What's new

Watching Ukraine burn through ammo fighting Russia has the US Army rethinking how much it really needs for when war breaks out

The denazification crap, was just that CRAP

The Ukrainians were targeting ethnic Russians and the Russians responded

Ukraine is barely a functioning country now,, it's lost a lot of men, lots of resources and the Russians within a few years will ensure Ukraine is a rump state

The thing is, that did not explain the Russian losses.

If their goal is just to liberate Donbas like you claim, then number 1, they are still a bit before they can achieve that. and number 2. the way to achieve that is not proportional to the goal, the Russian lost 300,000 troop dead and wounded for a small scale operation like liberation of Donbas and instead of fighting a concentrated war, they fought a diverse war with a frontline more than 1200 km.

Ukraine is ruined, yes, but then it does not taken the fact that if this war stop tomorrow, and even if the frontline stay where it was, Ukraine still have control to the sea, and Ukraine still have control of 82--83% of their land, and Russia is left to deal with the aftermath by itself, while the sanction may not ever lifted until they give up Donbas, which mean whatever you are seeing in Russia now is going to be the Russia in the future.

Ukraine? Well, the west will rebuild them, and they still have control of most of their land, and only lost one port (that's Mariupol) and after the rebuilding, they will get back to at least 90% of what they used to be.

In a way, Russian had already lost, because if push comes to shove, Ukraine really do give up Donbas in bid of NATO membership, they are going to be accepted (there are no way NATO will let Ukraine go after transferring that many equipment only for them to go back to Russian camp or worse went to Chinese camp) What Russia is going to do when Ukraine being a part of NATO? And that's going to be the way, THE ONLY WAY, to solve this problem it just how long Ukraine realise this is the only way is the matter of question here.

OK, I surely want that war to last forever, which benefits China a lot. it take a lot of pressure off of us and opens lots of opportunities for businesses and trade. But this is my personal opinion. happy to see we see it eye to eye on it though.
I mean, as long as you happy, as they said, it does not have to be real, right? I mean, as they say, Ignorant is a bliss
 
Ukraine wins by staying independent as a sovereign nation, even losing Donbas (which they still hadn't) as long as a country name Ukraine exist, they won.

Russia wins by conquering the entire Ukraine or as per their term "Denazify and Demilitarize" Ukraine

638 days later, Ukraine is probably 10 times more Militarize than it was on Day 1, and Zelenskyy position went from 48% to over 80% in Ukraine, so you tell me the chance of Russia "Winning" this war?
Ukraine measure its success by kicking Russia out of Crimea. Not going to happen. Russia is satisfied with a stalemate. The fronts are not moving. Time to negotiate.
 
Ukraine measure its success by kicking Russia out of Crimea. Not going to happen. Russia is satisfied with a stalemate. The fronts are not moving. Time to negotiate.
Dude, Ukraine loss Crimea back in 2014. Crimea is not the yard stick of success.

And there are no negotiate because that mean Ukraine will join NATO with or without Donbas, Russia don't have enough sway to have Ukraine drop the NATO bid and NATO have too much to lose to let Ukraine go, we don't just transfer Ukraine with Javelin and Starstreak anymore, if Ukraine went to China with all the HIMARS and Cruise missile and Tanks that would be a serious setback for NATO and they know it. That mean if tomorrow when Ukraine say "I am happy to drop Donbas and/Crimea in order to exchange for NATO membership" they will jump on that bus like there are no other.

And ask yourself this, what Russia is going to do when Ukraine, even at the current form, joins NATO?

The problem is not Russia losing Ukraine to NATO, the problem is Russian prestige is gone, now what they are going to do with country like Georgia and even Moldova wanted or renew their interest in NATO membership? Are Russia going to invade again and have the same thing go thru what they go thru in Ukraine again? I mean they aren't at all "successful" by any mean in their adventure in Ukraine, them losing the hold in East Europe and Central Asia is the issue here, not whether or not they control Ukraine
 
Last edited:
Dude, Ukraine loss Crimea back in 2014. Crimea is not the yard stick of success.

