What is India's true goal in Balochistan long-term?

[TheSolution]

Can we ban Pajeets from this thread, you can already tell they are gonna derail it with, " we iz peeceful sar we not in balochistan sar"

 

[Samurai_assassin]

Nuclear weapons allow to bridge the conventional gap between Pakistan and Indian militaries.

If the Indian miltiary begins to pose a risk where Pakistan Army struggles internally to quell any strife, because it is focused on a conflict with India, then it will be raised to the nuclear level to get them to back off.

The indian army hasn't had the experience of grueling war for decades. Pakistan is well experienced and will drag any confrontation out. Also many of the Pak civilian population will take up arms as this will be seen as a war between muslims and kafir idol worshippers.

 

[Erieye]

The indian army hasn't had the experience of grueling war for decades. Pakistan is well experienced and will drag any confrontation out. Also many of the Pak civilian population will take up arms as this will be seen as a war between muslims and kafir idol worshippers.

I don't think you understand my point.

India won't do any geurilla warfare, they'll simply tire out the Pakistani military and the airforce which is vital to suppress any civil war going on, or any separatist insurgency, by engaging conventionally and preoccupy the military.

If no military can supress it, then seccession becomes more easy. If the military is present - it becomes close to impossible because they can focus on it.

Nuclear weapons can get India to back off, especially if it overwhelms the Pakistan military.

 

[AlKardai]

The indian army hasn't had the experience of grueling war for decades. Pakistan is well experienced and will drag any confrontation out. Also many of the Pak civilian population will take up arms as this will be seen as a war between muslims and kafir idol worshippers.

Any incursion by the Indians will end extremely badly for them, and they will likely be sent back with a flea in their ear. I doubt India can compete against Pakistan on a conventional level, in Kashmir or even throughout the Punjab IB.
However, if the Incursion is large-scale, India may win through sheer manpower and the ability to launch incursions from any point on the IB and LOC at pretty much any given time. Not to mention that indie may even find a way to launchpad troops from the Afghan side.

My point being Any Invasion of Pakistan by India will simultaneously come with an Afghan offensive by its side.

 

[Samurai_assassin]

I don't think you understand my point.

India won't do any geurilla warfare, they'll simply tire out the Pakistani military and the airforce which is vital to suppress any civil war going on, or any separatist insurgency, by engaging conventionally and preoccupy the military.

If no military can supress it, then seccession becomes more easy. If the military is present - it becomes close to impossible because they can focus on it.

Nuclear weapons can get India to back off, especially if it overwhelms the Pakistan military.

I understand your point. The corrupt sardars need to be dealt with.

 

[TheSolution]

You are giving too much credit to India . India has too much to lose (our reputation) for instigating insurgency in Balochistan. All we do is give lip service-- which doesn't cost much. Your country likes to divert your attention from daily troubles you face to a boogieman who is out there to get you.

Our 100% priority is to develop our country but it is not possible with neighbors who have started four wars. Imagine if you lived in peace and traded like euro zone. We would be one prosperous south Asia.

Your reputation??

The peaceful clowns are here, your reputation is well-known by Modi supported communal riots, treatment of Muslims, and Kashmir globally.

Don't derail the thread with foolery such as this.

 

[AlKardai]

I don't think you understand my point.

India won't do any geurilla warfare, they'll simply tire out the Pakistani military and the airforce which is vital to suppress any civil war going on, or any separatist insurgency, by engaging conventionally and preoccupy the military.

If no military can supress it, then seccession becomes more easy. If the military is present - it becomes close to impossible because they can focus on it.

Nuclear weapons can get India to back off, especially if it overwhelms the Pakistan military.

It's likely that the Indian military would likely be used to hold off the PA, whilst the BLA take what they want and the TTP start declaring their rule in different places.
India's next objective would be to occupy the land up to the KPK border and establish a buffer zone between them, and the Afghans. Even they aren't stupid enough to get that friendly

 

[TheSolution]

Any incursion by the Indians will end extremely badly for them, and they will likely be sent back with a flea in their ear. I doubt India can compete against Pakistan on a conventional level, in Kashmir or even throughout the Punjab IB.
However, if the Incursion is large-scale, India may win through sheer manpower and the ability to launch incursions from any point on the IB and LOC at pretty much any given time. Not to mention that indie may even find a way to launchpad troops from the Afghan side.

My point being Any Invasion of Pakistan by India will simultaneously come with an Afghan offensive by its side.

The conventional gap between both sides continues to grow as India's economy climbs.

Which makes it easy to see why nuclear weapons are such a crucial requirement.

Now imagine if your already smaller army, now has to fight against a conventional Indian invasion and Afghan invasion while a civil war is going on.

It makes very difficult to contain the civil war forces, hence you can threat the invaders to back off or be blown apart with nukes.

 

[Erieye]

I understand your point. The corrupt sardars need to be dealt with.

Yeah, that's for another discussion on how to actually deal with the insurgency itself.

This is to show you, that India has been successful in keeping Pakistan economically and infrastructurally bogged down partially by the support for insurgent groups which prevent the environment for such.

And also why nuclear weapons are so vital for our defence.

 

[AgnosticIndian]

Nuclear weapons allow to bridge the conventional gap between Pakistan and Indian militaries.

If the Indian miltiary begins to pose a risk where Pakistan Army struggles internally to quell any strife, because it is focused on a conflict with India, then it will be raised to the nuclear level to get them to back off.

