What can Hezbollah do that it couldn't do in 2006?

[Solomon2]

Good points have been made and lets just discuss the outcome of such a conflict without unrelated political drama.

Without external political support Hezbollah's decline will be perceived merely as a matter of time by Lebanese of all stripes. The captive Shi'a will look for an opportunity to break away. The Lebanese government will then seek an opportunity to impose UNSCR 1559 to disarm Hezbollah, allying the Lebanese Army with the Chapter Six U.N. force Israel negotiated into place for that purpose as a condition for ending the 2006 war.

After that the Lebanese will probably choose to engage in the material pursuits they so excelled at before the civil war compelled them to stop. Alone among Arab countries Lebanon's Jews will be invited to and encouraged - maybe even bribed - to return, if only to help maintain the fictitious political balance. And relations between Lebanon and Israel will either be good or at least return to the level of the 1950s, when the Lebanese-Israeli border scarcely needed to be defended at all.

The only loser in this scenario are the Palestinian Arabs of Lebanon. Because there is no conceivable scenario under which they could "win" anything in such a conflict.

 

[Zarvan]

I don't know what will happen in the war but Hezbollah is far well equipped than ever before

 

[Syrian Lion]

@Hazzy997
you are missing a very important point... Israel is already in war with Hezbollah... Israel and the west are creating all this chaos in Syria to break the resistance line... however Syria and Hezbollah didn't fall into the western trap.. Hezbollah could have easily made Lebanon into a civil war now because of North Lebanon.. Hezbollah is smart enough to know, that Israel is trying to weaken Lebanon and Hezbollah... now Israel is being served with golden plate from the west and their puppets by destroying the resistance line..

 

[Solomon2]

@Hazzy997
you are missing a very important point... Israel is already in war with Hezbollah... Israel and the west are creating all this chaos in Syria to break the resistance line... however Syria and Hezbollah didn't fall into the western trap.. Hezbollah could have easily made Lebanon into a civil war now because of North Lebanon..

So if it wasn't for the Syria war Hezbo would have been battling for influence in the north, and that's going to be it's goal afterwards, too? The Saudis will go nuts and I'm not sure the Alawites will fully apporve Hezbo operations so close to their ancestral core, either.

 

[Syrian Lion]

So if it wasn't for the Syria war Hezbo would have been battling for influence in the north, and that's going to be it's goal afterwards, too? The Saudis will go nuts and I'm not sure the Alawites will fully apporve Hezbo operations so close to their ancestral core, either.

what I was saying that Hezbollah could have responded to the provocative acts in the north... but Hezbollah ignored it...

 

[Wright]

Iranian influence is already waning in the Arab world. The GCC are taking care of that. Without Iran there is no Hezbollah.

 

[SOHEIL]

Iranian influence is already waning in the Arab world. The GCC are taking care of that. Without Iran there is no Hezbollah.

PGCC !!! fat coward

 

[Fireurimagination]

Hezbollah will fire rockets in to Israel and kill couple of Israeli citizens/soldiers, in response Israel will flatten half of Lebanon..rinse and repeat

 

[spiderkiller]

Hezbollah will fire rockets in to Israel and kill couple of Israeli citizens/soldiers, in response Israel will flatten half of Lebanon..rinse and repeat

funny comparison. israel is a country with full military support of US and economy help of Europe but hezbollah is only a group of ordinary people that are armed. you expect hezbollah to conquer israel ? there was a time when people used their brains but now i don't think so.

 

[asad71]

1. Hezbollah has had a well thought out start, though humble. The ideology was totally for pursuing Islamic objectives. It stated in it's constitution that they belonged to the Ummah linked to the Muslims of the whole world. They were linked by the solid doctrinal and religious connection of Islam, whose message Allah SWT wanted to be fulfilled by the Seal of the Prophets, Prophet Muhammad pbuh. Their culture, it says, is based on the Holy Quran, the Sunna and the legal rulings of the Fiqh.

2. Hezbollah never hid the fact that it drew inspiration from Ayatollah Ruhullah Khomeini. At present the Iranian Supreme Leader is looked upon its god-head. It is a Shiaite organization but all Muslims more or less accept and applaud them for their work.