And there are no negotiate because that mean Ukraine will join NATO with or without Donbas, Russia don't have enough sway to have Ukraine drop the NATO bid and NATO have too much to lose to let Ukraine go, we don't just transfer Ukraine with Javelin and Starstreak anymore, if Ukraine went to China with all the HIMARS and Cruise missile and Tanks that would be a serious setback for NATO and they know it. That mean if tomorrow when Ukraine say "I am happy to drop Donbas and/Crimea in order to exchange for NATO membership" they will jump on the bus like there are no other.

And ask yourself this, what Russia is going to do when Ukraine, even at the current form, joins NATO?
Too much conjectures in your statement. The west won’t want to fight Russia so Ukraine will never be part of NATO. If there are any possibility, Ukraine would have joined by now. And this is impossible because it’s a Russia redline that Russia will use nuke and start WWIII. Trust me, US would not treat Ukraine entry to nato as a reason to start WWIII.

It’s time to wrap the war in Ukraine. The biggest beneficiary for this war is China as now, Russia is decidedly on China’s side. Another beneficiary is the military industrial complex as they fought the Russia to the last Ukrainia while ripping off the American people. Now, the Ukrainian population getting depleted, it’s time to end the show. Move on to Middle East.
 
Well, incidentally you also dump money in


View attachment 1031855

dude, 1.48 billion a day? You do know this war is 638 days, which mean you dump approximate 10 times more money in Russian economy already than US to Ukraine. In return of what?

Well, I hope you like Potato and Vodka, or maybe Russian women? But trust me, you really should stay away from them
That £1.5bn figure is the maximum it does not mean they are trading that amount every day. Also the ruble isnt worthless as russia has $1.5trn worth of hydrocarbons, gold, diamonds, copper, and iron ore reserves. This is what we call hard currency.

IMO this conflict has benefited China immensely, they will take strategic and military lessons from the way the war went with Nato involved, crucially Russia has more or less become a client state and a friendly one.

Russia still has teeth even with the scales of losses they have had so the west which is divided on China cannot exclusively look east.
 
That £1.5bn figure is the maximum it does not mean they are trading that amount every day. Also the ruble isnt worthless as russia has $1.5trn worth of hydrocarbons, gold, diamonds, copper, and iron ore reserves. This is what we call hard currency.

IMO this conflict has benefited China immensely, they will take strategic and military lessons from the way the war went with Nato involved, crucially Russia has more or less become a client state and a friendly one.

Russia still has teeth even with the scales of losses they have had so the west which is divided on China cannot exclusively look east.
We always know this from day one, but it's kind of not nice and moral to openly admit it.

 
Too much conjectures in your statement. The west won’t want to fight Russia so Ukraine will never be part of NATO. If there are any possibility, Ukraine would have joined by now. And this is impossible because it’s a Russia redline that Russia will use nuke and start WWIII. Trust me, US would not treat Ukraine entry to nato as a reason to start WWIII.

It’s time to wrap the war in Ukraine. The biggest beneficiary for this war is China as now, Russia is decidedly on China’s side. Another beneficiary is the military industrial complex as they fought the Russia to the last Ukrainia while ripping off the American people. Now, the Ukrainian population getting depleted, it’s time to end the show. Move on to Middle East.
lol, do you REALLY think NATO is okay with Ukraine to go back to Russia or worse, go to China with all the Storm Shadow, HARM missile, Leo2, Abrams, Challenger, HIMARS, Caeser and numerous NATO highly sensitive article, in fact, other than war ship, what else had NATO not provided Ukraine? I mean we are even on the edge of transferring F-16 to Ukraine, and you think sure, go ahead, getting all these stuffs and went to China for Protection?? Worse, what if Ukraine goes to China or go back to Russia with the NATO playbook that I am pretty sure NATO has already given them? Are you suggesting not letting Ukraine join NATO and change the entire NATO doctrine if and when Ukraine turn back against NATO?

If you ask me would there is a Probability NATO don't want Ukraine to join? Sure, why not, nothing is certain, but it WOULD BE EXTREMELY STUPID to let Ukraine roam outside NATO circle after we gave them virtually all of what NATO have.