I don't think the plan ever could have been to distract conventional forces while separatists quickly declare independence, or to send in the army to fight with the separatists in Pakistani territory, Bangladesh style. It's not like you can use a refugee crisis as a "cause of war" to gang up on the Pakistani army for Balochistan or KPK separatists, nuclear weapons or not. Nuclear weapons would only help in such a scenario if Pakistan wants to attack first but also wants to insure that it doesn't break up if it suddenly starts losing, which would be quite dumb.

Insurgents will win only if a mutiny happens in the army, or the hatred for the army leads to even Punjabis rising up against it. Which seems unlikely, and nukes will only help as a "help me or I'll shoot myself" threat in that case.

 

[AlKardai]

The conventional gap between both sides continues to grow as India's economy climbs.

Which makes it easy to see why nuclear weapons are such a crucial requirement.

Now imagine if your already smaller army, now has to fight against a conventional Indian invasion and Afghan invasion while a civil war is going on.

It makes very difficult to contain the civil war forces, hence you can threat the invaders to back off or be blown apart with nukes.

Thinking about it though, it wouldn't necessarily hurt India to step up the nuclear scale too.
Once it comes to nukes, everything becomes a one-way ladder- there is no turning back.
For this reason, Indian Special forces will likely be deployed to de-nuclearize Pakistan as soon as possible. If they take away the nuclear capabilities, they take away their only real threat

 

[Samurai_assassin]

Any incursion by the Indians will end extremely badly for them, and they will likely be sent back with a flea in their ear. I doubt India can compete against Pakistan on a conventional level, in Kashmir or even throughout the Punjab IB.
However, if the Incursion is large-scale, India may win through sheer manpower and the ability to launch incursions from any point on the IB and LOC at pretty much any given time. Not to mention that indie may even find a way to launchpad troops from the Afghan side.

My point being Any Invasion of Pakistan by India will simultaneously come with an Afghan offensive by its side.

Pak Generals must be hold some accountability. Why have they allowed the situation to spiral out of control? On at least two occasions why did Bajwa not send air support to Baloch FC, army and police who battled the swine BLA and their whores BRA? Why did the militery provide pickup trucks rather then armoured carriers to the security forces knowing hundreds had died in IED blasts?
Top Brass has ignored the core situation as they have involved themselves in politics by backing rivial politicans. This has given a free open hand to insurgents to launch never ending vicious attacks on our police and soliders. Thus no peace or security.

 

[waz]

Folks in reality their reach is actually not strong at all. Many of these 'activists' have fled abroad and in combination with shadowy sponsors work to hit the region.
Look at the state of the insurgency does the military have any plan? Nope. The FC get hit now and then, the people lie in limbo at the mercy of those disgusting pharaoh sardars, investment in the region is targeted at 'economic' potential rather than uplift of basic services.




The insurgency is somewhat comparable to India's red corridor conflict with the Naxalites and Maoists. Where are they now? No where. They've been working since 2016 on a plan and had everything from economic incentives, cutting off support to the rebels, targeted COIN operations and they are more or less done.

Take a look;

From Bihar to Andhra, how India fought, and won, its 50-yr war with Left-wing extremism

Maoists still have strength in certain regions but it’s grossly untenable to say they pose an existential threat to India as they did in late 2000s.

theprint.in

I'm sorry Pakistan is and always has been it's own worst enemy. How can this drag now for 40 years with no end in sight?

 

[Erieye]

It's likely that the Indian military would likely be used to hold off the PA, whilst the BLA take what they want and the TTP start declaring their rule in different places.
India's next objective would be to occupy the land up to the KPK border and establish a buffer zone between them, and the Afghans. Even they aren't stupid enough to get that friendly

Indian army would be used against any forces that tackle civil war/separatist insurgency elements, to allow them to operate more easily. (so the army/air force/FC)

India with a massive convential gap can do this, and pakistan would struggle to prevent it due to smaller size. nuclear weapons get it to back off.

Folks in reality their reach is actually not strong at all. Many of these 'activists' have fled abroad and in combination with shadowy sponsors work to hit the region.
Look at the state of the insurgency does the military have any plan? Nope. The FC get hit now and then, the people lie in limbo at the mercy of those disgusting pharaoh sardars, investment in the region is targeted at 'economic' potential rather than uplift of basic services.




The insurgency is somewhat comparable to India's red corridor conflict with the Naxalites and Maoists. Where are they now? No where. They've been working since 2016 on a plan and had everything from economic incentives, cutting off support to the rebels, targeted COIN operations and they are more or less done.

Take a look;

From Bihar to Andhra, how India fought, and won, its 50-yr war with Left-wing extremism

Maoists still have strength in certain regions but it’s grossly untenable to say they pose an existential threat to India as they did in late 2000s.

theprint.in

I'm sorry Pakistan is and always has been it's own worst enemy. How can this drag now for 40 years with no end in sight?

It is strong enough to keep Pakistan bogged down in a seems-to-be neverending insurgency that has prevented economic & infrastructural development, FDI, internal investment, damaged CPEC partially, no peace.

Even Cricket is being affected.

So the Indian objective is still succeeding if you look at it objectively.

 

[Samurai_assassin]

Yeah, that's for another discussion on how to actually deal with the insurgency itself.

This is to show you, that India has been successful in keeping Pakistan economically and infrastructurally bogged down partially by the support for insurgent groups which prevent the environment for such.

And also why nuclear weapons are so vital for our defence.

Unfortunatly all these weapons, missiles, drones and JF fighter jets are only for the purpose of millitery parades and museums.
Pakistan does not have the intention to use them. (Not referring to the use of nuclear weapons)
Acquiring nuclear weapons was a must for Pakistans survival otherwise Pakistan would be like Syria, Iraq, yemen, Libya and Somalia today.