Democrats’ early money haul stuns GOP
A historic number of well-funded candidates have flooded Republican House districts ahead of 2018.
By
ELENA SCHNEIDER 10/23/2017
Democratic candidates are reporting historic early fundraising totals, alarming GOP strategists and raising the prospect that 2018 could feature the most expansive House battlefield in years.
Animated by opposition to President Donald Trump and the Republican congressional majorities, at least 162 Democratic candidates in 82 GOP-held districts have raised over $100,000 so far this year, according to a POLITICO analysis of the latest FEC data. That’s about four times as many candidates as House Democrats had at this point before the 2016 or 2014 elections, and it’s more than twice as many as Republicans had running at this point eight years ago, on the eve of capturing the House in the 2010 wave election.
Nearly three dozen Republican incumbents were outraised by Democratic challengers in the third quarter of this year – a stunning figure. Nine GOP incumbents already trail a Democratic opponent in cash on hand, increasing the likelihood that many veteran incumbents will face tough opposition for the first time in years.
The Democrats’ fundraising success, especially from a glut of candidates who have never run for office before, is unsettling to those charged with protecting the GOP majority.
“That’s something that should get every Republican’s attention in Washington,” said Jason Roe, a Republican strategist who works on House races. “These first-timers are printing money."
Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-N.J.), who has never gotten less than 58 percent of the vote in 12 terms in Congress, is among those suddenly facing cash-flush opposition. Three Democratic opponents outraised Frelinghuysen in the third quarter, and each has already brought in more money than any challenger Frelinghuysen has faced in a quarter-century.
In Texas, GOP Rep. John Culberson, whose Houston-area district attracted little attention from either party before Hillary Clinton carried it in 2016, finished the summer with less campaign cash than two different Democratic opponents.
The long slate of well-funded Democratic candidates, coupled with a favorable political environment and poor polling numbers for Trump, is raising Democratic hopes of erasing the GOP’s 24-seat majority.
“The Democrats in 2017 are starting to very much resemble the Republicans in 2009,” said former Rep. Steve Israel, who chaired the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2012 and 2014. “People are talking about a wave developing, but in order to even begin to think about a wave, you have to be in a position to take advantage in [case of] a wave. And Democrats are clearly in that position.”
Many Republican representatives, especially ones battle-hardened from past campaigns, are already preparing hard for 2018 by shoring up their positions. Reps. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) and Barbara Comstock (R-Va.), for example, vastly outraised all of their Democratic challengers in the last quarter as they ready for reelection campaigns in districts Trump lost in 2016.
“The fact that the environment is so intense so early is ultimately a good thing, as it makes sure more members will be prepared,” said Mike DuHaime, a Republican operative. “They can see it coming.”
Republican groups are also raising tens of millions of dollars to help bolster their party. The Republican National Committee in particular has
outstripped the Democratic National Committee, raising over $100 million and building up cash reserves of over $44 million this year, ahead of the 2018 elections. House Speaker Paul Ryan has also raised record-setting amounts of money for House Republicans.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised $8.9 million in September, beating its Republican counterpart for the fifth month in a row. But the National Republican Congressional Committee still has more than $10 million more in its bank account — money that will come in handy across the sprawling battleground, especially if more incumbents retire.
Democrats and Republicans each have a handful of costly, open battleground seats to defend, from Rep. Dave Reichert’s (R-Wash.) suburban district outside Seattle to Democratic Rep. Tim Walz’s rural seat in southern Minnesota.
“Resources will be spread thin because no incumbent — in the primary or in the general — can afford to not take this seriously,” said Roe, the Republican consultant. “We’re just spread thin. That’s our vulnerability, the strain on resources."
That strain was apparent in recent comments by Rep. Glenn Grothman, who represents a solidly Republican block of eastern Wisconsin, easily won reelection in 2016, and has not typically made lists of GOP incumbents vulnerable to a 2018 challenge. Grothman told a
local radio program earlier this month that he’s “very apprehensive about the future,” because “the fundraising is not going as well as I’d like.”
“We’re not raising as much money as we should,” Grothman added.
A week later, his Democratic opponent, Dan Kohl, filed a campaign finance disclosure showing him outpacing the Republican incumbent.
“Clearly there is an intensity among the Democratic base that is similar to what Republicans had in 2009, but it’s hard to tell what it’s going to be like a year from now,” said DuHaime. “But you can’t deny the enthusiasm.”
Stung by over-optimistic projections in past years, Democratic operatives have been careful to avoid declaring a wave on the horizon. With so many candidates piling into crowded Democratic primaries, they worry about their own resources being drained and fear nominees could be pulled too far to the left before difficult general election battles next year.
“It’s way too early to start measuring the drapes,” said former DCCC executive director Kelly Ward, now a top staffer at the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, adding that under the current congressional map, “you need a tsunami, not just a wave, to overcome how badly the [district] lines are broken."
The party’s first order of business in 2018 will be to navigate an unusual number of expensive primaries looming due to the free-flowing money and the opportunity Democrats smell in dozens of districts. In southern California, two of the biggest Democratic self-funders in the country — Andy Thorburn, who loaned his campaign $2 million, and Gil Cisneros, who gave his campaign over half a million dollars — are both running against GOP Rep. Ed Royce, along with a handful of other candidates. Three other districts in Orange County alone are similarly crowded, and drenched in campaign money.
In some primaries, local Democrats are pushing back on national party leaders’ anointment of candidates, as in the fight to take on Rep. Mike Coffman in Colorado. Democrats also expect issues like Sen. Bernie Sanders’ Medicare-for-all plan to divide candidates, and Republicans are ready to pounce on statements that may play well in Democratic primaries but could be damaging in swing-district general elections.
“Nothing beats watching candidates blow their cash trying to explain how progressive they are and how they are ‘still on the fence’ about Nancy Pelosi’s place in their party,” said Jesse Hunt, the press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Israel acknowledged the debates within his party but said he does not believe they will weaken Democratic candidates next November.
“To the extent that there are differences, they are certainly not sapping Democrats’ fundraising abilities, not sapping Democratic recruitment and certainly not sapping Democratic energy,” Israel said. “There may be fissures, but they are not swallowing up our party. The Republicans have fissures that are swallowing up their party.”
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