What’s the India, China Doklam standoff about?

[Banglar Bir]

Doklam standoff: Chinese Navy eyes Indian Ocean to extend reach
SAM Report, August 13, 2017

Doklam Standoff: Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley today said the Indian armed forces are quite capable to meet any eventuality amid the Doklam standoff in Sikkim sector. (File)
Amid the standoff between Indian and Chinese troops in Doklam area in Sikkim sector, Union Defence Minister Arun Jaitley on Friday assured the Lok Sabha that Indian armed forces are prepared to face any eventuality. His response came against a question on reports of troop movements in Tibet by China amid the Doklam standoff. When Jaitley was asked to explain reasons behind the Indian armed forces not having adequate defence equipment to tackle an exigency, Jaitley said: “Our defence forces are ready to take on any eventuality,” he said without making any specific reference to Doklam.

There was another question that was asked about a Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) report which stated that the defence forces have ammunition that can last for 22 days in an event of a war, instead of the mandatory 40 days. To this, the Defence Minister replied that significant progress has been made on this front thereafter, but did not elaborate. “Nobody should have a doubt on that,” Jaitley asserted.

Chinese Navy eyes Indian Ocean as part of PLA’s plan to extend its reach amid Doklam standoff

In the backdrop of the Doklam standoff, Chinese Navy has reached out to India to maintain security China in Indian Ocean amid increasing concerns in New Delhi over the growing presence of the PLA fleet in India’s backyard. In a first, People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) threw open its strategic South Sea Fleet (SSF) base in the coastal city of Zhanjiang to a group of Indian journalists. “It is my opinion China and India can make joint contributions to the safety and security of the Indian Ocean,” Capt Liang Tianjun, Deputy Chief of General Office of China’s SSF said. His remarks came as China’s Navy embarked on a massive expansion to extend its global reach.

US favours dialogue between India and China on Doklam

Meanwhile, the US said it wants China and India to engage in a dialogue over the Doklam standoff. In a statement to news agency PTI, State Department Spokesperson Heather Nauert said: “It’s a situation that we have certainly followed closely.” “As you know, we have relationships with both governments. We continue to encourage both parties to sit down and have conversations about that. And I’ll just leave it at that,” Nauert added

Indian and Chinese troops have been engaged in a stand-off in the Doklam area of the Sikkim sector for seven weeks now after Indian troops stopped the Chinese army from building a road in the disputed area. China claimed that they were constructing the road within their territory and has been demanding immediate pull-out of the Indian troops from the disputed Doklam plateau. New Delhi has expressed concern over the road building, apprehending that it may allow Chinese troops to cut India’s access to its North Eastern States.

India has conveyed to the Chinese government that the road construction would represent a significant change of status quo with serious security implications for it. Doka La is the Indian name for the region which Bhutan recognises as Doklam, while China claims it as part of its Donglang region.

Of the 3,488-km-long India-China border from Jammu and Kashmir to Arunachal Pradesh, a 220-km section falls in Sikkim. China also claims that Thimphu has no dispute with Beijing over Doklam.

With PTI inputs
http://southasianmonitor.com/2017/08/13/doklam-standoff-chinese-navy-eyes-indian-ocean-extend-reach/

 

[bluesky]

No impact of India-China border tension on Bangladesh: Diplomat
Nurul Islam Hasib, Senior Correspondent, bdnews24.com
Published: 2017-08-13 23:11:56.0 BdST Updated: 2017-08-14 00:17:17.0 BdST

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  Reuters File Photo shows Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina (3rd from right on back row), Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (middle on front row), and Chinese President Xi Jinping (2nd from right on front row) posing for a group picture with other leaders during BRICS and BIMSTEC summits in Cavelossim, in the western state of Goa, India, October 16, 2016.
  

An Indian diplomat in Dhaka believes that Bangladesh will have little impact from ongoing border tension between India and China.

“At this point, there is no question of having impacts,” said the diplomat who spoke to bdnews24.com on Sunday on India- Bangladesh relations.

“China is also a significant partner for India. Our trade with China is over $70 billion and its growing. There are cultural and people-to-people relations," the diplomat who cannot be named said, adding "There is no issue in this tension that can impact Bangladesh.”

Media reports suggest that India's military has increased 'operational readiness' along the eastern Indian border with China recently following a tension in a remote Himalayan region near their disputed frontier.

The crisis began in June when a Chinese construction crew was found to be trying to extend a road in the Doklam region that both China and the mountainous nation of Bhutan claim as theirs.

India, which has special ties with Bhutan, sent its troops to stop the construction, igniting anger in Beijing which said New Delhi had no business to intervene, and demanded a unilateral troop withdrawal.

The Indian diplomat who talked with bdnews24.com said that there is “no friction” at the border at this moment.

“Both sides are maintaining protocols. There is no friction between the forces,” the diplomat said, alleging that media was showing old footages of 1980s scuffle in the border.

Bangladesh’s relation with India is regarded at its best now.

Bangladesh also joined the Chinese initiative ‘one-belt, one-road’ last year when President Xi Jinping visited Dhaka, elevating the relations to the strategic level.