If Russia want to use nuke and want to start WW3, they would have already done so when the war is not going too well for them, the issue with Russia is not Ukraine joining NATO, again, so it's not okay for Ukraine to join NATO but completely ok to open another 1200 KM front with Finland joining? And Finland border is closer to Moscow than Ukraine, in fact, they don't even need Finland and Ukraine if NATO would have nuke Russia, they can already do it with Latvia, which is right next to Moscow.

The way to end this war is to strike a balance between security of Ukraine and the need for Russia, there are no way Russia can dictate term with the dismal performance in 2023, so if there are any talks of negotiation this is not going to be favorable toward Russia. On the other hand, as I suggested, it's the prestige that was being hurt for Russia, as I said before, what if Moldova or Georgia want to renew their bid on NATO membership now? Russia can't do anything and this war didn't really go the way they want, you have to be extremely naive to look at the war in Ukraine in a Russian perspective and think "This is what I want a war to look like" Which mean there are pretty much nothing the Russia can do other than asking China to deal with that, if Moldova and Georgia or any Central Asian country want to leave Russian sphere of influence.
 
I do wonder what the US thinking is, they would have known the overtures they were making to Ukraine will likely lead to Russian military intervention, Crimea Georgia were strong examples. This has led to the emergence of a multi polar alignment. Same with Iraq, Syria, Yemen all these countries due to US intervention have become closer to Iran.

It's like the chess moves being made are either not well thought out or this is what they want.
 
That £1.5bn figure is the maximum it does not mean they are trading that amount every day. Also the ruble isnt worthless as russia has $1.5trn worth of hydrocarbons, gold, diamonds, copper, and iron ore reserves. This is what we call hard currency.

That's depends on how you look at it, whether Russia want to max that out? Or China want to keep the focus, fact remain, that's 1.48 billion cap daily, means it can go up to 1.48 billions, otherwise the Chinese would not be allowing that figure

And 1.5 trillion is not a lot, you are talking about approximately 3 years worth of Russian treasure, and the war is coming close to 2. what next?

IMO this conflict has benefited China immensely, they will take strategic and military lessons from the way the war went with Nato involved, crucially Russia has more or less become a client state and a friendly one.

No doubt, but then that does not mean China does not have to pay the price, the price the Chinese need to pay is now bascially put Russia under its protectorate. If they want Russia to be a client state, then the Chinese will need to basically shoulder Russian economy. It's very much like North Korea. But instead of a negligable economy and population. You are talking about 150 million people and a medium size economy.

Russia still has teeth even with the scales of losses they have had so the west which is divided on China cannot exclusively look east.

The issue here is this war does not just evoke the fear in US that Russia is not down and out. EU scare shitless on this more than pretty much everyone else. Which prompt the EU to get back to war mode and that's why we are seeing all the right/far right being on the win against center left in most of Europe.

Result is EU is going to step up to protect their backyard and that leave US free to move troop and ship in the Pacific. At the current level, there are 4 fleet in Europe AOR only 2 in the Pacific AOR. you are talking about a Joint US-Japan fleet and joint US-Australia fleet in the Pacific AOR that will bump the Naval present in the Pacific to 4. And even US-JMSDF alone is already an issue for China, you are talking about 2 fleet carrier and 4 light carrier, around 50 destroyer, 4 to 6 cruiser and around 40 sub, that's roughly what China had in its entire inventory, now what if US increase present in the Asia? I am pretty sure that is not what China wanted.

I do wonder what the US thinking is, they would have known the overtures they were making to Ukraine will likely lead to Russian military intervention, Crimea Georgia were strong examples. This has led to the emergence of a multi polar alignment. Same with Iraq, Syria, Yemen all these countries due to US intervention have become closer to Iran.

It's like the chess moves being made are either not well thought out or this is what they want.
First of all, US was not even keen to help out at the early stage of Russian-Ukrainian war. remember they want Zelenskyy out, not wanting to send stuff for him to fight the Russian.

