US influence will decline, China will rise and ‘Trump trauma will linger’: report

[beijingwalker]

US influence will decline, China will rise and ‘Trump trauma will linger’: report​

ByFarrah Tomazin​

September 29, 2022 — 4.15pm

Washington: Countries from around the world have virtually no appetite to send troops or weapons to Taiwan if China invades, in apparent contrast to US President Joe Biden’s recent pledge to intervene militarily if the island nation was attacked.

A new report on global trends has also found that people from both sides of the Atlantic predict that America’s influence will drop significantly in the next five years while China rises, partly due to what researchers suggest could be “Trump trauma” in Europe – the lingering effect of Donald Trump’s foreign policy.

“Europeans are looking to what could happen in the US in 2024 [if Trump runs for office and is re-elected],” said Gesine Weber, a policy analyst at the German Marshall Fund, the think-tank that conducted the study.
“That is something that would be very problematic for them, particularly for a country like Germany, which is always reliant on the US as a security guarantee.”

The findings are contained in the latest Transatlantic Trends annual polling project, a yearly survey of US and European public opinion on a range of issues, from foreign policy challenges and the economy, to support for NATO and the rise of other world powers.

The report found that while most nations view the influence of the US in global affairs as positive, only 37 per cent expect the country to be the most influential in five years’ time compared to 64 per cent now.

China’s influence, on the other hand, was predicted to nearly double (from 13 per cent to 25 per cent), and the EU’s would remain relatively steady (from 17 per cent to 15 per cent).

Respondents from the 14 countries surveyed were particularly cautious when asked what actions their country should take should China invade Taiwan, with people from the US among several other nations who wanted their country to only take diplomatic steps.

Only 4 per cent of respondents said they would support sending arms to Taiwan, and just 2 per cent supported sending in troops.

Weber said the lack of appetite to assist Taiwan militarily could simply be geography. “It’s pretty far away for some respondents and they don’t regard it as their conflict, whereas Ukraine is right in their neighbourhood,” she said.

The findings come less than two weeks after US President Joe Biden told 60 Minutes that the US would commit military forces in the event of an “unprecedented attack” by China – a move that would draw Australia into an unwanted future conflict.

Pressed if that would involve US men and women – unlike in Ukraine, where the president has ruled out sending American troops – Biden answered: “Yes”.

While Biden sought to walk back his comments at the United National General Assembly last week, his sentiments, which he has made before, deviate from the traditional strategy used in Washington: to remain ambiguous about the sensitive issue of defending Taiwan.

The Transatlantic Trends annual polling project takes in the views of people from 14 countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, the UK and the US.

Most countries had about 1500 respondents, who were predominantly surveyed between late June and early July 2022.

Democracy is also perceived to be declining, according to the research, particularly in Turkey (where 46 per cent of respondents felt it was in danger); Italy and Poland (both 32 per cent) and the US (30 per cent – 10 points higher than last year).

In somewhat better news for America – and set against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine – most respondents believe that the relationship between the US and Europe will remain stable in the next five years, while more than a quarter believe they will get closer.

US influence will decline, China will rise and ‘Trump trauma will linger’: report

People around the world also have virtually no appetite for war with China if it invades Taiwan, despite Joe Biden’s recent pledge.

www.smh.com.au

 

[LakeHawk180]

I doubt it. You really need democratic systems and a basic sense of ethics to get to where the US is today. You can argue they are unethical, but truth is they are a whole lot more ethical than most of the countries represented on this forum.

Many systems try and fail, like Pakistan and Afghanistan recently. But when it succeeds, you have institutions that know their limits and are robust enough to carry out the national agenda and national priorities without having to back-delegate or second guess. They can act with rigour across all areas, and not limit themselves to the ones the central party decided to focus on this year to boost popularity.

More importantly you have checks and balances that work, so even if someone decides to over-reach, systems exist to replace them without upending the entire country.

 

[beijingwalker]

I doubt it. You really need democratic systems and a basic sense of ethics to get to where the US is today. You can argue they are unethical, but truth is they are a whole lot more ethical than most of the countries represented on this forum.

Many systems try and fail, like Pakistan and Afghanistan recently. But when it succeeds, you have institutions that are robust enough to carry out the national agenda and national priorities without having to back-delegate or second guess. They can act with rigour across all areas, and not limited to the ones the central party decided to focus on this year to boost popularity.

More importantly you have checks and balances that work, so even if someone decides to over-reach, systems exist to replace them without upending the entire country.

Sure..

 

[tower9]

I doubt it. You really need democratic systems and a basic sense of ethics to get to where the US is today. You can argue they are unethical, but truth is they are a whole lot more ethical than most of the countries represented on this forum.

