Vietnam Economy Forum

[David James]

Best of luck to the Friend Vietnam from India, God bless you

 

[NiceGuy]

Vietnam Has No Plans to Seek IMF Loan to Resolve Bad Debt

Vietnam has no intention to borrow from the International Monetary Fund to resolve bad debt at the country’s lenders, a central bank official said after a parliamentary committee report cited the option this week.
“Vietnam has no reason to seek loans from the IMF” given that the country’s macroeconomic situation is stable, Deputy Governor Le Minh Hung said in comments posted on the government’s website late yesterday. The State Bank of Vietnam hasn’t discussed loans with the IMF, he said.

A Sept. 4 National Assembly economic committee report suggested Vietnam should consider seeking IMF aid to restructure its banks, saying the country risks “prolonged stagnation” if it doesn’t fix its bad debt woes soon, Bloomberg News reported earlier this week. The financial system needs an injection of 250 trillion dong ($12 billion) to 300 trillion dong, according to the 298-page document that included recommendations to address economic threats.
Vietnamese officials and Alfred Schipke, the IMF’s newly appointed mission chief to Vietnam, met this week during a courtesy visit, Hung said. Both the IMF and the government felt Vietnam’s macroeconomic situation has taken positive steps toward stability, Hung said.
“We are not so desperate yet that we would need an imminent rescue loan from the IMF,” Nguyen Duc Kien, deputy head of the committee that published the report, said by phone Sept. 6. “This is just one of the recommendations to the government in case it’s needed.”

Policy Recommendations
Apart from the suggestion for Vietnam to seek an IMF loan to restructure the banking system, which was mentioned in pages 178 and 181 of the report in a section on policy recommendations, the National Assembly committee’s compilation also recommended other funding sources such as selling government bonds with three- to five-year maturities, trimming state spending and drawing funds or investments from foreign companies.
Both the IMF and the Vietnamese government assessed that the country’s macroeconomic situation has improved, especially in terms of its trade balance and current-account balance, Hung said. The balance of payments is in surplus, foreign exchange reserves are rising, and market confidence has strengthened, he said. IMF lending is meant for countries that have temporary difficulties in their balance of payments, he said.

Tycoon’s Arrest
Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung’s government is trying to regain confidence in Vietnam after the arrest of a banking tycoon last month highlighted the frailty of a financial system hobbled by Southeast Asia’s highest bad debt levels. Growth slowed to 4.4 percent in the first half of this year from 8.5 percent in 2007 as lending stagnated, damping state revenue and crimping the country’s ability to rescue banks.
Vietnam’s government needs to solve its banking woes before the situation worsens, Gareth Leather, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, said earlier this week. “Credit has been one of the main drivers of the economy and you’re not going to see growth return to 7 percent to 8 percent so long as banks are stuck with this problem.”
Non-performing loans climbed to 4.47 percent of total lending as of May 31, from 3.07 percent at the end of 2011, according to central bank data. State Bank of Vietnam Governor Nguyen Van Binh said in April that the level of non-performing loans at some lenders may be “much higher” than reported figures, with Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. estimating as much as 20 percent of debts may be bad.

Foreign Funding
The central bank should set up a company to buy bad debt using foreign funding, the parliamentary panel said in this week’s report, which was funded by the United Nations Development Programme. Cross-ownership of banks are at “alarming levels” and lending based on relationships have led to rising non-performing loans and need to be promptly dealt with, according to the report.
The central bank hasn’t officially been presented with the report by the National Assembly and the recommendations are “just the committee’s view” for now, Nghiem Xuan Thanh, chief administrator at the bank, said Sept. 6.
Vietnam had recognized the risks and unveiled plans to prevent a collapse of its banking system months ago. The country said in March it would buy bad debt from lenders as the nation sought to overhaul the industry and cut bad-debt ratios at state-owned banks to below 3 percent by 2015.
The central bank has also said it’s ready to force mergers among weak lenders, and Dung has ordered the monetary authority to “solve” a shortage of funds after the credit crunch forced thousands of companies out of business.
Nguyen Duc Kien, who helped found Asia Commercial Bank, Vietnam’s fourth-biggest lender by market value, was arrested in August, and the central bank said police were investigating violations at three companies managed by Kien after he allegedly “conducted business illegally.” That was followed by the arrest of former Chief Executive Officer Ly Xuan Hai by the police for alleged economic mismanagement.

Vietnam’s stocks plunged, dragging the benchmark index into in a bear market on Aug. 27 on concern the arrests may signal further instability in the nation’s financial system.
Vietnam Has No Plans to Seek IMF Loan to Resolve Bad Debt - Bloomberg

We still have $$$$ to buy more Su-30 from Russia

 

[Rechoice]

It's a map of China's North and South Dynasties when VN does not exist.

440AD

560AD

But ancient map of China, your ancestors here showed and accepted The country of Giao Chi (Jiaoxhi or other name Kochi, Vietnam today) with the Giao Chi Sea.

 

[ahfatzia]

Stay on the topic of Vietnam economy please.

