What Country has the Most Unsustainable Debt? (hint: not Greece)

[Shotgunner51]

I was talking about internal debt, which is the bulk of both nation's debt.

Talking about mixing of concepts, you were quoting my question on external debt, wow that's funny. So again, how are you gonna pay your external debt? Wow your external debt is setting new records every now and then!

Foreign currency reserves of $1.4 tn cannot pay internal debt of $25 tn plus.

On forex reserves, where did you find this $1.4 tn BS? China's forex reserves is US$3.77 tn. Be literate would you?

What idiot would ever relate forex reserves to servicing internal debt?

Again what is the US$25 tn debt BS? In China government debt is denominated in RMB, and just government revenue alone is bigger than your whole economy.

That calls for a write-off. You are mixing up concepts.

So if there is debt then write off? Every countries on this planet should call for total write off then! OK, truly shining 2012!

 

[tranquilium]

The rest of your post does not merit a reply, this part does.

We will repay it the same way that you will repay yours - by writing it down. And if it will impact our economy, credit rating and currency negatively, think about what will happen to China when it writes down its debt.



The average total debt in other major countries ranges between 150-220 per cent. That could be as much/lower than China's, depending on which Chinese estimates are correct.

No it isn't.

State Debt Ranking Percent GDP for 2016 - Charts

This is just local and state debt alone in US at the current fiscal year. Which comes to be 813.48% of the GDP. Of course, I won't bother with Japan where the public debt alone is in the 200% range. Local and state debt is also only a part of the total debt in US. Even more was tied up in mortgages. This is also without getting into the corporate debts which your article also "guessed" as part of China's total debt. Show me actual numbers that backup your claim.

 

[Jacob Martin]

The printing money can buy goods, it is real money. The printing money can't buy goods, it's paper.

???

So again, how are you gonna pay your external debt? Wow your external debt is setting new records every now and then!

We service our external debt, and on time. If and when we stop doing that, there will be a default, and I am sure that you will hear about it.

On forex reserves, where did you find this $1.4 tn BS? China's forex reserves is US$3.77 tn. Be literate would you?

You are including money parked by FIIs which, while technically included in reserves, is not for your government to spend. Plus you have other stabilization fund requirements as well. China bled $190 b in capital flight in seven weeks leading upto September. You also have to set aside stabilization funds for balancing your currency. I don't have the exact figure for that but bottomline is that your stabilization requirements are very high. In addition, you can only liquidate a certain percentage of the US treasury debt that you own (currently $1.22 tn). Stop getting agitated, Do the math, and you will see that the actual amount of reserves is not more than $1.4 tn.

What idiot would ever relate forex reserves to servicing internal debt?

That point was made to emphasize the point that your forex reserves cannot pay your internal debt. You are right, only an idiot would mention forex reserve in a conversation involving all debt.

Again what is the US$25 tn debt BS? In China government debt is denominated in RMB, and just government revenue alone is bigger than your whole economy.

That figure is a charitable benchmark for China's total debt. It could be much higher for all the world knows. You don't tell us too much, do you? As for the dollar figure, we understand things in dollars not RMB so humour us.

So if there is debt then write off? Every countries on this planet should call for total write off then! OK, truly shining 2012!

If there is nothing called debt write-off, your economy is finished. So you better hope (pray) that I am right on the point that you theoretically CAN write off the debt.

No it isn't.

State Debt Ranking Percent GDP for 2016 - Charts

This is just local and state debt alone in US at the current fiscal year. Which comes to be 813.48% of the GDP. Of course, I won't bother with Japan where the public debt alone is in the 200% range. Local and state debt is also only a part of the total debt in US. Even more was tied up in mortgages. This is also without getting into the corporate debts which your article also "guessed" as part of China's total debt. Show me actual numbers that backup your claim.

