Two-child policy creates baby boom in China

[Three_Kingdoms]

China's birth rate was already in decline before the one-child policy was enacted.

https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/chinas-one-child-policy-at-30/


http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...as-one-child-policy-shift-its-boy-girl-ratio/

The one-child policy seemed to be a violent reaction to a misunderstanding of statistics -- at that time.

The cheering for this baby boom seems to come from a similar misunderstanding of statistics. There is no certainty that this baby boom will continue, either continuation with an increase or continuation with a plateau. If there is a decline, then it is no longer a 'boom'.

While a 'baby boom' is an uncertainty, what is not certain in terms of numbers and certainty is the continuation of a rise in the elderly. If you cannot force couples to have more than one child, neither can you stop aging. The Chinese government can allow more than one child, but it cannot force people to have sex. If Chinese couples decides to have a voluntary one-child limit, even the 'ghost children, the undocumented 2nd child that everyone knows exists, will not be enough to offset the decades of the one-child policy.

It is silly to have even had the notion of a "forced" sex policy of our Government on our People
The relaxation of a "one child" policy gives the option of having a second child to the free desires of married couples, as simple as that

 

[AndrewJin]

All the best to the dear Chinese people and I hope we do not see the demographic age related problems. Here's just a little observation I made. When Chinese tourists started to visit London in substantial numbers, they had the one child in tow. Now I'm beginning to see older children, with a younger sibling being held by mum.

Yep, quite the new norm among young middle-class family now.

Yes we have to make sure our kids become more successful than we do, so proper upbringing, health, education, these are what we should do.

Nice chart you got here bro, very informative! East Asian here and those in US are equally focused on kids. Parents must prep them ready for better future.

Yep, we should learn from the good part of America's demography, and try our best to avoid the racial divergence/tension in US which will completely change American society and significantly harm the interests of successful racial groups. Learn from the successful stories of non-Hispanic white Americans and Asian Americans, and avoid the failures of the other two groups.

 

[Zsari]

Which country sends it people to gas chambers to curb population growth.
Not having an ideal growth in population is mainly a problem in developing countries where having more kids is a indicator of social security.
Normal norms should be to have kids in limited no. to which you can ensure good quality of life. Hence the development of a good society which helps in the development of a nation. But that takes time and is not easy.
What you are saying is only popular in a communist country or in a dictatorship. I'm not saying its bad but the consensus of the people of the land is not a necessity.

Welcome to the welfare system where having more kids is the source of income from social security. Developing country it is not.

 

[Mista]

Yes we have to make sure our kids become more successful than we do, so proper upbringing, health, education, these are what we should do.

Nice chart you got here bro, very informative. Do you find this pattern similar to IQ pattern? East Asian here and those in US are equally focused on kids. Parents must prep them ready for better future.

A breakdown:

Well, but you also have to consider that the majority of Asian Americans are legal immigrants so those that are accepted in are usually better educated and have higher income.

For example, Indian Americans actually have the highest income and education levels in the US.

Most of them are recent arrivals, with 87.2% of Indian-American adults in 2010 foreign-born. They are the cream of the crop from India who have migrated to the US.


Origins of foreign doctors in the US
Country of Origin Percentage of Total IMGs in US

India 19.9% (47,581)
Philippines 8.8% (20,861)
Pakistan 4.8% (11,330)
South Korea 2.1% (4,982)
China 2.0% (4,834)

Origins of foreign dentists in the US
Country of Origin Percentage of Total IDGs in US

India 25.8
Philippines 11.0
China 3.2
South Korea 3.2
Pakistan 2.9

Look at that brain drain! They make up for such a huge number of doctors and dentists, around 20%-25%! It's a loss for India and a gain for America. The Philippines too.

China has a lesser brain drain problem because of you guys have a better economy than India/Philippines,

 

[Nan Yang]

Never understood why China opted for one child policy. China did have a huge population but allowing only one baby was not the solution.
There are many other ways to curb the growing population but one child policy should be last in the list.

Nothing is perfect. But I rather not have to deal with too many unemployed young people.

Consequences of uncontrolled population explosion.

Thousands of jobless Asians stranded in Saudi


Thousands of jobless Indians, Filipinos and Pakistanis are stranded and destitute in Saudi Arabia after the plunge in oil prices sparked construction layoffs, activists and officials said Tuesday.

Some Filipinos are forced to beg or sift through garbage to survive after going unpaid for months, said Garry Martinez, chairman of the Migrante group which works for the millions of Filipino overseas workers worldwide.

"Some of them have nothing to eat and have to go through the garbage for food," said Martinez.

India said Monday it was negotiating with Saudi authorities to repatriate thousands of its own nationals after they lost their jobs, leaving them with no money to return home.

Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj told parliament in New Delhi she was sending a junior minister to Riyadh after reports that around 10,000 Indian workers had been left to starve.