3. Hezbollah is a dynamic well-oiled organization. Hassan Nasrullah is an extraordinary man born and brought up in fire and battle. His troops are perhaps the best trained, most motivated and disciplined among all the special forces of the world.

4. Nasrullah is always planning to remain one step ahead of the enemy. While he has armed himself with large stockpiles of rockets / missiles capable of reaching all of Israel, he has already shown his capability to strike at Israeli targets abroad. Hezbollah has already proved that the Israelis are neither invincible or brave. In fact, he says, the Jews are cowards; and advises his followers not to get brain-washed by the Zioinist media stating otherwise.

5. As such:

1. Will Hezbollah change its strategy? Yes, it's always changing to remain a step ahead.

2. What will this strategy be in your opinion? We will have to see this.

3. What would their goals be? Goals remain as stated by Iran: complete annihilation of Israel.

4. How long can they sustain a new war? As long as it takes.

5. What do they know needs to be different since Israel may also find a different approach/strategy? Hezbollah also has good Intel over Israel. They must be adjusing accordingly.

 

[500]

Back on topic...lets try to keep within the thread requirements here, and I'm not referring to you, Feyen. But maybe 500 could offer military situation analysis regarding her country. But she didn't answer the question. That being said. Good points have been made and lets just discuss the outcome of such a conflict without unrelated political drama.

Sorry I'm male. As for analysis.

Hezbollah cant do much but only fire rockets. They dont have any offensive capability.

The main difference from 2006 is that Hezbollah will fire Fatah-110 rockets that can reach Tel Aviv and cause massive casualties. As result Israeli air strikes will be much stronger than in 2006 as well.

What happened in 2006 that Israel had not real strategy what to do. First weeks small ground forces were entered and only in very last days of 33 day campaign 4 divisions were used.

This time situation will be different. No more small force incursions. Israel will gather some 6 divisions and they will attack altogether after about a week of air campaign. Time is also needed to evacuate civilian population from south Lebanon.

In first day Israeli forces will reach Litany river, bypassing towns. Then siege of towns will begin with massive use of artillery. Ground campaign will last for another week.

Here my overall estimates:

2-3 weeks war length (half air campaign and half ground).
Hezbollah casualties - 1000-1500 killed.
IDF casualties - 200 killed.
Lebanese civilian casualties - 1000 killed.
Israeli civilian casualties - 100 killed
South Lebanon will be nearly all flattened, Baalbek and South Beirut - very heavy damage.
Damage to buildings in Israel will be minor, but still billions loses to economy.

 

[Abu Hashem]

Before 2006 Hezbollah was firing rockets at Israel, now hezbollah is stopping others from firing rockets at Israel. Great victory, wish you more like this


Your beloved Nasrallah is sitting in bunker since 2006. And seems he will keep sitting there for a looong time.

In refutation to all the lies, opinions, and non factual information you gave I have here your your Brigadier General Yossi Baidatz telling Haaretz-

"Syria and Iran carry out weapons transfers on a constant and structured basis in way that can't be described as simple smuggling – the transfers are official and well-organized," he said.

He added: "Hezbollah's long-range rockets allow them to position launchers deep within Lebanese territory and cover ranges far greater than we aware of in the past.

The militant group was far stronger today than in 2006, when it fought a war with Israel, Baidatz said.

"Hezbollah in 2010 is very different to Hezbollah in 2006 in terms of military capability, which has advanced a great deal," he said.


So from what I see here your own defense officials have noted that Hezbollah is far more than it was, indicating that the
"recovery" you spoke of was nonsense.

Your 'country' didn't win the 2006 war in even the REMOTEST OF WAYS. They were beaten back repeatedly and didn't achieve a single goal.

What kind of an attacker, attacks a country, than 34 days later has the UN draft a resolution for an attack they commenced? Cowards, this happened after the Israeli Ground Invasion was beat back viciously.

Israel accomplished nothing but killing 1500 Lebanese and 400 Hezbollah who died in happiness and at peace. While Zionist soldiers could be heard screaming, yelling for life in every video I have ever seen of combat.

Before you fire back with the fanaticism rooted in your belly look up and do research about the failed attacks on Tyre, Maroon Al Ras, and The Operation Change of Direction 11 all of which were miserable failure by Israeli 'Special Forces'.

I advise you not to use Israeli sources as it has already been discovered that they lied to their superiors about the Failures of Operation Change of Direction 11.

