What makes India stand behind PM Modi, despite the demonetisation chaos?
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Echo_419
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Kyusuibu Honbu
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Dragon Ball
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Cross posting from another forum a very informative post:
Chandragupta wrote:This forum has become an echo chamber. Any criticism or questions are drowned out and only praise is allowed. Talk about living in ivory towers.
I just came back from the bank hoping to withdraw some money but they had no cash. Everybody in the queue was angry and abusing the banks and the PM.
How so ? You are extrapolating a personal anecdote as a broad fact. RBI, from it's 'ivory tower' announced that As of Dec 7, Rs.11.85 lakh crore were deposited. On Nov 27 that figure was 8.11 lakh crore, and a week before that, 5.xx lakh crore. Total cash outstanding was around Rs.14.xx lakh crore. Simultaneously, the latest data posted above shows that Rs.4.xx lakh crore in additional cash was disbursed since Nov 10 . Over 80% of the work is done.
What does this tell you ? Those lines, despite being long, are effective. Everything is working out way ahead of the 50 day deadline. Worthless old cash has been deposited, and new cash has been disbursed, across the country. The banking system has scaled up its effort 10x or 100x above typical volumes.
Chandragupta wrote:It seems like all black money has been laundered. And it is going to be a tough mountain to climb for the Government to try and get BM in the net.
This is the kind of criticism you want to make ? "Seems like" ? Please do criticize, but please show some rigor. People aren't responding to such criticism with 'seems like you are wrong. I think so". Hard data is being quoted.
It's absolutely true that there are long lines and frayed tempers. But that's not criticism against this. That is a mathematical fact . There are 460 million working age people, approx 400 million bank accounts, approz 100,000 bank branches, and 50 days. Assume a certain rate of processing and the math gives you a picture of what the lines will be like. Now plug in how many deposits have been made, and ask yourself if the rate of processing (80% of cash deposited/exchanged in 4 weeks out of total 7 weeks planned) is good or bad ?
When you deal with numbers like in India, lines will be long. They're long at cinemas, at Kumbh Melas and now at bank branches. The amount of surge traffic is impossible to add capacity for at reasonable cost within our current means, e.g. 'Govt should have built 10x more bank branches before DeMo'...
IMHO "forum has become an echo chamber" is essentially a response to anecdotal observations receiving data as response. Largescale loss of confidence should manifest in the form of public rioting, destruction of bank premises etc. Where are these stories ? After all, an antagonist press would gleefully show pictures of bank buildings burning down and people lynching bank officials. Rigor is necesssary. Criticism without rigor should not expect to go unchallenged. When I google 'India bank lines' I see lots of pics of long lines. All orderly and serpentine. No burning buildings, blood, tear gas or anything. The very fact that 50/100-deep lines are orderly is astounding - by popular belief they're 'supposed to' all crowded the counter, after all...
Another claim is 'should have planned this better'. But that's a very superficial argument. Pretty much no one who makes that argument has any idea *how* it can be planned better. It is a rhetorical construct. When queried the answer is typically 'that's GoI's or RBIs job to figure out'. Again, this is not meaningful criticism, and often just demonstrates that the person egostically thinks it could have been done better, even if he/she has no idea, or no interest in explaining how, in a manner others cannot criticize in response. Accepting such criticism means we agree not to bother about understanding what was wrong, how it went wrong, and what measures could have fixed it. Rather, a conclusion has been established and no leading facts are required. Is that fair ?
Yet another claim is that "Government should have figured everything out beforehand". But that reflects a profound lack of experience at the issues associated with leading enormous new initiatives . DeMo is several orders of magnitude larger in scale and scope than anything of the sort that any other nation has ever attempted in the history of mankind. The Chief of Staff of the Prussian Army during Bismarck's time, Helmuth von Moltke, once famously said "no prior plan survives initial contact with the enemy". The best plan isn't one that figures out everything beforehand as a grand strategy, because they can't. It's one that has a basic strategic structure, but which can be adapted to immediate tactical requirements effectively. GoI is doing this, by and large. The incoming data bears this out.
Chandragupta wrote:This forum has become an echo chamber. Any criticism or questions are drowned out and only praise is allowed. Talk about living in ivory towers.
I just came back from the bank hoping to withdraw some money but they had no cash. Everybody in the queue was angry and abusing the banks and the PM.
How so ? You are extrapolating a personal anecdote as a broad fact. RBI, from it's 'ivory tower' announced that As of Dec 7, Rs.11.85 lakh crore were deposited. On Nov 27 that figure was 8.11 lakh crore, and a week before that, 5.xx lakh crore. Total cash outstanding was around Rs.14.xx lakh crore. Simultaneously, the latest data posted above shows that Rs.4.xx lakh crore in additional cash was disbursed since Nov 10 . Over 80% of the work is done.
What does this tell you ? Those lines, despite being long, are effective. Everything is working out way ahead of the 50 day deadline. Worthless old cash has been deposited, and new cash has been disbursed, across the country. The banking system has scaled up its effort 10x or 100x above typical volumes.
Chandragupta wrote:It seems like all black money has been laundered. And it is going to be a tough mountain to climb for the Government to try and get BM in the net.
This is the kind of criticism you want to make ? "Seems like" ? Please do criticize, but please show some rigor. People aren't responding to such criticism with 'seems like you are wrong. I think so". Hard data is being quoted.