Prime Minister’s International Affairs Advisor Gowher Rizvi recently at a seminar said the relation is win-win, not a “zero-sum” game.

But after buying Chinese submarines, there is a perception that 'India is not happy with Bangladesh'. The diplomat, however, ruled out such perception.

“You have taken the decision as a country, as a government and as a navy. So we have nothing to say about that,” the diplomat said.

“Bangladesh was always dependent on China’s military supply. Of course, this submarines brings a new element”.

He said India’s external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj wants to come to Bangladesh 'as early as possible' as she recovered from her kidney failure.

“We have not fixed the date,” he said, as the minister would come for the joint commission meeting along with her Bangladesh counterpart AH Mahmood Ali.

The meeting would take stock of the progress of ongoing cooperation between the countries and give future directions.

 

[Banglar Bir]

India must find a face-saving pretext and withdraw from Doklam

Wangcha Sangey says Delhi’s interference in the border talks between Bhutan and China was intended to assert control over Bhutan. Having failed, it must pull back its troops, and leave the other two to conclude their talk
PUBLISHED : Monday, 14 August, 2017, 4:24pm
India has to withdraw from Doklam. There is no alternative. War is neither a wise nor affordable choice.

The so-called “chicken neck” – the narrow valley that links India’s mainland with its northeast, and the apparent reason for its intervention in the Doklam row – was not and is not in any security danger.

The two countries that have claims over the disputed border in Doklam are Bhutan and China. Bhutan never wanted India to interfere with the Sino-Bhutan border talks. Indeed, Bhutan has never considered itself a “protectorate state”, neither of British Raj India nor the Republic of India.

India must stop trampling on Bhutan’s sovereignty
The 1949 treaty between Bhutan and India was simply a copy of the 1865 Sinchula treaty, imposed on Bhutan by a better-armed British India. At that time, Bhutan was following an isolationist policy and external affairs were irrelevant. Under the Sinchula treaty, British India took away some territories of Bhutan, including the “chicken neck”, in exchange for an annual cash payment to Bhutan to compensate for its lost revenue in taxes. Bhutan had to be content with that.

Over the years, however, Bhutan has become more open to the world.

In 1971, Bhutan became a member of the United Nations of its own free will – not under any advice from India. Before that, in 1962, Bhutan had joined the Colombo Plan – again with no advice from India. That year, Bhutan was invited to attend the committee meeting in Melbourne, Australia, as an observer. But the head of Bhutan’s delegation to the meeting, Ashi Tashi Dorji, the sister of then prime minister Jigme Palden Dorji, represented Bhutanese interests so well that Bhutan was invited to become a full member there and then.

In line with these developments, in 2007, Bhutan and India revised their 1949 treaty and removed two clauses: one, that Bhutan foreign affairs would no longer be guided by India, and two, that India no longer has to make an annual payment to Bhutan. Thus, India agreed to refrain from interfering in Bhutan’s foreign affairs, and Bhutan absolved India from the annuity payment.

India acted rashly at Doklam and is now keen to withdraw. I believe its objective was to assert control over Bhutan, and did not intend it as an act of military defiance against China. For its part, Beijing wants Bhutan to remain as a sovereign buffer between China and India, and not as an Indian-controlled buffer.

Having failed in its initial objective, India does not wish to aggravate the crisis with China. But how can the Indian government stand down without being attacked by the opposition parties in Parliament? The ideal solution is for India to withdraw and claim that Bhutanese troops are replacing Indian forces at the disputed site. If India made such a claim, Bhutan would neither deny nor confirm it, even though on the ground it is not possible for Bhutan to replace Indian troops at the Chinese-controlled territory in Doklam.

Perhaps to ease India’s embarrassment, Bhutan could double its deployment at the Zom Pelri outpost, from around 10 soldiers now to 20 soldiers. This arrangement could last through the winter, with numbers dropping back to normal next spring. Bhutan cannot waste its army resources on an unimportant task.

This is something India has to do for itself. Bhutan cannot be the one saying its troops would replace Indian soldiers in Doklam, as such a statement would be tantamount to confirming Bhutan is a protectorate state of India, which it is not.

Bhutan is not anti-India; it simply wants to close the border deal with China and have a proper relationship with Beijing, in line with its own national interests. Both neighbours are important to Bhutan, but neither is an overlord of Bhutan.
Wangcha Sangey is a well-known blogger in Bhutan

 

[Banglar Bir]

Chinese Ministry dismisses media report on Donglang
SAM Staff, August 16, 2017

The Foreign Ministry has dismissed a media report that China offered to reposition its troops to resolve the tension with India in the Donglang (Doklam) area.

Reuters reported on Tuesday that after India demanded Chinese troops pull back 250 meters, China counter offered to move its troops back 100 meters.

The Spokesperson’s Office said on Thursday that the report is not true. “China will not trade its territorial sovereignty under any circumstances,” it said.

“China’s position on solving this incident is clear and firm. India must immediately and unconditionally withdraw all its trespassing troops and equipment back to the Indian side of the border,” the office said in a statement.

