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US ready for the long haul in Afghanistan

Bill Longley

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THE US intends to stay in Afghanistan for the long term, US Defence Secretary Robert Gates vowed yesterday.

Mr Gates said the US would exert an influence on the country long after the combat troops had left.

His comments came as US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that next year there would be parts of the war-ravaged country that would once again be under the control of the Afghan government and its own troops rather than US forces.

The extent of this transition of power would depend on conditions on the ground and would not be based on a specific timetable.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has said he wants Afghan security forces to take responsibility for security in the country by 2014.

Speaking at a press conference in Melbourne following the Ausmin security talks between the US and Australia, Mrs Clinton said: "The strategies that we are implementing together (with Australia) in Afghanistan is the right strategy and we are committed to pursuing that strategy and being very conscious of the challenges that it poses to us.
"The goal is to be able to transition security to the Afghans themselves starting next year, but that transition will be conditions-based and will be determined as the analysis of our commanders in the field suggest to the civilian leadership in both of our countries.

"The progress that we believe is occurring is very challenging, it takes patience, it requires all of us to understand that this is a tough fight that we are in. But we are convinced that starting next year, there will be parts of Afghanistan that will be under the control of the Afghan government and its security forces. We can't tell you when or on what timetable because we will be making those assessments based on the conditions as they occur."

Mr Gates said any notion that the US would withdraw from Afghanistan any time soon was mistaken.

"We are not getting out," he said.

He said that the US would maintain an active presence in Afghanistan long after combat troops had left.

"We are all convinced we have to stay in Afghanistan and remain a partner even after most of our troops are gone," he said.

"We don't see this as a relationship that ends when the security transition is completed."

His comments echo those of Julia Gillard, who said during a parliamentary debate on Afghanistan last month that Australia could be involved in that country for at least another 10 years as military assistance gave way to civil-led aid and development assistance.

In relation to negotiations with the Taliban, Mr Gates said there was "broad agreement" that there needed to be a reconciliation process.

His personal opinion was that the Taliban needed to see its prospects for success had diminished dramatically and "that they may well lose".

"They have to see they are not ultimately going to be successful in taking the country by force," he said.
US ready for the long haul in Afghanistan | The Australian
 
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I predicted in Dec 2009 when all the world was saying that US will leave Afghanistan that I dont see US leaving Afghanistan in Near future. Most of my analysis stand today as a reality

A New Game In Central Asia
OhmyNews
12/14/2009
By Muhammad Bilal Iftikhar Khan
[Printer Friendly Version]

To defeat the Taliban, America must win the Pashtuns.

U.S. President Barak Obama announced his new Afghan troop surge and strategy in his address to cadets at the West Point Military Academy on December, 1 2009. He said the U.S. would send 30,000 troops to Afghanistan and asked NATO countries to send more as well.

The U.S. says it is sending troops to Afghanistan to defeat the Taliban and to train the Afghan National Army. The first contingent will be deployed before Christmas this year.

Although Obama said U.S. forces will start withdrawing in 2011, high ranking US officials including Sectary of States Hillary Clinton, said troop withdrawal will depend upon situation. If the situation worsens, it could be delayed for years.

American officials have made it clear that they think Al Qaeda and the Taliban have sanctuaries in Pakistan. They have specially pointed towards FATA and Balochistan where they think Al Qaida and Taliban leadership is hiding.

Americans have threatened Pakistan, and said they will pursue Taliban and Al Qaeda into Pakistan. Drones will hit Taliban in Balochistan and other settled areas. Although Pakistani forces have achieved success against the TTP, they remain unwilling to hit Haqqani Network and Quetta Shura, which according to them, are threat to American interests in Afghanistan.

U.S. officials have ruled out any nation building efforts in Afghanistan. American troops will only concentrate building ANA and fighting Taliban.


Without going into further details, I will discuss what will be possible reactions from other big players in the region.

First, America is not leaving Afghanistan in next 10 or 20 years. We will see permanent American bases here even if the U.S. withdraws in 2011 as planned.