The issue here is, they have no choice, becuase Ukraine was attacked and that damage the "good ol' boys club" if NATO did not do something. Think of it like a organise crime, each area is separated by different gang, with one gang want to do be close to some gang and the other gang invaded their territories for that, you will need to fight back, otherwise you may as well ceded your territories and let that gang grow. That's what happened to Ukraine.

US have to help because that changes the dynamic and meanwhile is a good opportunity to revive NATO, it would have to be stupid not to get involved.
 
Last edited:
lol, do you REALLY think NATO is okay with Ukraine to go back to Russia or worse, go to China with all the Storm Shadow, HARM missile, Leo2, Abrams, Challenger, HIMARS, Caeser and numerous NATO highly sensitive article, in fact, other than war ship, what else had NATO not provided Ukraine? I mean we are even on the edge of transferring F-16 to Ukraine, and you think sure, go ahead, getting all these stuffs and went to China for Protection?? Worse, what if Ukraine goes to China or go back to Russia with the NATO playbook that I am pretty sure NATO has already given them? Are you suggesting not letting Ukraine join NATO and change the entire NATO doctrine if and when Ukraine turn back against NATO?

If you ask me would there is a Probability NATO don't want Ukraine to join? Sure, why not, nothing is certain, but it WOULD BE EXTREMELY STUPID to let Ukraine roam outside NATO circle after we gave them virtually all of what NATO have.

If Russia want to use nuke and want to start WW3, they would have already done so when the war is not going too well for them, the issue with Russia is not Ukraine joining NATO, again, so it's not okay for Ukraine to join NATO but completely ok to open another 1200 KM front with Finland joining? And Finland border is closer to Moscow than Ukraine, in fact, they don't even need Finland and Ukraine if NATO would have nuke Russia, they can already do it with Latvia, which is right next to Moscow.

The way to end this war is to strike a balance between security of Ukraine and the need for Russia, there are no way Russia can dictate term with the dismal performance in 2023, so if there are any talks of negotiation this is not going to be favorable toward Russia. On the other hand, as I suggested, it's the prestige that was being hurt for Russia, as I said before, what if Moldova or Georgia want to renew their bid on NATO membership now? Russia can't do anything and this war didn't really go the way they want, you have to be extremely naive to look at the war in Ukraine in a Russian perspective and think "This is what I want a war to look like" Which mean there are pretty much nothing the Russia can do other than asking China to deal with that, if Moldova and Georgia or any Central Asian country want to leave Russian sphere of influence.

Again, Ukraine is a red line for Russia using nukes . It’s part of the Russia/Slavic nation. As matter of fact, Ukraine have been part of Russia longer in it’s history than being independent. A Ukraine in nato is like part of Russia in NATO. Average Russians will want Russia to go nuclear. Would an average American or European care? Do not underestimate the sentiment of the people on their red lines. Where as Finland, baltics were independent from Russia a big part of History. Average Russians do not care as much.

As such, Ukraine will never be part of nato or the world will end, literally. That’s why the west repeatedly insist Ukraine will never join nato. Only neocons like you propose unrealistic scenarios. Also, the west has lost credibility when we move nato eastward after promise not to do so. Finally, America should focus on America first. It’s time to dissolve NATO and focus on America. Read up on Thomas Jefferson’s farewell speech about not engaged in entangling alliances.

"peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations—entangling alliances with none."
 
Again, Ukraine is a red line for Russia using nukes . It’s part of the Russia/Slavic nation. As matter of fact, Ukraine have been part of Russia longer in it’s history than being independent. A Ukraine in nato is like part of Russia in NATO. Average Russians will want Russia to go nuclear. Would an average American or European care? Do not underestimate the sentiment of the people on their red lines. Where as Finland, baltics were independent from Russia a big part of History. Average Russians do not care as much.

And again, if they were to use nuke, they had already there, I mean you are saying they can't afford to lose Ukraine, the fact is, THEY AREALDY DID. Even if I concede the Ukraine will never join NATO, they are NOT going back to Russian camp, probably in 2 or 3 generation (so about 200 years?)

That part is no doubt, that is not a conjecture, and that is not an opinion, that's fact, otherwise you don't have this war to begin with. And thinking that Ukraine will some how get back to Russia in near or not so distant term is more or less wishful thinking, even Ukraine claim they are going to be neutral, do you trust it? when there are a large contingent of Western politician and western advisor in Ukraine, isn't that why Russia start the war to begin with?