Sun Hongnian, a borderland expert of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, called the Reuters report “fake news” coming possibly from India, which “intends to turn Donglang into a disputed area”.

Zhao Xiaozhuo, a researcher at the PLA Academy of Military Science, said China could never accept India’s “totally unreasonable” demand.

India aims to nullify the Convention Between Great Britain and China Relating to Sikkim and Tibet so it can change the only defined sector on the China-India boundary into an “undefined” one, Zhao said.

The Sikkim sector of the China-India boundary was defined in the convention signed in 1890 with Donglang being Chinese territory on the Chinese side of the border.

India had honored the convention until Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration refused, Zhao said.

Indian troops crossed into Donglang in mid-June to block Chinese road construction. It has tried to justify the incursion as being in a “tri-junction” between China, India and Bhutan.

“India’s intrusion … has not only violated China’s territorial sovereignty but also challenged Bhutan’s sovereignty and independence,” the Foreign Ministry said earlier this month.

On Thursday, several Indian media cited anonymous sources as claiming that India’s military had ordered immediate evacuation of an Indian village 35 kilometers from Donglang.

SOURCE CHINA DAILY
http://southasianmonitor.com/2017/08/16/chinese-ministry-dismisses-media-report-donglang/

India, China soldiers involved in border altercation: Indian sources
Sanjeev Miglani and Fayaz Bukhari

NEW DELHI/SRINAGAR, India (Reuters) - Indian and Chinese soldiers were involved in an altercation in the western Himalayas on Tuesday, Indian sources said, further raising tensions between the two countries which are already locked in a two-month standoff in another part of the disputed border.

A source in New Delhi, who had been briefed on the military situation on the border, said soldiers foiled a bid by a group of Chinese troops to enter Indian territory in Ladakh, near the Pangong lake.

Some of the Chinese soldiers carried iron rods and stones, and in the melee there were minor injuries on both sides, the source said.

China's defense and foreign ministries did not immediately respond to request for comment.

The two sides have frequently accused each other of intrusions into each other's territories, but clashes are rare.

The Indian military declined to comment on the incident.

"There was an altercation near the Pangong lake," said a police officer in Srinagar, the capital of India's Jammu and Kashmir state, under which the area falls. An army source in Srinagar also spoke of an altercation following what he called a Chinese army "incursion in Pangong lake area".

The two armies are already engaged in a standoff in the Doklam plateau further east, in another part of their 3,500 km (2,175 mile) unmarked mountain border.

China has repeatedly asked India to unilaterally withdraw from the Doklam area, or else face the prospect of an escalation. Chinese state media have warned India of a fate worse than its crushing defeat in a brief border war in 1962.

The trouble started in June when India sent troops to stop China building a road in the Doklam area, which is remote, uninhabited territory claimed by both China and India's ally Bhutan.

New Delhi said it sent its troops because Chinese military activity in Doklam, near the trijunction of the borders of India, China and Bhutan, was a threat to the security of its own northeast region.

But Beijing has said India had no role to play in the area and diplomatic efforts to defuse the crisis have not made much headway.

An Indian government minister said efforts were continuing to find a way to end the standoff.

The minister, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government had no choice but to act to stop the Chinese road activity in the region because it had come too close for comfort.

Additional reporting by Ben Blanchard in BEIJING; Editing by Mark Trevelyan
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-china-idUSKCN1AV29F

 

[Banglar Bir]

China urges India to abide by border agreements amid border guard skirmish
SAM Staff, August 17, 2017

China has called on India to abide by bilateral agreements on border issues after media reports emerged about another skirmish between Chinese and Indian border guard officers on the Line of Actual Control (LAC), Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said Wednesday.

On Tuesday, the Times of India newspaper reported that soldiers of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army attempted to cross the border into India through Ladakh, located along the LAC. The crossing reportedly resulted in a scuffle involving rock throwing between border guard officers.

Commenting on the incident, Hua Chunying said that Beijing doesn’t have all the details about the incident. She added that Chinese border guard officers have been protecting peace and stability in the border area between China and India by all means.

“China urges India to respect the relevant agreements between the two countries and to fully implement the 1959 agreement on the line of actual control in order to ensure peace and stability in the border area between the two countries,” Hua said at a news conference.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman added that the withdrawal of Indian troops and military equipment that illegally crossed the border was a prerequisite for the border conflict resolution between the two states.

India and China have been locked in a border standoff since mid-June. The confrontation started after Indian troops blocked road construction being carried out by China in the disputed area of Doklam (Donglang).

India and China have a border dispute over two major and several small regions, which resulted in the 1962 Sino-Indian War. Border standoffs between Indian and Chinese troops occur on an almost daily basis at different parts along the 4,057-kilometer (about 2,521 miles) LAC between the two nations, an informal cease-fire line between India and China after the 1962 conflict.

SOURCE SPUTNIK
http://southasianmonitor.com/2017/0...border-agreements-amid-border-guard-skirmish/

 

[Banglar Bir]

Standoff with China prompts revamp of India’s regional policies
M.K. Bhadrakumar, August 18, 2017
The denouement of the dangerous India-China military standoff in Doklam near the Sikkim border is hard to predict. But on the diplomatic and geopolitical plane, one definite outcome of the standoff is going to be that the South Asian and Indian Ocean region will witness big-power rivalry in a way that eluded it even in the high noon of the Cold War era.