The notional value of derivative contract in the world today stands at nearly a quadrillion dollars. For every one account where it is held as an asset, there is a corresponding entry somewhere of a debt. A part of it finds its way into the debt figures for most countries, especially developed countries. A substantial part of it is fictitious and will never be repaid to anyone (it cannot be, the total wealth in the world is less than the value of these derivatives). To arrive at the true debt level in the world economy, you have to make a provision for a considerable amount of fictitious derivatives.

 

[tranquilium]

???



We service our external debt, and on time. If and when we stop doing that, there will be a default, and I am sure that you will hear about it.



You are including money parked by FIIs which, while technically included in reserves, is not for your government to spend. Plus you have other stabilization fund requirements as well. China bled $190 b in capital flight in seven weeks leading upto September. You also have to set aside stabilization funds for balancing your currency. I don't have the exact figure for that but bottomline is that your stabilization requirements are very high. In addition, you can only liquidate a certain percentage of the US treasury debt that you own (currently $1.22 tn). Stop getting agitated, Do the math, and you will see that the actual amount of reserves is not more than $1.4 tn.



That point was made to emphasize the point that your forex reserves cannot pay your internal debt. You are right, only an idiot would mention forex reserve in a conversation involving all debt.



That figure is a charitable benchmark for China's total debt. It could be much higher for all the world knows. You don't tell us too much, do you? As for the dollar figure, we understand things in dollars not RMB so humour us.



If there is nothing called debt write-off, your economy is finished. So you better hope (pray) that I am right on the point that you theoretically CAN write off the debt.



The notional value of derivative contract in the world today stands at nearly a quadrillion dollars. For every one account where it is held as an asset, there is a corresponding entry somewhere of a debt. A part of it finds its way into the debt figures for most countries, especially developed countries. A substantial part of it is fictitious and will never be repaid to anyone (it cannot be, the total wealth in the world is less than the value of these derivatives). To arrive at the true debt level in the world economy, you have to make a provision for a considerable amount of fictitious derivatives.

Yeah, and the fact remains that your statement of China was more indebt than other countries is plain wrong.

 

[my2cents]

Its funny India is colored green

Why are you green with envy???

 

[Shotgunner51]

That figure is a charitable benchmark for China's total debt. It could be much higher for all the world knows. You don't tell us too much, do you? As for the dollar figure, we understand things in dollars not RMB so humour us.

The very first post of this thread has figures, %, you can't read or what? Literacy that bad?
And tell me where did you get the $25T BS?
Did you say "coulda" "shoulda" "woulda" be bigger than world knows? OK, let's wait till 2012 and see.
Of course our internal debt is RMB denominated, what yours in dollars? That's humour!

You are including money parked by FIIs which, while technically included in reserves, is not for your government to spend. Plus you have other stabilization fund requirements as well. China bled $190 b in capital flight in seven weeks leading upto September. You also have to set aside stabilization funds for balancing your currency. I don't have the exact figure for that but bottomline is that your stabilization requirements are very high. In addition, you can only liquidate a certain percentage of the US treasury debt that you own (currently $1.22 tn). Stop getting agitated, Do the math, and you will see that the actual amount of reserves is not more than $1.4 tn.

You don't have figures but keep interpreting things out of imagination?
Talking about reduction of Forex, do you know what is SWF? Did you check recent oil market transaction volume? US-T-bills? Gold?
And again your own interpretation of terms, first government debt, now Forex, you have autism and live in your own dream world or what?
Oh I am not agitated at all, instead very amused.

If there is nothing called debt write-off, your economy is finished. So you better hope (pray) that I am right on the point that you theoretically CAN write off the debt.

Oh really? Wow! OK, tell us what debt levels (internal, public, external, ...) will get an economy "finished"?

 

[AndrewJin]

The very first post of this thread has figures, %, you can't read or what? Literacy that bad?
And tell me where did you get the $25T BS?
Did you say "coulda" "shoulda" "woulda" be bigger than world knows? OK, let's wait till 2012 and see.
Of course our internal debt is RMB denominated, what yours in dollars? That's humour!




