What would happen if US, EU, Japan, S.Korea completely cut business with China?

[beijingwalker]

Please stop lying, if you can help it. Can you point to any post that I have made that tells China what or what not to do?

You are doing it now, tell we Chinese we should do or say and what we shouldn't.

 

[VCheng]

You are doing it now, tell we Chinese we should do or say and what we shouldn't.

LOL. Say whatever you wish as you are permitted by your communist overlords, but expect to be called out for such unsolicited advice:

US should really set its mind on gun violence, drug overdosing, homelessness, high crime rate... by the way, their infrastructure also needs a liftup.

 

[beijingwalker]

LOL. Say whatever you wish as you are permitted by your communist overlords, but expect to be called out for such unsolicited advice:

LOL. Say whatever you wish as you are permitted by your CIA white overlords.

 

[VCheng]

LOL. Say whatever you wish as you are permitted by your CIA white overlords.

Except that I do not need their permission. However, In communist China, you are judged right down to your social scores. Tsk, Tsk. No wonder Taiwan wants to remain free, and many others like Tibet, Hong Kong and Xinjiang are struggling to be free. And they all will. soon.

 

[beijingwalker]

Except that I do not need their permission. However, In communist China, you are judged right down to your social scores. Tsk, Tsk. No wonder Taiwan wants to remain free, and many others like Tibet, Hong Kong and Xinjiang are struggling to be free. And they all will. soon.

lOl, you just live under a rock for long, protests always happen in China and I even post many anti Xi posts and videos here, you are just a brainwashed white wannabe never being able to see the world in the true light.

 

[VCheng]

lOl, you just live under a rock for long, protests always happen in China and I even post many anti Xi posts and videos here, you are just a brainwashed white wannabe never being able to see the world in the true light.

So obviously shiny new high speed trains are not stopping the people's desire to be free from the communist overlords. It is quite evident already.

 

[beijingwalker]

So obviously shiny new high speed trains are not stopping the people's desire to be free from the communist overlords. It is quite evident already.

Evident? you are so brainwashed by western media, that's the only evidence you can see. I lived in US, I know it very well. did you ever live in China? I know what I talk about casue I have first hand experience in both east and west, but you know nothing under your rock.

 

[VCheng]

Evident? you are so brainwashed by western media, that's the only evidence you can see. I lived in US, I know it very well.

That explains your jealousy at least.

Just wait until the Taliban cross over to Xinjiang. It will be fun to watch.

 

[beijingwalker]

That explains your jealousy at least.

Just wait until the Taliban cross over to Xinjiang. It will be fun to watch.

lOl, welcome, are you one of them? when will you come? haven't see any of your guys for 6 years already.

 

[VCheng]

lOl, welcome, are you one of them? when will you come? haven't see any of your guys for 6 years already.

5 years? Taliban are patient. Just wait. It is only a matter of time.

 

[beijingwalker]

5 years? Taliban are patient. Just wait. It is only a matter of time.

sorry I was wrong, I just chekced , it's 7 years already, waiting for you to come back for so long..

 

[VCheng]

sorry I was wrong, I just chekced , it's 7 years already, waiting for you to come back for so long..

LOL. The godless commie heathens have only suppressed Islam for the last few decades, they will soon learn they cannot suppress what has been there for thousands of years: Religion.

 

[beijingwalker]

LOL. The godless commie heathens have only suppressed Islam for the last few decades, they will soon learn they cannot suppress what has been there for thousands of years: Religion.

Lol, still waiting for you terrorists to come back, how long will you keep us waiting?

 

[Foinikas]

I don't know about now,but...I remember when I was a kid,I could read on various things stuff like "MADE IN USA" or "MADE IN WEST GERMANY" OR "MADE IN JAPAN". It was such a simpler time. A time where you had a souvenir from a country and it would read "Made in France" or "Made in Greece" and not the same "Made in China".

I miss that era.

 

[Abdul Rehman Majeed]

100% decoupling is not possible. Especially for EU. Every country has its own independent China policy. Supposing this extreme scenario happens, what the world would be like?

My conclusion is: Both China and the west are the victims. But China will be the winner.

For China, Of course there would be short term economic chaos. But I believe Chinese living standard will resume to the level of today in 5 years. In 2021, China’s trade surplus with US is 676 billion USD. With EU the trade surplus is 250 billion USD. China has trade deficit with Japan and S.Korea. Overall China will lose 900 billion USD trade surplus. It won’t hurt China too much in the long run. 1)SE Asian countries, India, Latin American countries, African countries will benefit from the new cold war. And they will have bigger purchasing power for Chinese goods. 2)China’s FX reserve benefits Americans more than Chinese. China used most of its FX reserve to buy US debts. Which improves Americans welfare, instead of Chinese. Just like Chinese economist Wen Tiejun said: “China is like a cow. US stripped its cowhide twice. First by using USD to import cheap goods from China. Second by selling US debts. Most US dollars will come back to US for free .”

For the west, the consequences of cold war 2.0 will be much more serious than arrogant westerners expected. China is not Soviet Union. Who was an armed natural resources exporter. Decoupling with China will hit west’s economy very hard.

From demand aspect to say. Westerners are optimistic because they are the low end and middle end products buyers and they believe China is replaceable. Fact is China is not replaceable. Building an intact no-China supply chain outside China needs huge amount of money. The west doesn’t have that money. Even if the new supply chain, by all odds, is successful built. It can not compete with China’s because only China can make best cost performance. People in the west have to pay more money for lower quality goods. This supply chain will specially serve for the western countries. Other non-west countries will still buy goods produced by China-in supply chain.

From supply aspect to say. The west firstly will lose China market. Which is 25% S.Korea total export, 50% Germany car export, 20% Apple sale. The number would be bigger if take the indirect export to China and investment income from China into account. Secondly, China will have to build its own high end goods industries. Once breakthroughs are made, China will sell them to other non-west countries. Western countries will become poorer for losing business to China in world market. Don’t doubt China has the ability to produce high end goods. It’s already happening in many fields. Semiconductor will be next.

The west will lose big part of money printing privilege. US dollar and Euro will definitely not be used in the China-in supply chain. Countries in this supply chain will not play west’s cow role anymore. Non-west countries will be richer. West will be poorer.

There are two reasons that guarantee China will win cold war 2.0.

1)China has an intelligent, hardworking, disciplined, creative work force. Which the west combined can not compete with in quantity, and in quality in the long run.

2)Average income of Chinese labors is much lower than west’s. Don’t misunderstand me. I’m not going to talk about low cost stuff. After full competition between the two camps, the income levels of the two sides will tend to reflect their real quality. Which means Chinese income will grow while westerners’ salary will drop, sharply. Which side will fall first then?

US and EU are allies of China.

US & UK saved China from the Japanese during WWII.

US & EU have been supporting China economical and politically to keep the Japanese down and out.

So why would US & EU sever relations with China?

This topic makes no sense.