Beijing’s South Asia diplomacy has hitherto focused on creating underpinnings for its expanding economic interests in trade, investment and connectivity. Even its Pakistan policies, which were traditionally India-centric, had distinctly begun to transform as a template of the Chinese global strategy devolving upon the Belt and Road Initiative. But this may be about to change. China’s South Asian policies may now come to acquire for the first time a pronounced anti-India thrust on a regional scale.

Arguably, such a shift could have been expected ever since India began wading into the South China Sea disputes with gusto over the past few years. The Doklam standoff has become a defining moment. An editorial in the Global Times newspaper on Friday gave notice that since India had been harming China’s interests, Beijing was now left with no option but to retaliate. The editorial blasted India’s neighborhood policies in South Asia:

India’s overall strength is far from that of a major power, but its hegemonic ambitions are world-class. It forcefully annexed Sikkim in the past and continues to violate Bhutan’s sovereign rights and to interfere in Nepal’s foreign policies.

India’s regional hegemonism has expanded to harm China’s national interests, forcing Beijing to take action.… It’s necessary for China to spread this initiative to South Asia.… China is also capable of influencing how India is perceived by these countries. It’s time for India’s hegemony in South Asia to come to an end.… The Doklam standoff is just the start. The world needs to see what India has done in South Asia.

The Communist Party of China tabloid has thus declared open war with India in the diplomatic arena. The rhetoric harks back to the 1960s and ’70s. Perhaps what is galling for China is that on top of India’s assiduous courting of Vietnam and quasi-alliance with Japan to push back at China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea, India has raised the bar by challenging its “territorial sovereignty” over Doklam. It is a blunt message to New Delhi that any trespass into China’s core interests will come at a price.

The advent of a “great game” on the South Asian chessboard may provide India’s small neighbors with more space and wherewithal to negotiate much harder deals with New Delhi than they ever were capable of striking during the past seven decades. In strategic terms, China seems to think that South Asia’s Gulliver can be tied down by the region’s Lilliputians. The old hackneyed thesis of the “string of pearls” seems to be coming true.

A fundamental rethink in India’s neighborhood policies may be becoming necessary. Its past obsession with creating a sphere of influence in its neighborhood has become untenable. At any rate, the reported move by Kathmandu to demand the rollback of powers vested in the Indian Embassy to decide unilaterally on “small projects” in Nepal is yet another wake-up call that times have changed and there is high sensitivity about perceived Indian hegemony.

India’s best option will be to fall back on its soft power aimed at creating rings of constructive engagement that make the smaller neighbors stakeholders in friendship and cooperation with India. But that will require a change in the mindset and might only grudgingly yield results. And India will need quick results, too.

What a flawed policy judgment it was that India decided to boycott (and derail) the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation summit in Islamabad two years ago to spite Pakistan! New Delhi virtually mothballed the SAARC forum. Yet despite all of its inadequacies, SAARC did serve a useful purpose in facilitating seamless interactions. In today’s troubled times, the SAARC kinship would have worked to the advantage of Indian diplomacy.

Against the above backdrop, the visit by Sushma Swaraj, India’s external affairs minister, to Kathmandu last week may be seen as the incipient sign of a rethink taking place in the Indian policies. Course correction in policies takes place at glacial pace in the Delhi durbar. But Swaraj is also planning to travel to Dhaka next month, hinting at a heightened level of awareness about India’s South Asian neighbors.

Without doubt, Swaraj’s advice to Nepal’s Madhesi parties to return to mainstream politics and to participate in the upcoming local elections in that country presages a fantastic shift in the Indian policies. India has apparently decided to change course and encourage the Madhesi minority groups of Indian origin to look toward Kathmandu rather than Delhi to secure their regional interests through political empowerment within that country’s democratic framework. This signifies a radical departure from the past policy of the Indian establishment using the Madhesi ethnic problem as a trump card to pressure the leadership in Kathmandu to curb China’s growing presence in that country.

Significantly, Chinese Vice-Premier Wang Yang (who co-chairs the high-profile China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue and is a key figure in the Chinese leadership) is visiting Nepal this week on the second leg of a regional tour, which took him also to Pakistan. This will be Wang’s second interaction with the Nepalese leadership regarding the Belt and Road Initiative in the past three-month period. Wang met with Nepali Deputy Prime Minister Krishna Bahadur Mahara in Beijing in May.

Beijing may be firing the first salvo in its South Asian diplomacy to undercut India’s influence. All signs are that China could be preparing a Belt and Road package for Nepal that India cannot possibly match. It cannot be ruled out that President Xi Jinping could be scheduling his long-awaited visit to Nepal.

