jhungary
MILITARY PROFESSIONAL
- Joined
- Oct 24, 2012
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There always a way out of any conflict when you allow the opponent breathing room to deescalated the situation, those island no longer reef and rock under sea tide when placement of Chinese on those artificial island are the de facto of China control of territory, 1st Chinese government will only respond to China population demand. China burned the money and sweat to build those island just to walk away because of the naval threat from the US? That will never happen. Best way to allow China government diplomacy take it course to broker a deal between all claimant that can satisfy all side that will be the best outcome to all party involve. I don't think China will surrender their claim of SCS because of the strategic interests for China to give up their claim.
I am actually not interested in what China can do or what China will do. That's depends on the government of China, I am merely saying a War, nuclear or not, with the US, China is going to end in losing side no matter how you see it.
At the begining, you said China will defend these island f attack, I simply ask how you suppose China to defend these island when attacked? Island defence require a large Navy to make more room for strategic depth, and in traditional military case, you are looking at 4 times bigger than your opponent Navy. To fend off attack at all 4 possible direction (N, W, E, S) and at this stage, US is about 8 times bigger (if not more) than Chinese Navy, there are no foreseeable way China can resupply these island by seas. Hence I ask, how do you suggest CHina defending these island?
They can take care of it diplomatically, they can take care of it internally, they can take care of it via a fight, again, these does not conern me at all.
Since your a military professional, you should know the importance of control the sea lane within your back yard?
Look, what you want is one thing, what you can do is another, and what is the world repsonse would be a third angle.
You can go impose this and that on anywhere in this world, the problem is can you do it. There are 8 entry point to enter and exit the South China Seas.
1.Between Taipei and Chinese Coast at the Taiwan Strait,
2.under Tainam between Philippine and Taiwan in Philippine Sea,
3.Above Luzon at Philippine Seas
4/5. Both entry around Palawan (North and South)
6.South of Bulanbulan Island
7.Java Sea
8. Malacca Strait
China can literally say they want to ban Submarine in South China Seas, but how? Chinese navy is small, it's impossible to patrol the whole SCS 24 hours a days to secure the sea, the only way China can enforce this order (if this actually been made) is to secure all 8 entry points 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. That mean you will need to break it down to 16 group of ships to secure these entry point all day. How many ship China have at this moment? Doing so, will stress the PLAN to extreme and what the PLAN will do is nothing other than going between these 8 entry point to port in China.......
And then they may not be able to detect the sub at all, as most of Chinese navy have is old ship, not many 052D running around as of now.