And Ukraine had been part of Russi longer than it had been independent is just plainly wrong in the sense of history, I would suggest you stay out of topic that you have no idea instead of parroting people perspective.

The fact that the root of Ukraine can be trace back to Yamnaya Culture which dated back to 3000BC +


And Russian only come after East Slavs which is < 800AD


That alone should tell you Ukraine is part of something else for a long time before the term "Russia" even materialised



As such, Ukraine will never be part of nato or the world will end, literally. That’s why the west repeatedly insist Ukraine will never join nato. Only neocons like you propose unrealistic scenarios. Also, the west has lost credibility when we move nato eastward after promise not to do so. Finally, America should focus on America first. It’s time to dissolve NATO and focus on America. Read up on Thomas Jefferson’s farewell speech about not engaged in entangling alliances.

lol, the west repeatedly resist Ukraine joining NATO is because they don't want to piss off Russia and not willing to get deeper in case of Russia delineate from Europe, guess what? Russia is already pissed, and by the way, that is also the reason why Ukraine refrain from jumping off from the line in Donbas, they don't want to start a war if and when they don't need to, but again, guess what? Russia took that choice from them.

And it's pretty dumb to talk about "dissolving" NATO now when it needed NATO more than ever, at least people in the west didn't see it that way, especially you are saying that Russian mean, nay, threaten if Ukraine join NATO and that mean World War 3 and you still say we should dissolve NATO and let Russia run amok, sure, it make sense, well, I mean you are free to of course believe what you want to believe, that does not mean what you believe is going to be right or even reasonable to begin with.

Again, NATO had never promised not to move east, and that's not coming from me, that come from the Russian who negotiate with NATO named Gorbachev


1700755359661.png


Now, I don't know what had NATO promised or not promised to Mikhai Gorbachev when they discussed East Germany, but seems like Mr Gorbachev does not think NATO expansion was discussed at all.
 
Last edited:
And again, if they were to use nuke, they had already there, I mean you are saying they can't afford to lose Ukraine, the fact is, THEY AREALDY DID. Even if I concede the Ukraine will never join NATO, they are NOT going back to Russian camp, probably in 2 or 3 generation (so about 200 years?)

That part is no doubt, that is not a conjecture, and that is not an opinion, that's fact, otherwise you don't have this war to begin with. And thinking that Ukraine will some how get back to Russia in near or not so distant term is more or less wishful thinking, even Ukraine claim they are going to be neutral, do you trust it? when there are a large contingent of Western politician and western advisor in Ukraine, isn't that why Russia start the war to begin with?

And Ukraine had been part of Russi longer than it had been independent is just plainly wrong in the sense of history, I would suggest you stay out of topic that you have no idea instead of parroting people prespective.





lol, the west repeatedly resist Ukraine joining NATO is because they don't want to piss off Russia and not willing to get deeper in case of Russia delineate from Europe, guess what? Russia is already pissed, and by the way, that is also the reason why Ukraine refrain from jumping off from the line in Donbas, they don't want to start a war if and when they don't need to, but again, guess what? Russia took that choice from them.

And it's pretty dumb to talk about "dissolving" NATO now when it needed NATO more than ever, at least people in the west didn't see it that way, especially you are saying that Russian mean, nay, threaten if Ukraine join NATO and that mean World War 3 and you still say we should dissolve NATO and let Russia run amok, sure, it make sense, well, I mean you are free to of course believe what you want to believe, that does not mean what you believe is going to be right or even reasonable to begin with.

Again, NATO had never promised not to move east, and that's not coming from me, that come from the Russian who negotiate with NATO named Gorbachev


View attachment 1031884

Now, I don't know what had NATO promised or not promised to Mikhai Gorbachev when they discussed East Germany, but seems like Mr Gorbachev does not think NATO expansion was discussed at all.
The situation in Ukraine is because of CIA meddling in 2014 and overthrew a democratically elected president. The west had been trying to disable Russia since then and 2014 gave them an opportunity. Since then, the Washington deep state has engage in disinformation campaigns and saboteur in Eastern Europe to create chaos. This is as clear as day to everyone.