SOURCE ASIA TIMES
http://southasianmonitor.com/2017/08/18/standoff-china-prompts-revamp-indias-regional-policies/

Ladakh-like incidents not in interest of India or China: Indian MEA
SAM Staff, August 19, 2017

India said on Saturday it will continue to engage with China to find a mutually acceptable solution to the Dokalam standoff, but underlined that incidents like one in Ladakh three days ago were not in the “interest of either side”.

“Today, I can confirm that there was an incident at Pangong Tso on August 15. This was subsequently discussed by the local army commanders of the two sides. Such incidents are not in the interest of either side. We should maintain peace and tranquillity,” external affairs ministry spokesperson Raveesh Kumar said.

However, he did not confirm whether the incident involved stone pelting or use of rods and asserted that, “I just said there was an incident.” He also emphasised that the incident should not be linked with what was happening in any other sector.

Kumar also did not confirm whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to China next month to attend Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS) summit, saying he does not have any information about it.

Asked about the current status of the standoff, he said, “It is a sensitive issue… We will continue to engage with China to find mutually acceptable solution. Peace and tranquillity in border areas are important pre-requisites for smooth development of bilateral relations.”

However, he quipped, “I am not an astrologer, so cannot predict”, when asked by when the Dokalam standoff will be resolved.

In the context of the Ladakh incident, he said two border personnel meetings (BPMs) had taken place between Indian border guards and Chinese troops recently.

He said one BPM had taken place at Chushul on August 16 and another one at Nathu La a week before.

Asked if China has shared hydrological data with India in the backdrop of floods in Assam, Kumar said there is an existing expert-level mechanism, established in 2006, and there are two MoUs under which China is expected to share hydrological data on rivers Sutlej and Brahmaputra with India during the flood season of May 15 to June 15.

“For this year, we have not received hydrological data from the Chinese side,” the spokesperson said.

However, he added that it was “premature” to link it with the floods in Assam as there can be “technical reasons” behind China not sharing the data.

He also noted that in view of floods in Bihar, India was closely coordinating with Nepal, both at Centre and state- level.

Asked about the reported comments of the Japanese Ambassador on Dokalam face off and if India welcomes it, Kumar gave a very guarded reaction, saying the remarks speak for themselves.

The Japanese ambassador was quoted in media as saying that no country should use unilateral forces to alter the status of Dokalam.

“We recognise Dokalam is a disputed area between Bhutan and China and two countries are engaged in border talks… We also understand that the India has a treaty understanding with Bhutan that’s why Indian troops got involved in the area,” the ambassador had reportedly said.

Reacting to the Japanese ambassador’s comments, Chinese foreign ministry in Beijing said, “I want to remind him not to randomly make comments before clarifying relevant facts. In the Donglong (Dokalam) area, there is no territorial dispute.

The boundary has been delimited and recognised by the two sides.”

Kumar also refused to divulge details of communication by other countries to India on the Dokalam issue.

Asked about a video, posted by Chinese state-run media, which portrayed Indians in a very poor taste, he said he does not want to “dignify” it with a response.

SOURCE PTI
http://southasianmonitor.com/2017/08/19/ladakh-like-incidents-not-interest-india-china-indian-mea/

যুদ্ধের মুখোমুখি চীন-ভারত।উ:কোরিয়ায় সামরিক হামলার অনুমতি নিতে হবে সিউলের।সহযোগিতা বাড়াবে ইরান-তুরস্ক

Published on Aug 17, 2017
#‘হিমালয় অঞ্চলে বিপজ্জনকভাবে যু্দ্ধের মুখোমুখি চীন-ভারত’
চীন ও ভারত হিমালয় অঞ্চলে বিপজ্জনকভাবে যু্দ্ধের মুখোমুখি হয়েছে বলে আশংকা ব্যক্ত করেছে মার্কিন দৈনিক ওয়াশিংটন পোস্ট।
চীনের সড়ক নির্মাণকে কেন্দ্র করে গত দু’মাস ধরে হিমালয় অঞ্চলে মুখোমুখি অবস্থানে চলে গেছে পরমাণু শক্তিধর দেশদু’টি। চীন যে এলাকায় সড়ক নির্মাণের চেষ্টা করেছে সেটি ভারতের ঘনিষ্ঠ মিত্রদেশ ভুটানের বলে দাবি করা হচ্ছে।
অবশ্য ভারতের পররাষ্ট্রমন্ত্রী সংসদে দেয়া বিবৃতিতে এ বিবাদ আলোচনার মাধ্যমে নিরসনের কথা বলেছেন। কিন্তু দৃঢ়তার সঙ্গে চীন ডোকালামের ওই এলাকায় রাস্তা নির্মাণের অধিকারের কথা বলছে। ওই এলাকার ভূমি নিজের বলে দাবি করছে।
#'কোরিয় উপদ্বীপে সামরিক পদক্ষেপে সিউলের আগাম অনুমতি নিতে হবে'
উত্তর কোরিয়ার বিরুদ্ধে কোনো সামরিক পদক্ষেপ নিতে হলে সিউলের আগাম অনুমতি নিতে হবে বলে জানিয়েছেন দক্ষিণ কোরিয়ার প্রেসিডেন্ট মুন জেই-ইন। সেই সঙ্গে তিনি বলেন, কোরিয় উপদ্বীপে হামলা চালানোর আগে দক্ষিণ কোরিয়ার সাথে আলোচনার ব্যাপারে আমেরিকা সম্মতি দিয়েছে।

