US global dominance 'set to wane' !

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US global dominance 'set to wane' !

US economic, military and political dominance is likely to decline over the next two decades, according to a new US intelligence report on global trends.

The National Intelligence Council (NIC) predicts China, India and Russia will increasingly challenge US influence.

It also says the dollar may no longer be the world's major currency, and food and water shortages will fuel conflict.

However, the report concedes that these outcomes are not inevitable and will depend on the actions of world leaders.

It will make sombre reading for President-elect Barack Obama, the BBC's Jonathan Beale in Washington says, as it paints a bleak picture of the future of US influence and power.


The US will remain the single most important actor but will be less dominant
Global Trends 2025


"The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," says Global Trends 2025, the latest of the reports that the NIC prepares every four years in time for the next presidential term.

Washington will retain its considerable military advantages, but scientific and technological advances; the use of "irregular warfare tactics"; the proliferation of long-range precision weapons; and the growing use of cyber warfare "increasingly will constrict US freedom of action", it adds.

Nevertheless, the report concludes: "The US will remain the single most important actor but will be less dominant."

Nuclear weapons use

The NIC's 2004 study painted a rosier picture of America's global position, with US dominance expected to continue.

But the latest Global Trends report says that rising economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil will offer the US more competition at the top of a multi-polar international system.


NIC REPORT
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The EU is meanwhile predicted to become a "hobbled giant", unable to turn its economic power into diplomatic or military muscle.

A world with more power centres will be less stable than one with one or two superpowers, it says, offering more potential for conflict.

Global warming, along with rising populations and economic growth will put additional strains on natural resources, it warns, fuelling conflict around the globe as countries compete for them.

"Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot rule out a 19th Century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries," the report says.

"Types of conflict we have not seen for a while - such as over resources - could re-emerge."


Such conflicts and resource shortages could lead to the collapse of governments in Africa and South Asia, and the rise of organised crime in Eastern and Central Europe, it adds.

And the use of nuclear weapons will grow increasingly likely, the report says, as "rogue states" and militant groups gain greater access to them.

But al-Qaeda could decay "sooner than people think", it adds, citing the group's growing unpopularity in the Muslim world.

"The prospect that al-Qaeda will be among the small number of groups able to transcend the generational timeline is not high, given its harsh ideology, unachievable strategic objectives and inability to become a mass movement," it says.

The NIC does, however, give some scope for leaders to take action to prevent the emergence of new conflicts.

"It is not beyond the mind of human beings, or political systems, [or] in some cases [the] working of market mechanisms to address and alleviate if not solve these problems," said Thomas Fingar, chairman of the NIC.

And, our correspondent adds, it is worth noting that US intelligence has been wrong before.

Story from BBC NEWS:
BBC NEWS | Americas | US global dominance 'set to wane'

Published: 2008/11/21 11:38:30 GMT

© BBC MMVIII

&RUSSIA All the way

 

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China, Russia Condemn US Missile Defense Plans !

China, Russia sign nuclear deal, condemn US missile defense plans

The Associated Press
Friday, May 23, 2008
BEIJING: China and Russia sharply condemned U.S. missile defense plans Friday, taking a harder common line that reinforces an already strong strategic partnership during Dmitry Medvedev's first foreign trip as Russian president.

Pushing forward their robust energy cooperation, Russia also signed a US$1 billion (€670 million) deal to build a uranium enrichment facility in China and supply low-enriched uranium for use in China's fast-growing nuclear power industry over the next decade.

Rivals throughout much of the Cold War, Moscow and Beijing have forged close political and military ties after the Soviet collapse, seeking to counter the perceived U.S. global domination. They have spoken against the U.S. missile defense plans in the past, but Friday's declaration by Medvedev and Chinese President Hu Jintao sounded tougher than before.

Without naming the United States, the two leaders said that "the creation of global missile defense systems and their deployment in some regions of the world ... does not help to maintain strategic balance and stability and hampers international efforts in arms control and nuclear nonproliferation."