 

[Rechoice]

Promoting Vietnam-Singapore relations
VietNamNet Bridge – Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong’s official visit to Singapore from September 12-14 aims to promote relations between the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) and Singapore’s People’s Action Party (PAP) and lift the relationship between the two countries enjoy to a higher level.

Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong.

VietNamNet

 

[Battle of Bach Dang River]

"no great loss without small gain"

This is an opportunity for Vietnam to reduce the number of loss-making state corporations exclusive right for many years; gradually regain the fairness for private companies who do business more efficiently...

 

[Battle of Bach Dang River]

Vietnam Aims to Restructure Petro Company
September 12, 2012, 8:00 p.m. ET
By NGUYEN PHAM MUOI

HANOI—Vietnam will force state-owned PetroVietnam Oil & Gas to shed money-losing, noncore operations including banking and construction, a major attempt to restructure a sprawling company that has funded a quarter of the government's budget in recent years.

The government said Wednesday that the PetroVietnam Group, as it more widely known, had been deeply involved in money-losing operations that had hurt the core oil and gas business. Financial details weren't disclosed.

PetroVietnam's website said operations had extended into areas such as banking and securities, construction to build public housing, and operating hotels and a taxi firm.

Vietnam's highly charged growth has shown recent signs of strain, and the government announced in July that it wanted to restructure and revive a dozen large state-owned groups that dominate the economy. Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Group, or Vinashin, was broken up in 2011 after piling up debts of more than $4 billion.

PetroVietnam will be restructured to focus on oil and gas exploration and production, petrochemical production, gas development, electricity generation and services for oil and gas operations, the government said.

Vuong Quan Hoang, a Hanoi-based economist with the Centre Emile Bernheim of Université Libre de Bruxelles, said that the breakup was needed because "those noncore activities have caused big losses for the state budget."

The government said PetroVietnam should reconsider its direct involvement in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Venezuela. It didn't elaborate.

A 78%-owned financial affiliate, PetroVietnam Finance Joint Stock Corp., may possibly be spun off as a bank, an executive said.

Vietnam is facing an economic slowdown; its GDP grew 4.38% in the first half of this year, the slowest in three years. Full-year GDP targets have been revised downward from as high as 6.5% to 5.2%.

Vietnam Aims to Restructure Petro Company - WSJ.com

 

[Viet]

More than 46,000 newly-established businesses in eight months
16:33 | 17/09/2012 | cpv.org

In August, the number of businesses registering for new establishment reached more than 6,100 nationwide, a 3.3 percent increase compared to July, with a registered capital of more than VND73 trillion, up 161 percent, according to a report by the Government office.

In the first eight months this year, the nation recorded more than 46,000 newly-established businesses, well above the 35,500 dissolved or suspended businesses. Of the figure, more than 2,000 businesses registered for re-operation.

The development plan for small and medium-sized businesses for the 2011-2015 period approved by the Vietnamese government aims to raise the number of newly-established businesses to 350,000. The plan also sets the target to have 600,000 businesses into operation as of December 31, 2015.

www.cpv.org.vn - More than 46,000 newly-established businesses in eight months

 

[Viet]

US$21.4 billion to build North-South high-speed railway
Updated : 12:27 PM, 18/09/2012 | Voice of Vietnam

(VOV) - Vietnam should early complete the feasibility study into the North-South high-speed railway construction project and submit it to the National Assembly for approval in 2013.

The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) made the proposal at a meeting with the Vietnam Railway Corporation (VRC) in Ho Chi Minh City on September 17.

JICA said Vietnam would rather start building the high-speed railway line, first on two sessions between Hanoi and Vinh (around 300km) and between HCM City and Nha Trang (around 370km) with an average speed of 300km/h at cost of US$21.4 billion.

Judging by the current railway system in Vietnam, JICA proposed increasing the number of trains from 32 to 50 and reducing traveling time from 28 hours to 25.4 hours. Cost for this sub-project is around US$1.8 billion.

US$21.4 billion to build North-South high-speed railway - US$21.4 billion to build North-South high-speed railway - VOVNEWS.VN

 

[djsjs]

(VOV) - Vietnam should early complete the feasibility study into the North-South high-speed railway construction project and submit it to the National Assembly for approval in 2013.

a big project.
why so expensive?it's about 3 times of CRH.

 

[Viet]

a big project.
why so expensive?it's about 3 times of CRH.

Because it will be Japan made technology. As far as I know, unlike Japan, China is reluctantly providing loans and transfering technology to Vietnam. Though VN has asked and encouraged China many times to invest in infrastructure projects.

 

[djsjs]

Because it will be Japan made technology. As far as I know, unlike Japan, China is reluctantly providing loans and transfering technology to Vietnam. Though VN has asked and encouraged China many times to invest in infrastructure projects.

Hanoi to haiphong highway EX - 5
Song Ben 4 hydropower station
Hanoi light rail project
meishan 2500 t/D cement plant project and other 3 cement plant projects
Vietnam railway communication reconstruction project
.............
baidu "中国承建的越南项目", about 827000 related results .
google "中国承建的越南项目", about 212000 related results
so why do you say "Though VN has asked and encouraged China many times to invest in infrastructure projects."
21.4b usd including all the technologies? if so, a big deal!

