Turkey records nearly 1.2M live births in 2019 Total fertility rate was 1.88 last year, below popula

[Yankee-stani]

Happiness is not just numbers. Too many people per square mile effects your mental health, environment. Too many young people is recipe for crime, chaos, political instability. You can go on a Youtube tour of Mumbai and see if having so many people equals quality of life. It does not. This apparently is the most expensive home in the world. Frankly I much prefer my humble abode then this $1 billion home.

Oh no. Who let you out of the zoo this time?

Urghh bob and vagene country very urghg

 

[KediKesenFare3]

That's exactly the point. You won't reach Japanese level of development with failing demographics and aging society At this pace, Turkey will become old before it comes rich.

That's the whole point. Why don't you read your own economists/demographers concern published by Turkish universities? I've read multiple papers from Turkish universities detailing exactly what I'm writing here. Want me to link you some?

You made some valid points but you don't know the ground reality in Turkey. We have accepted millions of Arab immigrants to Turkey. The minute you take them into account, our demographic outlook changes strongly. However, if not needed, we could make them leave. From a strictly demographic point of view, Turkey can adjust its policies rapidly.

For now, falling fertility rates are a good thing.

 

[MayaBazar]

You made some valid points but you don't know the ground reality in Turkey. We have accepted millions of Arab immigrants to Turkey. The minute you take the into this number, our demographic outlook changes strongly. However, if not needed, we could make them leave. From a strictly demographic point of view, Turkey can adjust its policies rapidly.

For now, falling fertility rates are a good thing.

India's TFR has been dropping too.

 

[Nilgiri]

Pakistan's fertility rate was higher than India's even when the gap b/w Pakistan and India's GDP per capita was highest in Pakistan's favor.

Uh ok, enjoy that 3.6 TFR you still have thats barely declining.

You seem to not understand what GDP per capita measurements even entailed back then compared to now.

I am to believe India was twice or thrice as better as China in the 60s and 70s?...even though China was consuming 2 - 3 times the total energy we were?....cuz muh cold war GDP per capituh?

The very conversation that TFR should not go too low is already addressed by me now in post 26. Ofc it would apply for Turkey, China as well....dependent on their particular situation. It is a balance in the end for each country....but overall correlation and trend as to better development (having 2 kids per woman on average) is very established thing now.

Pakistan is definitely non-balanced on the issue (and others stemming from it in domino chain). Your (nominal USD) GDP per capita is actually stagnating/declining at low base now for a year...and maybe some more years....in this modern era of measuring it with more referencing....because you were unable to spend/deliver well on things like education and health for couple decades now and also didnt improve your economic fundamentals+attitude for a globalised world since the 90s came by.

Hold on and cling to your muh cold war GDP argument as much as you want to, just like those that hold on to the muh SUPARCO sounding rocket achievement over India in that period too.

Stuck in that time period is big part of this too. You have to learn from failures and correct yourselves big time.

 

[MayaBazar]

 

[MayaBazar]

 

[AUz]

You made some valid points but you don't know the ground reality in Turkey. We have accepted millions of Arab immigrants to Turkey. The minute you take the into this number, our demographic outlook changes strongly.

No it doesn't. Such small bumps don't mean much. Germany also got a little demographic bump from Syrian refugee crisis in 2016. It is already gone lol. Your nation's demographic destiny won't change because you gave refugee to 3 million Syrians (most of them whom will eventually return home anyways).

From a strictly demographic point of view, Turkey can adjust its policies rapidly.

I kind of want to screenshot this line and send it to few professors of mine who work in sociology/demography here in the U.S. I'm sure they'll laugh at this line just like I did (no disrespect towards you. The line is actually funny because demographic trends are hardest to adjust even for mighty resourceful countries spending hundreds of billions of dollars). Turkey will not even have the resources to try to reverse its horrendous birth rates, if the trends continue. Turkish fertility will reach 1.5-1.6ish in 10-15 years at current pace. Best of luck "adjusting" to that (Japan, US, Germany couldn't do it with their massive resources. Sure, Turkey will? Lol).

Immigration is also not a solution to falling birth rates anymore. Google Lyman Stone's article on it.

For now, falling fertility rates are a good thing.

They aren't. Stop saying something false just to make you feel happy. Your economists, demographers, experts---ALL agree that Turkey's falling birth rates are extremely harmful for your nation. Most of these experts are kemalists/secular btw. You think you know more than these Professors who study these things for a living? Please....

Turkish fertility should have stabilized around 2.2-2.3 kids per woman. But it is 1.88 now and falling further. This, my friend, is called disaster happening right in front of our eyes.

You can't change this reality just by calling it "I think its good for now"

 

[Nilgiri]

You can go on a Youtube tour of Mumbai and see if having so many people equals quality of life. It does not. This apparently is the most expensive home in the world. Frankly I much prefer my humble abode then this $1 billion home.

Start comparison of the median average in Indian cities (and future projections) compared to Karachi, Lahore etc?

Its reflecting in the skyline, transport, infra more and more...just what you see in typical roadway or suburban train ride for example in city.

