Vietnam Economy Forum

[ChineseTiger1986]

Hi tiger, long time no see, where have you been lately?

first, "Vietcong" no longer exists and a banned term on defence.pk, so pls don´t use it bro.

second, hell no, VN is not too afraid in selling the SOE, the wave of sales has begun. but no worry, critical companies such as defence, in operating sea and airports are not up to grab.

last, I am not sure, if Chinese government will bail out Vietnam if there is a crisis. what do you think?

VCP is always asking CCP to bail it out, just like they did in 2008.

VCP won't sell it SOE, because it will further enrich the oligarch class and embolden them to overthrow the entire communistic system.

They will only sell 49% of each SOE's share at max.

 

[xiao qi]

VCP is always asking CCP to bail it out, just like they did in 2008.

VCP won't sell it SOE, because it will further enrich the oligarch class and embolden them to overthrow the entire communistic system.

They will only sell 49% of each SOE's share at max.

How abt 2008, I don't know these incidents you said, Can you enlighten me, are you sure VCP required from CPC?

 

[Viva_Viet]

The Vietcong lacks the competence to manage their SOE, and to sell it instead of fixing it, the gap of wealth inequality will become even larger.

CPC is very successful to rejuvenate their SOE, and without the backup of the SOE, China wouldn't come out with so many powerful private enterprises such as Huawei/Tencent/Alibaba/Baidu/Xiaomi/JD etc.

When your SOE and private enterprises are thriving at the same time, and your economy is also blooming, then you are talking about a successful economic reform.

I bet that the Vietcong is too afraid to sell the SOE, since this move will only enrich the pro-West oligarch class, and they will be further emboldened to overthrow the Vietcong. Since there are many traitors in your party who have already become the oligarch class want to overthrow the entire communistic system in order to whitewash their illegal wealth.

In the end, the Vietcong will still beg their big brother from China to bail them out, since the management skill between these two parties is like the difference between a PHD student and an elementary student.

CN economic growth is just based on exporting. US market cant afford to buy lots of CN products now, so CN economy also get worse, no sight of recovery now. Huawei/ Xiaomi etc will go broke if US buy Samsung, LG, Sony stuffs etc instead.

CN also has a very serious of over producing problem now while VN is just over producing fish, shrimp and thats not a big problem for us .

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

CN economic growth is just based on exporting. US market cant afford to buy lots of CN products now, so CN economy also get worse, no sight of recovery now. Huawei/ Xiaomi etc will go broke if US buy Samsung, LG, Sony stuffs etc instead.

CN also has a very serious of over producing problem now while VN is just over producing fish, shrimp and thats not a big problem for us .

Only China's private enterprises relying on export, but China's economic backbone is based on the SOE.

Also, most China's export products to the US in fact belongs to the US brands like the iPhone.

If the US is trying to hurt China's export, they will also hurt their own multinationals.

That's why Trump is still hesitating to wage a tariff war against China. Otherwise, the lobbying power of the US multinationals will simply rip him apart.

How abt 2008, I don't know these incidents you said, Can you enlighten me, are you sure VCP required from CPC?

Your then premier has come to China for rescue.

http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjdt_665385/wshd_665389/t519571.shtml

 

[TaiShang]

CN economic growth is just based on exporting. US market cant afford to buy lots of CN products now, so CN economy also get worse, no sight of recovery now. Huawei/ Xiaomi etc will go broke if US buy Samsung, LG, Sony stuffs etc instead.

CN also has a very serious of over producing problem now while VN is just over producing fish, shrimp and thats not a big problem for us .

My friend, you need serious update on your data-set.

China relies less on export as percentage of its GDP than most other countries, and even less on the US market.

I guess China has mostly passed the export dependency stage, which is key to ensure break-through from middle income trap.

China, unlike Japan and South Korea, does not enjoy the protective and favorable geopolitical and economic umbrella. And it does not need one. It has to generate its own consumption market. It is not by chance that we created shopping frenzies such as 11. 11.

Belt and Road is also for the purpose of creating a trade ecosystem independent from the US across the Eurasian landmass.

Vietnam needs to avoid export dependency after its value-added grows into a valuable unit. Right now, sure, you need to export anything possible. But, eventually, you need to rely on domestic market otherwise it is geopolitically risky. Others like the US can easily blackmail you.

This is why the BRI is also important for Vietnam.

 

[Viva_Viet]

Only China's private enterprises relying on export, but China's economic backbone is based on the SOE.

Also, most China's export products to the US in fact belongs to the US brands like the iPhone.

If the US is trying to hurt China's export, they will also hurt their own multinationals.

That's why Trump is still hesitating to wage a tariff war against China. Otherwise, the lobbying power of the US multinationals will simply rip him apart.