 

[Viet]

Do you know if China has offered any high-speed railways to Vietnam, including providing loans and technology?



Vietnam pushes for more Chinese investment
By Valarie Tan | Posted: 23 May 2012 2010 hrs

BEIJING: China's investments in the energy and minerals sector in some ASEAN countries have drawn criticism and in some cases, backlash in recent years.

But with investments and demand from Europe and the US dwindling, China's growing economic importance in the region cannot be ignored.

Rising labour costs in China have forced some manufacturing firms to relocate their operations to Vietnam in recent years. But Vietnam wants to be more than just a cheaper alternative to the world's second largest economy.

It held a business forum recently in Beijing to seek Chinese investments. Vietnam's Deputy Foreign Minister, Nguyen Thanh Son, called on Chinese firms to increase their presence.

He said: "Vietnam is working hard now to develop the economy. So there's great demand for facilities. And we know China has great potential in the basics of constructing ports, highways, airports and has many renowned enterprises with huge potential."

There are currently some 2,000 Chinese companies invested in Vietnam, valued at over US$3 billion, with mining and steel amongst the biggest projects.

But China's massive investments in ASEAN countries in recent years have drawn criticism and resistance from some locals. Sceptics view these investments as a way for China to buy up resources and for it to extend its political dominance in the region.

In 2011, Myanmar stopped construction of a Chinese-funded dam on the Irawaddy River worth US$3.6 billion, citing environmental concerns.

Territorial claims over islands in the South China Sea between Beijing and some ASEAN countries continue to draw tension.

In the case of the Philippines, the recent standoff with China over Scarborough Shoal, also known as Huangyan Islands, has spilled over to trade and tourism.

Vietnam, which also claims parts of the South China Sea, and has close military ties with the US in the form of recent naval exercises, could have made China more uncomfortable.

Still, bilateral trade between Beijing and Hanoi reached US$40 billion in 2011 and is expected to grow to US$60 billion by 2015 under a new five-year cooperation deal. Even though Vietnam has often been seen as a low-cost alternative to China for investors, both countries said they see each other as friendly competition for foreign investments.

Ma Mingqiang, Secretary of the ASEAN-China Centre, said: "Don't you think that China is big enough and so is Vietnam? So I don't think there's no room for competition. There's a lot of space for it. Some firms may have left China but there are still many more who stayed. I don't think there will be much impact on second-tier Chinese cities."

And despite the geopolitical friction, trade between ASEAN and China is expected to reach US$500 billion by 2015, making China ASEAN's biggest trading partner.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/economicnews/view/1203143/1/.html

 

[djsjs]

Do you know if China has offered any high-speed railways to Vietnam, including providing loans and technology?

haha.....
越拒绝中国高铁技术的真正原因曝光：中国大跌眼镜！
　　越来越多的国家从中国购买高铁技术或表示有兴趣购买，但越南是个引人注目的例外，它仍坚持执行更为昂贵的日本高铁计划。
　　在香港举行的2010年亚洲高铁会议上，越南铁道部的阮孟轩（音）说，越南正使用日本的新干线技术进行一项耗资550亿美元（1美元约合6.8元人居币——本报注）的高铁计划。
　　他说，拟建设的1570公里长的高速铁路将连接河内和胡志明市，一期工程将在2020年完工。预计2025年全线竣工。
　　相比之下，估计全长1318公里的北京至上海高铁预计耗资2210亿元人民币，最早2012年竣工，距离2008年的开工日期仅仅4年。这表明，与日本技术相比，中国的高铁技术造价大大降低，工期大幅度缩短。
　　尽管如此，越南仍坚持使用日本新干线技术。阮孟轩说：“我们研究过中国的高铁。它并不先进。”他说，日本高铁技术的一个优势是，它运行40年没有发生过事故。
　　独立的交通项目评估机构劳埃德船级社运输部门总经理戴维·希尔说：“中国的高铁相对不成熟。目前尚未有历史数据证明中国的技术水平足够好。”
　　今年6月19日，越南议会否决了高铁计划，但阮盂轩说，这并不意味着这一计划搁浅，而是要求越南铁路部门提供更多数据和更好的融资计划。
　　据《亚洲周刊》报道，一些越南政客反对采纳中国高铁技术是因为担心中国可能利用高铁运输军队并入侵越南。阮孟轩对此回应，河内到昆明的铁路已经将两国联系起来了。自2004年以来，中国投资改善河内到昆明的铁路条件，其长远目的是建立从昆明至新加坡的跨亚洲铁路网。
　　与越南形成鲜明对比的是，澳大利亚非常欢迎中国参与它的高铁建设。澳大利亚政府正在进行一项历时12个月的可行性调查，计划在东部沿海地区修建一条连接悉尼、墨尔本、布里斯班和堪培拉的高速铁路。
　

 

[Viet]

That can be true, that Vietnamese politicians want japanese highspeed trains because of political reason. Personally I think if China offers similar technology with less cost and less building time, why not.

In a worst case, we can still blow up everything.