There's a middle class finally growing here:

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/modi-our-best-friend.662844/page-3#post-12268020

India Median wealth per adult (2019) = 3042 USD
India Avg wealth per adult (2019) = 14569 USD

Pakistan Median wealth per adult (2019) = 1766 USD
Pakistan Avg wealth per adult (2019) = 4098 USD

(2019) Adults with wealth less than 10k USD:

India = 78.2% (i.e 22% international middle class or better)
Pakistan = 93.4% (i.e 7% international middle class or better)

Large part thanks to better demographic development and ability to harness more education and health per kid/young-person compared to before. Every unit of even 0.1 of TFR counts big time...given its scaled to millions and millions of people.

This creates more and more inertia to harness for later, and compete for every scrap of industry + investment from the resource/capital rich countries for win-win model first perfected in the East Asian tigers in this neck of the woods. If it aint broke, why fix it?

 

[Path-Finder]

import Nogs from Somalia

 

[AUz]

Uh ok, enjoy that 3.6 TFR you still have thats barely declining.

You seem to not understand what GDP per capita measurements even entailed back then compared to now.

I am to believe India was twice or thrice as better as China in the 60s and 70s?...even though China was consuming 2 - 3 times the total energy we were?....cuz muh cold war GDP per capituh?

The very conversation that TFR should not go too low is already addressed by me now in post 26. Ofc it would apply for Turkey, China as well....dependent on their particular situation. It is a balance in the end for each country....but overall correlation and trend as to better development (having 2 kids per woman on average) is very established thing now.

Pakistan is definitely non-balanced on the issue (and others stemming from it in domino chain). Your (nominal USD) GDP per capita is actually stagnating/declining at low base now for a year...and maybe some more years....in this modern era of measuring it with more referencing....because you were unable to spend/deliver well on things like education and health for couple decades now and also didnt improve your economic fundamentals+attitude for a globalised world since the 90s came by.

Hold on and cling to your muh cold war GDP argument as much as you want to, just like those that hold on to the muh SUPARCO sounding rocket achievement over India in that period too.

Stuck in that time period is big part of this too. You have to learn from failures and correct yourselves big time.

Dude, this thread is about Turkey. Entire posts of mine are about Turkey. YOU brought Pakistan into it for some weird insecurities of yours. Nobody cares about sounding rocket or "mUh SpAcE PrOgRaM!! inDIa ShInnIng SupA PoWa!!! VeDIc NaSA" bullshit of yours. Come out of your perpetual inferiority-complex and your inevitable need for external validation.

You actually agree with me....that Turkey is heading towards a bad spot (1.6ish TFR) and that it would have been much better for Turkey to stabilize around 2.2-2.3 fertility rate. This is my whole argument for this thread. If you want to counter it, you're welcome. Otherwise, you can stfu and cry about your re-hearsed diatribe somewhere else. Please don't respond to me if it is not related to my posts in this thread (which were about Turkey and demography until you bungled in with personal issues of yours)

 

[damm1t]

Hold on... I didn't marry yet

 

[Safriz]

We can fill the gap easy when the time comes,we have more then 10 million Turks all over the world.
A Turk never loses his nationality,he can always claim his passport when he wants,children grandchildren included.
We can also import Turkics like Tatars,Circassians,Kirgiz,Türkmen,Azeri and Pakistani,Afghans etc.

No you can't.
The Turks living in Germany and Holland I seen myself. They been there for generations , and look more local than Turkish.
Don't think they will immigrate to Turkiye that easy?
Albania is next to you and I guess they have blood lines with you guys.
Turkey needs to do propaganda and media warfare to make themselves appealing.
Western countries have been doing just that since WW2 and look how appealing they became to the world.

 

[Yankee-stani]

No you can't.
The Turks living in Germany and Holland I seen myself. They been there for generations , and look more local than Turkish.
Don't think they will immigrate to Turkiye that easy?
Albania is next to you and I guess they have blood lines with you guys.
Turkey needs to do propaganda and media warfare to make themselves appealing.
Western countries have been doing just that since WW2 and look how appealing they became to the world.

There is been increase of re migration from the Turks in Germany back to Turkey since the 2000s, but I think Balkans,Central Asia and Caucausus and former USSR are ideal immigrants tbh

 

[Safriz]

There is been increase of re migration from the Turks in Germany back to Turkey since the 2000s, but I think Balkans,Central Asia and Caucausus and former USSR are ideal immigrants tbh

If Turkey starts a point based immigration for Muslim countries, many will immigrate.
Specially after Ertugrul series and I am not even joking.

 

[Nowshera]

Dude, this thread is about Turkey. Entire posts of mine are about Turkey. YOU brought Pakistan into it for some weird insecurities of yours. Nobody cares about sounding rocket or "mUh SpAcE PrOgRaM!! inDIa ShInnIng SupA PoWa!!! VeDIc NaSA" bullshit of yours. Come out of your perpetual inferiority-complex and your inevitable need for external validation.

You actually agree with me....that Turkey is heading towards a bad spot (1.6ish TFR) and that it would have been much better for Turkey to stabilize around 2.2-2.3 fertility rate. This is my whole argument for this thread. If you want to counter it, you're welcome. Otherwise, you can stfu and cry about your re-hearsed diatribe somewhere else. Please don't respond to me if it is not related to my posts in this thread (which were about Turkey and demography until you bungled in with personal issues of yours)

Bro, as someone with a strong interest in demography its funny seeing people disagree with you as yours is the common stance in the field now. They think you are advocating overpopulation when there is a difference between overpopulation/underpopulation and ideal demographics.