Twang Clash and Future of Sino Indian relations Trajectory

[Bill Longley]

#tawang #tawangclash #SAG_Analysis
دو ہزار اٹھارہ تک چین کوشش کرتا رہا کہ بھارت اُس کے بیلٹ ائینڈ روڈ منصوبے میں شامل ہو جائے لیکن بھارت نے ہمیشہ منفی رویہ اختیار کیا ۔۔بھارت امریکہ کی مدد سے سپر پاور بننے کے خواب دیکھ رہا ہے ۔تجزیہ کار سوال کرتے ہیں کہ کیا بھارت کی نیشنل پاور اس میعار پر ہے کہ وہ چین کا مقابلہ کر سکے ؟ دوسرا چین اور امریکہ ایک دوسرے کے بڑے تجارتی پاٹنر ہیں جن کے بیچ پانچ کھرب ڈالڑ کی تجارت ہے۔۔ مخالفت کے باوجود دونوں ممالک ایک دوسرے کی ضرورت ہیں ایسے میں بھارت کس مقام پر ہے یہ سوال کافی قابل غور ہے۔

 

[SIPRA]

Minor clashes will keep on occurring; but a major war has extremely low probability, in foreseeable future.

 

[Bill Longley]

Minor clashes will keep on occurring; but a major war has extremely low probability, in foreseeable future.

Agreed but what's the calculation by indian side

 

[Cheepek]

Agreed but what's the calculation by indian side

Something similar

 

[retaxis]

Nothings going to happen. India is Chinas big fat cash cow and source of ultra cheap labor. China makes hundreds of billions selling Indians all sorts of stuff stunting the growth of Indian companies. While business is good China has no incentive to give India another beat down.

 

[Cheepek]

#tawang #tawangclash #SAG_Analysis
دو ہزار اٹھارہ تک چین کوشش کرتا رہا کہ بھارت اُس کے بیلٹ ائینڈ روڈ منصوبے میں شامل ہو جائے لیکن بھارت نے ہمیشہ منفی رویہ اختیار کیا ۔۔بھارت امریکہ کی مدد سے سپر پاور بننے کے خواب دیکھ رہا ہے ۔تجزیہ کار سوال کرتے ہیں کہ کیا بھارت کی نیشنل پاور اس میعار پر ہے کہ وہ چین کا مقابلہ کر سکے ؟ دوسرا چین اور امریکہ ایک دوسرے کے بڑے تجارتی پاٹنر ہیں جن کے بیچ پانچ کھرب ڈالڑ کی تجارت ہے۔۔ مخالفت کے باوجود دونوں ممالک ایک دوسرے کی ضرورت ہیں ایسے میں بھارت کس مقام پر ہے یہ سوال کافی قابل غور ہے۔

@1.00 says "Indian army ki poori koshish thi ki is baat ko chhupaya jaaye", closed after that. Why are your so called analysts so lazy, boring and thick headed?

 

[SIPRA]

Agreed but what's the calculation by indian side

They don't need any calculation. They have no real threat from China. It is China, which feels threatened from a nexus between US and India. If India doesn't cross that red line; there is hardly any chance of a major war with China.

 

[retaxis]

They don't need any calculation. They have no real threat from China. It is China, which feels threatened from a nexus between US and India. If India doesn't cross that red line; there is hardly any chance of a major war with China.

What can India gain from war with China?

China has undisclosed number of thermonuclear weapons that Indians do not have. Chinese nukes are in the megaton range while Indians are kiloton range
All of India water flows from Tibet. If China diverts that water, India turns into a desert overnight.

Not saying it will ever come down to this but Indian leadership know that there is nothing to gain from war with China and everything to lose.

 

[SIPRA]

What can India gain from war with China?

China has undisclosed number of thermonuclear weapons that Indians do not have. Chinese nukes are in the megaton range while Indians are kiloton range
All of India water flows from Tibet. If China diverts that water, India turns into a desert overnight.

Not saying it will ever come down to this but Indian leadership know that there is nothing to gain from war with China and everything to lose.

That is what I believe. That also is, in my opinion, the innate thinking of Indian decisions makers. That is why, there has been no major war, after 1962. But, people become excited, as soon as some clash or skirmish happens, along LAC.

The real issue, however, at hand, is any strong anti-China collaboration, between US and India. That is the red line, which China will not allow to cross, and a major war may ensue.

 

[retaxis]

That is what I believe. That also is, in my opinion, the innate thinking of Indian decisions makers. That is why, there has been no major war, after 1962. But, people become excited, as soon as some clash or skirmish happens, along LAC.

The real issue, however, at hand, is any strong anti-China collaboration, between US and India. That is the red line, which China will not allow to cross, and a major war may ensue.

Indians just want to grow their economy and to be honest they are already at their peak and have slowed down tremedously.

India can get closer to the US and China gets closer to Russia. In the end India knows they can only lose in a war against China because they have nothing to gain. Once US falls off a cliff demographically in the 2040s when whites become a minority, US hawkish policies will also disappear and become more peaceful isolationists and therefore India will be forced to make good with all its neighbors since they have no true backer.

 

[SIPRA]

Indians just want to grow their economy and to be honest they are already at their peak and have slowed down tremedously.

India can get closer to the US and China gets closer to Russia. In the end India knows they can only lose in a war against China because they have nothing to gain. Once US falls off a cliff demographically in the 2040s when whites become a minority, US hawkish policies will also disappear and become more peaceful isolationists and therefore India will be forced to make good with all its neighbors since they have no true backer.

There is a different type of article, written by an Indian journalist, Shekhar Gupta, in "The Print", dated December 17, on China-India Clashes. It is worth reading. It gives a new shade to this conflict. Available on internet.