US takes firm line in nuclear negotiations with India

[Awesome]

An wish to have close relation would not mean you have shake one's head for everything America says.

American temptation is hard to resist,but maybe for India it is not so tempting ,elsse F-18's would already been flying around in IAF colors!

Haha being so short-sighted? India lose its bargaining chip with Russia for Pakistan/China to swoop in?

India is in a fix. It has been presented with choices between two arch rivals.

Once India starts to shake Russia loose it could no longer argue its 1.5 bil per annum carrot for Russian fidelity. Indians can't make the choice because of political reasons. It's so obvious that you got to be blind to not see it!

 

[Contrarian]

Blain, Asim and Adux,

I had a study saved, but somehow I deleted it, the fact is that lifiting of US sanctions on India after tests was part of deal to bring MOnmohan regime and open India for US corporate, no one ever resisted and it had happened at per US plan.

US is undobtedly a big fish and can hurt any small fish any time, there are not many options left for India, they are enimical towards all of their neighbours and got other problems which can easily be exploited by US.

Honestly speaking, India would accept the US terms and go ahead and play a role of US puppet in future, now what happens to her regionally or internally is not a headache of US.

India is enemical only towards Pakistan. Clear that first. We may not trust the Chinese, that does not mean we have an animosity towards each other. If you have not seen, India and China are going towards dispute redressal, there has been a MAJOR success in sorting out the border problem. China has given up claim on Sikkim, recognised it as India, and India has done so for Tibet.

BD, we have steadily bettering relations, BD also cannot pose us any threat.

But no one in world would be able to convince an Indian fellow, in what mess they are today!

As opposed to a Pakistani who claims to know better than the Indians in the which situation India is in .

 

[Awesome]

Blain, Asim and Adux,

I had a study saved, but somehow I deleted it, the fact is that lifiting of US sanctions on India after tests was part of deal to bring MOnmohan regime and open India for US corporate, no one ever resisted and it had happened at per US plan.

US is undobtedly a big fish and can hurt any small fish any time, there are not many options left for India, they are enimical towards all of their neighbours and got other problems which can easily be exploited by US.

Honestly speaking, India would accept the US terms and go ahead and play a role of US puppet in future, now what happens to her regionally or internally is not a headache of US.

But no one in world would be able to convince an Indian fellow, in what mess they are today!

Honestly speaking no one could convince us back in the 80s that in just 10 years we'd be under sanctions! India has much to offer right now...

How do you suppose US would get India to engage China in the future? India's in no shape to take on China right now. There would have to be a significant event that would push India to confront China and give the US justification to heavily arm India at that point.

Two possibilities, war with Pakistan or Taiwan declares Independence. Indians have good reason to believe they won't be sucked into a greater US-game. It does look all quite flimsy right now. Of course we've seen things change quite fast.

The world changed all at once on 9/11.

 

[Contrarian]

Haha being so short-sighted? India lose its bargaining chip with Russia for Pakistan/China to swoop in?

India is in a fix. It has been presented with choices between two arch rivals.

Once India starts to shake Russia loose it could no longer argue its 1.5 bil per annum carrot for Russian fidelity. Indians can't make the choice because of political reasons. It's so obvious that you got to be blind to not see it!

India has walked the tightrope between arch rivals with finesse before. There would be nothing new. Our new relationship with the US does not come at the cost of our relationship with Russia. Russia intends to start an axis of power with Russia, India and China. India is integral to that as are the other two. Do you think Pakistan can fill that void instead of India??

Our relations with Russia are based on more than just arms exports. That is the first thing you have to realise. India would gain more and more influence if it has a friendship with the US, and Russia sure as hell wont be complaining for that.

I completely agree with Adux...it is hard for you guys to believe that India can suceed where you have not. Just because America played Pakistan, does not mean the same has to happen to India. Every SINGLE parameter between our respective relationships are different. India is neither dependent on US. It does not matter if our relations go bad, its not as though we get our military aid from them. We will still have our allies, we will still have our friends.

 

[Contrarian]

Honestly speaking no one could convince us back in the 80s that in just 10 years we'd be under sanctions! India has much to offer right now...

