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Bingo point has past?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bill-gross-calls-fed-mother-all-ponzi-schemes-says-30-year-bond-market-ending

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-tipping-point-has-arrived

I believe we have finally breached the tipping point in the socio-political landscape of the United States of America. There will be no going back from here. Everyone on all levels of society including the elites must make a choice. Will you stand for real reform and an end of the feudalistic rule of the oligarchs and their paid-off puppets that line the streets of Washington D.C., or will you keep your mouth shut and play the old and dying game in the context of a completely different cultural environment?

While many will disagree with what I am about to say, I believe the oligarchs and the Federal Reserve have already lost.

This will not be clear to the vast majority at this time because the powerful institutions that dominate and rob us will continue to fight for survival but the wind is already blowing in a different direction and cannot be reversed. The smart elites are starting to see this and are hedging their bets. The dumb or stubborn ones may want to start looking at countries with non-extradition treaties or start blowing the whistle on someone above them and fast. The window of opportunity to make the choice is closely quickly. “I was just following orders” will not cut it when the dollar collapses and Disneyland shuts down. There have not been any major arrests and people have seemingly gotten away with all their frauds and crimes. This too will change and 2011 will represent a change in trend in this regard. We have entered the terminal phase of this ponzi scheme economy and those responsible for its creation and its continued support at the expense of the vast majority of the populace will see their foul deeds rise to the surface.

Earlier this year I wrote two piece that I think are worth re-reading and I have attached links to them. The first was “A Time to Speak Out” A Time To Speak Out | zero hedge and the second was the “The Elites Have Lost the Right to Rule” The Elites Have Lost The Right to Rule | zero hedge. When I wrote these articles many of the themes addressed were completely out of the mainstream, yet in an amazingly brief period of time many of the frustrations I voiced are now popping up everywhere I look. It’s strange and rewarding to see the topics I and countless others have been discussing on the “fringe” break into the light of day. Now that these concepts are out there is no stopping the avalanche that is about to hit the oligarchs smack in the face. As Gandhi said “An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it.”

This brings me to discuss what I think is one of the most important letters from an elite I have seen in 2010. I am referring to Bill Gross’ most recent piece. Now when I say he is an “elite” I am not saying he is part of some vast conspiracy to turn us further into serfs. What I mean is he is one of the most fabulously wealthy people in America. He also happens to have made his fortune in the financial services industry and runs the country’s largest bond fund. This is a person that has every reason and incentive to play nice with the other elites and their corrupt institutions at the top of which lies the Federal Reserve banking cartel. What he did in his latest letter was far from “playing ball.” Here are some of the notable quotes and the entire letter can be found here PIMCO | Investment Outlook - Run Turkey, Run.

“Was it relevant in 2004 that John Kerry was or was not an admirable “swift boat” commander? Will the absence of a mosque within several hundred yards of Ground Zero solve our deficit crisis? Is Christine O’Donnell really a witch? Did Meg Whitman employ an illegal maid? Who cares! We are being conned, folks; Democrats and Republicans alike.”

“Perhaps, as a vocal contingent suggests, our paper-based foundation of wealth deserves to be buried, making a fresh start from admittedly lower levels. The Fed, on Wednesday, however, will decide that it is better to keep the patient on life support with an adrenaline injection and a following morphine drip than to risk its demise and ultimate rebirth in another form.”

“Check writing in the trillions is not a bondholder’s friend; it is in fact inflationary, and, if truth be told, somewhat of a Ponzi scheme. Public debt, actually, has always had a Ponzi-like characteristic.”

“The Fed, in effect, is telling the markets not to worry about our fiscal deficits, it will be the buyer of first and perhaps last resort. There is no need – as with Charles Ponzi – to find an increasing amount of future gullibles, they will just write the check themselves. I ask you: Has there ever been a Ponzi scheme so brazen? There has not.”

