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Vietnam Economy Forum

well, we grew up from the ashes, considering our GDP per capita was about 100 USD in the 1980s. no need comparing to China and TW as we have a different economic base.

with the invention of steam engine, England was the first country that became industrialized, not China. nor Japan. before steam engine, all works were done by manual labor. in short: primitive.

if Vietnam under the rule of the Le was primitive, how could we defeat the Ming dynasty, annihilating the chinese invasion army, back then, a economic and military superpower in East Asia? how could we have subjugated the Kingdom of Champa, ending the hundred of years hegemony of the Khmer Kingdom, the Kingdom of Siam and set our feet on as far as Burma? threatening the stability of the Malay peninsula?

the civil code under the Le gave the women the same rights as the man. well, at least on paper. in practice, the man has more rights. a chinese legacy.

Thank you for feedback.

My mother used to teach Western history in one of the most respected university in Vietnam regarding history, so I read about industrializing in the West since I could read.

I also read many other books on Chinese and Vietnamese histories, and being a revisionist myself, I believe that the industrialization process started sooner in China than in England, or at least at the same time. But my opinion is that China failed to advance, because it did not colonize other countries (the real sense of colonizing and looting, not in the sense of Vietnam colonizing Champa kingdom or China expanding to Tibet), by not doing so, it lacked the motivation to expand production and to innovate, because it lacked the necessary markets, cheap natural resources and cheap capital, which can be got by looting colonies. In the case of Vietnam colonizing Champa kingdom, it did not bring us the market (too small) or natural resources, but instead brought to Vietnam a burden.(to civilize this backward people and turn them into Vietnamese).

Vietnam was possibly one of the the most civilized country on earth under Le Thanh Tong dynasty, (and possibly until late 18th century) regarding its civil code and many other aspects, but it was still a relatively poor country. A poor country can still be very civilized, just like China in early 20th century, and a rich country can still be barbaric and primitive. It is different issues and should be discussed separately.
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Thank you for feedback.

My mother used to teach Western history in one of the most respected university in Vietnam regarding history, so I read about industrializing in the West since I could read.

I also read many other books on Chinese and Vietnamese histories, and being a revisionist myself, I believe that the industrialization process started sooner in China than in England, or at least at the same time. But my opinion is that China failed to advance, because it did not colonize other countries (the real sense of colonizing and looting, not in the sense of Vietnam colonizing Champa kingdom or China expanding to Tibet), by not doing so, it lacked the motivation to expand production and to innovate, because it lacked the necessary markets, cheap natural resources and cheap capital, which can be got by looting colonies. In the case of Vietnam colonizing Champa kingdom, it did not bring us the market (too small) or natural resources, but instead brought to Vietnam a burden.(to civilize this backward people and turn them into Vietnamese).

Vietnam was possibly one of the the most civilized country on earth under Le Thanh Tong dynasty, (and possibly until late 18th century) regarding its civil code and many other aspects, but it was still a relatively poor country. A poor country can still be very civilized, just like China in early 20th century, and a rich country can still be barbaric and primitive. It is different issues and should be discussed separately.
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some remarks.

with few exceptions, such as the zheng he voyage during the Ming, China had been for almost of her history an inward looking country. as middle kingdom, the center of universe, the Chinese had no interests for the outside world. they had their heyday until the British showed them where the power came from: cannon guns from british warships.

as for Champa, frankly speaking after conquering the country, actually we annexted the country, enslaving the populace. they were our arch enemy. Cambodia is a different case, we colonized the country, bringing them civilization. or more precise: Vietnam law and order, plus Chinese civilization. that is the reason why they hate us.

as for Sino-VN relationship, saying it complicated and tense is an understatement.
 
I also read many other books on Chinese and Vietnamese histories, and being a revisionist myself, I believe that the industrialization process started sooner in China than in England, or at least at the same time. But my opinion is that China failed to advance, because it did not colonize other countries (the real sense of colonizing and looting, not in the sense of Vietnam colonizing Champa kingdom or China expanding to Tibet), by not doing so, it lacked the motivation to expand production and to innovate, because it lacked the necessary markets, cheap natural resources and cheap capital, which can be got by looting colonies. In the case of Vietnam colonizing Champa kingdom, it did not bring us the market (too small) or natural resources, but instead brought to Vietnam a burden.(to civilize this backward people and turn them into Vietnamese).

