US may quit Gulf: India's loss, China's gain

[Mosamania]

why do u think im advocating to quit oil imports and use eco friendly fuel like hydrogen and solar and electricity to be used for cars???
And why should i care for ur bread and butter??


if cars around the world run on hydrogen or electricity source ,then global warm will gradually come down and it is good for earth and islamic terrorism will come down as these terrorists get funds by exporting oil....


FOr ur bread and butter we can't push earth to hell!!!

Hahaha so you WANT us to starve??

 

[fd24]

USA are not going to quit the gulf states until there is no need to manipulate the oil demands. Until then they will continue to stroke their egos until the black stuff runs out. Then they will give the middle east to whoever wants it. Simples

 

[anon45]

USA are not going to quit the gulf states until there is no need to manipulate the oil demands. Until then they will continue to stroke their egos until the black stuff runs out. Then they will give the middle east to whoever wants it. Simples

I agree as stated by this administration.

That might not be the case going forward though. The US has huge reserves of now economically viable natural gas, and it has also likely reached or is close to reaching its peak oil needs. With the advent of a natural gas and alternative source fueled economy (electric is the main near term candidate), It would not be surprising to see the US express less and less interest in the Middle East down the line in 10-20 years as it becomes less and less strategically important to the US' interests, perhaps sooner.

You are also definitely right that once the US does not need Middle Eastern oil for an expanding economy, the US will walk away(at least relying on current attitude trends from both sides). The Middle East in general is seen in the public consciousness as a region stuck in the middle ages through its own fundamentalism and cultures of corruption/rule by an iron fist, its only value to our country being, you guessed it, oil.

Caveats to this though are as follows: Egypt will still be seen as a US interest if only because its canal is a European interest, and Israel will remain a joker as there is no telling if they will even be around in 10-20 years even though their future looks very secure today. It is still a very small and geographically vulnerable country, and pro-Israel lobby groups are dedicated to their beliefs, which, more importantly, shows in the voting booths.

 

[fd24]

Agree. What cracks me up is the self proclamation of Saudis that they "have a special relationship" with the USA. Wish they would open their eyes and realize how poorly they are thought of and how nobody would look at them twice if the black stuff ran out. One day the Arabs will wake up ans smell the coffee and perhaps see reality for what it is. You are not clever,you are not smart, you are not funny friends to know, nor are you pleasant hosts - you have O I L.

 

[lem34]

I think america might still keep its hand in to assist israel

 

[gambit]

US may quit Gulf: India's loss, China's gain


The withdrawal of US troops from Iraq by the year-end will probably be followed by a much bigger US withdrawal from the Persian Gulf. Policy analysts have long assumed that the US must have a dominant military presence in the Gulf to secure its oil supplies. But new technologies and oil discoveries suggest that by 2020, the US will import all its oil from the western hemisphere, ending its dependence on the Gulf. That will sharply reduce its strategic interest and spending in the region.

Till now, the US navy has ensured secure oil movement from and beyond the Gulf. India has been a free rider, getting oil security at no cost. China's presence in the region has till now been minimal.

But a US withdrawal, even if partial, will usher in Chinese dominance. India will view that with trepidation.

Bit too alarmist.

First, any alliance depends on moral and physical presence, as in allies actually meet each other in diplomatic and military lines, both to assure each other of their willingness to secure the alliance's interests. Diplomacy is moral. Military is physical. History show this to be true in any era.

Second, the question is can China provide any alliance the same level of physical presence as the US has, as in potency and longevity. The answer is no. Political nature is no different than physical in that politics, domestic or international, abhors any vacuum. The answer cannot be 'not yet' because it assume that rivals, current or past, will do nothing to secure parcel or whole that political vacuum. If the US leave and no one, either a nation-state or an alliance of nation-states, is able to quickly fill that vacuum with at least a reasonably acceptable degree of military potency and promise of longevity, the US can and will return and fill that vacuum faster and with the same degree of military potency, thereby at least delaying rivals from establishing and securing their own long term interests if not outright denying them opportunities altogether.

India's most capable tool right now is no different than that of other powers' tool, past or present, in projecting and securing interests in areas of political vacuums: The Navy. Use it or lose those opportunities.

 

[suryakiran]

Hahaha so you WANT us to starve??

mate... the world oil reserves will last for 50-75 years. So it is better to start working on alternate source of energy.

 

[anon45]

Agree. What cracks me up is the self proclamation of Saudis that they "have a special relationship" with the USA. Wish they would open their eyes and realize how poorly they are thought of and how nobody would look at them twice if the black stuff ran out. One day the Arabs will wake up ans smell the coffee and perhaps see reality for what it is. You are not clever,you are not smart, you are not funny friends to know, nor are you pleasant hosts - you have O I L.

Actually, in general, the bad feelings are mutual from the publics on both sides, and both sides know it. The governments are trying to keep a diplomatic face to address current geopolitical realities.

This also doesn't change that arab and other middle eastern immigrants are welcome to the US with open arms as long as they abide by US rules, and preferably integrate well. We don't ask for people to stop practicing the peaceful tenets of their religion with as much fervor towards their own person as they want, but to reach an understanding that the current physical human life has more of a sense of importance than it probably did in their own country/culture. The individual and individual choice is given higher status, and so they should respect such when it comes to things that offend their tastes and decisions their family members make. People are free to practice their religion as fundamentally as they want on their own person, but when it comes to other people, even family, giving them a real choice is valued.

Of course it would be great if kabuki theatre turned into genuine good feelings, probably following a US exit from the region, but it would also be great if Israeli-Palestinian relations stabilized for the better as well.


ONE VERY IMPORTANT CAVEAT

While I feel I can speak for the general American public perception, I should note that I am probably only speaking of the American view of how the publics of the Middle-Eastern states view the US in general. It is 'common knowledge' that the public of Saudi Arabia in general hates the US, just as it is 'common knowledge' that the public in Pakistan hates the US. If I gave a country such as Jordan, or Oman, it probably wouldn't be public knowledge based on name alone. I am the first to admit I am painting the whole of the Middle-East with a very broad brush, which is why I say 'in general'.