U.S.-China Decoupling in Electronics Supply Chains

[Beast]

If I say we I mean Germany or most cases Vietnam. No worry in case of Germany we are good citizens. We are loyal to host country wherever we are. We are not the fifth column as seen elsewhere.

German already attain first world GDP, so you are saying Germany shall downgrade to per person USD 10000 GDP in few years time?

however I expect we will reach $10k Gdp per capita and $1 trillion in exports in a decade.

 

[thewayoftheworld]

More....the decoupling between US and CHina will reward 2 other regional hubs in each sphere- VIetnam and MExico greatly...Vietnam and MExico will see a huge increase in production in their countries...Vietnam will serve Asia and mexico with service North America...you are underestimating VIetnam, which isnt good or accurate.

I don't see how Vietnam can replace China. Vietnam infrastructure is really really bad. People are as hardworking as Chinese, but the population is less 1/10th of Chin. I don't see how Vietnam can be competitive as China. The only reason why American companies continued to make money in China is that the Chinese know that American companies products are manufactured in China with Chinese labor and supply chain. So they are OK with American companies getting a profit to keep people working and the Chinese supply chain humming along.

The moment American companies move their supply chain out of China and their product have no Chinese value-add, they will not be able to sell their product in China. There goes the largest market in the world. American can try to serve the rest of Asia (non-China market) with manufacturing in Vietnam and India, but unless the rest of Asia restrict China companies, there is no way for goods produces in Vietnam and India to be as competitive at scale as China. Asia can't deny China access because if they do, the Chinese will make it harder for them regionally and there no much the American can do about economically.

 

[Kai Liu]

What core technology was invented in China? Hsr comes Germany, so ballistic missiles, cars, engines, computer, chip.
But you are right. We are dumb, however I expect we will reach $10k Gdp per capita and $1 trillion in exports in a decade. Thanks to trade war and manufacturing relocation, supply chain movement. Live your dream while we live ours. Win win.

Who invented them? Does it matter? Do you think who invented it when you are writing on your piece of paper or reading books made of paper? As long as we developed the world's best, such as HSR, etc... vn certainly does not have such capability, do you?

Your $1 trillion exporting value prediction is absurd which is not even worth rebuffing, considering China's (a country which has 70 times larger GDP then vn) current exporting value is around $2.4 trillion or something...

And your GDP per capita is currently 1/4 of China's, and your growth rate is not significantly different from ours, therefore, if you think you can reach $10k per capita in a decade, we will have $40 by then... And another way to think about it is compare your current level to China a decade ago, in 2010, you will be ashamed:
~20 million cars sold in China in 2010, by far the world's largest:

ä¸å½2010年汽车éé稳å±å¨çç¬¬ä¸ è¾¾1806ä¸è¾

ä¸å½2010年汽车éé稳å±å¨çç¬¬ä¸ è¾¾1806ä¸è¾,汽车éé

money.163.com

8,358 km of HSR in operation in 2010, by far the world's longest:

截至2010年全国高铁运营里程达到8358公里

截至2010年全国高铁运营里程达到8358公里

china.huanqiu.com

74,100 km of expressway in 2010, only second to USA then. (Today China has more than 140,000, by far the worlds longest)

http://www.zzxingce.com/xingce/tiku/zhenti/20160922/21641.html

There are too many aspects to compare, which I can not mention all of them, e.g., industrial output, urban development (do check how Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Beijing, etc look like in 2010), etc, etc, ...
Gain more knowledge before you boast, otherwise you will make jokes but not funny anymore...

 

[Viet]

Who invented them? Does it matter? Do you think who invented it when you are writing on your piece of paper or reading books made of paper? As long as we developed the world's best, such as HSR, etc... vn certainly does not have such capability, do you?

Your $1 trillion exporting value prediction is absurd which is not even worth rebuffing, considering China's (a country which has 70 times larger GDP then vn) current exporting value is around $2.4 trillion or something...

And your GDP per capita is currently 1/4 of China's, and your growth rate is not significantly different from ours, therefore, if you think you can reach $10k per capita in a decade, we will have $40 by then... And another way to think about it is compare your current level to China a decade ago, in 2010, you will be ashamed:
~20 million cars sold in China in 2010, by far the world's largest:

ä¸å½2010年汽车éé稳å±å¨çç¬¬ä¸ è¾¾1806ä¸è¾

ä¸å½2010年汽车éé稳å±å¨çç¬¬ä¸ è¾¾1806ä¸è¾,汽车éé

money.163.com

8,358 km of HSR in operation in 2010, by far the world's longest:

截至2010年全国高铁运营里程达到8358公里

截至2010年全国高铁运营里程达到8358公里

china.huanqiu.com

74,100 km of expressway in 2010, only second to USA then. (Today China has more than 140,000, by far the worlds longest)

http://www.zzxingce.com/xingce/tiku/zhenti/20160922/21641.html

There are too many aspects to compare, which I can not mention all of them, e.g., industrial output, urban development (do check how Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Beijing, etc look like in 2010), etc, etc, ...
Gain more knowledge before you boast, otherwise you will make jokes but not funny anymore...