Ok, so what is Bill Gross up to you ask? I will give you my two cents. This guy is not as fabulously wealthy as he is for being a dope (although this cannot be said for a lot of people in this industry that are merely financial engineers that would become extinct overnight without 0% interest rates but that’s another story). Bill Gross sees the writing on the wall. He see the winds of change and is hedging his bets. He is throwing out a carrot to those that criticize the completely corrupt and ponzi scheme economy and financial system we have today which benefits only those that speculate on the taxpayers dime. We could end this fake and destructive economy by ending the Fed in its current form (at the very least everything they do must be transparent) and restoring the rule of law. He attacks the false left/right paradigm and rightly points out that both the Democrat and Republican establishment have sold out the people to line their own pockets. In the second quote he actually explores the notion that “our paper-based foundation of wealth deserves to be buried.” Then finally he points out what many others have but almost no one is the mainstream ever admits. The U.S. government is running a giant ponzi scheme with regard to its debt. Hmmm do you want to own gold or treasuries?

Truth be told, what Bill Gross did in this letter is to create the ultimate hedge for himself. He didn’t say these things earlier when they were just as true as they are today and certainly must have been clear to someone of his intelligence. He said it now. He said it now because he can see the writing on the wall. The important thing is not that he ultimately defends what the Fed is doing (which he unfortunately does) but that he felt the need to hedge himself and distance himself from the system. As he writes in the final paragraph, “We haven’t been around for 35+ years and not figured out a way to avoid the November axe. We are a survivor and our clients are not going to be Turkeys on a platter.” Indeed, the axe is going to fall on the oligarchs and if you don’t want to be a turkey on a platter you had better choose sides and fast. As the great Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote in his 1836 essay Nature, “There are new lands, new men, new thoughts. Let us demand out own works and laws and worship.” Well said sir, well said.
 
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And Europe strikes back...

US Policy 'Clueless': German Finance Minister
GERMANY, CLUELESS, QUANTITATIVE EASING, QE2, FED, FEDERAL RESERVE, SCHAEUBLE
Reuters
| 05 Nov 2010 | 08:32 AM ET

Europe needs to strengthen economic governance and agree on a permanent crisis resolution mechanism, all the more so given current U.S. economic weakness, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Friday.

Speaking at a conference in Berlin, Schaeuble took issue with the European Central Bank's reluctance to support both a permanent structure to prevent future economic crises and strengthen the European Union's budget rules.

"I am of the opinion, and I know (ECB President Jean-Claude) Trichet doesn't agree with me, we in Europe cannot do without a crisis management mechanism on top of a strengthened stability and growth pact," Schaeuble said.

Replacement of the current mechanism, set up in the wake of the Greek debt crisis to prevent it from spreading and to help stabilise the euro currency, was on track and would likely not disturb financial markets, he argued.

"I believe we are on track to developing a reasonable mechanism in the EU ...
Market participants have long anticipated and are expecting it," Schaeuble said.

Germany has pushed for a replacement of the programme, which expires in 2013, and increased economic coordination in the EU — a goal advanced last month when plans it put forward with France to make limited changes to the bloc's treaty and tighten budgetary rules gained approval.

France and Germany should maintain their leadership role in Europe, Schaeuble said, especially in order to harmonise its economic policy and bolster stability given current economic uncertainties.

These are being worsened by reckless policy in part from the the United States, Schaeuble said, sharpening his criticism of the Federal Reserve's program to buy an additional $600 billion worth of U.S. government bonds.

Pumping more money into the economy will not solve the country's problems, he said, adding that the world needed U.S. leadership that was currently lacking.

"With all due respect, U.S. policy is clueless," Schaeuble said. "(The problem) is not a shortage of liquidity. It's not that the Americans haven't pumped enough liquidity into the market."

Late on Thursday, Schaeuble said Germany would take up this point critically with the United States both bilaterally and at next week's G20 summit of industrialised and emerging nations.

Aside from the G20, international economic coordination could prove nimbler in a smaller framework, Schaeuble said.

"The G11, a combination of the G7 (industrialized) and BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) could become an instrument with which we gain capability to act."
Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters. Click for restrictions.

URL: News Headlines
 
No need to remind the americans of their coming economic collapse. When it comes, they'll be totally unprepared. unprepared people panic. panic leads to civil war. a civil war in a nuclear armed nation that also has some of the highest rates of crime in the world and with the largest prison population in the world would likely lead to the complete dissolution of the US as a nation.
 
below_freezing said:
No need to remind the americans of their coming economic collapse. When it comes, they'll be totally unprepared. unprepared people panic. panic leads to civil war. a civil war in a nuclear armed nation that also has some of the highest rates of crime in the world and with the largest prison population in the world would likely lead to the complete dissolution of the US as a nation.
Click to expand...