You don't have figures but keep interpreting things out of imagination?
Talking about reduction of Forex, do you know what is SWF? Did you check recent oil market transaction volume?
And again your own interpretation of terms, first SOE, now Forex, you have autism and live in your own dream world or what?
Oh I am not agitated at all, instead very amused.



Oh really? OK, tell us

Bro, it's useless arguing with Hindus.
It's those people that makes the newly founded country on sub-continent a desperate place.
However, they always blame Italian, Swiss bank, Muslim or fired noodles...

 

[TaiShang]

Bro, it's useless arguing with Hindus.
It's those people that makes the newly founded country on sub-continent a desperate place.
However, they always blame Italian, Swiss bank, Muslim or fired noodles...

Statistically educating Indians is one tough job @Shotgunner51 .

Their style of argument is very much reflective of their governance: Cyclical, future-biased, inconclusive.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Bro, it's useless arguing with Hindus.
It's those people that makes the newly founded country on sub-continent a desperate place.
However, they always blame Italian, Swiss bank, Muslim or fired noodles...

Statistically educating Indians is one tough job @Shotgunner51 .
Their style of argument is very much reflective of their governance: Cyclical, future-biased, inconclusive.

LOL you guys are right!
Just don't know how a debtor nation, a trade deficit nation, with no industrial capability, no resources and pathetic human capital woulda coulda become in 2012? let's wait and see!

 

[Jacob Martin]

Yeah, and the fact remains that your statement of China was more indebt than other countries is plain wrong.

If affirmative statements made with some vigour was proof in itself, you would be right. Unfortunately, that is not the case. China is more endebted than any major country, and what is worst, it is hiding still higher amounts of endebtedness.

When it comes to debt, the supA powan never use PPP.

You are wrong. Internal debt is to be paid by a government within the country, so it is denominated in PPP. Seriously, did none of you have economics as a subject in school?

The very first post of this thread has figures, %, you can't read or what? Literacy that bad?
And tell me where did you get the $25T BS?
Did you say "coulda" "shoulda" "woulda" be bigger than world knows? OK, let's wait till 2012 and see.
Of course our internal debt is RMB denominated, what yours in dollars? That's humour!

You are not a very literate person, I see. So I will try to break it down in simpler language.

China debt not what you say. Some say 207%, some say 280%. I say keep it safe. China also quote GDP in dollar. So I do quickie math and do percentage, which come to $25 tn. China RMB not so important, that is why no one know or care what China economic figure in yuan. Humour in this context mean allow, not make fun. Comprende?

You don't have figures but keep interpreting things out of imagination?
Talking about reduction of Forex, do you know what is SWF? Did you check recent oil market transaction volume? US-T-bills? Gold?
And again your own interpretation of terms, first government debt, now Forex, you have autism and live in your own dream world or what?
Oh I am not agitated at all, instead very amused.

I am not your investment advisor. I gave you the methodology, you do the math. You didn't even know what stabilization funds are.

Oh really? Wow! OK, tell us what debt levels (internal, public, external, ...) will get an economy "finished"?

Your unsustainable spending and NPA mountain will bring down your economy, unless your government writes off the bad debts. Got it?

 

[Shotgunner51]

You are not a very literate person, I see. So I will try to break it down in simpler language.

I know illiteracy and IQ over there is serious, what is the average level now? OK, let me simplify the question: As a debtor nation, how you service the ever-rising foreign debt while you have current account deficit? You understand basic sentence like this right?

China also quote GDP in dollar .... that is why no one know or care what China economic figure in yuan

Wow that's another plain stupid mistake, you do live in your own dream-land don't you? Or it's just pure illiteracy? All countries publish GDP data in their own currency, that RMB in case of China. So india "also" quote in dollar? Go check again joker!