Exports volumes don’t correlate to GDP or number of people. HK has huge exports despite little people. Exports don’t even correlate with Hsr nor source of technology. Singapore, Germany, Malaysia, Thailand have very high export volumes. The prediction of $1 trillion in exports for Vietnam is a long term prediction and a realistic goal. I understand you laugh at us. People laughed at you too when you ride bicycles. The government predicts Vietnam exports $340b in 2025 given 5 percent growth rate. That is a very conservative estimate.

Vietnam's export set to hit US$340 billion in 2025

HANOI, August 15 (Bernama) - Vietnam’s export is set to grow 5 per cent annually from 2021 to 2025 to reach US$340 billion in 2025, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT)’s plan on socio-economic development for the five-year period.

www.thestar.com.my

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Exports volumes don’t correlate to GDP or number of people. HK has huge exports despite little people. Exports don’t even correlate with Hsr nor source of technology. Singapore, Germany, Malaysia, Thailand have very high export volumes. The prediction of $1 trillion in exports for Vietnam is a long term prediction and a realistic goal. I understand you laugh at us. People laughed at you too when you ride bicycles. The government predicts Vietnam exports $340b in 2025 given 5 percent growth rate. That is a very conservative estimate.

Vietnam's export set to hit US$340 billion in 2025

HANOI, August 15 (Bernama) - Vietnam’s export is set to grow 5 per cent annually from 2021 to 2025 to reach US$340 billion in 2025, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT)’s plan on socio-economic development for the five-year period.

www.thestar.com.my

Exports also don't correlate to wages or tech level. So what if you export 340 billion? All it means is that 340 billion of wealth pass through Vietnam. How much is absorbed by the Vietnamese people? Who knows.

 

[Viet]

Exports also don't correlate to wages or tech level. So what if you export 340 billion? All it means is that 340 billion of wealth pass through Vietnam. How much is absorbed by the Vietnamese people? Who knows.

Yes thing is as it is. Right now we are just wave earners, making shoes, working as slaves for foreigners. But not a problem at all in regard to the evolution because we are in the pre industrial phase. We are not developed yet. In 5 years thing can change. If we are successfully in exporting our domestic products: cars, smartphones, warships, engines, then we are just one step in way from an export powerhouse.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Yes thing is as it is. Right now we are just wave earners, making shoes, working as slaves for foreigners. But not a problem at all in regard to the evolution because we are in the pre industrial phase. We are not developed yet. In 5 years thing can change. If we are successfully in exporting our domestic products: cars, smartphones, warships, engines, then we are just one step in way from an export powerhouse.

Vietnamese domestic smartphones? warships? engines? lol.

 

[Chhatrapati]

Made in China 2025 looks so real.

 

[Viet]

Vietnamese domestic smartphones? warships? engines? lol.

in 5 years or so
when our products are matured.

 

[Indos]

Exports volumes don’t correlate to GDP or number of people. HK has huge exports despite little people. Exports don’t even correlate with Hsr nor source of technology. Singapore, Germany, Malaysia, Thailand have very high export volumes. The prediction of $1 trillion in exports for Vietnam is a long term prediction and a realistic goal. I understand you laugh at us. People laughed at you too when you ride bicycles. The government predicts Vietnam exports $340b in 2025 given 5 percent growth rate. That is a very conservative estimate.

Vietnam's export set to hit US$340 billion in 2025

HANOI, August 15 (Bernama) - Vietnam’s export is set to grow 5 per cent annually from 2021 to 2025 to reach US$340 billion in 2025, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT)’s plan on socio-economic development for the five-year period.

www.thestar.com.my

Bro, you need to do some thing with your import figure. Your export is huge but your import is also huge, by not making huge surplus means that your GDP is less effected by your trade in calculation term. This is why your export volume is almost similar with your total GDP number. The huge import volume coming from China also show strong indication that Vietnamese are mostly re-exporting goods produced in China.

 

[Viet]

Bro, you need to do some thing with your import figure. Your export is huge but your import is also huge, by not making huge surplus means that your GDP is less effected by your trade in calculation term. This is why your export volume is almost similar with your total GDP number. The huge import volume coming from China also show strong indication that Vietnamese are mostly re-exporting goods produced in China.

No longer the case. Today not that easy to reexport or smuggle chinese goods to the West. The US, EU keep close eyes on our exports. Huge imports from China because Vietnam imports raw materials, machineries, pre finished products and many things more. It’s not like we just repaint and reexport chinese products.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

in 5 years or so
when our products are matured.


View attachment 665163View attachment 665164View attachment 665165View attachment 665166View attachment 665167

phone: chipsets, camera and plastic all imported

ships: engine imported and don't even have VLS

car: engine imported

Vietnam cannot even produce stainless steel, much less maraging steel, titanium alloy, etc.

 

[S10]

Did someone actually suggest Vietnam can replace China? That's like saying Mexico can replace United States.

 

[gambit]

Did someone actually suggest Vietnam can replace China? That's like saying Mexico can replace United States.

No...Mexico and Viet Nam replaces China. The process already begun.

 

[S10]

No...Mexico and Viet Nam replaces China. The process already begun.

You're a funny man, like an amusing clown funny. I tell myself that I'll be richer than Bill Gates someday. I think my fantasy is more realistic.