They didn't try because it wasn't politically relevant to them (i.e. The Emperor wasn't interested). Chinese dynasties preferred a tributary network instead of European or Pan-Arabic style colonisation.

This reasoning worked well enough considering the key motivation for Europeans traders to sail beyond Europe was to bypass Arabic tariffs on the Silk Road and connect with Sinae (China) directly. From the Emperor's standpoint, foreign traders came to them.

The Chinese tributary system didn't collapse until the 19th century Opium Wars pushed European foreign policies on China.

Tianxia ("All is equal under heaven") is an intriguing political concept and explains much of China's diplomatic philosophy to this day; and at the risk of drifting into History's twin, Futurology, is proving appealing to certain emerging nations that are more comfortable with Chinese soft power instead of American hard power.

tian_xia_wei_gong_by_liliowy.jpg


@AViet

map-chinese-empire-and-japan-gall-inglis-1871.jpg
 
well, we grew up from the ashes, considering our GDP per capita was about 100 USD in the 1980s. no need comparing to China and TW as we have a different economic base.

with the invention of steam engine, England was the first country that became industrialized, not China. nor Japan. before steam engine, all works were done by manual labor. in short: primitive.

if Vietnam under the rule of the Le was primitive, how could we defeat the Ming dynasty, annihilating the chinese invasion army, back then, a economic and military superpower in East Asia? how could we have subjugated the Kingdom of Champa, ending the hundred of years hegemony of the Khmer Kingdom, the Kingdom of Siam and set our feet on as far as Burma? threatening the stability of the Malay peninsula?

the civil code under the Le gave the women the same rights as the man. well, at least on paper. in practice, the man has more rights. a chinese legacy.
goddamn chinese and their inequalities
 
China, Vietnam to fulfill trade target of $100b in 2016

(Xinhua)Updated: 2016-03-09 10:20


HANOI - The target of $100 billion in the bilateral trade revenue between China and Vietnam is to be reached in 2016, said an official of the Chinese embassy on Tuesday.

Speaking with Chinese and Vietnamese reporters, Hu Suojin, the commercial counselor, said the bilateral trade revenue between China and Vietnam hit $95.8 billion in 2015, a growth of 14.6 percent year-on-year.

Among members in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Vietnam ranked the second in the list of China's major trade partners following Malaysia.

"It is expected that there will be a breakthrough this year in bilateral trade revenue and Vietnam will become the biggest trade partner of China in the ASEAN," Hu said.
 
Vietnam the next Silicon Valley?

Eddie Thai and Binh Tran are the kind of American entrepreneurs you'd expect to meet in Silicon Valley.
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Binh Tran is the co-founder of a successful tech company, Klout, which he sold for $200m (£140m) in 2014. Eddie Thai, the younger of the two, was educated at Harvard and Yale.

But the pair have now decided to focus their attentions, not in the ultra-competitive corner of California that's home to Google, Apple and Facebook, but in Ho Chi Minh City, southern Vietnam.

As partners in US-based venture capital firm, 500 Startups, they think there are more investment opportunities to be found in this rapidly developing country.

"Vietnam in the past 20 years has been one of the fastest growing markets in the world," says Mr Thai.

"Ten years ago, there were only about four million internet users. Now there are more than 40 million. Ten years ago there were virtually no smartphones in use here. Now there are 30 million smartphone users.
"The trajectory is phenomenal."

Mr Tran adds: "If you look at scores for Vietnam in reading, math and science, they actually score higher than countries like the US and the UK. That's the foundation for computer science that's given Vietnam an edge."

Saigon Silicon City
There are some who believe this communist country could even become the next Silicon Valley.
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Aiming to create the world's next Silicon Valley is ambitious. But Mr Hieu, a Vietnamese-American investor and chairman of the project, is a believer.

Late last year, a ceremony was held to turn the first sod on what he hopes will become a technology hub that will attract two dozen companies and $1.5bn worth of investment.

Samsung and Intel already have offices in Ho Chi Minh City at the nearby hi-tech park, attracted by a young, well-educated labour force and generous tax incentives.