Indians are among millions of poor Asians working in the Gulf states, where human rights groups say many suffer exploitation and abuses including non-payment of wages.


Source
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/thousands-jobless-asians-stranded-saudi-131219122.html?nhp=1

India demographic divident ?

 

[TaiShang]

Yep, we should learn from the good part of America's demography, and try our best to avoid the racial divergence/tension in US which will completely change American society and significantly harm the interests of successful racial groups. Learn from the successful stories of non-Hispanic white Americans and Asian Americans, and avoid the failures of the other two groups.

China should learn from the US demographically, as it learned from the USSR experience geopolitically, as the horrible race related political-economic situation in the US demonstrates.

I believe the following numbers have strongly to do with the changing demographics of the US:

**

A record numbers of Americans are not in the workforce (over 94 million).

There are 70 percent more Americans collecting entitlement checks than working in the private sector (148 million “takers” vs. 86 million “makers”). This is a fact provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.

20% of U.S. families don’t have a single member who is employed.

More Young Americans now live with their parents than at any time since Great Depression.

Forty-three percent of student loan borrowers aren’t making any loan payments.

 

[Dungeness]

China should learn from the US demographically, as it learned from the USSR experience geopolitically, as the horrible race related political-economic situation in the US demonstrates.

I believe the following numbers have strongly to do with the changing demographics of the US:

**

A record numbers of Americans are not in the workforce (over 94 million).

There are 70 percent more Americans collecting entitlement checks than working in the private sector (148 million “takers” vs. 86 million “makers”). This is a fact provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.

20% of U.S. families don’t have a single member who is employed.

More Young Americans now live with their parents than at any time since Great Depression.

Forty-three percent of student loan borrowers aren’t making any loan payments.

And they say the current unemployment rate is only 4.9%！

 

[TaiShang]

And they say the current unemployment rate is only 4.9%！

The numbers are cooked, definitely.

It is around 15-20%, as many, including Trump himself, argue.

But there is economy. And there is Obama economy. Sort of like Modi's, but more sophisticated.

The image of the US in the 60s when every White looked happy and streets were clean is a thing of the past, and demographics has definitely to do with this.

This election cycle is the make or break for the former prosperous White America. And look how Democrats abuse-misuse minority sentiments. Even Obama himself said every US citizen is potentially racist. And Mrs. Obama said she lived in a house built by slaves of her own race.

The US demographics definitely provides lots of lessons. I am not even alking about European countries such as France, UK and Germany.

 

[Dungeness]

The numbers are cooked, definitely.

It is around 15-20%, as every sane person agrees.

But there is economy. And there is Obama economy. Sort of like Modi's, but more sophisticated.

The image of the US in the 60s when every White looked happy and streets were clean is a thing of the past, and demographics has definitely to do with this.

This election cycle is the make or break for the former prosperous White America. And look how Democrats abuse-misuse minority sentiments. Even Obama himself said every US citizen is potentially racist. And Mrs. Obama said she lived in a house built by slaves of her own race.

The US demographics definitely provides lots of lessons. I am not even alking about European countries such as France, UK and Germany.

68.9% of Americans believe US is on the wrong track, and more than 60% Americans can't come up with $2000 for emergency, and yet, we still believe we have the best system under the sun. Talking about the power of brainwash.

 

[BoQ77]

Why you guys don't follow the thread subject ?
Don't derail

 

[Dungeness]

Why you guys don't follow the thread subject ?
Don't derail

We are discussing the experience and lessons of other countries, so to make sure China do not make the same mistakes on her policy.

 

[TaiShang]

We are discussing the experience and lessons of other countries, so to make sure China do not make the same mistakes on her policy.

I think the two major lessons to be learned is:

Healthy, indigenous quality growth.

Strict immigration control to ensure social homogeneity.

 

[Dungeness]

I think the two major lessons to be learned is:

Healthy, indigenous quality growth.

Strict immigration control to ensure social homogeneity.

One more, if a developing country wants to put the inclusive development high on her agenda, avoid the messy multi party political system that can't produce any result but loud-month politicians.

 

[gambit]

It is silly to have even had the notion of a "forced" sex policy of our Government on our People
The relaxation of a "one child" policy gives the option of having a second child to the free desires of married couples, as simple as that

Just because now Chinese families can have a 2nd child, that does not mean every child bearing couples will start having that 2nd child. Of course there will be a spike in pregnancies, but no social scientist is going to risk damage to his reputation by saying that rise will continue. It is simply too early to tell.

 

[TaiShang]

One more, if a developing country wants to put the inclusive development high on her agenda, avoid the messy multi party political system that can't produce any result but loud-month politicians.

Exactly. China needs to prefer quality demographic and economic growth and scientific public governance.