As far as strategists see it, India is the ONLY country that can offer a counterweight to China.

How do you suppose US would get India to engage China in the future? India's in no shape to take on China right now.

That would depend, where India takes China. China is in no shape to invade India, their asses would be handed to them, and neither are we to enter China, the same fate would await us.

They are modernizing, as are we.

There would have to be a significant event that would push India to confront China and give the US justification to heavily arm India at that point.

Two possibilities, war with Pakistan or Taiwan declares Independence.

You are mistaken, there is only one possibility. China wont intervene AT ALL if there is a war between India and Pakistan.
The only case is when Taiwan declares independence, or India decides to support Taiwan.

Indians have good reason to believe they won't be sucked into a greater US-game. It does look all quite flimsy right now. Of course we've seen things change quite fast.

The world changed all at once on 9/11.

Yes, and it changed for the better. India's stand was accepted the world over, and a new order was established. But saying that world changed because of one incident, would mean that India could become dependent on US cuz of one incident of similar magnitude would be WRONG.

We have our political system. India is not run by dictator, the parliament has to pass everything. US cannot enforce its will like it did on Pakistan. Our military is NOT AT ALL dependent on the US. Even if in the future, it did buy equipment from US, its not as if we would be destitute, India would have the economy, the influence, to buy from wherever in the globe they choose. So what exactly is US's hold on us?

 

[Adux]

Mir,

Your study is flawed, And I loathe conpsiracy theories., Indian Opened up its economy in 1992; after the break up Soviet Union under Prime Minister PV Narishma Rao. Its not in 2004.

Google is your friend,
And we are in a MEss, BullCrap, My firm along with the most other people I know are making millions, God I am happy it is this way. I live in Commie Bitchy state called Kerala, Even here we have Smart City promoted by UAE coming along in COCHIN.

 

[Adux]

Asim,

In a conventional India-China War, India would cream China. Go Check WAB's discussion's by OEE

 

[Contrarian]

Adux, that would be should the war be fought in India. If the war is in China, it would be Chinese that would be creaming India.

 

[MirBadshah]

Asim,

In a conventional India-China War, India would cream China. Go Check WAB's discussion's by OEE

I wish here was some chinese member, lets us wait and the forum grow...........lol

I dont disagree that India is "taking over the world" or is not a "Super power" but it would be nice to have comments from other side!!!!

 

[Contrarian]

I suggest MirBadshah that you read, what i have added in the next post in addition to what Adux wrote.

Lets get back to the TOPIC and not get diverted to the scenario's of an Indo-China war.

 

[Adux]

Adux, that would be should the war be fought in India. If the war is in China, it would be Chinese that would be creaming India.

Yes I was talking in the same exact tone, India cant carry its logistics that far inside, neither can China, Then you have the greatest obstacle The Himalayas. I am talking about a Chinese invasion. I wish Sword frequented more often, He would have given them 1987 Fight with the chinese. Where they were check-mated even before they could move

 

[con]

Haha being so short-sighted? India lose its bargaining chip with Russia for Pakistan/China to swoop in?

India is in a fix. It has been presented with choices between two arch rivals.

Once India starts to shake Russia loose it could no longer argue its 1.5 bil per annum carrot for Russian fidelity. Indians can't make the choice because of political reasons. It's so obvious that you got to be blind to not see it!

hmm,... even before US's carrots came around ,Israel already has a major share in the Indian defense money for years.I am yet to see the Russian cribbing.

And what makes you think as soon as US starts selling India will drop everything and buy US stuffs? Why would Russia be cribbing if India keeps providing it a billion dollar worth of business every year?

And frankly speaking,it makes sense. Get cheap platforms from Russia,spice it up with western systems. You are keep both the side of the globe happy. Su-30MKI,Phalcon with IL etc..etc.. the examples are already there.

And as far as buying everything from US is consider,may be the recent deal of choppers going to the europeans instead of Americans indicates Indians may not so easily ..like to eat the American carrot!

 

[Neo]

And India cant change its laws, Mostly the deal will get scuttled

You will have to since you're running out of uranium. Projected growth in nuclear reactors will consume all your fuel leaving less for nuclear aresenal.