আজ (বৃহস্পতিবার) দক্ষিণ কোরিয়ার রাজধানী সিউলে মুন বলেন, আমি এটা অত্যন্ত দৃঢ়ভাবে বলতে চাই যে, কোরিয় উপদ্বীপে যেকোনো সামরিক পদক্ষেপ নেয়ার ক্ষেত্রে দক্ষিণ কোরিয়ার কাছ থেকে অনুমতি নিতে হবে। তবে কোরিয় উপদ্বীপের বাইরে হলে ভিন্ন কথা।
#"সামরিক ও প্রতিরক্ষা ক্ষেত্রে সহযোগিতা বাড়াতে ইরান ও তুরস্ক দৃঢ় প্রতিজ্ঞ"
ইরানের সেনাপ্রধান মেজর জেনারেল মোহাম্মাদ বাকেরির নেতৃত্বে একটি উচ্চ পদস্থ সামরিক প্রতিনিধি দল বর্তমানে তুরস্কে অবস্থান করছেন। সেনাপ্রধান মেজর জেনারেল মোহাম্মাদ বাকেরি সংবাদ সম্মেলনে বলেছেন, সব ক্ষেত্রে বিশেষ করে সামরিক ও প্রতিরক্ষা বিষয়ে সহযোগিতা বাড়ানোর বিষয়ে দু'দেশ দৃঢ় প্রতিজ্ঞ।
#‘মার্কিন ডলারের ওপর নির্ভরতা কমাতে শুরু করেছে রাশিয়া’
রাশিয়া মার্কিন ডলারের ওপর নির্ভরতা কমাতে শুরু করেছে এবং দেশের ভেতরে মার্কিন মুদ্রা বিনিময়ের পরিমাণ হ্রাস করছে। রুশ উন্নয়নমন্ত্রী ম্যাক্সিম ওরেশেখিন এ কথা জানিয়েছেন।
তিনি বলেন, রুশ অর্থনীতিতে মার্কিন ডলার ব্যবহার কমিয়ে আনার ব্যাপক তৎপরতা শুরু হয়েছে। ২০১৭-০৮-১৭

 

[Banglar Bir]

India will be in more danger in case of War: Anandabazar Newspaper(Indian)
যুদ্ধ হলে বিপদ কিন্তু ভারতেরই বেশি: আনন্দবাজার পত্রিকা

যুদ্ধ হলে বিপদ কিন্তু ভারতেরই বেশি: আনন্দবাজার পত্রিকা
ভারত-চিন যুদ্ধ শুরু হলে ভূ-কৌশলগত অবস্থানের কারণে দক্ষিণ এশিয়ার অনেক দেশের ওপর ভারত তার সামরিক অবস্থান জোরদার করবে।

এদের ওপর ভারত চাপ সৃষ্টি করবে, যাতে চিন তাদের কাছ থেকে কোনও সুবিধা না পায়। অন্যদিকে, বেইজিংও তৎপর হবে, প্রতিবেশী দেশগুলিও যেন কোনও ভাবেই ভারতের পক্ষ না হয়ে ওঠে।

কিন্তু সত্যি সত্যি দিল্লি যদি দক্ষিণ এশিয়ার দেশগুলিকে তার পক্ষ হতে বাধ্য করে, কিংবা সে সব দেশে দিল্লির সামরিক উপস্থিতি ঘটে, তবে এই দেশগুলিতে ভারতবিরোধী রাজনীতি আরও জোরদার হবার সম্ভাবনা রয়েছে। যার সুযোগ নেবে বেইজিং।

বাংলাদেশ, নেপাল, ভুটান বা শ্রীলঙ্কায় যতই ভারতের (সাউথ ব্লকের দাবি অনুযায়ী) ‘বন্ধু সরকার’-এর উপস্থিতি থাক, দেশের অভ্যন্তরীণ রাজনীতির এই চাপকে উপেক্ষা করা তাদের পক্ষে কঠিন হবেদিল্লির পক্ষে আর একটি উদ্বেগের কারণ হবে উত্তর-পূর্ব ভারতের বিচ্ছিন্নতাবাদী সংগঠনগুলি।

চিন-ভারত সংঘাতের সুযোগ তারা হাতছাড়া করতে চাইবে না। সেই সুযোগ নিয়ে তারা সেখানে অস্থিরতা সৃষ্টি করতে পারে বলে বিশেষজ্ঞরা মনে করছেন। ফলে শিলিগুড়ি করিডরকে সুরক্ষিত রাখতে এবং সামগ্রিক ভাবে দেশের উত্তর-পূর্বাঞ্চলে স্থিতিশীলতা বজায় রাখতে ভারতকে এখানে একসঙ্গে দুটি ফ্রন্টে লড়াই করতে হবে।