Google chief executive Sundar Pichai visited Vietnam in December and, after meeting with Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, announced that the search engine giant would help train about 1,400 local IT engineers.

He said Vietnam would soon become one of Google's most important markets.

"It will easily be in the top 10 countries for many companies and people who are building products. I think you're in the process of that transition," he said.

"The transition is under way; just give it a bit more patience."

Việt Nam and UK to boost trade, investment
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HÀ NỘI Viet Nam News -— Authorities in HCM City said they hope UK enterprises would further investment in local projects, and affirmed that the city would create opportunities and conditions for them to develop business.

Speaking at the meeting with UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond and his entourage in HCM City yesterday, Chairman of the HCM City People’s Committee Nguyễn Thành Phong said the UK ranked 8th in investment out of the 74 countries and territories investing in the city. Among them include many large-scale projects.

He mentioned the 86-storey, $1.2 billion observation tower complex project in the Thủ Thiêm New Urban Area in HCM City as an example of co-operation between businesses on the two sides.

In 2015, two-way bilateral trade between HCM City and the UK reached US$875 million, a 20 per cent increase compared with 2014.

The British Business Group in HCM City had 450 members. This was a dynamic group, and their investment results and trade co-operation made important contributions to the city’s development, Phong said.

Phong also informed the UK diplomat about the city’s development vision to become a big training centre for economics and trade, science and technology, and education in the ASEAN region.

Phong expressed hopes that the UK, which has strengths in education, would help the city train high-quality human resources through co-operation between universities on both sides.

Hammond said he appreciated the development of Việt Nam in general and HCM City in particular, as well as the strategic partnership between the two counties.

He said he had met representatives of UK companies working in HCM City before the meeting. They reported to him that they were optimistic about the future development of Việt Nam, especially HCM City.

In their bilateral relationship, relations in trade and investment are the most important fields right now, said the diplomat.

He said the UK expected to learn more about the city’s development focuses in the future, at which time the two sides could take concrete action.

He said UK businesses would invest more in the future - not only through individual projects, but also through the city’s socioeconomic development plans. — VNS

I also read many other books on Chinese and Vietnamese histories, and being a revisionist myself, I believe that the industrialization process started sooner in China than in England, or at least at the same time.
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Watch this interesting video - it shows China pass oil extracting technology to Americans, and answers your question of industrialization.
 
Apr 26, 2016 @ 11:43 PM
What 'Stark Tower' Tells Us About Vietnam's Economy
Johan Nylander
Contributor

I write about economic and social trends in China. @johannylander


The French colonial buildings have for decades stood as the most symbolic landmarks in Vietnam’s commercial capital, Ho Chi Minh City, previously called Saigon.

Outside the palatial-looking City Hall, tourists are flocking to take selfies next to the statue of communist revolutionary Ho Chi Minh. On the roof of City Hall, a red flag with a golden star waves slowly in the wind.


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The Bitexco Financial Tower, downtown Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. (Justin Mott/Bloomberg)


Now, these buildings and monuments are slowly being overshadowed by new, modern landmarks that are shooting up all across the city. With its 68 floors rising 262 meters above ground, the Bitexco Financial Tower stands out as the city’s tallest building and is housing everything from financial firms to a mall with European luxury brands and a variety of cafés and restaurants.

The building is nicknamed “Stark Tower” due to its resemblance to Tony Stark’s headquarters in the Iron Man and Avengers films.

Just five years ago, it was the country’s tallest building. Next year, it’ll be fourth tallest.

“Soon we won’t be able to see the building because of all new skyscrapers shooting up,” a British businessman jokes as we enjoy the city’s skyline from a roof terrace.

Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist at IHS IHS +0.27% Global Insight, explains that the building boom is a sign on the country’s growing economy.

“Due to the strong performance of the Vietnamese economy in 2015 and continued rapid economic growth forecast over the next decade, foreign and local investors as well as property developers are investing heavily into the real estate market in major Vietnamese commercial hubs, notably Ho Chi Minh city,” he told me in an e-mail.

“With many foreign companies expanding their presence in Vietnam, there is strong growth in demand expected for commercial floorspace in city centers, which is encouraging major new property development.

