jhungary
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It is worthless to discuss over and over again who wins the Vietnam war. The yellow flag does not fly over Vietnam...but in some countries like Australia. Cheers.
@jhungary
View attachment 406296
lol, It wasn't me who brought this topic up, and I am just saying what I thought about the war. The outcome of the war is hazy at best, many Military Scientist believe the result of the war is not very clean cut as it was said by most of almost everyone... Whether they had involved in the war or not.
I think for Vietnam in regards to a possible south china sea conflict, their air force would be just as important as their navy. I'm not sure whether maritime patrol aircrafts and ASW aircrafts would be operated by their navy or air force, but regardless they offer capabilities that are very important in maritime environment if Vietnam wants to restrict China in SCS. Upgrades to C4ISR and with AWAC aircrafts from their air force would give Vietnam the ability to see and shoot from various air (fighters armed with anti ship missile, asw aircraft etc..) and sea platforms( frigates, corvettes and submarines), a capability which is currently non existent in their armed force. By having the airforce work with the navy it's like a force multiplier, which is good for Vietnam because it's navy will never match PLAN in regards to it's size. Modern militaries need their military branches operating together and not separately.
If we have to look at a SCS conflict, the war would most likely decided at sea. The Airpower of Vietnam is multi-fold weaker than the Chinese (even with only South Military Command against the whole Vietnamese Air Force, on a standalone engagement, Vietnam Airforce would probably got wipe out pretty soon, as the war start and China will gain Air Superiority in the opening hours. And with Air Force gone, Vietnam Navy would be a sitting duck without Air Cover, especially so now China have 2 Aircraft Carrier. Unless Vietnam can achieve 2 things in a battle with China..
1.) They can lure the Chinese Air Force out of the ocean and into Vietnam Airspace, which combine with SAM and other Air Defence System, there may be a chance, but that would totally depends on the Chinese.
2.) Combine Service Warship and Air Power to make a stance, which effectively Combine the Navy and the Air Force and form an Advance Air Defence System that way.
That would mean the Air Force would have been playing a secondary role where surface ship would act as Radar Warning system, directing the Air force plane to intercept the incoming air threat, the Navy could also thin out the air threat a bit, which mean you will need Air Warfare Destroyer/Frigate, and Duel Role fighter (along the line of F-16, F-2, Su-24 or Su-34.)
Would Strongly not recommend buying any AWACS until you have enough resource to make sure they are staying alive in battle, otherwise it would have been a moot point because Land Base Radar would have already cover the range out to the sea already.
Well, If as you said, a navy and I think you mean a surface navy is of the utmost importance for Vietnam, then you need to address the issue of how its going to survive against the PLAN. Putting money into ships that will have to stay in the ports in case of conflict is not a wise decision other than having the minimum of ships that are needed for peacetime patrol roles. And on top of that, now there are 3 chinese bases with airfields in the Spratleys plus the upcoming chinese carriers.
Why you need surface ships?
The problem for a VN/CN engagement would mean an almost total destruction with all Vietnamese Naval Asset in the region, thus all naval base will be attacked by the Chinese by both air and sea.
Problem with Submarine is that submarine cannot stay long underwater and cannot chase down modern warship (which are doing well over 30 knots) and cannot stay underwater for a long period, basically you can stay as long as the provision allowed, and then you either need to tend to them or have to port, which is hard because almost all Naval Base are within Striking range from China. Unless you can dealt with the PLAN within a month or so before your provision ran out, you are not going to do much with a full submarine force.
On the other hand, Vietnam Air Force is not a remote match for PLAAF, that mean you either need to draw them close to Vietnam soil which they can be engaged by advance ADS deployed all over Vietnam or you will have to go up and fight them air-air, which is bad.
The only way you can remotely win a war with China is to use an Air/Sea Battle Concept developed by the United States Marine Corp which detail how a small force with limited air and sea power can engage and win a A2AD war with a near peer or better enemy.
What Air/Sea Doctrine present is that a war can be fought with a connection between Air and Sea power, which you uses your air force to support your navy and uses your navy to support the Air Force. And you cannot do that with most of your ship are sub. You can't use them to support the airforce. That's why you are going to need surface ship..