ইতিপূর্বে উত্তর-পূর্ব ভারতের বিচ্ছিন্নতাবাদী শক্তিগুলিকে দমন করতে দিল্লি ভুটান, মায়ানমার, নেপাল ও বাংলাদেশের সাহায্য পেয়েছিল।

যুদ্ধ শুরু হলে এই দেশগুলির উপর ভারত আবার চাপ সৃষ্টি করবে। কিন্তু যুদ্ধের সময় এটা যে চিন ভাল ভাবে নেবে না, সেটা তারা জানে। কেননা, তখন সেটা হয়ে যাবে ভারতের হয়ে চিনের বিরুদ্ধে অবস্থান। তাই দিল্লির চাপে তারা কতটা সাড়া দেবে, তা নিয়ে প্রশ্নের যথেষ্ট অবকাশ থেকে যাচ্ছে।ভারতের পক্ষে আর একটি দুঃসংবাদ হতে পারে দক্ষিণ চিন সাগর অবরোধ।

এই অঞ্চল ভারতের অন্যতম গুরুত্বপূর্ণ বাণিজ্য পথ। চিন স্বভাবতই ব্যবসাবাণিজ্যে বাধা সৃষ্টি করে দিল্লিকে বিপাকে ফেলতে চাইবে। ইদানীং এ-রকম একটি ধারণা তৈরি হয়েছে যে, বেইজিং রাজনীতির সঙ্গে অর্থনীতিকে কখনও মেশায় না। বাস্তবে কিন্তু এর উল্টোটাই বেশি দেখা গেছে। যেখানে চিনের স্বার্থ বিপন্ন হয়েছে, বেইজিং বাণিজ্যকে রাজনৈতিক অস্ত্র হিসাবে ব্যবহার করেছে।

সম্প্রতি দক্ষিণ কোরিয়া চিনের আপত্তি অগ্রাহ্য করে ‘থাড’ ক্ষেপণাস্ত্র মোতায়েন করে, তার প্রতিক্রিয়ায় বেইজিং দেশটির উপর ব্যাপক অর্থনেতিক অবরোধ আরোপ করে। একই ঘটনা মঙ্গোলিয়া, ফিলিপাইন বা জাপানের ক্ষেত্রেও ঘটেছে।

গত বছর দালাইলামা মঙ্গোলিয়া সফর করেছিলেন। বেইজিং এই ঘটনায় নিজের উষ্মা প্রকাশের জন্য মঙ্গোলিয়ার পণ্যের ওপর শাস্তিমূলক জরিমানা আরোপ করে।
আবার ২০১২ সালে জাপানের সঙ্গে সেনকাকু দ্বীপপুঞ্জ এবং ফিলিপাইনের সঙ্গে দক্ষিণ চিন সাগরে স্কারবরো বালুচর নিয়ে বিবাদের জেরে দেশ দুটির উপর বাণিজ্য-অস্ত্র প্রয়োগ করে চিন।
ফিলিপাইনের কলা আমদানি নিষিদ্ধ করার ফলে সে দেশের হাজার হাজার চাষি বিপন্ন হয়ে পড়েন।

এটা সত্যি, চিন এ পর্যন্ত মার্কিন যুক্তরাষ্ট্র ও দিল্লির বিরুদ্ধে এ রকম পদক্ষেপ করেনি। তার একটা কারণ হল, ভারতে চিনের রফতানি আমদানির তুলনায় পাঁচ গুণ। কিন্তু সে এই পথে কখনও হাঁটবে না, এমন ধারণা শিশুসুলভ হবে। চিন যদিও বা নিজে না করে, তার ঘনিষ্ঠদের চাপ দিয়ে এই পদক্ষেপে বাধ্য করতে পারে। মার্কিন যুক্তরাষ্ট্র ও জাপান তখন দিল্লির ডাকে কতটা সাড়া দেবে, তা নিয়েও সন্দেহ আছে। কেননা, উত্তর কোরিয়াকে সামলাতে ডোনাল্ড ট্রাম্পের এখন সবচেয়ে বেশি প্রয়োজন চিনকে।

অন্য দিকে রয়েছে পাকিস্তান। চিন তো নিজেই বলেছে, ভারত যদি তৃতীয় পক্ষ হয়ে ভুটানে সেনা মোতায়েন করতে পারে তবে সে পাকিস্তানের হয়ে কাশ্মীরে অবস্থান করবে। ভারত-চিন সংঘাতের সুযোগ নিতে পাকিস্তানও ছাড়বে না। কাশ্মীরে বিচ্ছিন্নতাবাদী আন্দোলন জোরদার হয়ে উঠবে। এই অঞ্চল এমনিতেই এখন অস্থির।

এ তো গেল যুদ্ধকালীন অবস্থা। সবচেয়ে শোচনীয় অবস্থা হবে যুদ্ধ-পরবর্তী সময়ে। দক্ষিণ এশিয়ার ভঙ্গুর অর্থনীতিতে বড়সড় ধাক্কা লাগার সম্ভাবনা তো রয়েছে।

