US strikes at the heart of China's tech ambitions with chipmaker ban

[antonius123]

To be honest, as a Chinese, only in my view,I find it really difficult, very large device and software is made in USA. See if ZTE is blocked, many products can't be generated. Once the blockade of China’s economy will be seriously declining,
Products that the USA need to import is already produced in such as Vietnam etc.
When developing countries move to developed countries, other countries will not make it easy for you to change. In the past 50 years, （as far as I know）only four places have been successful, China Taiwan, China Hong Kong,South Korea, Singapore.So it is not easy ,this is a big test for Chinese leaders.
I hope we can complete the 2025 plan, complete the Belt and Road Initiative, and complete modern technologies such as AI, robotics, big data, and quantum computing etc.Hope our leaders to solve these problems well. and Let China rise

It is not only China that will be difficult, US too.

When we are talking about technology products, Vietnam-Thailand-Malaysia is not in the league. It is giant companies like ZTE, Huawei, Samsung, LG, Lenovo, Xiaomi etc that procure the technology in the big portion from US technology companies.

And if we are talking mobile phone alone, the biggest market share for Qualcomm, Microsoft etc are Chinese vendors. Blockade them means drop of revenue and company value that US suppliers will suffer too. Almost same for other technology products.

And this is not to mention China's retaliation by blocking US from her supply of steels, and outsourcing for hightech goods. Vietnam Thailand Malaysia etc is not ready yet to replace China as source of steels and for high tech outsourcing from US considering immature high tech supply chain environment.

 

[AViet]

It is not only China that will be difficult, US too.

When we are talking about technology products, Vietnam-Thailand-Malaysia is not in the league. It is giant companies like ZTE, Huawei, Samsung, LG, Lenovo, Xiaomi etc that procure the technology in the big portion from US technology companies.

And if we are talking mobile phone alone, the biggest market share for Qualcomm, Microsoft etc are Chinese vendors. Blockade them means drop of revenue and company value that US suppliers will suffer too. Almost same for other technology products.

And this is not to mention China's retaliation by blocking US from her supply of steels, and outsourcing for hightech goods. Vietnam Thailand Malaysia etc is not ready yet to replace China as source of steels and for high tech outsourcing from US considering immature high tech supply chain environment.

American products are now using a lot of Chinese parts and components (and Japanese parts for auto (and many other industries), Korean parts for precise equipment like turbines), not only electronic but mechanical parts as well. Look like now more and more "Made in the USA" products are only assembled in the US, not actually made there.

Recently we received an explanation from an American pump manufacturer for their price increase. They said because of increasing tariff on China imports, the pump parts, which are imported from China, cost higher.

 

[jhungary]

I'm not an expert on anything semiconductor by any means but I think you completely missed the gist of the message of what I said after asking my question...whatever reverse engineering of manufacturing equipment China needed to do has already been done a long time ago. They are now just as innovative as you are and make their own manufacturing equipment for ICs based on the demands of the market.

In other words...they don't really need to import anything any more...

Reverse engineering is out of necessity, not out of profit. If you do reverse engineering, then you are looking to go red on the balance sheet.

Problem, as @gambit suggested, you can of course reverse engineering the whole process, however, that mean 2 things.

1.) You are always going to be one generation behind. Because you can only reverse engineer the current generation, and if you take time to do that, the original company would have developed a newer generation using the time you reverse engineer your stuff.

2.) You will get stuck, because once you reverse engineering, say Intel Processor, would you think Intel will keep their asset in China so you can continue to reverse engineer their work? When that is done, which mean you will get stuck at that stage with the previous generation, don't forget why you reverse engineering someone else stuff to begin with, that is because you cannot make it yourself, just because you did this, the situation has not change, you would still not be able to make your own chips in current status.

Then you need to consider the money you involved, the reputation, lost of productivity, the withdrawal of support for you to develop your own stuff, reverse engineering is not usually done unless you are in such a dired situation that you can overlook all these negative impact to have something reverse engineer yourself.

That is why you don't see Chinese company trying to reverse engineer essential component, such as wafer technology, software technology, and so on, because it make more sense to just buy the license or the product than reverse engineer the same product.