Looking at the map, which I will call chess board, we see, US CENTCOM headquartered in Qatar with bases in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan and also in Azerbaijan, and other central Asian Countries having full eyes on Russia, China and other important countries. China and Russia are emerging powers competing with US, and Iran's natural resources are nearby, too.

World's second largest oil and gas reserves are present in Central Asia, and keeping Peak oil in mind, the race is on for oil reserves. In words of one of my friend, Mid East and Central Asia are the two weights on a power dumbbell, while Pakistan and Afghanistan are the rod joining the weights. Whoever holds this dumbbell holds it through Pakistan and Afghanistan. Whoever holds this dumbbell is the most powerful in the world.

US interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan are permanent as said many times by American officials. Due to these interests we will not see Americans withdrawal from Afghanistan. According to some senior analysts, US bases at Bagram and elsewhere will remain, even if the U.S. and NATO withdraw, because these bases are a U.S. check on regional powers.

Pakistan has sacrificed more than US and NATO combined in Afghanistan.

Pakistan is the main victim and also the major ally of US in this war on Terror. Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan, which Pakistani Forces are quite successfully neutralizing through military operations in Swat, Malakand, Aurak zai, Kurram and SWA was result of U.S. occupation and criminal discrimination with Pashtuns.

Neither Obama or any other U.S. official has said anything about reoccupying Nuristan and Kunar, from where U.S. troops left in such a hurry that they left their weapons to be used by Taliban. Reports coming from Bajor says that Taliban activates are increasing.

Anti-American sentiments are on the rise in Pakistan. A common Pakistani sees America as an imperial power responsible for the mess in the region. The so called U.S. drone strikes, which the American administration says will increase, have killed more civilians then Taliban or AL Qaeda operatives. According to the New York Times,
Press reports suggest that over the last three years drone strikes have killed about 14 terrorist leaders. But, according to Pakistani sources, they have also killed some 700 civilians. This is 50 civilians for every militant killed a hit rate of 2 percent? hardly "precision." (New York Times 17-5-09)

The U.S. public should understand that the mess in Afghanistan and Pakistan is due to U.S. and NATO forces, and their policies. To defeat the Taliban, America must win the Pashtuns. The Afghan army, which they are so proudly creating, is commanded by non-Pashtuns and is overwhelmingly constituted by non-Pashtuns. This discrimination at every level is taking its toll and a militant movement has turned into ethnic movement.

This troop surge will be taken negative by common Pashtuns. Especially the deployment plan tells that war will be fought with Pashtuns on either side of border.

On other hand, Indian and American interests have proved to be one in Afghanistan. Obama's troops surge is a big victory for Indians. India is developing the Chahbahar port in Iran, and roads through Afghanistan to central Asia and developing schools and hospitals around the roads in Afghanistan linking Central Asia. India also has only one military base outside India and that is in Central Asia.

Sitting in Afghanistan, India is also involved in Terrorism in Balochistan. Recently Pakistani forces have captured 4 trucks carrying Indian Arms. Before capture of these trucks, Shashi Tharoor, Indian Minister of State for External Affair said in an interview that Pakistani nuclear weapons are safe . But immediately after the recovering of Indian Arms the statement changed and Indian foreign ministry spokes women said that they have fear that Pakistani nuclear weapons can fall in militant hands.

Moreover, China has invested thousands of dollars of its tax payers in central Asian oil and gas reserves. It sees the alien American presence in Afghanistan as a direct threat. In globalized world, anything which happens in region effects China and its economy. Secondly, an American presence in Afghanistan means that it, and its ally India, has completed the encirclement of China.

Then there is Russia which had to fight US proxies in Georgia last year over KEEHAN ? BAKU pipeline to safe guard its interests. US presence in its area of Influence is not seen well come by Russians. That is the main reason for growing relations of Russia with Pakistan.

European Union is also one influential actor. France and Germany both have proved reluctant to send more troops in Afghanistan. American unilateralism and demand for sacrifices for its interests from its allies seems to have less effect in the EU.

The EU is emerging as a big economy and has its own strategic perceptions and approaches.