I think a lot of "normal" US citizen with the cash are getting themselves prepare, have been preparing. Ammo, MRE, etc.

MSM presents a picture that deliberate ignore the financial reality facing the US or understates it. I would say the military people are the ones not prepared. They talk as if its biz as usual.

But "suppression" fire from threads like this will reinforce morale on the "other" (non Pax Americana) side.

What's left is to spark inflation into US cost of living. And even this, it will be self inflicted.
 
Igor Panarin predicted that the US would break into six distinct regions BY MID 2010...!!!
 
well, the Fed can "take hostage" the rest of the world as long as the USD is the reserve currency and it can enforce it by denominating the price of oil in USD.

however, if oil producers denominate in other currency (there has been talk of a gulf currency) then all bets are off.
 
If this Warsh can influence policy enough to alter the present course it will not be good for us Chinese.

Betting On An Infinite Bernanke Put? Not So Fast, Says Fed Governor Kevin Warsh | zero hedge

Last week's Op-Ed du semaine was Ben Bernanke's WaPo glowing endorsement of the Fed market put, whose sole purpose was to remind stocks, which ended up drooping on the day QE2 was announced, that Bernanke will stop at nothing to achieve his now primary goal (as loosely interpreted under the Fed's broad, and unsupervisable, mandate) - surging stock prices. This week, however, may likely belong to Fed Board Governor, and former member of the President's working group on capital markets, Kevin Warsh. In an Op-ed just released in the WSJ, Warsh, whose series of accomplishments include being the youngest ever appointee to the Fed BOD at 35, and being married to Jane Lauder of Estee Lauder fame, writes "Lower risk-free rates and higher equity prices—if sustained—could strengthen household and business balance sheets, and raise confidence in the strength of the economy. But if the recent weakness in the dollar, run-up in commodity prices, and other forward-looking indicators are sustained and passed along into final prices, the Fed's price stability objective might no longer be a compelling policy rationale. In such a case—even with the unemployment rate still high—we would have cause to consider the path of policy. This is truer still if inflation expectations increase materially." Translation: if gold continues to exhibit a beta > 1 w/r/t ES, then we are screwed, and all Fed policies will have failed. Elsewhere, look for most commodities to open limit up again tomorrow for the nth day in a row as inflation expectations continue to "increase materially" and more and more Fed members understand just what Warsh is saying.

Much more in this surprisingly austere statement by one of the fresher voices at the Fed:

On focusing on the "seller" in the critical economic equation which the Fed now believes is only defined by end consumer demand, a premise that was thoroughly destroyed earlier by Sean Corrigan:

Policy makers should take notice of the critical importance of the supply side of the economy. The supply side establishes the economy's productive capacity. Recovery after a recession demands that capital and labor be reallocated. But the reallocation of these resources to new sectors and companies has been painfully slow and unnecessarily interrupted. We are feeling the ill effects.

On austerity: look for Krugman and fluffer DeLong to go apeshit over this:

Fiscal authorities should resist the temptation to increase government expenditures continually in order to compensate for shortfalls of private consumption and investment. A strict economic diet of fiscal austerity has greater appeal, a kind of penance owed for the excesses of the past. But root-canal economics also does not constitute optimal economic policy.

On consumer deleveraging:

The deleveraging by our households and businesses is not a pattern to be arrested, but good prudence to be celebrated. Larger, more liquid corporate balance sheets and higher personal saving rates are the reasonable and right responses to massive government dissaving and unpredictable government policies. The steep correction in housing markets, while painful, lays the foundation for recovery, far better than the countless programs that have sought to subsidize and temporize the inevitable repricing. It is these transitions in our market economy—and the adoption of pro-growth fiscal, regulatory and trade policies—that lay the essential groundwork for greater, more sustainable prosperity.

Stunningly insightful words for a Fed member. They beg the question, however, why was consensual restructuring not on the table when TARP was being proposed? As we have said so many times, the US banks would not have collapsed had their balance sheets been reorganized, even as their operations continued (totally separate from bank liabilities). Now it is too late, which is why a reversion will necessarily require a complete financial reset, and all those who are calling for a methodological process to go back to where we were in the days of late September 2008, when there still was hope, are naive idealists. In this context a return to a gold standard would not make sense at the current price of gold... It would, however make sense, were gold to be priced at around $5,000, or more.

