that happens China doesn't dare make any serious moves that will disrupt chip supply to the US.

You have no idea what you’re talking about, the issue with being in an echo chamber.

 

[Chat SAMOSA]

whether or not the us has chips is nearly last on the list of reasons why china might or might not retake taiwan.

IMO that is the ONLY reason Taiwan is still distinct from China.

You have no idea what you’re talking about, the issue with being in an echo chamber.

Try this then:
Some dragons breathe fire while most others are just big lizards looking for a fly......Sun Tsu after a class on Confucious in the time warp.

 

[vi-va]

Exactly ... this is the date we all need to look for unless one of tow options occur:

a) Taiwan declares independence
b) a re-union happens earlier due to a more subtle way.

I think 2049 is unlikely. China won't wait that long.

 

[beijingwalker]

Taiwan issue is the corner stone of China's foreign polices from day one, so we have been asserting this claim for 70 years, but personally I believe even for the Chinese mainland, we are not politically and economically ready to take over Taiwan along with all their anarchic social problems, a forced takeover will end up hurting both sides, it's better for us to wait.

 

[vi-va]

Taiwan issue is the corner stone of China's foreign polices from day one, so we have been asserting this claim for 70 years, but personally I believe even for the Chinese mainland, we are not politically and economically ready to take over Taiwan along with all their anarchic social problems, a forced takeover will end up hurting both sides, it's better for us to wait.

I don't think so. Bit€hes love to be pushed down.
The issue left, is PLA ready for this? We don't want things like Ukraine War happened in Taiwan. That will be unfortunate for both sides.
We need enough deterrence to stop U.S. aiding Taiwan. Taiwan will have to negotiate with us, by our terms.

 

[WotTen]

China has been catching up fast in science and technology but it remains an awkward toddler when it comes to democratic manipulations. When China learns to master the delicate art of manipulating democracies, it can take Taiwan in one year without firing a single bullet.

 

[MH.Yang]

I think 2049 is unlikely. China won't wait that long.

Li Guangdi(李光地), a minister of the Qing Dynasty, once told Emperor Kangxi that if we are unable to govern Taiwan well, we might as well not take back Taiwan for the time being.
The people of the Qing Dynasty have had such insight, and of course we have.
If we are unable to completely quell the resistance of Taiwan separatists, we might as well wait until 2049.
A place full of resistance and guerrillas will consume too many resources.