Summing up the whole essay, the U.S. will not leave its bases from Afghanistan. If the U.S. and NATO do not address Pashtun grievances the situation will remain same. Present U.S. strategy was not constructed on keeping in mind the interests of other major players like China and Russia.
e-Ariana - Todays Afghan News

[Opinion] A New Game In Central Asia - OhmyNews International
 
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Its expected, nothing unusual. US didn't came to Afghanistan to just fight Taliban or rebuilding them, there is something more.
 
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Its expected, nothing unusual. US didn't came to Afghanistan to just fight Taliban or rebuilding them, there is something more.

The recent trip of US foreign sectary Hillary Clinton did not surprised anybody. Her body language and talks in Pakistan clearly showed the lack of confidence and shift in strategic chess game in the region. Most of our analysts who became over optimist about Pak-US relationship were taken aback when Ms Hillary Clinton at Point blank said “ That US want access to OBL and Mullah Omer from Pakistan” in other words saying that these two were state guests in Pakistan.
She also diplomatically threatened Pakistan about any future attack originating from Pakistan on US. or if Pakistan fails to tackle Haqqani network. Nearly same kind of things were said by General James john a week prior to Ms Hillary Clintons visit to Pakistan in India. He asked Pakistan to stop Infiltration of Militants in India. Then the same type of allegations and appreciation were heard during Mike Mullen’s visit to India.
Why Pakistan is being pressurized? Whats the game
To understand this entire game first we have to see the strategic chess board and interests of big powers. India not Pakistan is a long term US ally. At strategic level Indian and US interests converge. India is a big market for US and a rival of China. Pakistan on other hand is ally of china its only Importance for US arises due to its strategic location.
The race is on for Euro Asian and Central Asian oil and Gas reserves. Especially when Peak oil is near.US and Russia fought a war in Georgia two years back for the same oil interests.
US is not going to leave Afghanistan in near future which is evident from the fact that it has invested billions in key strategic places in Afghanistan especially in Punjsher Valley a small example is construction of Special operations Base 25 Km away from Uzbekistan border in Amu Darya area in North Afghanistan. According to reports US have acquired 17 acres of land for it and it will will cost 100 million US dollars to construct it . Base will be operational by2012.
On other hand US is facing setbacks in its war in Afghanistan. It’s still in self denial and is failing to acknowledge that Taliban movement has become a Pashtun National Struggle.
Like hype created before Marjah offensive it’s giving impression that clearing NWA will solve its problems in Afghanistan where as its failing to control Paktia and Paktika provinces of Afghanistan bordering NWA which by the way is not fault of Pakistan. It’s using Pakistan as an escape goat for its failures in Afghanistan knowing very well that Pakistan has sacrificed many times more then US and NATO combine and out of 19 Divisions of Army more than 7 are currently involve in counter terrorism operation.Pakistan cannot , right now afford to go into NWA and it will be a suicide to make new enemies for sake of US or any one
At a time When US is continuously accusing Pakistan no body at our side is asking US that why it has given free hand to Taliban to regroup against Pakistan in Nuristan and Kunar Provinces of Afghanistan. This year alone Army twice claimed clearing Bajor and at last had to complain about sanctuaries of Taliban in Afghan areas of Kunar and Nuristan from where US removed its forces a year back on plea of Mc Crystals new strategy.
Pakistani establishment on other hand has also felt the Intensions and game plan of US. President Zardari’s recent trip to china was Part of Pakistan’s counter move to save its national interests. Interestingly an important visit of Mollana Fazalur Rehman to china in April this year was not given full coverage in Pakistani press. Mollana Fazalur Rehman an Influential Islamists leader having great influence both in religious minded Pashtuns was received by Chinese Communist Party. He during his stay was taken to Xinjiang Province and visited Urumqi city which few months ago was battle ground of Uyghur (Muslim)— Han(Chinese) communal Riots. Mollana Fazalur Rehman signed Memorandum of Cooperation in China during his visit.
Things are changing rapidly in the region. Russia and China do not want Prolonged American presence in Region so do Iran. American presence means that continuation of militancy in the region. In fact this militancy is in favor of US as it gives excuses to stay.

