Vietnam And The South China Sea: Hypothetical Scenarios – Analysis

[Korean]

Scenario II: Vietnam sides with China

You can rule this one out.

Vietnam's bad blood with China stretches back thousands of years. Ho Chi Min's last word on his death bed was for the future generation to never trust China for another 1000 years.

So Vietnam won't turn pro-China, because China's expansionism threats Vietnam's very existence.

 

[Battle of Bach Dang River]

Would you please elucidate who that 'enemy' might be?

Chinese were going to our exclusive economic zones (in 200 nautical miles), where they often robbed and killed our fishermen. But they run away when was detected by Vietnam's Sea Police.

 

[SinoChallenger]

LOL....... Vietnam can't even stop China's coast guard from patrolling Vietnam's self-proclaimed EEZ.

And Korea lost control of the northern half of their country forever. Koreans know that as soon as China begins to annex North Korea, eventually, the Korean ethnicity will become part of our empire and then we have a good legal claim on South Korea too.

 

[gambit]

LOL....... Vietnam can't even stop China's coast guard from patrolling Vietnam's self-proclaimed EEZ.

And Korea lost control of the northern half of their country forever. Koreans know that as soon as China begins to annex North Korea, eventually, the Korean ethnicity will become part of our empire and then we have a good legal claim on South Korea too.

That is utter garbage. Annexation is essentially a conquest and if China annex North Korea, in no way does that give China any legal claim to the other half of Korea since North Korea never has any claim to South Korea in the first place. So much for that 'high Chinese IQ'.

 

[Star√ation]

The fear become a province or a colonial state of China widely spread among Vietnamese people. Even being influenced by China is not favored by the public.
How ironic it is that the current Vietnamese government is a heavily pro-China government.
The South China Sea, prior to 2011, Vietnamese pay little care about the SCS. It rarely appears in any text book in highschool let alone being a daily-chatting topic. No matter it's China, India or the West drill oil in the SCS, Vietnam could only get a small faction of that benefit. So we don't pay any damn care. Vietnam is also not in thirsty for oil as China does.
The SCS issue in Vietnam is just a mere political game. It's just a tool to divert public attention at least in Vietnamese side.
In the early months of 2011, there was a Vietnamese state-own shipbuilding corp went on bankruptcy, likely the biggest bankruptcy we've ever had. All the debt it left behind was stunning, the damage to the country's reputation... It was the government's huge failure, Mr. Prime Minister under huge pressure to resign. Then the SCS issue suddenly broke out, public opinion diverted, Mr. Prime Minister miraculously survive the crisis.

Furthermore, the SCS issue and multilaterizing it are just a bargaining trick the Vietnamese government uses to heighten its price on the negotiation table with the Chinese. You could not hope Vietnam go further against China unless Vietnam is back by a power nation like the US or Russia. To be fair, India influence over Vietnam is still very low.

 

[SinoChallenger]

The fear become a province or a colonial state of China widely spread among Vietnamese people. Even being influenced by China is not favored by the public.
How ironic it is that the current Vietnamese government is a heavily pro-China government.
The South China Sea, prior to 2011, Vietnamese pay little care about the SCS. It rarely appears in any text book in highschool let alone being a daily-chatting topic. No matter it's China, India or the West drill oil in the SCS, Vietnam could only get a small faction of that benefit. So we don't pay any damn care. Vietnam is also not in thirsty for oil as China does.
The SCS issue in Vietnam is just a mere political game. It's just a tool to divert public attention at least in Vietnamese side.
In the early months of 2011, there was a Vietnamese state-own shipbuilding corp went on bankruptcy, likely the biggest bankruptcy we've ever had. All the debt it left behind was stunning, the damage to the country's reputation... It was the government's huge failure, Mr. Prime Minister under huge pressure to resign. Then the SCS issue suddenly broke out, public opinion diverted, Mr. Prime Minister miraculously survive the crisis.

Furthermore, the SCS issue and multilaterizing it are just a bargaining trick the Vietnamese government uses to heighten its price on the negotiation table with the Chinese. You could not hope Vietnam go further against China unless Vietnam is back by a power nation like the US or Russia. To be fair, India influence over Vietnam is still very low.

It's always been obvious that Vietnam's posturing is to distract domestic unrest from 20% inflation, corruption and the widening poor-rich divide. But Vietnam may have made a fatal mistake to turn China into an enemy. It is probably too late now to stop.

That is utter garbage. Annexation is essentially a conquest and if China annex North Korea, in no way does that give China any legal claim to the other half of Korea since North Korea never has any claim to South Korea in the first place. So much for that 'high Chinese IQ'.

LOL....... DPRK claims all of Korean peninsula, and if DPRK lead by Kim Jong-Un joins China, we can claim all of Korean peninsula too!

 

[SpiritHS]

It's always been obvious that Vietnam's posturing is to distract domestic unrest from 20% inflation, corruption and the widening poor-rich divide. But Vietnam may have made a fatal mistake to turn China into an enemy. It is probably too late now to stop.

before Cable cutting event made ​​by Chinese , at the forums in Vietnam, we have asked the government to be strong with China.
in the mind of every people of Vietnam, We understand the Chinese want to expand to the south, Vietnam never dependent on China.

 

[SpiritHS]

Chinese were going to our exclusive economic zones (in 200 nautical miles), where they often robbed and killed our fishermen. But they run away when was detected by Vietnam's Sea Police.

I think you might mistakenly with Chinese friends, it can be a group of pirates and sponsored by the group mole.