It's absolutely true that there are long lines and frayed tempers. But that's not criticism against this. That is a mathematical fact . There are 460 million working age people, approx 400 million bank accounts, approz 100,000 bank branches, and 50 days. Assume a certain rate of processing and the math gives you a picture of what the lines will be like. Now plug in how many deposits have been made, and ask yourself if the rate of processing (80% of cash deposited/exchanged in 4 weeks out of total 7 weeks planned) is good or bad ?
When you deal with numbers like in India, lines will be long. They're long at cinemas, at Kumbh Melas and now at bank branches. The amount of surge traffic is impossible to add capacity for at reasonable cost within our current means, e.g. 'Govt should have built 10x more bank branches before DeMo'...
IMHO "forum has become an echo chamber" is essentially a response to anecdotal observations receiving data as response. Largescale loss of confidence should manifest in the form of public rioting, destruction of bank premises etc. Where are these stories ? After all, an antagonist press would gleefully show pictures of bank buildings burning down and people lynching bank officials. Rigor is necesssary. Criticism without rigor should not expect to go unchallenged. When I google 'India bank lines' I see lots of pics of long lines. All orderly and serpentine. No burning buildings, blood, tear gas or anything. The very fact that 50/100-deep lines are orderly is astounding - by popular belief they're 'supposed to' all crowded the counter, after all...
Another claim is 'should have planned this better'. But that's a very superficial argument. Pretty much no one who makes that argument has any idea *how* it can be planned better. It is a rhetorical construct. When queried the answer is typically 'that's GoI's or RBIs job to figure out'. Again, this is not meaningful criticism, and often just demonstrates that the person egostically thinks it could have been done better, even if he/she has no idea, or no interest in explaining how, in a manner others cannot criticize in response. Accepting such criticism means we agree not to bother about understanding what was wrong, how it went wrong, and what measures could have fixed it. Rather, a conclusion has been established and no leading facts are required. Is that fair ?
Yet another claim is that "Government should have figured everything out beforehand". But that reflects a profound lack of experience at the issues associated with leading enormous new initiatives . DeMo is several orders of magnitude larger in scale and scope than anything of the sort that any other nation has ever attempted in the history of mankind. The Chief of Staff of the Prussian Army during Bismarck's time, Helmuth von Moltke, once famously said "no prior plan survives initial contact with the enemy". The best plan isn't one that figures out everything beforehand as a grand strategy, because they can't. It's one that has a basic strategic structure, but which can be adapted to immediate tactical requirements effectively. GoI is doing this, by and large. The incoming data bears this out.
IndoCarib
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http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities...bacco-smuggling-to-a-halt/article16790027.ece
Nothing, even a series of raids, could check the steady flow of banned hazardous products to the State through the rail route. But demonetisation appears to have done the trick.
Nothing, even a series of raids, could check the steady flow of banned hazardous products to the State through the rail route. But demonetisation appears to have done the trick.
Soumitra
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BJP is not taking any decision as a state govt of TN. That is being done by AIADMK (OPS now, Jayalalitha previously)
BJP is taking decisions as a central govt
Study the Constitution. There are 3 lists - Union List, State List and Concurrent List. Printing of Money comes under Union list and BJP took decision under that
Regarding BJP and AIADMK relation see this
This fellow Modi is a fraud. He is jumping with joy at the death of our great TAMIL LEADER but pretend to grieve.
During the Cheenai flood when people died and 1000s of homes were destroyed, his office released a photo of him flying over Chennai in a helicopter and viewing through the window flood damage. Within hours people pointed out that it was a photo shopped fake photo. His office said that it was a mistake and removed the photo from the web site. It is not a mistake. It was a calculated effort to fool Tamil people.
During the Cheenai flood when people died and 1000s of homes were destroyed, his office released a photo of him flying over Chennai in a helicopter and viewing through the window flood damage. Within hours people pointed out that it was a photo shopped fake photo. His office said that it was a mistake and removed the photo from the web site. It is not a mistake. It was a calculated effort to fool Tamil people.
neem456
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You sir, seem to have lost it due to the grief you are in for the demise of "Amma".
Unstable mind, unstable thoughts.
Kathin_Singh
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And I think you are fraud false flaggeer!
randomradio
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AIADMK was supposed to join BJP this year. It was part of the NDA govt during Vajpayee's time. Meaning an alliance is always possible.
But I don't know why Pakistanis are interested in this.
And Jayalalitha quit the alliance. So BJP immediately invited and accepted DMK into the alliance. Then DMK also quit the alliance.
BJP got 2% vote in TN in 2014.
randomradio
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It's simple politics. Nothing special to quit and join alliances, even Shiv Sena does that.
Irrelevant.
kingofkings
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Immortan.Joe
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No, he wont. Reasons being:-
(1) There is no opposition to him; and the namesake opposition he has is fundamentally discredited. Rahul being an imbecile is a running gag even in villages; Kejariwal has proven himself to be a bhaand (and a traitor too); Mamta, Mulayam, Lalu, and Mayawati are synonymous with corruption; Jayalalitah is dead and even undead,she was leaning towards BJP; Nitish is looking for an opportunity to return to NDA.
(2) Opposition has played their hand too early and in eyes of people ,came out as parties who are supporting black money and corrupt people. Had they waited to do their randi rona until the initial enthusiasm of people have worn off, they may have come out as genuinely concerned about hardship of people.
Thus even if this move fails, the guiding thought of people would be "At least he tried". BJP made this move as there were no circumstance in which they could come out worse than they go in.
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