“The development of major new office buildings in Vietnamese major city centers is a necessary part of economic development and rapid economic growth.”

Last year, Vietnam was one of the fastest growing economies in the Asia-Pacific region, with GDP growth of 6.7%, while manufacturing output was up 9.9%. Foreign direct investment into Vietnam was estimated at $22.8 billion in 2015, up 12.5% compared with 2014, according to IHS.

The economy is forecast to grow at 6.7% in 2016, driven by foreign direct investment, strengthening domestic consumption and pro-growth policies.

However, the building boom comes with a price.

New York Times NYT +0.15% recently reported that colonial architecture is fading from view in Ho Chi Minh City. Many of these building formed the backdrop for “The Quiet American,” the Graham Greene novel set during Vietnam’s war for independence from France in the early 1950s.

“There’s been a lot of destruction, especially in the last five to seven years, I would say, and mainly by these huge, huge, huge developments,” Hoanh Tran, design principal at HTA+Pizzini Architects, told the newspaper.

Rajiv Biswas points out that it is important that city developments in Vietnam are done as part of long-term urban planning, together with heritage conservation of historic buildings.

“This will help to protect Vietnam’s cultural heritage for both the local population and for the fast-growing tourism industry,” he said.

Follow me on Twitter @johannylander
 
Vietnam records trade surplus in Q1
13:27 | 26/4/2016 | 0 Feedback
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Vietnam enjoyed a trade surplus of US$776 million in the first quarter of this year, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Planning Department.
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The country’s export turnover rose 4.1% year-on-year to an estimated US$33.8 billion during the period while its import revenues declined 4.8% to US$37.1 billion.

The foreign-invested sector exported US$27 billion worth of goods, a yearly rise of 5.8% and spent US$22.2 billion on imports, down 5.7%. That resulted in a trade surplus of more than US$4.87 billion.

Meanwhile, the State-owned sector reaped US$10.8 billion from exports, rising 0.3% against the same time last year while slashing out US$14.9 billion on purchasing materials, dropping 3.5% from last year’s corresponding period. Despite the reduction in import turnover, the sector still saw a trade deficit of US$4.1 billion.

In the first three months, agro-forestry-fishery exports were estimated at US$4.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, the department said, adding that exports of industrial goods had signaled a slowdown with 6.5% growth seen in export turnover in the reviewed period, compared with 8.5% reported in same period last year.

In the latest report, the General Statistics Office (GSO) outlined several export staples which experienced with export turnover increases during the three-month period such as mobile phones and components, up 14.2% to US$7.6 billion; textile and garment, up 7.6% to US$5.2 billion; electronic products and parts, up 5.7% to US$3.8 billion and footwear, up 9% to US$2.8 billion.

A rise was also seen in the exports of seafood, rice, fruits and vegetables, GSO noted.

However, due to the impact of global markets, exports of some products declined sharply in this period, with crude oil slipping 52.8% to US$446 million, and steel and iron down 17.7% to US$358 million.

According to GSO, the US, ASEAN and Japan were Vietnam’s three largest export markets from January to March.

Earlier, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said it has undertaken numerous measures to boost exports and reduce imports, helping decrease the trade deficit.

The sector’s 2016 goals were to increase export value by 10% and keep the trade deficit at no more than 5% of the total import-export value.

In order to realize the targets, the ministry has actively worked with relevant ministries and sectors to remove difficulties for exporters and expand markets.

The sector also planned to improve goods quality and establish brand names for agricultural products for export.

Last year, Vietnam ran a trade deficit of US$3.5 billion as the country’s export value topped US$162.1 billion and its imports hit US$165.6 billion, GSO’s statistics revealed./.
 
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Image Credit: Hanoi skyline image via Jimmy Tran / Shutterstock.com
Vietnam's Political Transition: Economic Implications
With the business-friendly PM Nguyen Tan Dung out of office, what’s next for Vietnam’s economy?

By Jack Wagner
April 30, 2016
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The congress of the 13th National Assembly that ended on April 13 brought to a close the rule of Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung after 10 years in power. Dung has been praised for his role in transforming Vietnam into one of the most attractive emerging economies in Asia through a series of sweeping liberalization reforms, including the lifting of restrictions on foreign investment and the negotiation of several trade deals, notably the prospective U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and free-trade agreement with the European Union. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam reached record levels in 2015, rising more than 40 percent in the first three quarters of the year compared to the previous year.

