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US officials who are ready to fight China over Taiwan don't understand how much is at stake

beijingwalker

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US officials who are ready to fight China over Taiwan don't understand how much is at stake
Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis, ret, Defense Priorities
14 hours ago


  • US defense officials are increasingly warning of the potential for conflict with China over Taiwan.
  • There is almost no way in which the US could intervene in that conflict without devastating losses.

Many of America's leading military and political figures have issued increasingly alarmist warnings in recent days about the potential for conflict with China, especially related to issues surrounding Taiwan.

But before the US gets into a crisis that brings it to the threshold of war — or finds itself stumbling into one — policymakers and military leaders need to address some hard realities.

There is almost no scenario in which the United States can successfully intervene in a war between China and Taiwan that will not leave our country in far worse shape than it is right now; in a worst-case scenario, American territory could be struck by nuclear missiles.

In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee last week, Adm. Phil Davidson, commander of US forces in the Indo-Pacific, warned that Chinese military developments looked to him like a nation planning for a war.

Davidson added that he believed China would attempt to forcibly reunify Taiwan "in the next six years." To guard against this possibility, Davidson asked Congress to provide a whopping $27 billion in additional funding over the current defense budget.

Davidson added that he believed China would attempt to forcibly reunify Taiwan "in the next six years." To guard against this possibility, Davidson asked Congress to provide a whopping $27 billion in additional funding over the current defense budget.

The expansion is designed to enhance US' ability to conduct "island-hopping" operations and create the ability to rapidly construct military airfields in austere environments.

The reason for this expansion, Davidson said, was to reduce or eliminate the time necessary for American military forces to engage Chinese targets.

The admiral said that right now it would take US forces on the West Coast more than three weeks to get within range of China and troops from Alaska 17 days. But the "perfect speed," Davidson concluded, was "being there."

Almost entirely absent from the hearing was any explanation of what's driving the United States to elevate the risk of war by increasing the number of troops near the Chinese coast.

As a freedom-loving democracy, the United States is a strong advocate for the independence and freedom of any people, including those in Taiwan. But to that laudable belief must be added a willingness to assess the world in a realistic way.

Right now, both the United States and China are in a spiral in which one side expands its capabilities for war, citing rising threats from the other — which each then offers as justification for yet more military spending and preparation for war.

China is building infrastructure to project its power westward to the first island chain at the same time US forces are moving infrastructure eastward toward the first island chain and Chinese coast. Every day increases the chance of an accident or miscalculation leading to war.

As a freedom-loving democracy, the United States is a strong advocate for the independence and freedom of any people, including those in Taiwan. But to that laudable belief must be added a willingness to assess the world in a realistic way.

Right now, both the United States and China are in a spiral in which one side expands its capabilities for war, citing rising threats from the other — which each then offers as justification for yet more military spending and preparation for war.

China is building infrastructure to project its power westward to the first island chain at the same time US forces are moving infrastructure eastward toward the first island chain and Chinese coast. Every day increases the chance of an accident or miscalculation leading to war.

If the United States were to one day fight China for anything other than an unprovoked attack, we would be choosing a course which would — in the best-case scenario — cause extraordinary harm to our military and markedly degrade our national security; in the worst-case, we could lose a war, putting at risk our very freedom.

It is crucial to understand that for China, the Taiwan issue is not merely a core interest, but an emotionally charged one. They are far more willing to pay extraordinary costs, sacrifice many men, and could risk it all to eventually compel unification with Taiwan. The issue does not directly affect our national security unless we get involved.

If we eventually choose war with China over Taiwan, we will at best suffer egregious losses in ships, aircraft, and troops; in a worst-case, the war could deteriorate into a nuclear exchange in which American cities are turned into nuclear wastelands, killing millions.

America should never take such risks unless our security and freedom are directly threatened. Fighting China for any reason short of that would be a foolish gamble of the highest order.

 
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When war comes their legs turn into spaghetti and they pee in their pants collapsing to the floor unable to stand. To give you an idea, what from the 20:50 mark in this video

 
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US still can easily win this war, but personally I want to see a friendly relationship between China and US specially after the devastation of Covid, if two economical giants fight then smaller countries will suffer .
 
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US still can easily win this war, but personally I want to see a friendly relationship between China and US specially after the devastation of Covid, if two economical giants fight then smaller countries will suffer .
How US can easily win the war? like they did in Korea and Vietnam? Do you know how close Taiwan is to the mainland China?
 
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How US can easily win the war? like they did in Korea and Vietnam? Do you know how close Taiwan is to the mainland China?

Argentina gave Britain a bloody nose at Falklands despite having only 5 anti ship missiles. China is not Argentina. If Americans dare to fight China in Taiwan strait all of their carriers will be sunk and thousands of their service personnel will be killed.

 
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How US can easily win the war? like they did in Korea and Vietnam? Do you know how close Taiwan is to the mainland China?

I know all of the things you mentioned, but there is no point in arguing why I think US can easily win this war, but focus on my other part of post that I want both China and US to work together so smaller countries can come out of financial crisis which devastated so many economies and people's lives.
 
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I know all of the things you mentioned, but there is no point in arguing why I think US can easily win this war, but focus on my other part of post that I want both China and US to work together so smaller countries can come out of financial crisis which devastated so many economies and people's lives.
I agree with the second part, but just don't understand your first part, how can US easily win a war against China at China's doorway? it's just utterly impossible.
China has overriding fire power advantage from both warships and missiles close to China's shore, how can any US military assets survive the saturation attack from both Chinese warships and lands?
Or you mean easily win a nuclear war?
 
