Vietnam Defence Forum

[Carlosa]

I agree we must prioritize. first and foremost, more subs are necessary so we can better play cat and mouse with the chinese.

here is a interesting article quoting the accessment of Vasily Kashin of Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a think tank: Vietnam 6 Kilo are superior than 12 Kilo of China. Besides, our purchase of Kilo-class submarines could have serious political consequences for its relationship with China and other Southeast Asian states, whatever it means.

Vietnam's new Kilo-class submarines to affect China ties｜Politics｜News｜WantChinaTimes.com


yes, you are right. and the most important thing is, due to imbalance of power at sea, we have no choice but return to the classical tactics: ambush, hit and run so basically transfering the guerilla warfare from the jungle to the south china sea.

in doing so, we had been very successful in defeating the naval forces of the Han, Mongol, Champa and Siam, some success against the French and America superior naval forces. We are master of guerilla warfare, so there is no reason why we don´t return to the old classical ways.

Vietnam is doing the right steps and in the right direction, slowly but surely. The game will be long (most likely) and is an international dispute with many actors and the way things will go is unpredictable. China can easily push too far and that can result in a new dynamic and a new balance of power in the region. The cautious and risk averse Obama will probably be replaced by Hillary Clinton which is considered a hawk and no friend of China; if that happens, the chinese better stop encroaching or they'll end up in war with USA. The chinese are overconfident and are very likely to overplay their hand and put themselves into a corner.

Also, most countries in the region are steadily rearming and slowly moving towards some sort of military alliance or cooperation against China. The chinese are being very successful in uniting everybody against them and in moving everybody towards Uncle Sam. The party that has the upper hand now might not be the one that has it in the future.

Have to see how things play out, have to stay cool, play the cat and mouse game with a cool head like VN did with the oil rig. The oil rig was a disaster for China in many ways. They showed their true colors and now everybody is very clear about them. VN got a lot of sympathy and support, we only need to see the big change in how USA approached VN as a consequence of the oil rig and all the visits from high US officials right after that. I think the tide is turning against China, but more will be revealed as time goes on. Right now VN needs to play for time.

 

[tonyget]

You didn't get what I said, USA WILL NOT FIGHT FOR VIETNAM. USA will fight for its own reasons and purely because it fits the needs of USA, not Vietnam. I have a long standing position here that USA will not help Vietnam for the sake of Vietnam. The thing is, if China keeps pushing the limits, USA will have to intervene, again, because of its own interests.

America's interest in SCS is freedom of navigation. As long as China or Vietnam don't gone mad, such as start to attack merchant ships like Iran and Iraq did, the US is unlikely to intervent.

Also, most countries in the region are steadily rearming and slowly moving towards some sort of military alliance or cooperation against China. The chinese are being very successful in uniting everybody against them and in moving everybody towards Uncle Sam.

Not true, China-SE Asia relation in cold war era was much worse than now, bilateral relations have been improved in recent years

 

[Viet]

Very correct and I would add: to file a claim with the UNCLOS court, but I have a feeling the VN government wont do that.

No longer needed because the oil rig was withdrawn.
the government says the preparation is completed, so we can sue the chinese if they return.

if we sue them now, the chinese could overreact and the consequences could be very ugly.

 

[Carlosa]

America's interest in SCS is freedom of navigation. As long as China or Vietnam don't gone mad, such as start to attack merchant ships like Iran and Iraq did, the US is unlikely to intervent.

Not true, China-SE Asia relation in cold war era was much worse than now, bilateral relations have been improved in recent years

Not really, freedom of navigation is what they talk about, but their main aim is to stay in control of the area or at least to deny China control of the area.

Ask Malaysia how they feel about china after china's exercise at James Shoal. Ask Indonesia how they feel about China after a few incidents in the last couple of years between Indonesian coast guard vessels and chinese vessels in the Natuna islands area. Singapore is also concerned about the 9 dash claims and China's actions in the area lately and its furthering its military ties with USA. Are Japan and Philippines friendlier with China now that they were a few years ago?

Those are the countries that matter, those are the ones that have issues with China or are concerned about China and they are all going into the arms of Uncle Sam, its very clear, why do you think they are all rearming?

 

[Carlosa]

No longer needed because the oil rig was withdrawn.
the government says the preparation is completed, so we can sue the chinese if they return.

if we sue them now, the chinese could overreact and the consequences could be very ugly.

Well, the oil rig is just one episode, the legal claim to the paracels and the islands lost in 1988 and that whole 9 dash line will require Vietnam to have to do something legal sooner or later otherwise as time goes by, it keeps losing the claim and the facts on the ground established by china become the final status quo. Of course we know that the Unclos tribunal will not change the reality on the ground, but at least it makes clear who has the valid claim and will make china lose face. I like what Philippines is doing with UNCLOS and I think USA is waiting for the UNCLOS judgement to become more involved since it would have the legal backing of UNCLOS for their actions. I think that can also apply to Vietnam in some degree.