Although Vietnam is still set to enjoy 6.5-7 percent growth and maintain strong rates of FDI, particularly in manufacturing, the rising influence of Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong could usher in a period of more conservative economic reform. Trong and new Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc have both committed to changes required for TPP membership but the pace of reform witnessed in recent years could slow, especially if seen to test particular vested interests in the country. Trong effectively prevented Dung from taking on the secretary general position and consolidated his authority when the National Assembly voted to appoint three of his close allies to the key positions of prime minister, president, and National Assembly chairperson in early April. Though Phuc was a deputy prime minister under Dung, he is perceived to be a more politically neutral technocrat who favors a cautious approach to policy-making.

State company privatization

The ascendance of a more conservative party leadership introduces uncertainty over the future of the reformist agenda. Trong has long been suspected of being at odds over foreign and economic policy with the western-oriented Dung, and is known to be a member of the ideological old-guard of the ruling Communist Party. During a speech in January, he set the tone for the coming term by defending the country’s tight one-party rule and emphasizing the need for balance between democratic aspirations and law and order. Moreover, while the Politburo, the country’s top regulatory body, was expanded in January from 16 to 19 members to accommodate younger, reform-minded members, such as State Bank of Vietnam President Nguyen Van Binh, a strong majority of the members belong to the Communist Party’s conservative wing, including five former generals. Phuc himself, speaking in March, stated that Vietnam would maintain its “socialist-orientated” economy and warned against embracing market reforms too quickly.

Progress in the planned privatization of state-owned enterprises will therefore remain slow under the new administration. In March, Phuc said at the National Assembly that he aims to gradually restructure state-owned enterprises (SOEs,) but cautioned against taking such liberalization steps too quickly amid “risks in international markets”. The program faced delays under the Dung administration amid opposition from vested interests and a lack of will both within the SOEs and in the ruling party; the government sold stakes in 182 SOEs in 2015, failing to meet its target of 289 for the year. Vietnam’s 3,000 SOEs dominate almost all sectors of Vietnam’s economy, including telecoms, shipping, manufacturing, transport and banking. They contribute about one-third of Vietnam’s GDP, and provide the state with significant influence over the economy as well as lucrative postings for political allies or family members.

Investors have been only offered minority stakes in companies and have been deterred by concerns over their large amounts of debt, a lack of transparency, and unclear company valuation after decades of government ownership. For example, telecommunications giant VMS Mobifone has been slated for privatization since 2005, and nonetheless remains state-owned today despite it having the highest profit margin of any Vietnamese SOE. Vietnam Airlines sold only 3.48 percent of its equity in its 2015 IPO, failing to fulfill its planned 25-35 percent privatization. Moreover, most of the 3.48 percent equity sold was purchased by two Vietnamese banks, with no participation by foreign investors. Failure to reform the system could slow prospective growth and wider investment in Vietnam, with private investors long complaining that state entities receive preferential treatment, especially in loan arrangements and land agreements.

Labor union reform

Labor laws and union activity pose another key consideration for investors in Vietnam, and effective reforms could also stall in coming years. All unions in Vietnam are controlled by the state-run Vietnam Confederation of Labor umbrella group. This tight control imposes significant restrictions on collective bargaining which have undermined the arbitration process in labor disputes and led to an upsurge in disruptive wildcat strikes. According to official figures, Vietnam experienced 303 strikes in 2014, though non-official sources claim the country sees nearly 1,000 wildcat strikes per year. The U.S. State Department claims that about 68 percent of strikes in Vietnam target foreign firms, presenting a major business continuity consideration for investors.

The liberalization of Vietnam’s union laws is a fundamental TPP requirement, which the country’s new leaders have pledged to fulfill. However, labor leaders in Vietnam believe such reforms are only likely to be superficially implemented as they threaten to undermine the state’s control on its workforce. One major international law firm’s partner in Hanoi has said to the New York Times that it is likely the requirements will be abided by on paper, but in reality unions will continue to be informally controlled by the confederation. The TPP has no enforcement mechanism for a member state’s commitments to labor or environmental requirements.