As for Russia using nukes, why would they as they have what they want. They are ready to negotiation. It’s the west that is preventing Ukraine from negotiating with Russia. But now, that’s changing.

Let me ask you, are you one of those guys believe that Russia blow up their own nordstream pipeline?
 
The situation in Ukraine is because of CIA meddling in 2014 and overthrew a democratically elected president. The west had been trying to disable Russia since then and 2014 gave them an opportunity. Since then, the Washington deep state has engage in disinformation campaigns and saboteur in Eastern Europe to create chaos. This is as clear as day to everyone.

First of all, Ukraine reproachment to the west does not started back in 2014, given the fact that they lodge their first NATO membership bid in 2008, you can at least trace it back that far.

In realty, if you know Ukrainian politics, you will know even as far back as EDIT:: IT was 99 when Kuchma was president of Ukraine, he already started the Westward Approach, right up until Yushchenko dioxin poisoning, most likely by Kremlin, for trying to bring EU into Ukrainian parliament.


I mean, again, you are free to believe whatever you believe, but if you do not really know what you are talking about, maybe it's best to keep it to yourself?
.
As for Russia using nukes, why would they as they have what they want. They are ready to negotiation. It’s the west that is preventing Ukraine from negotiating with Russia. But now, that’s changing.

Let me ask you, are you one of those guys believe that Russia blow up their own nordstream pipeline?
They have what they wanted? Are you for real? So you are saying after 300,000 dead and wounded, and about 12000 tank and APC destroyed, and have to borrow munition from the like of Iran and North Korea, all they wanted is that 7% in Donbas?

The grand total of Russian advance of the ENTIRE 2023 (from 1-1-2023 to now, 24-11-2023) is 5 km into Bakhmut. That's it, that's the entire year of advance, they have been beaten back from Adviivka twice, beaten back form Vuledar, beaten back from Kupiansk.

Yes, I am pretty sure Russia had all that they wanted LOL............don't quit your day job buddy, whatever it was.

As for Nord stream, I don't know, either side don't have the need to destroy it, the fact is, the west is NOT going to buy Russian gas for a long time, so the need for Nord Stream 2 for both Russia and the West are zero. those are going to be abandoned regardless of whether or not it will be destroyed as long as sanction keep on, the issue here is, whether you believe Ukraine manage to do that back in September last yea, or Russian themselves blow them up and blame Ukraine or the West. That's up to you to decide
 
Last edited:
First of all, if Ukraine "best tanks" are routinely destroyed, the Russia would have been in Kyiv right now, instead of getting stuck on day 10 target like Mykolaiv even Day 1 Target like Kherson has rolled back to Ukraine in the day 638 of this 3 days operation.

Second, NATO out produce North Korea or even China in term of artillery shell production. China at around 900,000-1.2 mil a year, US alone is between 380,000-420,000 a year (28,000-36,000 a month), Canada is somewhere around 50,000, France is close to 100,000 and Germany have the capacity to produce up to 450,000 a year, BAe in the UK have the capacity of 150,000 a year. That is before Major NATO allies such as South Korea, Australia, Japan, and other European non NATO allied (such as Austria, Sweden and so on) and Middle Eastern country put their number in.

The thing is, none of the nation in NATO are at war, which mean they can't send their entire stock to Ukraine. Nobody is that stupid to strip their entire supply for a war they did not fight, the issue here is NATO country would need their supply, and use their own supply, meanwhile supplying both Ukraine and Israeli their ammunition they use.

Germany at one point in WW1, managed to pump 20 millions in 1 month, and it was not just sanctioned, but blockaded.
 
Germany at one point in WW1, managed to pump 20 millions in 1 month, and it was not just sanctioned, but blockaded.
I will say both wartime production and artillery shell back in WW1 is quite different than what we need to produce now.

Even the different between M795 and M107 are heaven and earth. And I am not talking CCF or Buzz round, just normal round.......
 
Back
Top Bottom