Raphael
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Terrorism in China: the global dimension | Philip Potter | Comment is free | theguardian.com
This is a troubling development. It looks like the Uighur problem is metastasizing and developing into a regional threat, menacing the stability of all the countries in the neighborhood, especially Pakistan and Afghanistan, but probably Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan too. Their short-medium term goal is probably to help restore the Taliban to power so they can have a safe base to launch a global terrorism campaign. Regional cooperation to extinguish this plague is vital.
China's Uighur militants appear to be getting more sophisticated, with links to Afghanistan and Pakistan. It's time to take them seriously
The knife attack in which six people were injured in southern China is the third high-profile incident at a Chinese train station in a little more than two months. It seems that China is in the grip of a mounting terrorist campaign, with militants apparently able to strike when and where they want.
Last week a railway station in Urumqi was attacked with suicide bombs and knives, with at least three killed and dozens injured. The authorities quickly attributed that attack to Uighur separatists. More jarring, the attack came at the end of President Xi Jinping's trip to that city for the explicit purpose of announcing a "get tough" policy on terrorism.
That incident followed close on the heels of an eerily similar March attack in Kunming. Details are sketchy, but in that brutal episode approximately nine militants wielding knives stormed the city's railway station, killing at least 28 and wounding about a hundred.
Only a few months before, that there was a high-profile attack on the most visible symbol of Chinese political authority – Tiananmen Square in Beijing. In that case, aggrieved Uighurs apparently drove across the country and mowed down tourists at the edge of the square with their Jeep before setting it on fire.
While these incidents have set China on edge, they have received relatively little attention from the outside world. Western analysts tend to draw on the "low-tech" weaponry and comparatively low death tolls to conclude that these are minor incidents. Even specialists often miss the potential for broader international implications, seeing only an internal separatist struggle.
Both of these instincts are wrong. Attacks like those in Urumqi, Kunming and Beijing are serious, and their increasing sophistication indicates a growing threat. If they continue to escalate, there is potential for far-reaching consequences for China and the world.
Despite their reliance on relatively unsophisticated weapons, Uighur militants seem to have already mastered some of the most challenging problems that extremist organisations face. The ability to conduct complex, co-ordinated attacks like those in Urumqi and Kunming are hallmarks of organisational strength. Moreover, while it might seem counterintuitive, restraint is also a clear indicator of capability. Weak movements lash out without discipline and coordination, while strong ones wait for opportune moments and symbolically valuable targets. Last week's attack in Urumqi certainly fits the latter description.
Timing an attack to coincide with Xi's visit to Xinjiang, explicitly to demonstrate his toughness on the separatist question, is a clear act of defiance and it set Chinese social media ablaze before the censors stepped in. The attackers dramatically undermined any remaining confidence that the authorities have this situation under control.
This compounds the concern that militants will be able to project still more violence out of long-restive Xinjiang and into distant Chinese cities as they appeared to do in Kunming and Beijing. This approach makes perfect sense. Terrorism is only effective when the fear that it generates reaches its intended audience, which in this case is the Chinese public. Chinese security forces had, until this recent spate of attacks, been very successful in bottling up violence in Xinjiang and keeping it out of view, but this apparent new capability to time attacks to coincide with symbolic opportunities and strike distant Chinese population centres upsets that equilibrium.
Indiscriminate attacks on civilians always warrant attention, but the evolving violence in China has under-appreciated potential to develop into global concern. When al-Qaida struck the United States on 9/11, it reshaped global politics, culminating in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. As an emerging global power, China's response to its terrorist problem could have consequences that are nearly as far-reaching. It is often forgotten that China's restive Muslim regions border Afghanistan and Pakistan's tribal regions, putting it at the geographic centre of the "war on terror". The withdrawal of Nato forces from Afghanistan will leave a host of problems on China's doorstep.
More troubling still, some of the most militant among the Uighurs have been active at high levels with jihadi organisations fighting in Afghanistan and Pakistan. As the west winds down its presence in Afghanistan, it would be prudent to anticipate that these militants will return their attention to China. When they do, they will bring a great deal of experience and capacity with them. China may then find itself at the mercy of militants operating from safe havens across borders, much as the US did. Only time will tell how China might respond.
All this suggests that it is time to take Chinese terrorism seriously. The attackers have carried only knives and crude bombs, but they and their kind have the potential to reshape both Chinese and international politics.
This is a troubling development. It looks like the Uighur problem is metastasizing and developing into a regional threat, menacing the stability of all the countries in the neighborhood, especially Pakistan and Afghanistan, but probably Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan too. Their short-medium term goal is probably to help restore the Taliban to power so they can have a safe base to launch a global terrorism campaign. Regional cooperation to extinguish this plague is vital.
the logic...
