By: Striver44
Nobody ever realized that by letting Taliban ruled over Afghanistan once more, The US not only lifted itself out of the burden of endless counterinsurgency, it also potentially brings a huge geopolitical impact to the two most important US rivals in the region namely Iran and PRC.
Since the US started it's hasty retrogade from Afghanistan 1st of May this year, the Taliban has thus far captured 32 districts while besieging many provinicial capital such as Lashkar Gah, while cutting the main roads from Kabul to Kandahar. Thus if it continue n this trajectory, it will be (in my best estimate) a year or two before the Taliban once again ruled over Kabul.
The Taliban has seized control of dozens of districts in Afghanistan since the start of the international military withdrawal on May 1.
gandhara.rferl.org
By having an puritanical Islamic militants ruling over Afghanistan once more, the relative safety provided by the US +NATO presence in the decade since 2001 would all be over and the geopolitical reality were once more shifting, most notably countries that will be most affected by this is the PRC, Pakistan and Iran.
The Taliban like most islamist militant group despised China, due to the latter mass incarcerations of muslims in Xinjiang, by having Kabul administration replaced by the Talibs, the PRC which lays close . This could in fact affect their BRI projects.
and Beijing realized this and isn't cool either with the prospect.
Beijing [China], May 11 (ANI): China has blamed the United States' "abrupt announcement of complete withdrawal of forces" for the succession of explosive attacks throughout Afghanistan, saying the step has worsened the security situation and has threatened peace and stability as well as people's...
www.aninews.in
you could sense this from their mouthpiece Xinhua, who do some sort of influence operation to keep the US stay in AFghanistan.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-12/24/c_137696107.htm
so does global times
and by their statements from their MoFA,
"At present, the unilateral withdrawal of US and NATO troops at the critical stage of the peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan has brought uncertainties to Afghanistan's domestic situation and regional security landscape. As neighbors,"
also from Hua Chunying:
It needs to be pointed out that the recent abrupt US announcement of complete withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan has led to a succession of explosive attacks throughout the country, worsening the security situation and threatening peace and stability as well as people’s life and safety. China calls on foreign troops in Afghanistan to take into full account the security of people in the country and the region, pull out in a responsible manner and avoid inflicting more turmoil and suffering on the Afghan people.
another plus to having a unstable Afghanistan, is that China for once more need's to ramp up it's land force and increase it's scpe of internal security in Xinjiang, this could increase the cost and burden as China is also facing the Quad alliance currently being propped up by the Biden admin.
China already spent more on internal defense than their external defense, especially since Xi Jinping tightens it's grip on power
Beijing has substantially increased spending on domestic security, reflecting concern about threats inside its borders as President Xi moves to acquire more power and reassert Communist Party authority.
www.wsj.com
On the contrary, now the US could harness all of it's power and resurces against China on a multi theater front, the most notable is the Pacific. The US compared to China, didn't have any significant ideological or military fore right his fence. The US could better use the money and resource originally for it'expense in Afghanistan into building and enhancing alliance in particular the QUAD and keeping ASEAN from ever getting very close to China.
another thing to consider is that once more the US Navy is given priority over the US Army, as the battlefields have now changed from the rough desert and mountains of Afghanistan to the open ocean of the Pacific. This will prioritize long range firepower like hypersonic and ballistic missile, something that China have an advantage over the US until very recently as well as ships and long range aviation.
another potential country that could be affected by the Taliban return to power is none other than Iran, not that Iran shares hundreds of kilometres of border with the Taliban, as history suggest , Taliban which is a Sunni militant group had a natural hatred of the Shiite country next door. Taliban doesn't have a friendly history with both Shiite inside and outside the country.
en.wikipedia.org
also the the likelihood of the Hazaras (an ethnic Shiite) living in Afghanistan getting persecuted by the Taliban could potentially forced Iran to create some sort of Afghan Hezbollah, possibly creating enmity between Iran and the Sunni Pashtun dominated Taliban. Iran could found itself entrenched in a two front conflict with Israel+GCC in the West and Taliban in the East.
@Dalit