President Barack Obama has said that if Vietnam and other countries do not meet the TPP’s requirements, they will face “meaningful consequences.” However, labor activists have warned that as Vietnam is one of the fastest growing economies in the trade deal and the second largest apparel exporter to the United States behind China, there is a high chance such requirements will be overlooked in order to ensure the deal’s implementation. Moreover, the TPP will only be ratified by the United States after the elections in November 2016, meaning Vietnam is unlikely to be pressured into implementing the labor reforms in the coming year.

Outlook

Despite faltering on bolder reforms, Vietnam is still slated to be one of the fastest growing economies in Asia in the coming years. According to the World Bank, the TPP is expected to add a cumulative 8 percent to GDP by 2035, while other economists estimate double-digit growth. Both Trong and Phuc have promised to continue efforts to implement and abide by the terms of the TPP as well as the World Bank’s “Vietnam 2035” plan. Smaller but important reforms to be expected in the coming years include banking sector liberalization to ensure equal access to credit, land, and other resources for foreign investors and operators, reducing the perceived favoritism for state-owned firms. The government is also planning to improve land acquisition procedures and mechanisms to resolve land disputes, which could boost Vietnam’s infrastructure development. Nonetheless, the bolder reforms of SOE privatization and changes to labor laws that were unfulfilled in the Dung era are now less likely to be completed, upholding some commonly cited investor complaints about the Vietnamese market in the year ahead.

Jack Wagner is an Asia analyst at Protection Group International (PGI), a London-based risk management firm. Sign up to the PGI Risk Portal for free geopolitical monitoring and analysis.

@William Hung , @Carlosa ,@BoQ77 , @Viet
 
May 12, 2016 3:00 am JST
Japan manufacturers eye Vietnam as export base
TOKYO -- With the signing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Japanese manufacturers are looking even more favorably on the ASEAN region and especially Vietnam as a base of operations.

Some 43.8% of respondents to a survey by the Mizuho Research Institute cited the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as the region where they plan to devote their greatest efforts moving forward. That is an increase of 2.3 percentage points over the survey conducted last year and the fourth year in a row that ASEAN topped the list.



The think tank conducted the survey in February, targeting Japanese manufacturers capitalized at 10 million yen ($92,000) or more. The institute received valid responses from 1,100 companies.

Increasing interest in Vietnam was clear from the responses. Asked to list the ASEAN countries in which they plan to focus, 53.5% of manufacturers cited Vietnam, up 4.9 percentage points over last year. Thailand, where auto industry growth is slowing, was cited by 59.7% of companies, but that is a dip of 2.2 points from last year. Interest in Indonesia waned 4.7 points to 41.5%.

With the signing of the TPP this February, Vietnam has gained attention as an export base for textiles and other products.

Asked where they plan to expand investments among the 12 signatory nations to the agreement, 12.8% of respondents cited Vietnam, 10.7% cited Japan and 4.9% said the U.S.

Meanwhile, manufacturers continued to pull out of China as the economy there slows. Only 67.4% of manufacturers said they have bases in China, which is a 2-point drop from last year and the second decline in a row.

(Nikkei)
 
Use TPP as booster to renovate the political, union
...
we need the change now

A lot of political reforms. The people that run as government are incompetents and without real education. They solely rely on policemen for power.
 
Although there is still a lot of room to improve, I believe Vietnam has never had such an educated and competent government in history, if you consider the education level of Vietnam. The ratio of people holding higher degrees, like MSc or PhD in total population, for example, is still too low, compared even to Thailand, let alone more developed countries like China or Japan.

And absolute majority of Vietnamese support the government. Do not trust every things on the Internet.
 
Although there is still a lot of room to improve, I believe Vietnam has never had such an educated and competent government in history, if you consider the education level of Vietnam. The ratio of people holding higher degrees, like MSc or PhD in total population, for example, is still too low, compared even to Thailand, let alone more developed countries like China or Japan.

And absolute majority of Vietnamese support the government. Do not trust every things on the Internet.

looking at vietnam is so pathetic comparing to other South East Asian countries.
 

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