China debt not what you say. Some say 207%, some say 280%. I say keep it safe. .... So I do quickie math and do percentage, which come to $25 tn.

Some say this, some say that, so what's the number? Other than blah blah blah can you for a second say something sure?

Another question is: So exactly what debt level will "finish" an economy?

I am not your investment advisor. I gave you the methodology, you do the math. You didn't even know what stabilization funds are.

Of course you aren't, even if you are I will fire your illiterate brain in the 1st hour! You have own interpretation of government debt, then Forex, and now say China reports GDP in dollar? What methodology you are talking about, all blah blah blah of "some say this", "woulda coulda" and "let's see" and your own invention of economic terms.

Your unsustainable spending and NPA mountain will bring down your economy, unless your government writes off the bad debts. Got it?

Numbers, fact, got any? Well I got some for india, that look very ugly and pessimistic, you wanna see?

 

[AndrewJin]

Well, not yet, we should be fair to Indians. It will be in 2012, though.

There is plenty of time before 2012.
I have full confidence in Hindus, they can nail their massive deficit dilemma.

I know illiteracy and IQ over there is serious, what is the average level now? OK, let me simplify the question: As a debtor nation, how you service the ever-rising foreign debt while you have current account deficit? You understand basic sentence like this right?



Wow that's another stupid mistake, you do live in your own dream-land don't you? Or it's just pure illiteracy? All countries publish GDP data in their own currency, that RMB in case of China. So india "also" quote in dollar? Go check again joker!



Some say this, some say that, so what's the number? Other than blah blah blah can you for a second say something sure?

Another question is: So exactly what debt level will "finish" an economy?



Of course you aren't, even if you are I will fire your illiterate brain in the 1st hour! You have own interpretation of government debt, then Forex, and now say China reports GDP in dollar? What methodology you are talking about, all blah blah blah of "some say this", "woulda coulda" and "let's see" and your own invention of economic terms.



Numbers, fact, got any? Well I got some for india, that look very pessimistic, you wanna see?

Some loser fleeing from filthy street to Deutschland is trying to deliver his delusional economic knowledge to our respected banker in Shanghai.
The Hindu world is simply crazy!

 

[Jacob Martin]

delusional economic knowledge to our respected banker in Shanghai.

The respected banker from Shanghai cannot explain why Chinese banks do not have an NPA write-off procedure, can he? I will get to the rest of his post in a while.

 

[Jacob Martin]

I know illiteracy and IQ over there is serious, what is the average level now? OK, let me simplify the question: As a debtor nation, how you service the ever-rising foreign debt while you have current account deficit? You understand basic sentence like this right?

Current account deficit includes debt servicing and repayment. So one of the reasons that India has a current account deficit is because of repaying its debts. So you are asking that how will India repay its external debt, when that repayment is the reason why it has a deficit? Made sense to you though...

Wow that's another plain stupid mistake, you do live in your own dream-land don't you? Or it's just pure illiteracy? All countries publish GDP data in their own currency, that RMB in case of China. So india "also" quote in dollar? Go check again joker!

Your vehemence and vitriol aregetting the better of you. Everywhere in this thread itself, all numbers are mentioned in USD. Now suddenly you are trying to prove a point by making an obvious statement like "All countries publish GDP data in their own currency". How does that figure in this discussion, anyway?

Some say this, some say that, so what's the number? Other than blah blah blah can you for a second say something sure?

I have cited several articles mentioning China's total debt. Read them. It's not my fault that your government is so shady that no one has an exact figure for your total debt, is it?

Of course you aren't, even if you are I will fire your illiterate brain in the 1st hour! You have own interpretation of government debt, then Forex, and now say China reports GDP in dollar? What methodology you are talking about, all blah blah blah of "some say this", "woulda coulda" and "let's see" and your own invention of economic terms.

Numbers, fact, got any? Well I got some for india, that look very ugly and pessimistic, you wanna see?