Yet the most stunning tidbit of clarity and lucidity by Warsh is the following:

Last week, my colleagues and I on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) engaged in this debate. The FOMC announced its intent to purchase an additional $75 billion of long-term Treasury securities per month through the second quarter of 2011. The FOMC did not make an unconditional or open-ended commitment. I consider the FOMC's action as necessarily limited, circumscribed and subject to regular review. Policies should be altered if certain objectives are satisfied, purported benefits disappoint, or potential risks threaten to materialize.

Lower risk-free rates and higher equity prices—if sustained—could strengthen household and business balance sheets, and raise confidence in the strength of the economy. But if the recent weakness in the dollar, run-up in commodity prices, and other forward-looking indicators are sustained and passed along into final prices, the Fed's price stability objective might no longer be a compelling policy rationale. In such a case—even with the unemployment rate still high—we would have cause to consider the path of policy. This is truer still if inflation expectations increase materially.

The Fed's increased presence in the market for long-term Treasury securities poses nontrivial risks that bear watching. The prices assigned to Treasury securities—the risk-free rate—are the foundation from which the price of virtually every asset in the world is calculated. As the Fed's balance sheet expands, it becomes more of a price maker than a price taker in the Treasury market. If market participants come to doubt these prices—or their reliance on these prices proves fleeting—risk premiums across asset classes and geographies could move unexpectedly.

The last sentence is the ultimate kicker as it captures precisely what will happen when the realization that things are slipping outside of the Fed's control spill over to Wall Street (and then to MainStreet). As Warsh says: "The Fed can lose its hard-earned credibility—and monetary policy can lose its considerable sway—if its policies overpromise or under deliver." As the bulk of the world, and the vast majority of the population already have no faith in the Fed, the acknowledgement that this process can capture everyone, including a ponzified Wall Street, whose fortunes are embedded in the proper functioning of the Fed, should be cause for huge alarm. Since if even the Fed realizes that the risk that the world will look beyond the fake price facade created by Bernanke exists, it is only a matter of time before the transition from hypothetical to real is completed.

As Warsh's words resound with more members of the FOMC and Fed BOD, and especially as 3 new hawks join the voting ranks next year, not to mention Ron Paul's new role, all those betting that "EVERYTHING" will go up under QE2/3/4/etc, may want to promptly reevaluate their thesis...
 
Even the Brits are so 'pleased' with their former colonists.
They are shading the news reports a little negative I dare say.

I will italicised the "shadings".

FT.com / Global Economy - Germany attacks US economic policy

FT.com / Global Economy - Germany attacks US economic policy

Germany attacks US economic policy

By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt

Published: November 7 2010 16:28 | Last updated: November 7 2010 16:28

Germany has put itself on a collision course with the US over the global economy, after its finance minister launched an extraordinary attack on policies being pursued in Washington.

*what so extraordinary, it be common place when the food riots due to FED exported inflation starts occurring and wow terms like collision course, rather dramatic. Obama and the USA will be so loved.

Wolfgang Schäuble accused the US of undermining its policymaking credibility, increasing global economic uncertainty and of hypocrisy over exchange rates. The US economic growth model was in a “deep crisis,” he also warned over the weekend.

His comments set the stage for acrimonious talks at the G20 summit in Seoul starting on Thursday. Germany has been irritated at US proposals that it should make more effort to reduce its current account surplus. But Berlin policymakers were also alarmed by last week’s US Federal Reserve decision to pump an extra $600bn into financial markets in an attempt to revive US economic prospects through “quantitative easing”.

On Friday, Mr Schäuble described US policy as “clueless”. In a Der Spiegel magazine interview, to be published on Monday, he expanded his criticism further, saying decisions taken by the Fed “increase the insecurity in the world economy”.

“ They make a reasonable balance between industrial and developing countries more difficult and they undermine the credibility of the US in finance policymaking.”

Mr Schäuble added: “It is not consistent when the Americans accuse the Chinese of exchange rate manipulation and then steer the dollar exchange rate artificially lower with the help of their [central bank’s] printing press.”