 

[Contrarian]

Arsenals are already there and in good quantity. Plus, FBR's are there in India, and developing FAST.

On top of that, the future is Thorium in the world. Uranium is temporary, a couple of more decades, and the existing rules of the nuclear game would completely change.

 

[Neo]

Sixty Freaking Five Percent?
Monday February 27, 2006

India’s Prime Minister has released a statement on India’s plan to separate civil and military nuclear facilities.

The “civilian list” will contain less than 2/3 of India’s nuclear power reactors, by MWe:

Therefore our proposed Separation Plan entails identifying in phases, a number of our thermal nuclear reactors as civilian facilities to be placed under IAEA safeguards, amounting to roughly 65% of the total installed thermal nuclear power capacity, by the end of the separation plan. A list of some other DAE facilities may be added to the list of facilities within the civilian domain. The Separation Plan will create a clearly defined civilian domain, where IAEA safeguards apply. On our part, we are committed not to divert any nuclear material intended for the civilian domain from designated civilian use or for export to third countries without safeguards.

Singh also stated that safeguarding India’s prototype fast breeder reactors would be out of the question.

Here is a list of India’s operating reactors.

Unit Location Type Capacity (MWe) Date of Commercial Operation

TAPS-1 Tarapur, Maharashtra BWR 160 28-Oct-1969
TAPS-2 Tarapur, Maharashtra BWR 160 28-Oct-1969
RAPS-1 Rawatbhata, Rajasthan PHWR 100 16-Dec-1973
RAPS-2 Rawatbhata, Rajasthan PHWR 200 01-Apr-1981
MAPS-1 Kalpakkam, Tamilnadu PHWR 170 27-Jan-1984
MAPS-2 Kalpakkam, Tamilnadu PHWR 220 21-Mar-1986
NAPS-1 Narora, Uttar Pradesh PHWR 220 01-Jan-1991
NAPS-2 Narora, Uttar Pradesh PHWR 220 01-Jul-1992
KAPS-1 Kakrapar, Gujarat PHWR 220 06-May-1993
KAPS-2 Kakrapar, Gujarat PHWR 220 01-Sep-1995
KAIGA-1 Kaiga, Karnataka PHWR 220 16-Nov-2000
KAIGA-2 Kaiga, Karnataka PHWR 220 16-Mar-2000
RAPS-3 Rawatbhata, Rajasthan PHWR 220 01-Jun-2000
RAPS-4 Rawatbhata, Rajasthan PHWR 220 23-Dec-2000
TAPS-4 Tarapur, Maharashtra PHWR 540 12-Sept-2005
Total ... ... 3310 ...

The first four reactors (TAPS-1, TAPS-2, RAPS-1 and RAPS-2) are already under IAEA safeguards.

It looks to me that something like five of the nine essentially identical 200 MWe reactors would be added to the list. Singh didn’t offer any explanation regarding how that decision would be made. Only The Indian Express delves into the details of the speech. (The site has amazingly irritating pop-ups capable of defeating my Firefox pop-up blocker).

Nor did Singh indicate whether future reactors would be safeguarded.

Project Capacity (MWe) Scheduled Commercial Operation
TAPP-3 1 X 540 U3-Jan 07
Kaiga-3 & 4 2 X 220 U3-Mar 07
U4 – Sep 07
KK-1 & 2 2 X 1000 U1 – Dec 07
U2 – Dec 08
RAPP – 5 & 6 2 X 220 U5 – Aug 07
U6 – Feb 08

***

The best part of the internecine warfare between the ruling Congress party and their BJP predecessors has been the debate over which party gets the boquet for “biggest bunch of colonial lackies.”

The Congress Party claims the BJP offered to place 70 percent of India’s existing capaicty and all new reactors under full scope safeguards in 2002—something the BJP has denied, grumbling that they only offered a “couple of existing nuclear facilities” for full-scope safeguards.

I missed that offer at the time, although I do note a cryptic 2004 reference in India Today to the BJP-led government’s efforts “to ‘sanitise’ [India’s] weapons programme from the power programme” and that “accession to the Additional Protocol in return for an informal admission into the nuclear club is not inconceivable.”

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/986/sixty-freaking-five-percent