They also warned against the deployment of arms in space in another clear reference to the United States. "The parties stand for the peaceful use of space and against the deployment of weapons in space and arms race in space," Medvedev and Hu said in the statement released after an afternoon of talks.

The joint opposition appears to raise the stakes for Washington, which has been trying to persuade Beijing and especially Moscow not to see the missile shields as threatening. At the same time, the cooperation on diplomatic issues masks deep Russian unease at China's growing power and differences over military and energy sales.

The White House immediately said Friday that it is not disappointed that Medvedev has not changed the firm opposition taken by his predecessor, Vladimir Putin.

"We're going to work with them to work through these concerns, and we think we can resolve any concerns that anyone has about this and the true nature of the program," White House spokesman Tony Fratto said.

Beijing has criticized U.S. plans for anti-missile defenses with Japan and Taiwan in the past, fearing that it would blunt China's large arsenal of missiles. But Beijing has mostly been content to let Russia take the lead publicly, knowing that the planned deployment of missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic touch a core Russian interest.

"I think that now Russia has convinced China that it needs to speak out more clearly and take a position," said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs magazine. "And Russia has gotten what it wanted — I think Medvedev can be satisfied."

The declaration also reflected China's and Russia's strong opposition to NATO's expansion to incorporate ex-Soviet states Georgia and Ukraine. "Security of nations can't be ensured at the expense of other countries through the expansion of military-political alliances," the two leaders said.

After signing the joint declaration with Medvedev, Hu praised the countries' commitment to tackling security issues. "The two sides have always agreed to take the development of strategic cooperation and partnership as a priority," Hu said to reporters.

Hu also thanked Medvedev and Putin, now prime minister, for the mobile hospital and rescue teams Moscow sent after the May 12 earthquake that killed more than 55,000 people in central China.

"Between friends, there can be no other kind of relations," Medvedev said, offering more assistance.

After a slow warming in the 1990s, Beijing and Moscow have in recent years joined together in opposing Kovoso's independence and on Iran's nuclear crisis. The two have held joint military maneuvers on each other's turf and created a regional security grouping, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, to keep the West out of energy-rich Central Asia.

Statements of cooperation and support come aside friction and uncertainties over energy, while the countries' shifting economic and diplomatic fortunes also bedevil ties.

"China still sees Russia as an equal partner, but that view may change as China keep gaining economic and political weight," Lukyanov said. "In five or seven years, Russia may struggle to maintain parity in political relations with China."

But while Moscow and Beijing have pooled efforts in trying to keep the West out of Central Asia, they are rivals in a struggle for control of the region's vast energy riches.

Medvedev's stopover in Kazakhstan on his way to China was apparently intended to send a message to both Beijing and the West that Moscow continues to see the former Soviet Central Asia as its home turf.

Moscow and Beijing also have bickered over the price of Russian energy exports. Disagreements over pricing have slowed construction of an oil pipeline from Siberia and blocked plans for a natural gas pipeline. A separate pipeline to Russia's Pacific coast will force China to compete for Siberian crude with Japan.

China was a major customer for Russian weapons industries, buying billions of dollars worth of jets, missiles, submarines and destroyers. But the arms trade has slumped recently as China wanted more advanced weapons, which Moscow was reluctant to sell.

Media reports said that Russian officials were concerned about China making a copy of the Russian Sukhoi Su-27 fighter after producing them under license.

Sukhoi director, Mikhail Pogosian, refrained from comment on the issue, but stressed the importance of preserving copyright laws.


Associated Press writer Steve Gutterman in Moscow contributed to this report.

http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=13171485

To NATO With Love !

http://thethirdsite.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/china_russia_presidents_2.jpg

 

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China, Russia pledge to strengthen strategic coordination

LIMA, Nov. 23 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Hu Jintao said Sunday that China and Russia should strengthen strategic coordination at a time when the global political and economic structures are undergoing the most profound changes since the end of the Cold War.

Hu made the remarks at a meeting with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev on the sidelines of the 16th Economic Leaders' Meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Lima, Peru.