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US still can easily win this war, but personally I want to see a friendly relationship between China and US specially after the devastation of Covid, if two economical giants fight then smaller countries will suffer .

It can't. This type of mentality being prevalent among many US officials is actually very dangerous because it will increase miscalculation.

The fact is that most US officials do not understand China nor understand China's capabilities because the threshold for intelligence and education among American politicians is exceedingly low and Americans believe their own propaganda, that's the worst mistake. Dealers should never smoke their own product.
 
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I agree with the second part, but just don't understand your first part, how can US easily win a war against China at China's doorway? it's just utterly impossible.
China has overriding fire power advantage from both warships and missiles close to China's shore, how can any US military assets survive the saturation attack from both Chinese warships and lands?
Or you mean easily win a nuclear war?

As i said, second part of my post was more important to which you agree, and look my friend if in a conflict China or America has to fire a Nuke then its no victory to anyone, because when a nuke is fire in today's world, its all lost .
 
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As i said, second part of my post was more important to which you agree, and look my friend if in a conflict China or America has to fire a Nuke then its no victory to anyone, because when a nuke is fire in today's world, its all lost .
Barring from a nuclear war, US now stands no chance, ZERO chance, to win over China close to the Chinese shore. it's a hard fact they have to swallow.
 
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US still can easily win this war, but personally I want to see a friendly relationship between China and US specially after the devastation of Covid, if two economical giants fight then smaller countries will suffer .
do you know China leads US in Electro Magnatic Spectrum AI infused warfare? Which is the pivot of modern warfare among advanced nations? Do you how that spans out and effect a war?
or mere Missile tech?
 
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Barring from a nuclear war, US now stands no chance, ZERO chance, to win over China close to the Chinese shore. it's a hard fact they have to swallow.

Victory is defined by its objectives, if China initiate a invasion of Taiwan and US came off to rescue and prevent it, it will be considered US victory based on Chinese failure to achieve its Objective, if China succeeded then yes you can claim and rightly so will be your victory but as i said, US is fully capable of Fighting China even within their backyard, US with its full military might still beat China by far, but China is reducing this gap at very fast pace but still a long way to go.

P.S lets not go off topic, have a great day :)
 
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Victory is defined by its objectives, if China initiate a invasion of Taiwan and US came off to rescue and prevent it, it will be considered US victory based on Chinese failure to achieve its Objective, if China succeeded then yes you can claim and rightly so will be your victory but as i said, US is fully capable of Fighting China even within their backyard, US with its full military might still beat China by far, but China is reducing this gap at very fast pace but still a long way to go.

P.S lets not go off topic, have a great day :)

The part of Taiwan closest to mainland China is Kinmen, lying about 10 km from the mainland and nearly 200 km from Taiwan island. The vast majority of US aircraft and ships will be destroyed at Kinmen if the US is to fight. It is too close to mainland China and too far from Taiwan island.
 
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Victory is defined by its objectives, if China initiate a invasion of Taiwan and US came off to rescue and prevent it, it will be considered US victory based on Chinese failure to achieve its Objective, if China succeeded then yes you can claim and rightly so will be your victory but as i said, US is fully capable of Fighting China even within their backyard, US with its full military might still beat China by far, but China is reducing this gap at very fast pace but still a long way to go.

P.S lets not go off topic, have a great day :)

The US could no longer win a war against China



War games suggest the US will lose fast if it confronts China
March.13 2021
The US Air Force simulated a war game against China last autumn, and the results were unsettling for Washington.

The US Air Force simulated a highly classified war game over Taiwan last year, and the way it ended unnerved America's military establishment.

The war game created a future scenario in which a Chinese biological-weapon attack could sweep through American bases and warships in the Indo-Pacific region.

The future confrontation would continue for more than a decade, likely ending with the US on the receiving end of a loss, according to the classified report published by Yahoo News.

The war game carried out by the US has leaked for the first time since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, which spread to the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier and took the US Navy’s most important unit temporarily out of commision.

In the midst of war simulation, actual Chinese combat aircraft crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait in the direction of Taipei 40 times and carried out simulated attacks on the island. It was called “disturbing” by the Taiwan premier.

Amid escalating tension between Washington and Beijing, China’s air force released a video showing a bomb attack on the US Andersen Air Force Base on the US Pacific island of Guam.

The Chinese propaganda video was titled: “The god of war H-6K [bomber] goes on the attack!”

Just four days after President Joe Biden took office, China launched simulated missile attacks on the USS Roosevelt carrier.

On Tuesday, Phil Davidson, the top US admiral for Asia-Pacific, said the US military needs more long-range weaponry in the western Pacific, including ground-based arms.

“A wider base of long-range precision fires, which are enabled by all our terrestrial forces - not just sea and air but by land forces as well - is critically important to stabilize what is becoming a more unstable environment in the western Pacific,” Admiral Phil Davidson told a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing.

Davidson cited enthusiasm by the Army and Marine Corps “to embrace some of the capabilities that the Navy and Air Force have already developed.”

The Biden administration has said the United States intends to compete with China’s growing influence and military strength in the Asia-Pacific. The Pentagon is carrying out a review of its strategy in the region.
Davidson cited enthusiasm by the Army and Marine Corps “to embrace some of the capabilities that the Navy and Air Force have already developed.”

 
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