*Ooo, some is saying the pot is calling the kettle black.

Germany’s export success, he argued, was not based on “exchange rate tricks” but on increased competitiveness. “In contrast, the American growth model is in a deep crisis. The Americans have lived for too long on credit, overblown their financial sector and neglected their industrial base. There are lots of reasons for the US problems – German export surpluses are not part of them.”

*so the world is not cheating the US of growth, amazing revelations!

There was also “considerable doubt” as to whether pumping endless money into markets made sense, Mr Schäuble argued. “The US economy is not lacking liquidity.”

On the future of the eurozone, Mr Schäuble confirmed in the same interview that Berlin will push for a greater private investor involvement in future bail-outs. To ensure German taxpayers faced the smallest possible burden it was important to have the possibility of an orderly debt restructuring with the participation of private creditors, he said.

Germany’s proposals for a planned new rescue mechanism have run into resistance from the European Central Bank, which fears they will add to investor uncertainty at a crucial time for Europe’s 12-year old monetary union. Mr Schäuble said the new mechanism would apply only to new eurozone debt but argued the European Union “was not founded to enrich financial investors”.

Mr Schäuble envisaged a two-stage process in a future crisis. The EU would put in place the same sort of saving and rescue programme as imposed this year on Greece. In a first stage, the term structure of government debt could be extended. If that did not work, then in a second stage, private creditors would have to take a discount on their holdings. In return, the value of the remainder would be guaranteed, Mr Schäuble said.
 
Andy Xie expects dollar to collapse in 2012.

To Hell Through QE | China International Business

The world seems full of smoke ahead of a world currency war. The weapon of choice is quantitative easing (QE). If you print a trillion, I'll print a trillion. No change in exchange rate after a trillion? Let's do it again, QE2. If you listen to people like Geithner, the end of the world is quite near. Rich people everywhere, not just the Chinese, are buying gold for peace of mind. When the currency values vanish in a QE melee, the rich at least have the gold to stay rich.

If you listen to American pundits, politicians or government officials, it's all China's fault. China is far from perfect - its currency policy certainly isn't - but it is not the cause for the world's ills. The US is by far the biggest source of uncertainty and the initiator of the QE war. Its elite created the biggest financial bubble since 1929, even removing regulations designed to prevent it, and left the US economy in a shambles after it burst. The same people want to find a quick cure to hold onto their power. Unfortunately, there isn't one.

The US has cut interest rates to zero and run up budget deficits to 10% of GDP. It's shock-and-awe Kenyesian policy. But, after a few quarters of strong growth, the economy is turning down again. Unemployment remains close to 10% (and would be much higher, close to Spain's 20%, if the data included the underemployed and those who have stopped looking for work). The stimulus has failed.

How should one interpret the result? If you were Paul Krugman, you would say it wasn't enough. Of course, if 20% of GDP in budget deficit and another round of QE still doesn't work, he would say again it's not enough. You can never prove Krugman wrong.

The second interpretation is that it takes time for the economy to heal. No economy has recovered quickly after so big a bubble - during such a prolonged and massive bubble, resources become so misallocated that it takes a long time for reallocation, particularly in the labor market.

The third interpretation is that it's China's fault. Yes, China's exports to the US rose sharply during its stimulus-inspired pickup, i.e., the stimulus partly went to China. But, whose fault is that? Apple makes all its iPhones in China because it costs them under USD 20 each, even after recent massive wage increases for Chinese workers. Apple's gross margin is 30 times the processing cost that goes to China. Maybe Apple is an extreme example but the fact is that China's exports to the US are American goods that retail for 3-4 times of the factory-gate prices. American companies want to make their goods in China to satisfy the stimulus inspired demand.

People like Geithner would argue that China should raise its currency to force American companies to move production back to the US. I suppose that that is how the whole RMB appreciation idea may work. But, at what exchange rate would the American companies want to do it? American wages are ten times China's. Should China increase its currency value ten times?

Of course, the American pundits wouldn't put it that way. They would talk about China's trade or current account surplus and the rising Forex reserves, the prima facie evidence of currency manipulation. I do not want to deny that the rising forex reserves are a problem that China must tackle, but it is a separate issue from the US economy. The solution isn't RMB appreciation either.

