Daily attacks are on going. Afghans sitting on the fence will see the writing on the wall.
Дізнавайтеся і вивчайте останні новини і події Афганістану за допомогою інтерактивної карти на сайті і мобільних додатках. Фокус на безпеці, боротьбою з тероризмом, політиці
afghanistan.liveuamap.com
IMHO, A good indication (and it’s just my guess) which areas will fall first and which will fall last is to see which areas at the most and the least voter turnout of eligible voters in the 2019 election. Page 36 of this PDF file from the US institute of peace is a review of the 2019 election. It outlines what percent of the provinces that turned out. Daykundi and Bamiyan turned out the most. Most of the provinces that went to Ghani turned out the least. If his power base falls, Ghani might be out, as his main rival (Abdullah Abdullah) may claim legitimacy.
BTW, do you think they will take Herat or will the Iranians make a play for the city with an (overt or covert) invasion? Could Qatar broker a back channel negotiations to protect Iranian and Shia interests in Afghanistan in exchange for the Talibs taking those areas? Isn’t it in the interest of the gulf nations to prevent Iranians expansion into Afghanistan as they have done in Syria and Iraq?