India is the only Power in region who wants US to stay that to for its own interest in Central Asia and against china and Pakistan. An analyst rightly commented that Al though US and Pakistan sleep in same bed, they have different dreams. Honey moon period is ending and in near future we will see more pressure on Pakistan and Pakistan shifting more nearer to China and Russia. It’s an Interesting game which will test the resolve and audacity of our leadership and nation.

Chronicles of Abu Abdul Samad: Strategic Game, Changing scenarios.


The Great game in Central and South Asia is entering into new phase. US have acknowledged that they are backing Karzai government in Talks with Taliban. Syed Saleem Shahzad in exclusive story on Asia times on line dated 15 Oct 2010, revealed that Mullah Brader has been released with consent of US regime so that this good will gesture helps further Karzai Taliban Talks. Interestingly first time US top Genral in Afghanistan, Gen. David Patriace on the same day admitted that (his) troops have facilitated the safe passage of Taliban leaders to Kabul for talks with the government. .

At a time when talks are gaining momentum, US has stepped up its campaign against some Taliban fractions especially Haqqani network. The drone strikes in NWA have seen remarkable increase. On the other had US is pressuring Pakistan to Launch a swat type military operation in NWA. Pakistan has so far resisted such operation because Pakistani troops are all ready fighting in many theaters. Operation in NWA will over stretch Pakistani forces resulting, its gains turning into losses. US know that Pakistan cannot afford right now to go into North Waziristan Agency (NWA).

On the other hand US, and NATO has vacated Posts from Kunar and Nuristan provinces of Afghanistan. These areas are hub of proto Salfiest Punjpiries during Afghan jihad these areas were under influence of Arab and Foreign militants. US and NATO withdrawal from these locations have provided safe heaven to militants, who are using them for regrouping against Pakistan. This withdrawal has also resulted in Pakistan’s compulsion in keeping troops for counter insurgency operations in all ready cleared areas.





From the momentum of events and Statements coming from Kabul and Washington it is becoming clear that at one side US, and NATO want a settlement with Taliban. May be its because next year NATO will be completing its 10 years mandate in Afghanistan and it will be difficult for US to convince European Powers to extend the mandate due to growing opposition to Afghan war in Europe. Therefore US want quick results. The pressure against Haqqani network is because of the fact that US wants to talk to Taliban with upper hand. Haqqanies are the most sophisticated amongst Taliban groups. Clipping the wings of Haqqanies will enable US to dictate its terms.

I think from US strategic Posture and construction of its basis in Northern Afghanistan it’s clear that US wants to stay and if Taliban agree on presence of few US bases in Afghanistan then US will have no problem with them .It also appears that in final settlement US will allow Taliban to have influence/ power in Pashtun areas where as non Pashtun areas will serve for US basis to keep an eye on central Asia and especially Chinese dragon.

Will US achieve its goals only time will tell? But one thing is clear it’s not only US wishes which will shape the future, no settlement can be come without the compromise between all major players in the region.

Chronicles of Abu Abdul Samad: Taliban Talks; New Phase in Great Game.
 
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India = > US (Put pressure on Pakistan as much as u can)
Us = > India (buy what ever u want)
India => (ok keep destabliz Pakistan if u want India go for American weapons and American equipment for any field)
US => India (Exactly for that we are doing this..especially 2 objective counter China through India + destablizing Pakistan "Full fill India Isreal" Demand)
 
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India = > US (Put pressure on Pakistan as much as u can)
Us = > India (buy what ever u want)
India => (ok keep destabliz Pakistan if u want India go for American weapons and American equipment for any field)
US => India (Exactly for that we are doing this..especially 2 objective counter China through India + destablizing Pakistan "Full fill India Isreal" Demand)

:blink::blink::blink:
 
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First thing why america gonna leave country that was located next to Pakistan and China .............mainly because of China...:coffee:
 
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India = > US (Put pressure on Pakistan as much as u can)
Us = > India (buy what ever u want)
India => (ok keep destabliz Pakistan if u want India go for American weapons and American equipment for any field)
US => India (Exactly for that we are doing this..especially 2 objective counter China through India + destablizing Pakistan "Full fill India Isreal" Demand)

Just go and sleep
you really need that :lol:
 
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Thats not what going on in reality.