Everybody knows China has a massive savings rate of around half of GDP. It's a simple equation that the current account surplus is equal to savings minus investment. If current account surplus is a problem, it is either insufficient investment or excessive frugality. China's investment is over 40% of GDP. Even casual observers would find China's investment too much. Are Chinese people too frugal? The household income is probably under 40% of GDP, so how could they be the source of the gigantic savings?

The problem is China's political economy. The government sector raises money through taxes, fees, monopoly franchises, and high property prices. Property sales were 14% of GDP. If the price is normalized, i.e., halved, the household sector would have 7% more of GDP. The household savings rate is roughly one third. This would boost domestic demand by nearly 5%, wiping away the whole current account surplus.

The current account surplus is half of the forex reserve story. The other half is hot money and overseas Chinese are the main source of this. Chinese property and the dollar are their most important foreign assets. As the dollar weakens, they have poured money into China, especially into the property market. Hedge funds and other speculators have also poured money in through buying offshore Chinese assets.

I think China's currency is overvalued. China's money supply has exploded in the past decade, rising from RMB 12 to 70 trillion. Every currency has experienced depreciation after a pronged bout of money growth. China's industry has risen tremendously to justify part of the growth. However, a massive amount is in the overvalued property market. When it normalizes, the money flows out and the currency depreciation pressure happens. We should see this within two years.

What is right isn't important for now. What is politically expedient is. Americans want a quick cure for their country's economic difficulties and want to devalue the dollar to achieve it. If it could force China to increase its currency value, then the Yen, Euro, and all the others would go up in tandem. The US, one fourth of the global economy, could export its way out of its problem.

But the others won't follow this program. China cannot move up its currency value too much or it would trigger hot money outflow, collapsing its property market and the banking system along with it. China is between a rock and a hard place. It is trying to achieve a soft landing of its property market by incremental tightening steps while the currency appreciation expectation keeps the hot money from leaving. This combination may support a multiyear gradual adjustment, giving the banking system time to raise capital.

Japan isn't in a position to appreciate the yen much. Its industries have lost competitiveness to Germany and even the US. Its industries haven't had a global hit product for years. Germany and the US auto industries are gaining over Japan's. It's hard to see how the yen could rise significantly. The Bank of Japan is vulnerable to political pressure. It doesn't have a good track record. If it allows the yen to destroy Toyota, Honda, etc., it's hard to see how it could remain independent. Hence, it will resort to QE to hold down the yen.

The euro is surging by default. The European Central Bank seems to still be talking like Budensbank. But, it can't sustain its position through the next sovereign debt crisis. When the euro is high, some euro-zone economy, though not Germany or France, will get into a crisis mode. It may join the QE crowd too.

The UK doesn't need to be persuaded to embrace QE. It is like a big Hong Kong, all about stir-frying stocks and properties. When the bubble bursts, it doesn't have much else to do - devaluing the currency seems the only way out.

Korea is small but always tries to join the big leagues. It is big in the automobile, electronics, and petrochemical sectors. Its government does not need convincing to watch over the exchange rate. Recently, it has been 'investigating' financial institutions for undesirable practices in the currency market.

It seems that nobody wants to appreciate. Most major economies will do something to keep their currencies down. That is checkmate for the US. Without the devaluation benefit on rising exports, QE just leads to inflation, first through rising oil prices. The American people are suffering from declining housing prices and high unemployment. If the gasoline price doubles, the country may not be stable. How would the elite react? Probably more of the same.

The world is heading towards high inflation and political instability. It's only a matter of time before there is another global crisis. The first sign would be a collapsing treasury market. The Fed is controlling the yield curve through its QE program. But, it is irrational for other investors to play this game. The only reason to stay in is that the Fed won't let the market fall. But, the underlying value is evaporating with rising money supply and the inflationary consequences. When all the investors realize this, they will run for the exits and the Fed won't be able to stop the stampede. If it prints enough money to take over the whole market, the people with freshly minted dollars would surely want to convert their money into other assets. The dollar would collapse too.

The world seems on course for another crisis in 2012. The same people who caused the last crisis are still in charge. They'll get us into another. Iceland is sending its former prime minister to court for causing the banking crisis. A worse fate awaits the people who are causing the next crisis.
 
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