That being said, I also agree with you that filing the claim after the chinese withdrawal of the oil rig will make things worse for now. I guess will have to wait for the next confrontation and be better prepared for the consequences.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

I agree we must prioritize. first and foremost, more subs are necessary so we can better play cat and mouse with the chinese.

here is a interesting article quoting the accessment of Vasily Kashin of Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a think tank: Vietnam 6 Kilo are superior than 12 Kilo of China. Besides, our purchase of Kilo-class submarines could have serious political consequences for its relationship with China and other Southeast Asian states, whatever it mean

It doesn't matter if the Viet Kilo is better than the Chinese Kilo or whatever, since Kilo is not even China's best sub.

China now is starting to equipping many SSNs comparable to Seawolf/Virginia, also many advanced AIP subs.

PS, the modern warfare is all about the systematic confrontation, when you don't have the whole ecosystem, then forget about it.

 

[Carlosa]

It doesn't matter if the Viet Kilo is better than the Chinese Kilo or whatever, since Kilo is not even China's best sub.

China now is starting to equipping many SSNs comparable to Seawolf/Virginia, also many advanced AIP subs.

PS, the modern warfare is all about the systematic confrontation, when you don't have the whole ecosystem, then forget about it.

I don't think china can match USA on the sub technology of the seawolf / virginia. What are the bases for that claim? What has China developed that can show that level of proficiency? China is depending quite a bit on Russia for sub technology and what the Russians are giving them is limited.

The AIP subs are the Lada class from Russia, they had a lot of problems, remains to be seen if they will workout. The first one of those subs is not even finished, its a bit premature to make those claims.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

I don't think china can match USA on the sub technology of the seawolf / virginia. What are the bases for that claim? What has China developed that can show that level of proficiency? China is depending quite a bit on Russia for sub technology and what the Russians are giving them is limited.

Seawolf/Virginia are not the most recent sub technology for the US, but right now the US doesn't have the fund to build the next gen nuclear sub.

China's Type 093B has already many features close to that of the Seawolf/Virginia, but due its platform limitation, it is still slightly inferior, while the Type 095 will be a whole generation ahead which being on the same level with Seawolf/Virginia.

Again, China doesn't depend Russia on the nuclear sub techonology, China only purchased Romeo and Kilo from Russia in the past, but its nuclear subs are 100% indigenous, Russia will not sell everything to China.

 

[tonyget]

Not really, freedom of navigation is what they talk about, but their main aim is to stay in control of the area or at least to deny China control of the area.

And what exactly is the underlying meaning of "control of the area" aside from freedom of navigation ?

Ask Malaysia how they feel about china after china's exercise at James Shoal. Ask Indonesia how they feel about China after a few incidents in the last couple of years between Indonesian coast guard vessels and chinese vessels in the Natuna islands area. Singapore is also concerned about the 9 dash claims and China's actions in the area lately and its furthering its military ties with USA. Are Japan and Philippines friendlier with China now that they were a few years ago?

Those are the countries that matter, those are the ones that have issues with China or are concerned about China and they are all going into the arms of Uncle Sam, its very clear, why do you think they are all rearming?

China has no motive to invade those countries, and they are aware of that

 

[Carlosa]

And what exactly is the underlying meaning of "control of the area" aside from freedom of navigation ?

China has no motive to invade those countries, and they are aware of that

Geostrategic / military control of the area or the denial of what china claims. China says that they owns the islands and waters within the 9 dash area.

Nobody is talking about invading their mainland, but taking over the waters and islands that are within their EEZ areas. Are you saying that those countries are not concerned about that?

Seawolf/Virginia are not the most recent sub technology for the US, but right now the US doesn't have the fund to build the next gen nuclear sub.

China's Type 093B has already many features close to that of the Seawolf/Virginia, but due its platform limitation, it is still slightly inferior, while the Type 095 will be a whole generation ahead which being on the same level with Seawolf/Virginia.

Again, China doesn't depend Russia on the nuclear sub techonology, China only purchased Romeo and Kilo from Russia in the past, but its nuclear subs are 100% indigenous, Russia will not sell everything to China.

Well, those are big claims, that's not easy to validate. China has not shown any sub model, nuclear or diesel that lives up to expectations, at least until recently, actually the opposite would be true about operational subs, so to go from that type of experience to mastering sub technology in the newer or upcoming models, that would be a very big step. I find it difficult to believe. Anything is possible, but I think its unlikely. If I start to see reports from the americans, etc that such chinese sub is very good or that they are worry about such and such sub, then I can start to believe it, but I haven't seen anything like that yet, actually, what I read is that the americans are not worry at all when it comes to chinese subs and they consider them inferior.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Geostrategic / military control of the area or the denial of what china claims. China says that they owns the islands and waters within the 9 dash area.