Many systems try and fail, like Pakistan and Afghanistan recently. But when it succeeds, you have institutions that know their limits and are robust enough to carry out the national agenda and national priorities without having to back-delegate or second guess. They can act with rigour across all areas, and not limit themselves to the ones the central party decided to focus on this year to boost popularity.

More importantly you have checks and balances that work, so even if someone decides to over-reach, systems exist to replace them without upending the entire country.

Yes a government run by billionaire sociopaths who control all major parties and politicians and use government policies for their own profit while gaslighting and dividing the population every day is such a great role model.

Btw what is this bullshit about trump trauma? After this nordstream attack, it’s more like dark Brandon trauma.

 

[-=virus=-]

no chance, kung fu movies are cool, some of the food is exquisite,,,, but to be the cultural behemoth that the US is.. soft power wise China is nowhere.. they can try in south east Asia but globally.. it'll be a while.

 

[ozranger]

no chance, kung fu movies are cool, some of the food is exquisite,,,, but to be the cultural behemoth that the US is.. soft power wise China is nowhere.. they can try in south east Asia but globally.. it'll be a while.

It's sea of red globally.

BTW, opposite to the US. China never asks other countries to pick side while the US has to push hard to compete militarily. That says everything about the difference in soft power between those 2 countries.

Watch China Overtake The US As The World’s Major Trading Partner

Map created by Roland Rajah at the Lowy Institute The animated map above shows how quickly China overtook the US to become the largest trading partner for the vast majority of the world's countries. It covers the period between 1980 and 2018 and countries change colour depending on whether they...

merchantmachine.co.uk

 

[-=virus=-]

It's sea of red globally.

BTW, opposite to the US. China never asks other countries to pick side while the US has to push hard to compete militarily. That says everything about the difference in soft power between those 2 countries.

Watch China Overtake The US As The World’s Major Trading Partner

Map created by Roland Rajah at the Lowy Institute The animated map above shows how quickly China overtook the US to become the largest trading partner for the vast majority of the world's countries. It covers the period between 1980 and 2018 and countries change colour depending on whether they...

merchantmachine.co.uk

View attachment 883623

I'm sorry but I must disagree here. The UN folks can vote against all their (USs) all they want but they're very culturally dominant, and din't get there by being the azzholes everyone says they are (horrible mistakes notwithstanding)

 

[Nan Yang]

I doubt it. You really need democratic systems and a basic sense of ethics to get to where the US is today. You can argue they are unethical, but truth is they are a whole lot more ethical than most of the countries represented on this forum.

Many systems try and fail, like Pakistan and Afghanistan recently. But when it succeeds, you have institutions that know their limits and are robust enough to carry out the national agenda and national priorities without having to back-delegate or second guess. They can act with rigour across all areas, and not limit themselves to the ones the central party decided to focus on this year to boost popularity.

More importantly you have checks and balances that work, so even if someone decides to over-reach, systems exist to replace them without upending the entire country.

Errr. No. Talk about the process by all means but do not forget about the reality on the ground.

Good governance is more important that too much electoral democracy.

Chinese government delivers to its people.

 

[Novus ordu seclorum]

Sure..

Better than millions of pent-up humans screaming for freedom from behind building walls, too afraid to say anything against the government in the public.

 

[Menthol]

I think in terms of economy, China will have a larger influence compared with USA.

But in terms of politics, USA has more influence.

The reason is that China never seeks it.

 

[beijingwalker]

Better than millions of pent-up humans screaming for freedom from behind building walls, too afraid to say anything against the government in the public.

Really, but it's still better than taking some years off your lifetime,
Doing nothing is undoubtedly the easiest thing to do for any governments, isn't it?

 

[Novus ordu seclorum]

Really, but it's still better than taking some years off your lifetime,
Doing nothing is undoubtedly the easiest thing to do for any governments, isn't it?

View attachment 883652

In reality, China is not close at all.

Per capita GDP
USA ~ $70,000
China ~ $11,000

China will not be seen as equal to US in influence even if it catches up in wealth and industry because most of the world does not like dictatorship.

 

[beijingwalker]

In reality, China is not close at all.

Per capita GDP
USA ~ $70,000
China ~ $11,000

China will not be seen as equal to US in influence even if it catches up in wealth and industry because most of the world does not like dictatorship.

Dollar based GDP is meaningless now, check out soaring inflation in US, Chines people can save money while Americans have to borrow, the difference of the cost of living is so massive, besides, I never said per capita wise China had matched US already.

 

[Beast]

no chance, kung fu movies are cool, some of the food is exquisite,,,, but to be the cultural behemoth that the US is.. soft power wise China is nowhere.. they can try in south east Asia but globally.. it'll be a while.

Who cares about South Asia? The mass wealth of global lies in ASEAN , North East Asia Europe and North America.

 

[CLUMSY]

Sure..

Many chinese streets look like that too. From what ive seen.