Sounds like
YOU -- who claimed to have 'aviation studies' and yet not one post from you about aerodynamics that explain anything worthwhile. Probably you flunked that class, little man.
You think it is easy to reverse engineer anything in the semicon industry?
http://www.semi.org/en/domestic-equipment-suppliers-china-seek-both-semiconductor-and-solar-industry
The time it take to 'qual' or qualify any equipment is about one yr. It does not matter where it came from. The Chinese government can force any Chinese semicon manufacturer to buy domestically, but it will still take at least one yr to qual an initial equipment.
For starter, all fabs started with raised flooring.
https://www.nehp.com/raised-floor-systems.php
The reason is the sensitive nature of these equipment that deals in nanometers. The word is 'seismic', as in isolation of these equipment from any ground disturbances, even from street traffic. Air circulation is crucial, hence the perforated floor tiles, and the entire fab is positive pressurized, meaning the air pressure inside is slightly greater than outside.
Did
YOU or any of your Chinese friends and supporters know that? I know at least one Chinese member of this forum does. But you are as ignorant of semicon manufacturing as you are ignorant of anything aviation related, despite your pretensions otherwise.
Next...
So to 'qual' or qualify any new equipment, the fab manager must make room for it. Most of the time, that mean removing one production readied equipment and the new equipment go in its place. Literally every single wafer that is processed on the new equipment is
NON-SHIPPABLE, meaning the wafer cannot be allowed for sales. So already, weekly wafer out is negatively affected. Buyers, especially major names or 'first tier' clients, do not care what you do, only that you meet your contract obligations. Or they will go elsewhere and leave you with second or third tier customers who will pay less for what you have and you have no choice but to sell at a loss.
It takes months from wafer start to wafer ship for a basic NAND design, let alone something much more complex like a CPU that can compete against Intel or AMD. That mean the new equipment must be running non-shippable wafers for months while waiting for backend test data to see if the wafers that were processed on the new equipment is just as good as from the standard production equipment. Every wafer that processed off the new equipment is literally scrapped. It is only
AFTER executive level review and approval of the new equipment can
NEW wafers be available for sales.
So just because China can reverse engineer something from a Western company, that does not mean it is easy and quickly profitable. A semicon equipment sanction on China
WILL produce negative effects by the second yr because the sanctions will probably include support agreements. That means Chinese equipment engineers will be on their own -- without vendor support. By the third yr, wafer quality will decline per shipment. By the fifth yr, Chinese semicon products will be bought by third tier clients like Joe Schmoe Computah Repairs.
You think am making this up? There is one Chinese member of this forum who will confirm what I said. He used to work for Intel Fab 68 in Dalian, China.