China and Russia should make concerted efforts to overcome the impact of the ongoing global financial crisis, maintain the sound momentum of their economic growth, and push ahead with reforms of the international financial system, the Chinese president said.

Hu also called for efforts to earnestly carry out the outline on implementing the Sino-Russian Good-Neighborly Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation.

The two nations should enhance consultation on strategic security, and conduct timely exchanges of views on major international and regional issues and coordinate their positions, Hu said.

On issues related to their core interests, China and Russia should continue to strengthen mutual support and coordination, he added.

Efforts should also be made to combine the development of the Sino-Russian strategic cooperative partnership with market-oriented policies, so as to further promote their pragmatic cooperation in various fields, he said.

As for the Six-Party Talks on the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula, Hu urged relevant parties to continue to strengthen coordination and cooperation, push forward the talks and strive for the gradual establishment of a mechanism for peace and security in Northeast Asia.

He expressed China's support for Russia's role as an initiator in the establishment of the mechanism, adding that the two countries should also enhance coordination in promoting regional economic cooperation.

Medvedev said the two countries should strengthen strategic consultation on issues relating to peace and security across the world and in the Asia-Pacific region.

Russia is willing to strengthen consultation and cooperation with China in jointly coping with the global financial crisis, the Russian president said.

The financial departments of the two countries could hold a meeting at an appropriate time to discuss how to implement the results of the financial summit of the G20 held a week ago in Washington and those of the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting, he said.

On the Six-Party Talks, the Russian president said relevant parties should properly handle their differences and make efforts to push forward the talks and promote peace and security in Northeast Asia.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-11/24/content_10401918.htm

 

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Chinese, Russian FMs pledge to boost bilateral relations


LIMA, Nov. 23 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov held talks here on Sunday and pledged to push ahead with relations between their two countries.

The two ministers, who are here for the annual forum of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), said the Sino-Russian strategic cooperative partnership has maintained a sound momentum of development this year.

China and Russia have achieved breakthroughs in their pragmatic cooperation and continued to deepen their strategic cooperation, they said.

The two important meetings between Chinese President Hu Jintao and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in Washington and Lima have injected new impetus into bilateral relations and cooperation in international affairs, the ministers said.

They agreed that China and Russia should make concerted efforts to implement consensus reached by the two heads of state, maintain exchanges of high-level visits, deepen mutual political trust, and continue to firmly support each other on issues related to their core interests.

Yang and Lavrov also agreed that the two countries should boost their pragmatic operation and enhance coordination in international and regional affairs.

Chinese, Russian FMs pledge to boost bilateral relations_English_Xinhua

 

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Are Iran, Russia, China
behind dollar's free-fall ? !

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Are Iran, Russia, China
behind dollar's free-fall?
Some see 'Currency Cold War'
meant to bring U.S. to its knees

WASHINGTON – The hottest selling book in China right now is called "Currency Wars," which makes the case that the U.S. Federal Reserve is a puppet of the Rothschilds banking dynasty and it has persuaded some top officials Beijing should resist America's demands to appreciate its own undervalued currency, the yuan.

This might not be news of concern to most Americans if the U.S. dollar were not in precipitous free-fall, having reached record lows against the euro yesterday.

What would it mean if China ever threw its economic weight around by dumping dollars in a major way?

Suffice it to say it is referred to in some quarters as China's financial "nuclear option," because it would be the economic equivalent of detonating a thermonuclear weapon in the world's financial markets.

But the American dollar's fate is hardly in the hands of the Chinese alone. Other foreign parties suspected of participating in a new "Currency Cold War" are Iran, Russia and Venezuela.

Diane Francis, a financial reporter for the National Post in Canada, says it plainly and boldly: "There is a Currency Cold War being waged by Russia, Iran and various allies such as Venezuela."

The grand strategy being engineered by Vladimir Putin, she writes, is to force the use of euros as the international monetary standard as a transition to the Russian ruble.