India = > US (Put pressure on Pakistan as much as u can)
Isn't Pakistan asking for same thing from US regarding Kashmir??? US is putting pressure for their own need not because of India asking.

Us = > India (buy what ever u want)
Its business and India has other options as well though its true that some of the US products and technologies are best.
India => (ok keep destabliz Pakistan if u want India go for American weapons and American equipment for any field)
I think India accuse US for giving huge military aid, what about that??? You accuse India for destabilizing Pakistan but now you are accusing US as well.

US => India (Exactly for that we are doing this..especially 2 objective counter China through India + destablizing Pakistan "Full fill India Isreal" Demand)

US is not that good boy to play in the hand of India or Israel. All of the three have their own interests so as Pakistan.
 
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Ofcourse what they really mean is the following:

ed571f9c-364a-4353-8fe3-bdc89303802c


The US army itself will be leaving instead contractors like Haliburton and Guarda will stay behind under the guise of "Advisors" and "Technical Helpers". US DOS has already stated PMCs are vital to it's projects and "interests" in the country.

God bless capitalism.
 
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I predicted in Dec 2009 when all the world was saying that US will leave Afghanistan that I dont see US leaving Afghanistan in Near future. Most of my analysis stand today as a reality...
Sir, may be u took that prediction from Nostradamus, who predicted the same in around year 1555...

From the marine tributary city(Pakistan)*,
the shaven head will take up the satrapy(Afghanistan);
to chase the sordid man(Usama) who will the be against him.
For fourteen years he will hold the tyranny


14+2001 = 2015...!!!
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*Marine Tributary City...
industributaries.jpg
 
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Before we jump to conclusions, let us clarify the points which seem to have led to a misperception that the “U.S”, in its entirety, is withdrawing from Afghanistan in July 2011. As a reader or an author what do you believe the word “U.S” is referring to in your posts? Do you mean U.S advisors, political delegates, nonprofit U.S organizations, combat troops, non combatant troops, development, or security officials? First of all, we need to understand that President Obama was talking about the withdrawal of combat troops from Afghanistan in 2011 and not all political and developmental institutions of the U.S. Your article needs to clarify that U.S means strictly U.S Combat troops. There is a big difference between combatant and non combatant troops.

We have made it clear that owing to the conditions of safety and security the time table for withdrawing combat troops from Afghanistan is set for July 2011. As President Obama and Defense Secretary Gates said before, “It will be based on conditions on the ground but at the same time... we have to build a fire under them, frankly, to get them to do the kind of recruitment, retention, training and so on for their forces that allow us to make this transition.” It is crucial for the safety and stability of Afghanistan, that Afghan security forces are well trained and equipped in dealing with the Taliban and other terrorists in the region. Henceforth, it is equally important for a prosperous and secure Pakistan that the Taliban in Afghanistan are controlled and stopped from crossing the border into Pakistan and vice versa. Our dedication to help the Afghan nation rebuild in sectors of defense, health, infrastructure, education will remain intact. Defense Secretary Gates assured that, “We're not just going to throw these guys (Afghan security officials) in the swimming pool and walk away.” Afghan security forces and military will receive training in counterinsurgency and security so that we can relinquish control to them. Also, we do not want history to repeat as was the case of Afghanistan after Soviet Union’s defeat, when our complete withdrawal left a power vacuum in the country with no proper security or governance. We know the result that came from such move. Only this October the Taliban are responsible for over 300 civilian deaths and injuries caused by indiscriminant violence in Afghanistan. This time our commitment will be long standing so that we can maintain the trust we have built with the Afghans who do not want to be left at the mercy of Taliban’s atrocities again.


LCDR Speaks,
DET – United States Central Command
www.centcom.mil
 
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