This is the part I am really interested in. So you claim to be a banker, right? What is the methodology followed by Chinese banks for declaring NPAs? The answer is, none. Chinese banks can roll-over debt indefinitely. Every once in a while, under government instruction, a certain amount of debt is parcelled off to one of the 4 entities that process distressed assets. This happens in an ad-hoc manner. In reality, Chinese banks are carrying all the NPAs of SOE borrowings that will never be repaid, along with the NPAs from lending to real estate sector where the value of the underlying assets themselves stand greatly reduced. To this, add the borrowings for infrastructure projects.

Who will repay this money? Answer - nobody. It cannot be repaid. The only way out is to gradually increase quantitative easing and make systematic write-offs, and hope no one notices. Theoretically, the Chinese government can bail out the banks. But what about the SOEs that will survive as zombies? Who will bail them out? For how long can the Chinese government keep directing banks to run up NPAs by lending to SOEs that will not repay them?

Look, You are not fooling any of the Indian posters here by skirting around the main issue - that of Chinese debt and NPAs. so the assumption is, you are trying to fool the Chinese posters out here. In that case, you are no better than the Lehman Brothers/Goldman Sachs bankers who refused to acknowledge the extent of the housing debt/derivatives mess in 2008. By maintaining the lie that Chinese banks are healthy, you are defrauding only the Chinese.

As for the bad, abusive language you use, it is a clear sign of your agitation. And that is quite understandable. When a ponzi scheme is being nailed, the conspirators usually make quite a hoo-haa about it. Nothing new in that. i know you have to do that for your home audience.

 

[Asif Durrani]

Current account deficit includes debt servicing and repayment. So one of the reasons that India has a current account deficit is because of repaying its debts. So you are asking that how will India repay its external debt, when that repayment is the reason why it has a deficit? Made sense to you though...



Your vehemence and vitriol aregetting the better of you. Everywhere in this thread itself, all numbers are mentioned in USD. Now suddenly you are trying to prove a point by making an obvious statement like "All countries publish GDP data in their own currency". How does that figure in this discussion, anyway?



I have cited several articles mentioning China's total debt. Read them. It's not my fault that your government is so shady that no one has an exact figure for your total debt, is it?





This is the part I am really interested in. So you claim to be a banker, right? What is the methodology followed by Chinese banks for declaring NPAs? The answer is, none. Chinese banks can roll-over debt indefinitely. Every once in a while, under government instruction, a certain amount of debt is parcelled off to one of the 4 entities that process distressed assets. This happens in an ad-hoc manner. In reality, Chinese banks are carrying all the NPAs of SOE borrowings that will never be repaid, along with the NPAs from lending to real estate sector where the value of the underlying assets themselves stand greatly reduced. To this, add the borrowings for infrastructure projects.

Who will repay this money? Answer - nobody. It cannot be repaid. The only way out is to gradually increase quantitative easing and make systematic write-offs, and hope no one notices. Theoretically, the Chinese government can bail out the banks. But what about the SOEs that will survive as zombies? Who will bail them out? For how long can the Chinese government keep directing banks to run up NPAs by lending to SOEs that will not repay them?

Look, You are not fooling any of the Indian posters here by skirting around the main issue - that of Chinese debt and NPAs. so the assumption is, you are trying to fool the Chinese posters out here. In that case, you are no better than the Lehman Brothers/Goldman Sachs bankers who refused to acknowledge the extent of the housing debt/derivatives mess in 2008. By maintaining the lie that Chinese banks are healthy, you are defrauding only the Chinese.

As for the bad, abusive language you use, it is a clear sign of your agitation. And that is quite understandable. When a ponzi scheme is being nailed, the conspirators usually make quite a hoo-haa about it. Nothing new in that. i know you have to do that for your home audience.

Hah! Chinomics! My favorite! You should have tinkled me about this thread. Who is the Chinese ringleader in this forum?