"This is simply a monetary version of the old Cold War, minus the missiles," she writes.

Experts don't see any short-term reprieve for the falling value of the dollar. Kathy Lien, chief currency strategist with DailyFX.com in the US, told Bloomberg she expects the American dollar to slide even further, forcing more lending rates cuts in the U.S. to stave off recession.

"It seems like every single passing day we have a new record low in the dollar, and a new record high in the euro, and it's driven by the fact that U.S. data is continuing to deteriorate," she said.

If other nations do not follow the U.S. in cutting rates, the slide in the value of the dollar would most likely continue.

If the dollar trend continues spiraling downward, the risk is that nations like China – or Japan or Saudi Arabia – which have been buying U.S. Treasury bonds and thereby funding America's deficit, would stop that practice.

That would be the nuclear option.

China, with $1.3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves as a result of the massive and growing $260 billion U.S. trade deficit, has taken huge losses with the falling dollar, given that some 80 percent of China's $1.3 trillion in foreign reserves is held in U.S. dollar assets, largely in U.S. treasury securities.

Meanwhile, Song Hongbing, the author of China's runaway bestseller, "The Currency Wars," says he's pleasantly surprised at the 200,000 copies his book has sold. He is probably not eager to see the dollar punished as he lives in Washington, D.C.

"I never imagined it could be so hot and that top leaders would be reading it," he says during a book tour in Shanghai. "People in China are nervous about what's going on in financial markets, but they don't know how to handle the real dangers. This book gives them some ideas."

Among the research findings that shocked him most was that the Fed is a privately owned and run bank.

"I just never imagined a central bank could be a private body."

Some, meanwhile, are standing on the sidelines cheering the currency wars – seeing them as a way of reducing the power and influence of the "imperialistic" U.S.

Rohini Hensman, who describes himself as "independent scholar, writer and activist based in India and Sri Lanka," says it's about time the U.S. got its comeuppance.

"As the bombs started falling on Iraq in 2003, I wrote and circulated an appeal entitled 'Boycott the Dollar to Stop the War!,' arguing that although the military strength of the U.S. was enormous, its economy was in a mess; with a massive gross national debt, the only reason it could finance its foreign wars and occupations was because of the inflow of over a billion dollars a day from countries accumulating foreign exchange reserves in dollars because it was the world's sole reserve currency. The denomination of the oil trade in dollars made it additionally desirable. With the advent of the euro, however, there was the possibility of an alternative world currency; therefore individuals, institutions and countries opposed to the war on Iraq should refuse to accumulate dollars or use them outside the U.S., because these were activities that helped to finance U.S.-Israeli aggression against Palestinians, Iraqis and Afghanis. After the World Social Forum meeting in 2004, the Boycott Bush Campaign adopted the dollar boycott as part of its strategy."

In early trading today, the dollar advanced slightly, prompting gold prices back from 28-year highs set yesterday. The dollar's value against a basket of six major currencies rose slightly to 77.950 from a lifetime low of 77.657 a day earlier. The dollar traded at $1.4223 per euro, stronger than a record low on Monday of $1.4283.

WND has reported the Federal Reserve is in a dilemma.

The stock market has demanded rate cuts, wanting to return to the free credit policies of the Federal Reserve that fueled the liquidity bubble that has boosted home prices and pumped the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 9/11.

Yet, the Fed giving in to stock market demands and lowering rates threatens an international dollar sell-off that could lead to a dollar collapse.

Former Fed Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan also sparked controversy by suggesting in his recently published book, "The Age of Turbulence," the euro is rivaling the dollar as the international foreign exchange reserve currency of choice.

The Wall Street Journal recently quoted a rule of thumb advanced by Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund. According to Rogoff’s "back-of-the-envelope" calculation, a 20 percent drop in the dollar's exchange value reduces Americans' income by 3 percent, adjusted by inflation
Are Iran, Russia, China behind dollar's free-fall?

 

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trust me this is the time for pakistan to take advantage of this blessfull new Emerging geo-strategic situation