Your then premier has come to China for rescue.

http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjdt_665385/wshd_665389/t519571.shtml

As I know, some big CN SOEs are in serious profit loss (CN petroleum loss,China Railway Group -- over $700 billion in debt. ). U guys just trying to survive now

My friend, you need serious update on your data-set.

China relies less on export as percentage of its GDP than most other countries, and even less on the US market.

I guess China has mostly passed the export dependency stage, which is key to ensure break-through from middle income trap.

China, unlike Japan and South Korea, does not enjoy the protective and favorable geopolitical and economic umbrella. And it does not need one. It has to generate its own consumption market. It is not by chance that we created shopping frenzies such as 11. 11.

Belt and Road is also for the purpose of creating a trade ecosystem independent from the US across the Eurasian landmass.

Vietnam needs to avoid export dependency after its value-added grows into a valuable unit. Right now, sure, you need to export anything possible. But, eventually, you need to rely on domestic market otherwise it is geopolitically risky. Others like the US can easily blackmail you.

This is why the BRI is also important for Vietnam.


View attachment 434418

See, Cn can not export, so your economy is falling now and u have to keep devaluating your currency while VN economy is growing up robustly thanks to everyone eat fish, shimp, wearing shoes/ shirt, Samsung phone from VN

Your currency value keep falling showing that your economy is worsening, you should prepare for the worst, dont be so optimistic

 

[TaiShang]

As I know, some big CN SOEs are in serious profit loss (CN petroleum loss,China Railway Group -- over $700 billion in debt. ). U guys just trying to survive now


See, Cn can not export, so your economy is falling now and u have to keep devaluating your currency while VN economy is growing up robustly thanks to everyone eat fish, shimp, wearing shoes/ shirt, Samsung phone from VN

Your currency value keep falling showing that your economy is worsening, you should prepare for the worst, dont be so optimistic

My friend, the decline is in share as percentage of GDP, not in absolute. In absolute terms, China's exports have been growing. But, the share of exports in GDP is declining because other sectors of economy such as domestic consumption now have greater weight.

As I know, some big CN SOEs are in serious profit loss (CN petroleum loss,China Railway Group -- over $700 billion in debt. ). U guys just trying to survive now

SOEs are meant to make "loss". Taiwan Rail is also in serious loss. But, the indirect benefits (positive externalities) that are not counted as profit actually way surpass the loss on paper.

In the end, it is debt to public which is making more money each year (and government's tax revenue is growing, now nearing to 2 trillion USD in the Mainland).

I do not think Vietnam will ever get rid of the SOEs. That just does not make sense from the point of a developing socialist country.

And what is your comment on the share of exports in Vietnam's GDP? Do you find it alarming? I, personally think, this is a natural progress, although, as we see from the chart I shared, exports have never accounted for a high 90% in China's economy - the highest percentage point was at around 40%. Yet, people still make a lot of stories on China's export dependency (especially dependency on the US market).

They will never like us communists, my friend. Damned if you do, damned if you do not.

 

[Viva_Viet]

My friend, the decline is in share as percentage of GDP, not in absolute. In absolute terms, China's exports have been growing. But, the share of exports in GDP is declining because other sectors of economy such as domestic consumption now have greater weight.

Okay, CN economy may getting better, but if CN wanna become powerful and great and strong enough to take back TW, then it never happen cos US-JP still far smarter than you in controlling TW. If CN wage war to retake TW alone, then your economy will collapse. Same problem in SCS (east sea), trying war will make CN economy collapse,too cos PLAN need lots of money for modernizing .

So, if you wanna keep living on desert and accept losing TW for good just for keep your economy in stable, then, thats your ppl choice . unlike VN, we will not accept to lose any big islands to the enemies.

SOEs are meant to make "loss". Taiwan Rail is also in serious loss. But, the indirect benefits (positive externalities) that are not counted as profit actually way surpass the loss on paper.

In the end, it is debt to public which is making more money each year (and government's tax revenue is growing, now nearing to 2 trillion USD in the Mainland).

I do not think Vietnam will ever get rid of the SOEs. That just does not make sense from the point of a developing socialist country.

And what is your comment on the share of exports in Vietnam's GDP? Do you find it alarming? I, personally think, this is a natural progress, although, as we see from the chart I shared, exports have never accounted for a high 90% in China's economy - the highest percentage point was at around 40%. Yet, people still make a lot of stories on China's export dependency (especially dependency on the US market).

They will never like us communists, my friend. Damned if you do, damned if you do not.