Nobody is talking about invading their mainland, but taking over the waters and islands that are within their EEZ areas. Are you saying that those countries are not concerned about that?



Well, those are big claims, that's not easy to validate. China has not shown any sub model, nuclear or diesel that lives up to expectations, at least until recently, actually the opposite would be true about operational subs, so to go from that type of experience to mastering sub technology in the newer or upcoming models, that would be a very big step. I find it difficult to believe. Anything is possible, but I think its unlikely. If I start to see reports from the americans, etc that such chinese sub is very good or that they are worry about such and such sub, then I can start to believe it, but I haven't seen anything like that yet, actually, what I read is that the americans are not worry at all when it comes to chinese subs and they consider them inferior.

Of course, the US will consider anything from China as "inferior", including our economic model.

Yet we are the one who still grows strongly in both manufacturing and technology, while the US is stagnated, they have to bloat up their GDP data with those irrelevant figures in order to keep the distance with China's GDP.

 

[Carlosa]

Of course, the US will consider anything from China as "inferior", including our economic model.

Yet we are the one who still grows strongly in both manufacturing and technology, while the US is stagnated, they have to bloat up their GDP data with those irrelevant figures in order to keep the distance with China's GDP.

No doubt that china has accomplished a lot, but......... I lived in USA for 25 years and I've been going to china very often for the last 12 years. I see plenty of things wrong with that economic model and how things are done in china and many chinese people that I speak with also tell me that. If I have to choose where to live, I prefer the stagnated USA and many rich chinese rush to move to USA as soon as they can, I would say they vote with their feet. As far as I'm concerned and considering that I have plenty of experience with both, I don't like either one much (even that I have a preference if I have to choose one), but that's just my take. Canada, on the other hand, I like it a lot better than USA.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

No doubt that china has accomplished a lot, but......... I lived in USA for 25 years and I've been going to china very often for the last 12 years. I see plenty of things wrong with that economic model and how things are done in china and many chinese people that I speak with also tell me that. If I have to choose where to live, I prefer the stagnated USA and many rich chinese rush to move to USA as soon as they can, I would say they vote with their feet. As far as I'm concerned and considering that I have plenty of experience with both, I don't like either one much (even that I have a preference if I have to choose one), but that's just my take. Canada, on the other hand, I like it a lot better than USA.

China's economy is still mainly based on state owned economy, those rich tycoons can go anywhere they want, because if they don't, soon many of these crooks will get arrested.

But many of them are also not naive, because they know if they move to an uncharted territory like the US without a second thought, their wealth will also get stripped away by the US regime.

 

[Carlosa]

China's economy is still mainly based on state owned economy, those rich tycoons can go anywhere they want, because if they don't, soon many of these crooks will get arrested.

But many of them are also not naive, because they know if they move to an uncharted territory like the US without a second thought, their wealth will also get stripped away by the US regime.

I know what type of people you are referring to and that's true, but actually most wealthy chinese that moved to USA are unrelated to corrupted government officials or their families, they are usually business people that had the chance to travel to USA for business or study and then decided to move there or to move their families there. I met quite a few of them myself.

 

[sincity]

Have to see how things play out, have to stay cool, play the cat and mouse game with a cool head like VN did with the oil rig. The oil rig was a disaster for China in many ways. They showed their true colors and now everybody is very clear about them. VN got a lot of sympathy and support, we only need to see the big change in how USA approached VN as a consequence of the oil rig and all the visits from high US officials right after that. I think the tide is turning against China, but more will be revealed as time goes on. Right now VN needs to play for time.[/quote]

The placement of China oil platform in SCS in no way damage China image in the world, the whole world know China intention of claiming the whole SCS, any nation without territorial dispute with China wouldn't concern themselves with SCS issue and condemn China action. US pivot to Asia couple yrs before China moved the oil rig, US intention to preserve US power in Asia and to assert US military influence in the region disregard China action in SCS. US will always used SCS issue to bolster Japan, Philippine alliance with completely reliance on US military backing. No nation willfully waste lives, money to defend other nation interest without converging US interest in the situation. US want to used the territorial dispute in SCS then turned strong anti China sentiment of the Vietnamese population into a forceful demand for democratic change and overthrow the Vietnam communist government, Vietnam government wary of protest can lead to collapse of the communist government, Ukraine peaceful protest and revolution turn into never ending crisis. US will never fight a territorial war for communist Vietnam.