সেই সঙ্গে, যুদ্ধে যদি ভারত সত্যই পরাজিত হয় (সেই সম্ভাবনাই বেশি), দক্ষিণ এশিয়ার ভূ-রাজনীতিতে চিনের আধিপত্য আরও জোরদার হবে। বিশেষ করে দক্ষিণ এশিয়ার রাজনীতির অভিমুখ চিনের দিকে ঘুরে যেতে পারে। এমনিতেই দক্ষিণ এশিয়ার রাজনীতিতে ভারত ক্রমশ নিঃসঙ্গ হয়ে পড়ছে।

এক কথায়, চিন-ভারত যুদ্ধের ফলে ভারতের দেহে ‘স্পেনীয় ক্যান্সার’-এর মতো গভীর ক্ষত তৈরির আশঙ্কা রয়েছে। এবং, স্পেনীয় ক্যান্সার নেপোলিয়নের পতনকে ত্বরান্বিত করেছিল, কিন্তু চিন-ভারত যুদ্ধ শুধু নরেন্দ্র মোদীর মর্যাদাহানিতেই সীমাবদ্ধ থাকবে না, গোটা দুনিয়ায় ভারতের মর্যাদা ভূ-লুণ্ঠিত হবে।http://monitorbd.news/2017/08/19/যুদ্ধ-হলে-বিপদ-কিন্তু-ভার/

 

[Banglar Bir]

China-India conflict to have regional ripple effect
Azzam Khan, August 21, 2017

The tension mounting between the two rivals, China and India, is having a spillover effect in the region. And with Bangladesh considered to be its tried and tested friend, India expects full support, even use of its territory, in the advent of a war with China. The question is, will the Bangladesh government risk incurring the wrath of the people by standing up against China and in favour of India? Despite historical ties and a host of commonalities, the general public of Bangladesh is not exactly enamored of India. They tend to eye India’s overtures with a degree of suspicion.

The rest of the South Asian countries will weigh the pros and cons of the situation too. Pakistan is as staunch a friend of China as it is a foe of India. Sri Lanka has its grievances against India too. Nepal, which had so long been in a subservient position vis-à-vis India, has taken a firmer stand in recent times. Bhutan has often been referred to as a vassal state, but recently it exerted itself and told India to withdraw its troops from Dokhlam.

India, of course, will want and expect its perceived allies to stand by its side against its foe. If a war breaks out with China, due to geo-political reasons, India will want to strengthen its military presence in certain South Asian countries. But perhaps that will not be as easy as before. The Big Brother may find muscle-flexing to be not as easy as it had expected. After all, China has stepped out of closed-door isolation and is building bridges with South Asia nations. And China has established a reputation from reliable bridges, both literal and figurative.

In its editorial on 19 August, Indian daily Anandabazar remarked that India would be more at risk if there was a war with China. It also commented on the neighborhood equation, writing: “Delhi will put pressure on the South Asian countries so that China can’t avail any advantage from them. On the other hand, Beijing will also be determined to ensure that none of the neighboring the countries become a third force for India.”

India’s overtures may well have a counter effect, as the Anandabazar editorial indicates: “If Delhi actually forces the South Asian countries to be its third force or deploys its military troops on their territory, then there is the possibility of anti-India politics strengthening further in these countries. Beijing will take advantage of this.”

India may perceive that it has friendly governments at the helm in Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan or Sri Lanka but it won’t be easy or pragmatic to ignore the pressure of domestic politics. Perhaps these countries will not be so enthusiastic with playing the role of a B-Team for India.

The insurgents in India’s northeastern states will be of concern to the country if the conflict with China takes on serious proportions. The insurgents will not hesitate to use the situation to their advantage. In the past India had support from Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal and Bangladesh to keep the insurgent forces under control. If there is a war with China, the pressure on these countries will mount. But the countries will now be well aware that their support to India will not go down well with China. This will be a blatant stand against China on behalf of India. So how far these countries will succumb to Delhi’s pressure, remains a question. Political prudence will play a vital role here. Plus, there is an underlying resentment in all these countries against Delhi’s arrogant attitude towards its neighbors. A war with China may appear as a chance of paying the bully back in its own coin.

As indicated previously, Pakistan is a steadfast ally of China. China has bluntly stated that if India can deploy troops in Bhutan as a third force, then China’s military can take up position in Kashmir on behalf of Pakistan. Pakistan will only be too eager to reap benefits from the China-India conflict. Agitation in Kashmir will grow and the insurgency will flare up further.

So, while the unrest during a possible China-India war will sweep through the entire region, the post war period will also be a matter of concern. The South Asian economy will be hit hard. Anandabazar comments, “If India is defeated in the war, and that is most likely, then Chinese control of South Asia’s geo-politics will grow even stronger. In fact, South Asian politics may turn towards China. As it is, India has gradually become a loner in South Asian politics.”

The editorial goes as far as to express fear that in the advent of a war with China, India will be afflicted with the metaphorical ‘Spanish cancer’ that accelerated the defeat of Napoleon. A China-India war will not just be a slap in the face for Modi, but will shame India before the entire world. Its blustering belligerence will turn to ashes.
http://southasianmonitor.com/2017/08/21/china-india-conflict-regional-ripple-effect/