Just like @Viet said " critical companies such as defence, in operating sea and airports are not up to grab" we only sell SOE in rail way, milk, beer etc to share the benefit wt some friendly countries

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

As I know, some big CN SOEs are in serious profit loss (CN petroleum loss,China Railway Group -- over $700 billion in debt. ). U guys just trying to survive now

Nope, it is on contrary, China's SOE is becoming stronger than ever, the liability is going down, and even the US doesn't understand why.

http://www.chinabankingnews.com/2017/10/27/state-owned-enterprise-profits-47-6-january-september/

Just like @Viet said " critical companies such as defence, in operating sea and airports are not up to grab" we only sell SOE in rail way, milk, beer etc to share the benefit wt some friendly countries

The railway is critical and strategic.

Even Britain as a frontrunner of the capitalistic countries, they are now getting regretted for privatizing their railway systems and cursing Margeret Thatcher as an old hag for destroying their public transportation.

 

[Viet]

VCP is always asking CCP to bail it out, just like they did in 2008.

VCP won't sell it SOE, because it will further enrich the oligarch class and embolden them to overthrow the entire communistic system.

They will only sell 49% of each SOE's share at max.

I´m afraid you come too late. VN government has decided to keep only 100 major state companies and sells the rest. China is welcome to buy some. some chinese dream to control VN economy, don´t they?

anyway, why hang on those SOE? VN generates 10,000 private companies a month, some 100 SOEs don´t matter any. VN is a country in transition. we must move on. Ah a stat: VN makes some progrress in Ease of doing business, rank 68, still far behind top countries, but coming close to Thailand and Malaysia. I hope we catch them up in a few years.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

I´m afraid you come too late. VN government has decided to keep only 100 major state companies and sells the rest. China is welcome to buy some. some chinese dream to control VN economy, don´t they?

anyway, why hang on those SOE? VN generates 10,000 private companies a month, some 100 SOEs don´t matter any. VN is a country in transition. we must move on. Ah a stat: VN makes some progrress in Ease of doing business, rank 68, still far behind top countries, but coming close to Thailand and Malaysia. I hope we catch them up in a few years.

Vietnam is about to repeat China's mistake in the 1980s

Deng Xiaoping made a serious mistake for trusting the westernization in all political spectrum, and his successor was much more clever and pragmatic than him for not repeating the same mistake.

Many VCP elites have misinterpreted China's economic reform, they believe that Deng was the only holy grail for China's success. In fact, it is clearly not.

 

[xiao qi]

Only China's private enterprises relying on export, but China's economic backbone is based on the SOE.

Also, most China's export products to the US in fact belongs to the US brands like the iPhone.

If the US is trying to hurt China's export, they will also hurt their own multinationals.

That's why Trump is still hesitating to wage a tariff war against China. Otherwise, the lobbying power of the US multinationals will simply rip him apart.



Your then premier has come to China for rescue.

http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjdt_665385/wshd_665389/t519571.shtml

Rescue for what when Vietnamese economy condition in 2008 is not bad. Your link you mentioned also is a normal visit between two countries. And Dung is a pro-Western leader.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Rescue for what when Vietnamese economy condition in 2008 is not bad. Your link you mentioned also is a normal visit between two countries. And Dung is a pro-Western leader.

Most Vietnamese premiers were from the south, so they are pro-US as usual.

 

[Viet]

Rescue for what when Vietnamese economy condition in 2008 is not bad. Your link you mentioned also is a normal visit between two countries. And Dung is a pro-Western leader.

The Chinese will be the last ones on earth Vietnam will ask for assistance. they will demand our lands as compensation otherwise.

Anyway a news. Vietnam Hoa Sen steel opens a new 1.5 million ton steel production line. Together with Formosa steel Vietnam adds 3 million ton steel by end of the year. It is still a long way of installing 100 million ton steel capacity.

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Artic...shake-up-of-Southeast-Asian-steel-market.html

 

[xiao qi]

Most Vietnamese premiers were from the south, so they are pro-US as usual.

I don't think Dung went to China to require for the assistant. Dung is a Vietnamese leader who against China and pro-US. Under his period, Vietnam changes the view toward US, at least He tried to make Vietnam less depend on China( so strange if he came to China to do something like you said) and turned blue light for the Vietnam media when talking about China. Any Vietnamese leader could come to China to required for the assistant but Dung is not.

The Chinese will be the last ones on earth Vietnam will ask for assistance. they will demand our lands as compensation otherwise.

Anyway a news. Vietnam Hoa Sen steel opens a new 1.5 million ton steel production line. Together with Formosa steel Vietnam adds 3 million ton steel by end of the year. It is still a long way of installing 100 million ton steel capacity.

View attachment 434619

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Artic...shake-up-of-Southeast-Asian-steel-market.html

During Vietnam War, I'm not strange when Vietnamese came to China to ask for assistance. Because they are similar in communist theory and one of the important partner who supports Vietnam war. But now, although China is 1st Vietnamese trade counterpart, Vietnamese leader is so careful