2 Million Israelis fled the north and hid in the south and you want to PRETEND for one second your people are 'BRAVE'??

Sorry I'm male. As for analysis.

Hezbollah cant do much but only fire rockets. They dont have any offensive capability.

The main difference from 2006 is that Hezbollah will fire Fatah-110 rockets that can reach Tel Aviv and cause massive casualties. As result Israeli air strikes will be much stronger than in 2006 as well.

What happened in 2006 that Israel had not real strategy what to do. First weeks small ground forces were entered and only in very last days of 33 day campaign 4 divisions were used.

This time situation will be different. No more small force incursions. Israel will gather some 6 divisions and they will attack altogether after about a week of air campaign. Time is also needed to evacuate civilian population from south Lebanon.

In first day Israeli forces will reach Litany river, bypassing towns. Then siege of towns will begin with massive use of artillery. Ground campaign will last for another week.

Here my overall estimates:

2-3 weeks war length (half air campaign and half ground).
Hezbollah casualties - 1000-1500 killed.
IDF casualties - 200 killed.
Lebanese civilian casualties - 1000 killed.
Israeli civilian casualties - 100 killed
South Lebanon will be nearly all flattened, Baalbek and South Beirut - very heavy damage.
Damage to buildings in Israel will be minor, but still billions loses to economy.

hahahahahahahaha

 

[Abu Hashem]

Hezbollah will fire rockets in to Israel and kill couple of Israeli citizens/soldiers, in response Israel will flatten half of Lebanon..rinse and repeat

It takes a coward to know a cowards tactics.

 

[500]

/\/\/\/\

1) From 2000-2006 Israel was fighting against Palestinian terror, while Hezbollah prepared to the war, digging bunkers and equipping modern anti tank missiles and making small provocations.
2) In 2006 Hezbollah attacked Israel what sparked a war.
3) During the war 120 Israeli soldiers and 500-600 hezbolloons were killed. This happened despite Hezbollah was prepared and IDF caught by surprise.
4) As result Hezbollah afraid to fire a bullet towards Israel since then. All they can do is cry victory while hiding in bunker and tell stories about brave hezballoons and coward Israelis.

 

[Abu Hashem]

/\/\/\/\

1) From 2000-2006 Israel was fighting against Palestinian terror, while Hezbollah prepared to the war, digging bunkers and equipping modern anti tank missiles and making small provocations.
2) In 2006 Hezbollah attacked Israel what sparked a war.
3) During the war 120 Israeli soldiers and 500-600 hezbolloons were killed. This happened despite Hezbollah was prepared and IDF caught by surprise.
4) As result Hezbollah afraid to fire a bullet towards Israel since then. All they can do is cry victory while hiding in bunker and tell stories about brave hezballoons and coward Israelis.

No sources pure fanaticism have you attended University before or are you really just living off US government Handouts?

No Sources. No Proof. NO INTELLIGENCE.

/\/\/\/\

1) From 2000-2006 Israel was fighting against Palestinian terror, while Hezbollah prepared to the war, digging bunkers and equipping modern anti tank missiles and making small provocations.
2) In 2006 Hezbollah attacked Israel what sparked a war.
3) During the war 120 Israeli soldiers and 500-600 hezbolloons were killed. This happened despite Hezbollah was prepared and IDF caught by surprise.
4) As result Hezbollah afraid to fire a bullet towards Israel since then. All they can do is cry victory while hiding in bunker and tell stories about brave hezballoons and coward Israelis.

According to Haaretz.

An Israeli elite unit stumbled into a Nature Reserve near Maroun ar-Ras and suffered heavy casualties. "We didn’t know what hit us," said one of the Maglan soldiers. "In seconds we had two dead." "We expected a tent and three Kalashnikovs — that was the intelligence we were given. Instead, we found a hydraulic steel door leading to a well-equipped network of tunnels."
After the battle of Maroun ar-Ras, the head of IDF Northern Command Maj.-Gen. Udi Adam forbade any further attacks on Nature Reserves. "A nature reserve can swallow an entire battalion," he said. According to Haaretz "[t]hroughout the war the General Staff and the Northern Command restricted offensive operations into these areas, following the initial encounter…[at] the "nature reserve" code-named Shaked near the town of Maroun al-Ras."